On polls. I was browsing GB news earlier. And GB news has a thing of having old stories in the side banner or under. This was there.
Nigel Farage would WIN key seat in general election as he admits he's 'seriously' considering standing - eye-opening new poll (gbnews.com)
And the story is about a poll in Clacton indicating he would win there... before he decided to pack his carpet bag and " move" there.
Looks to me like Farage is a fan of polls. Indeed, at the end of that article, Farage is quoted saying -
"I don’t suppose that is the only place that would produce that result and I have to make a huge decision about what I want to do."
"Do I want to be an influencer … or do I want to put my kit on again and get back on the pitch? I haven’t decided, but I have to say to you that this poll does make the balance of probabilities towards getting back on the pitch stronger."
Note the last bit - "....but I have to say to you that this poll does make the balance of probabilities towards getting back on the pitch stronger."
The Story is dated Jan 2024. The 5 mill was paid in April 2024. I wonder if that "gift" helped persuade him.
Now, an interesting thing is a company called Survation done that poll. But GB news does not link to it. More on that later.
But anyway. Farage likes polls. But the article does say this,
"A survey commissioned by Arron Banks, a ex-Ukip donor who also played a key role alongside Farage during the Brexit referendum, suggested that the GB News presenter would easily win in the constituency of Clacton in Essex."
Oh. So Banks paid for it. He must like polls too.
The GB news article also says "The new poll claims that if Nigel Farage was to stand in Clacton at the next election he would win 37 per cent of the vote, beating the incumbent by ten percentage points."
And in the interest of fairness, and to show my thinking here, although GB news did not link the poll. I found it anyway. And I downloaded it in excel format. and it is all totally pukka. Seems that way to me anyway. Of course, the download does not contain cell formula, but all looks totally fine. I am not a pollster, but there is nothing that jumps out as being off. But hey, Clacton did vote 73% leave.
So it is a fair bet the poll would say what it did. And if it did not, no matter, the person who paid for it (Banks), did not need to publish it.
Link to poll data download page.
Survation | 2024 | Survation