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Original poster

Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

381 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/03/2013 17:31

Ok.

Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

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johnworf · 08/04/2013 22:59

I'm sure the Beeb weather man mentioned southern (warmish?) breeze for the weekend? Dare I say some high pressure moving in?

Or did I just dream it?

digerd · 09/04/2013 07:18

S.Herts
Just when I need it to rain, and it was supposed to, it didn't!!
+2 in the night so gradually creeping above freezing.

Grey skies atm

Delatron · 09/04/2013 11:56

Yes I have heard there may be a 'warmer' front coming in for the weekend. Think it is bringing rain on Sat but I am crossing my fingers for Sunday (my DS birthday party) would love to be in the garden!. Metcheck is saying 18 degrees for Sun! But I know they are notoriously unreliable.

leesmum · 09/04/2013 21:37

Ohhh are we getting some warmer days??....hmmm must shave legs and sort out chipped nail varnish on toes Blush

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/04/2013 22:38

Sunday is the day, hooray :) some rain or showers perhaps in the west and northern England.

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Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/04/2013 22:40

Bit of snow to get through tomorrow in the Pennines perhaps, but keep your eyes firmly ahead!

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Whojamaflip · 09/04/2013 22:53

OYBBK me again....

I'm supposed to be taking 20 odd Beaver Scouts camping on Thursday night on the oxon/ glos border.

Please tell me the rain is going to miss us and that I'm not going to be dealing with 20 frozen kids on Friday morning Confused

Thanks Thanks Thanks

Delatron · 10/04/2013 07:13

Thanks OYBBK. Can't wait for some warmer weather. Roll on Sun. Party in the garden. Hurrah! Must go find some nail polish for my toes...

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/04/2013 08:40

Whojam, I think you may be plagued with some persistent light rain (heavier early on thursday evening) as your area sits under a wavering occluded front. Not too cold though, above freezing at least! Good luck!

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NeverKnowinglyUnderstood · 10/04/2013 09:14

Can I tell you a very strange thing???? The Sunday closest to my ds1's birthday had been glorious weather for the last 9 years. No matter the weather around it we have been able to have wonderfull parties outside. This year it seems freakier than other years. But hey bring on the sunshine this Sunday

digerd · 10/04/2013 12:17

S.Herts
Emerged from the dance hall at 11.40 to find it sunny and mild.
Has Spring arrived at last and will it last?

Delatron · 10/04/2013 18:21

That's strange Never, let's hope the phenomen continues. Will make a mental note to always have it on the Sunday!

NeverKnowinglyUnderstood · 10/04/2013 20:38

I know delatron, was the same the year he was born, I was sat on a birthing ball in the garden for 4 hours in the sunshine and DH was gardening. A wierd and special feeling.

Delatron · 11/04/2013 18:16

Hmm now it looks as though some reports are saying rain for Sun. Not happy!! I wish 'they' wouldn't get our hopes up with all this talk of 20 degrees unless they are really sure. I was looking forward to DS party being in the garden. ( Not sure who 'they' are).

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/04/2013 20:31

GPS is less bullish about the rain than UKMO, so im hoping that UKMO will back off from the rain.

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Delatron · 11/04/2013 22:51

Thanks OYBBK, every forecast I am looking at is saying something different so good to hear which models are being used. BBC seem very cautious on the temperature compared to other forecasts.

digerd · 12/04/2013 07:05

S. Herts.

Started pouring with rain at 6am and still at it. Hope it's stopped by 10 for little dog's walk as have a vet's appt at 4.30 and must have her thick coat looking clean and dry . Did buy her a onesie rain trouser suit, but couldn't walk in it and made a loud russling noise.

SpottyTeacakes · 12/04/2013 07:18

We were hoping to go to Peppa Pig World Sunday and it's now saying rain, will it change and be 28 degrees?!

Delatron · 12/04/2013 09:43

All the forecasts have changed again. I think we are better off just looking out of the window on Sunday at this rate...At least it will be mild...

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 12/04/2013 09:48

It does look like it will be showery or rainy on Sunday, but may well not reach the east. Temps best in the east of up to around 18c but in the west 10-14c seems quite likely. I've still not given up on it though.

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digerd · 12/04/2013 18:03

S.Herts

Certainly had the April showers todays, despite the sun taking until 2 pm to show itself.
There was a mugginess too which does not become my Asthma. Top temp today was 14. Now 11

johnworf · 12/04/2013 22:38

I'm in the north west (Manchesterish) and it's poured down today. Met office is saying rain for the next 5 days.

Harrumph.

digerd · 13/04/2013 17:08

S.Herts

It started really well this morning with blue sky and sunshine. Not for long though.
Drizzling at 3pm and now raining. Feels colder than yesterday.
11 degrees atm, but dismal and wet.

johnworf · 13/04/2013 22:44

The met office is reporting the south east will be sunny with highs of up to 20 tomorrow. Great. I'm in the north west where we're getting more of the wet stuff Hmm

OYBBK please say they're wrong and we're in with a chance of sunshine too. Pwease.

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 13/04/2013 23:02

More of the wet stuff is likely sadly. Sorry :(

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