I’m really struggling to predict tonight’s 10 qualifiers. I’m pretty certain they’ll include Australia, Austria, Finland, Israel, and Malta. I’d also include Greece, Lithuania, and Luxembourg. So that leaves two more spots.
I’m going to say Serbia will qualify, as they just seem to have a knack of making it to the final (like Ukraine) and his vocals are usually excellent, and they’re the penultimate act.
I definitely don’t see Georgia qualifying. I also think Montenegro and Armenia are going out. I’m going to tentatively add Latvia to the NQ group. Although they might do a Portugal and surprise me.
I’m suddenly having doubts about Czechia - I really like the song, but I’m worried about the staging and vocals. They ought to be the 10th qualifier. But they might be tonight’s Belgium.
Ireland? They’re not in a great place in the running order (3rd). But it is very Eurovision, and in a televote-only semi they might make it. Tonight’s Iceland if you like.
In a similar vein, Denmark might be tonight’s Norway. Although with better vocals and less impressive dancing. But it’s so repetitive, and has fallen massively in the bookies odds since rehearsals started.
So for the 10th qualifier I’m going to go with… Ireland. For now. With Czechia and Denmark out.