Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ok.

Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

To go with our cold March, today has been the coldest Easter Sunday on record according to the metoffice.

I've managed (after several attempts and a lot some swearing under my breath as I'm not very 'with it' when it comes to technology!) to upload some photos here from our rather snowy holiday in Wales last week.

OYBBK you have just made a very cold woman a little bit happy with your latest post! Now, tell me, is there anything we can do to encourage the NOA to go positive like all blow in the same direction at the same time?

Blimey Gloria, I take it that was north Wales? Wow! Reminds me of a winter holiday I had near Aviemore once, but that was in December!

Hester ~ we were staying on the coast at Porthmadog and did some travelling into some of the more northern bits and the north coast. I was trying to upload a picture of the blizzard we had when we went to Llandudno but it wouldn't upload. Ho that was a cold day ~ I think we managed 3 hours there and decided that was enough for that day!

I've had to issue an urgent forecast for today here sometimes the weather can really take us by surprise.

Thank you OYBBK.

So.

I have read the monthly forecast, with the required pinch of salt. By the middle of April, "they" are saying that the wind may swing round from its current stubborn east and east north east to the north. And this, "they" are saying may be a precursor to it then coming round to a W / SW direction.

Is this the most likely cause of it getting milder? Is it a case, do we think, that any warming will be accompanied by Atlantic lows and the accompanying mizzle and strong wind?

Just trying to decide whether I'd prefer it to stay cold and dry than to disintegrate into mild and wet

S.Herts
The cloud did break up about an hour ago! Hope it doesn't clear in the night to give us well below 0 again.
Wind still bitter. But getting good use out of my winter sales eskimo outfits.

Bought some lighter weight rain jackets and boots in the end of sale for the rainy summer to come, if anything like last year.
My little dog is costing me a fortune, but loving it!

article about what farmers are facing once the snow melts in Wales from the Guardian. Awful for all concerned.

Hester, not necc, we can still have warmer weather with a blocking high if it shifts in the right direction. I need to have a proper look but not tonight, fried brain!

Oh Gloria, that is truly awful :(

Just had 4 days of the most Glorious continuous sunshine in the Highlands (no - I am still not joking....) - coffee in the front garden - kids outside getting some Vitamin D alll wknd [Grin]
Glad all the Easter Holidaymakers up from the SOuth have had some good weather - and the Skiing in the Cairngorms is apparently the best in 25 years (the snow is on the mountains - non - and not a sign of it down where people live!).
Still watching out for wildfires though.......

What a hideous situation in Wales. I wonder if anyone could explain why more wasn't done to try and get as much livestock down off the hills once the forecast had been issued a couple of days before the storm hit. I'd also venture that, if severe winters are becoming more usual, then perhaps sheep farmers need to let the rams in with the ewes later to ensure a later lambing season. I remember the Easter of 2000 on Exmoor when hundreds of lambs died when there was a similar late snowfall, but it wasn't anywhere near as severe as this.

But then, I'm not a farmer obviously.

It's so terrible :(

I would imagine they don't have enough indoor lambing space. I am from NZ, where lambing + snow is very common! And the farmers I know have huge barns designed to have lots of individual space for the ewes.

They do still get caught out sometimes though.

TeWe I'm sure that's it and apparently the tracks have just been too deep with mud too to move machinery around. Pretty hideous.

I guess so.

I wasn't having a go at any farmers, just so we're clear. I was just wondering.

Still think they should maybe time lambing for later though. We got used to years of mild winters in the UK, and now, for the moment at least, they seem to be over.

Anyway, this is Weather not Farming.

OYBBK any signs of what might happen next week? We're off to the New Forest on Friday, the weekend looks alright, wondering if next week will be mild/cold/wet/dry before I pack every item of clothing I own :)

S. Herts
Lots of sun but that WIND is colder than ever.
My newspaper said the cold weather will continue until 11th April, when it should get milder.

Just heard the bad news on TV for tomorrow - snow flurries and even colder and cloudy, in SE.

Just when I am walking 5 minutes in my dancing clothes to the hall at 9am.
< I'm thinking which eskimo outfit can I wear that I can also dance in, until I warm up?>grrrr

The rest of this week and into the weekend looks pretty ok really, just the odd flurry and sunshine here and there.

Next week looks as though it will stay above zero by day but GFS shows it turning really quite unsettled and wet I'm afraid. Mind you, it had this week unsettled in the in up to it, so we shall see, but if you have outside stuff to do these hols I'd choose this week to do it.

Looks like the depressions are going to be let loose at last.

I'd rather it remained cold and dry :(

Fraid so, looks to turn awful on Tuesday.

And I think we should utterly ignore the end of the gfs model run for the 19th April as it shows snow far too far into fantasy model time.

Bugger. I was hoping for a good second week of the holidays seeing as the first week was arctic and too cold for anything much :(

badkitten over here please!

We're going to Edinburgh Zoo next Friday. It's always Baltic there anyway because of the hill, but any idea what the weather will be like?