Teachers or those in the know - predicted grades??

[followtheyellowbrick]

So, new to this and DC is getting nearer to the stage of having to think about uni applications.

I was somewhat surprised to learn that uni applications are not always based on mock exams in Y13 but on 'predicted' grades but that how these are produced seem to vary from school to school.

Looked online and found an interesting study on teachers' predictions of their students' A-levels, and it seemed that the factors taken into account, in order of most to least were: Mocks, Commitment, Quality of Work, Student Interest and Other Assessments. Intriguing that the fairly 'subjective' Student Interest and Commitment were that high!

In your experience, what do you use to make predicted grades?

At my place, we produce predicted grades by the end of Y12, based on end-of-year-12 exams. Then if any student is unhappy, they get one optional chance at the start of Y13 to do another exam (predicted grade can only go up, not down, as a result of this). If a subject teacher wants to give a different grade on the basis of performance/interest/etc, they have to clear it with HoD and Head of Sixth Form.

But every school is different!

At my son’s school, the end of Y12 exams are the main determinant - they have been told they won’t get predicted lower than these results. Apparently they have UCAS guidelines they will follow - but haven’t done any research as 🤞he will do well in his exams.

We will find out the predictions on the 30th June and once set they will not be changed. There is a lot of variation from school to school.

As far as I can tell predicted grades are pretty subjective (and this is part of the problem as different schools have different attitudes). On UCAS website it says “A predicted grade is the grade of qualification an applicant’s school or college believes they’re likely to achieve in positive circumstances.” To me this means it shouldn’t just be tied to yr12 mock results?

The frustrating thing is that some universities will mainly offer to students with predictions above their stated offer. So for example you won’t get an offer unless you have A star AA but the offer will be AAA. So I don’t know how many schools inflate predictions for this reason? R

Retired teacher/head of 6th form here.Inflating predicted grades serves nobody well, though in my experience students/parents may ask teachers to do this in order to secure an offer. However, our policy has been to err on the side of positivity where we can as statistics show that most candidates push up their grades from year 12 into 13.
Predicted grades are not subjective but are based on an overview of, here in Wales, AS results, ongoing student performance in tests and exam practices marked against exam board assessment criteria and a knowledge of the students' individual effort and capabilities in all areas of their A Level or other courses.

Students are strongly advised to discuss their predicted grades with their teachers before the UCAS application is completed to ensure the most appropriate universities and courses are chosen. Guidance and advice is always available in my experience.

I teach A-level, and level 3 BTEC. For BTEC, it's easier as by the time you need to predict grades, you have some known results in the bag. We have a spreadsheet we use- put in achieved grades and best guesses for Y13 units, and then predict what this comes out with.

For A-level, it's more challenging. Using Y12 mocks would be objective, but for some students this doesn't always feel fair. Some students are thrown by going into the hall for the first time, or aren't feeling their best on the day, or it's a paper that doesn't suit their skillset (we only get time for one paper during mocks, instead of the 3 they'd sit at A2). Therefore, in some cases I will predict higher than Y12 mocks. I wouldn't predict lower unless there were substantiated claims of cheating, or similar.

For students who aren't applying early entry, if they make a significant improvement at the start of Y13, that is taken into account. For those who want to apply to medicine/Oxbridge, they get a final chance at the very end of Y12 to sit another paper if they want to improve their predicted grades.

In general, I try to be realistic but optimistic- i.e. "what do I think this student would get on a good day?". Not every student will have a good day during the exams.

We don't exactly inflate for these reasons, but our data shows candidates with an A prediction tend to stand a higher chance of getting med/vet med/dentistry interviews (obviously providing they meet all other criteria). So, sometimes we will have a conversation about whether we could predict them an A for one subject.

Mock exam
General classwork
Attitude to learning

@Hogofogo I think there should be conversations with students before they even sit their GCSEs about future success. Good GCSE grades lead to good A level grades and it should be made clear by A level teachers that if you come in on say a grade 6 for science where that is likely to lead grade wise for A level. Also what difference it may make to come in on a grade 8.

This then leads onto university entry grades; they are the lowest grade they will take someone in on. There are two ways to look at it, either this motivates a student to spend some time every day improving their grade using teachers, online resources, revision guides, YouTube, peer on peer learning or they apply for university courses where the grade is lower than their predicted grade. My sons knows he is up against children whose parents pay tens of thousands for their education and he has a friend who has a tutor for all his A level subjects to keep him at the 4 A star predicted grades.

As to predicted grades, Ds's sixth form predominantly use year 12 exams which for Ds are next week. They also look at the end of topic test grades too to give a wider picture. They have been sitting these throughout the year. We have had 3 reports from school, they include attitude to learning, whether additional study is completed and both positive and negative behaviour comments. College tell us that the most successful students are the ones who turn up, engage in lessons and complete additional study.

School I know bases grades on 2 sets of Yr12 exams mostly, but bears in mind other work too.

They will look to be positive but won’t predict something there has been no evidence of.

Due to grade inflation, it seems they will be more generous with top grade (A star) predictions now, whereas before Covid were more reluctant.

Students are told before the end of Yr12 so they can tailor some uni visits and their thinking process to what is realistic. I think that if they are very disappointed they can do a re-sit or something else and further. Consideration is given before grades are finalised in Sept. I’ve heard from parents though, that some get some movement until UCAS goes off. But I’ve also heard that they are often the ones who don’t meet their offer.

Ive heard it said that over 80% of predicted grades are wrong….mostly too generous. Universities know this, but worth bearing in mind.

Thanks for some insightful answers on here. So, unless you were in the know, you wouldn't necessarily realise that Y12 is almost more important than Y13 for predicted grades??
Bit of a crazy system that you can't apply to courses unless you have the predicted grades already in October (for some courses)!!

Pretty much everything about the university application system is crazy, but there's too much inertia to change it, it seems!

I don't think it's uncommon - but I talk to my students about predictions from the outset. They know how we're going to come to those predictions and what that means. What I won't ever do is predict the grade they "need" if I don't think they've got a chance.

Remember predicted grades are what a student is likely to get on a good day. It is deliberately optimistic. It is based on “typical” tracks, so a student who gets a high B at the end of year 12 would typically improve to get an A.

But it is a rough science, no student is “typical” and so much can change between setting the predicted grades and the actual exams. Statistics work on large numbers not individuals.

This is where the imprecise part comes in, and yes interest does play a part. If they are interested and reading around the subject they are more likely to gain higher grades and put the work into improve their grade.

@followtheyellowbrick yes basically for many the year 13 mocks are a practice but don’t feed into UCAS predictions at all as they’re too late.

This is fascinating. Of course, there are plenty of students who are motivated but may not show it (unless, of course, it's in English or similar where they can show they've 'read around the subject'). Again, it seems fairly subjective then? No wonder (and this is not a dig btw) some of the kids of teachers seem to know what to do. It's a bit like in the work place, I suppose where you need to be 'seen to do the right things'. That's not necessarily bad in itself, but just like in the workplace, you do often miss the diamond who are quietly working away.

To me, the most logical thing would be (if you have to base it on precited rather than actual) to have it based on end of topic tests, ongoing work in the class room (not HW - too much room for cheating - the amount of parental input I've seen/heard about is insane) and mocks. Predicted grades to be submitted by March (enough time presumably in these digital times to (a) mark the papers and (b) for the universities to assess).

Much fairer all around. And not dissimilar what many countries have been doing for ages.

apologies for typos/predictive!

Students are told frequently, that their work in Yr12 will determine their predicted grades for UCAS. Honestly, it’s not a message they don’t hear very frequently.

Students might claim not to have realised that yr12 would be key, but to be honest, what they mean is that they wish they’d worked harder. Some colleges or schools do an assmebly with yr13 students talking at the start of the year - saying they are sending off their UCAS and their predicted grades were determined by yr12 work and if they could tell their yr12 self something they hadn’t grasped, that would be it. Sometimes students can hear it better from other students rather than teachers who say it constantly.

Likewise, students are usually told possible outcomes from their GCSE starting point. It’s not a surprise that someone starting with a 6 is much less likely to get top grades than someone who started with 8/9. It’s why subjects have minimum entry requirements to try to ensure that those who don’t have any chance of success don’t start…but of course the closer you are to the minimum entry requirement, the more likely your GCSEs suggest you’ll be getting one of the lower grades at A Level.

It is true though that one moment they are getting GCSE results and just starting out in 6th Form and the next minute they are needing to think about the next stage and choose subjects and unis. Yr12 really does go in a flash and thinking about the next stage is needed. This drifting along with no sense of what’s coming next or how each thing at the current stage impacts the next stage is just a bit daft really….but lots of teenagers and parents don’t really engage with it.

End of year exams, topic test, classwork and attitude all play into the predicted grades.

I teach a stem subject. You get to know your students pretty well in Alevel and you can tell you reads ahead or around the subject. Not because they tell you or make a show of it, but by the depth of their answers and making connections.

Remember the teachers are rooting for the students to do well and tend to look for positive evidence.

I'm sure the message gets out there once they start Y12, but why not sharing it before? I honestly didn't realise (but then I didn't grow up in this country, but not sure my DP fully grasped it either, and is from the UK). It does seem daft, though, that it should be based on the first year of a two-year course.

Must be better ways around this?

I can now see why the contextualised offers are needed. I have always been supportive of them (and I have DC at private), but even more so now!

OP, as previous poster says, the teachers are rooting for the kids. They DO tell them this is how it all works and they are reminded many many times.

The timescales are that Uni applications are made from Sept until Jan of yr13. The application involves a personal statement from students, a reference from teachers and the predicted grades. Unis will start making offers from when they receive the first applications and finish by May.

Currently, yr12 students willbe thinking about possible subjects and starting to go to some Open Days. They will think more over the summer and be working on their applications over the autumn term. This is the timescale of how it works. Schools or colleges will have explained this to both students and parents in some format.

Honestly, it really will not be the first time your teen has been told Yr12 is important or the timescales for this stuff.

Approximately half of my current y12 came from 11-16 schools. With the best will in the world, teachers who don't teach post 16 aren't going to be overly concerned with UCAS predictions.

What info would you like shared before yr12 that you think hasn’t been shared that’s vital?

Definitely: mocks, then other assessments, homework marks, effort and attitude.

I have already spoken to my year 12s several times about the importance of their upcoming mocks.

As others have said though, some may have a bad day but have done very well in a previous mock.

Not sure when, as Y11 stressful enough probably for them, but I don't think any of the kids in Y11 now (unless they have insight/older siblings) would know that Y12 is that important. Could be quite useful to know in the summer before Y12. Not for 'cramming' but just to get in the zone and be ready to run from day 1.

I understand that personal statements as they are will now longer be used (from 2024?), but I think they should be scrapped altogether. Certainly a real barrier for those who don't come from a background where perhaps they're the first to go to uni.

I think it should be based on (objective data):
End-of-topic tests
In-class assessments
Mocks

If so, my guess is that predictions would be more accurate and valid and, hopefully, not result in the scramble that seems to be the case come results day.

Btw, I have not in any of this blamed teachers. It is the system I have an issue with. Given the quick turnaround with bringing the NHS vaccine booking system online and available to the population, I can't believe there is not a way to make the system for uni applications more streamlined and fair (i.e. based on actual results). I realise it would be more complex than that but still....

At dd’s school it was made clear to both parents and students at the beginning of year 12 that ucas predictions would be made on the basis of year 12 examinations.