Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ok.

Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

[johnworf]

Bum.

::::sobs::::

[digerd]

S.Herts
Again - like yesterday - the sky looks very promising with hazy sunshine.
But I now don't trust it to stay like this after yesterday's rapid wet turn around.

My newest Camelia is blooming now, just waiting for the others.

[GloriaSmud]

Some lovely sunshine but a bit windy here (Leicester)
The frogs in my pond have decided Spring has officially started and have been busy overnight ~ another lot of frogspawn produced (4th lot this year!)

[Jux]

We have no frog spawn in our pond

It is cold and windy but bright, here in Devon.

OYBBK, are we in for even more rain?

[digerd]

I had 2 large clumps of frog spawn on my pond. But after filling it up, as had gone too far, they both sank downwards, so think they are frozen to death. Might be in suspended animation - forgotten the correct word.

Lovely warm sunny day so far, with a fresh breeze 21 atm.
S.Herts

Frogsporn might yet thaw out and survive?

[digerd]

'frogspawn', but 'porn' is also apt!!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Jux on and off yes more rain, but I think in general nothing too drastic.

More concerning is that GFS trends to colder weather in a few days time and has a pretty cold end of the month in many of the ensemble members.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

No porn in my pond :( but one super huge frog swimming about.

[digerd]

Perhaps he's looking for a late season bit of 'porn'. Not much hope with just one on its own. Unless it's a female looking for a place to lay her fertilised eggs ,

Mine must have happened during that mild week we had last month

Just got back from dogs walk at 3.30, and I was too hot in the sun. 21 degrees in shade still and a nice fresh breeze.
Probably a freak one off day here today.

[digerd]

Too tired to look through my diaries, but remember one year, when it was so cold on May and August bank holidays people put their heating back on. It was only a few years ago.

Are we in for a cold Whitsun, I wonder.?

Another larger Camelia is beginning to open, but the one farthest away from the house, its buds have rotted.

[TheNebulousBoojum]

Beautiful sunshine and warm here in Sussex, ble sky and small wispy clouds. Been like that all day.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Maybe it is a girl frog. That would be cool :) we've only had the pond a year but last year loads of frogs came to visit.

Poor camellia. :( so far so good on mine.

[Jux]

My camellias have come out, but it's a bit windy for them so petals will be blown of quickly. The leaves are sickly looking though

Glad there's not too much rain expected. Shame about the cold. I was just getting used to the idea that I didn't need 4 or 5 layers when I went out!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Jux, have you tried feeding your camellia tea? Left over tea bags or leaves are ace for sickly camellias.

[Jux]

Ooh, will do that. I drink tons of the stuff. Thank you.

[digerd]

S. Herts
The mildest night so far @ 10 degrees. Lots of sun again , but the wind is colder.
Last April night temps were around +2/4 most of the time, and didn't get + 10 until 7th MAY !! Then went down again.

Just checked the frogspawn in pond and one clump has risen to the top. Can't see if they have developed any further , but hopeful they have survived.

My only Camelia planted in the ground the largest and oldest, has one bloom atm.

[Jux]

I need a frog spawn cage to protect it from the fish - if any spawn appears this year

[digerd]

One year the heron took most of my fish, only left the tiddlers, and haven't seen any yet so far this year.

This afternoon dog's walk was warmer than this morning, but only got to 18 degrees in the shade. < warm enough for me in the sun>.

[digerd]

ps
Put my eskimo outfits away yesterday - have I tempted fate?

[GloriaSmud]

Another lovely Spring day ~ we're up to 13.8c atm and the min last night was 9.5c. A lot of the tadpoles in the 2nd clump of frogspawn we had are beginning to look more 'tadpole shaped' now and will probably hatch in a few days. Unfortunately a lot of the ones from the 1st lot have died because of the cold a few weeks ago.

It's amazing what a bit of warmth can do ~ the hedges are beginning to look a bit more green and I saw my 1st butterfly of the year yesterday. I also had to evict a rather drowsy looking bumble bee from our kitchen this morning!

[digerd]

S.Herts
16 degrees today, so going down each day. We have more cloud in SE today than the rest of the country apparently < annoyed face>

And my gloveless hands were really cold from the wind this morning at 11 am.

[digerd]

S.Herts
It got sunnier in the afternoon and temp rose to 18 in the shade and was nice and warm .
The sheep in the field next to dog walk have little lambs now - so cute- and felt even more like Spring.

[ChippingInLovesSpring]

Hello OYBBK are you around??

Just wondering if you've had time to have a look at what we might expect this weekend? Just trying to work out what to do with a guest I have staying and it's all a bit weather dependant :)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Chipping, should be fine til Sunday evening when it might get a bit damp. In fact tomorrow should be lovely.

[ChippingInLovesSpring]

Thank you my lovely - will make 'Sunny Day' plans :)

Thank you