Teachers or those in the know - predicted grades??

[followtheyellowbrick]

So, new to this and DC is getting nearer to the stage of having to think about uni applications.

I was somewhat surprised to learn that uni applications are not always based on mock exams in Y13 but on 'predicted' grades but that how these are produced seem to vary from school to school.

Looked online and found an interesting study on teachers' predictions of their students' A-levels, and it seemed that the factors taken into account, in order of most to least were: Mocks, Commitment, Quality of Work, Student Interest and Other Assessments. Intriguing that the fairly 'subjective' Student Interest and Commitment were that high!

In your experience, what do you use to make predicted grades?

That's useful to know about the expectations and glad you make it clear to your students.

Re percentages, I suppose I was hoping with AI etc there could be a system where kids are ranked based on their scores, allowing for the differences in boundaries which varies from year to year. Realise this is not an easy task but, given what was achieved during Covid with NHS digital and Covid vaccinations etc and how quickly that took off, I guess I'm thinking 'if there is a will, there is a way'.

Don't Y13s normally finish after their exams in June? With A-levels exams May-June that would leave March, April and possibly a few weeks in May to teach the remaining syllabus (I'm assuming that much of this time nowadays is dedicated to revision/exam technique anyway rather than teaching the remaining syllabus only?).

But why not test on what is taught up until February. Nothing stopping schools teaching the remaining syllabus (without a national test on this very small part)?

thanks interesting to have the insight. I didn't mean that parents engage with you or the school, but many parents make sure their kids turn up to certain things or enter competitions or even reply on their emails...it really happens. A lot! Or parents writing essays (for GCSEs even) and having their hand in a lot of the school work etc etc.

I'm a big believer in supporting but not taking over so I've never insisted DC does any of those 'extras'. But then I didn't know what I know now!

How does that work for Oxbridge applicants whose applications have to be in well before Christmas?

And how can students plan open days etc if they don't know what their predicted grades will be till that late in the day?

I'm not sure why they have to be in so early but I suppose it's because it's on predicted rather than actual results and due to the large potential pool of candidates they assess each year.

If it was on actual results, could Oxbridge applications not be submitted at the same time? Maybe they should have more entry tests such that they have for many disciplines already - this could still all take place during Autumn. Top ranked candidates then get through to interview based on what they actual got, and so the universities would interview a smaller pool of candidates, removing the necessity for early applications?

OP you're not going to change the system, your DC has plenty of time to get their head round it. It is fair in the sense that it applies equally to all.

There is plenty of evidence that attainment in year 12 along with attitude to work during that year are good indicators of what the outcomes will be.

You can tell your DC not to rest on their laurels in year 12 the rest is up to them really.

Have you met many 17/18 year olds? Not many will still come in and study for the part of the course that hasn’t been finished and isn’t examined or counts for anything!

For terminal exams in Feb you would aim to finish teaching by Christmas break, so only 4 terms of teaching rather than 5. That is a big reduction.

The majority of students do manage to negotiate the system and for those few who either miss their offer or do better than expected then there are procedures in place with clearing and reapplying.

The thing is OP that ‘mocks’ are set by the school /college and therefore are not an objective assessment across the country.
GCSEs while a useful indicator, are obviously a measure of how students performed at 16 and in those exams, so don’t automatically tell the whole story of how students might perform against the more challenging A level syllabus.
So gcse results and mocks are both useful but something else in addition is needed. Teacher opinion possibly, based on how the student performs in class, homework and asssessments

No and maybe mocks should be. But surely, mocks are more 'objective' than teacher predictions?

In many other countries they don't have a 'final exam' where the school year ends such as here. They seem to cope, no?
Isn't that the case anyway with many who get unconditional offers?

No, don't expect to change the system at all. And I've learnt a lot on here. Forewarned for what is to come!

Not necessarily. I just pointed out that the school sets the mocks. They should be carefully chosen, but you could for example give a mock based on what you know the students have studied.
why are you so afraid of the teachers opinion?

Most teachers are keen to spot good work and potential in their students, and give them credit for that.
The teachers subjective opinion of a sixth form student May well be very accurate.

I'm in awe of teachers but I suppose I come from a country/system where applying to uni is completely blind and based on scores/grades/exam results only. Need to get used to this system, that's all!

Your child could apply to uni after they have got their A level results. That might suit them and you better, and make you feel as if the process rests on a firm logical foundation. Why not choose to do that.

DD was predicted A⭐️AB. After some negotiating with her teachers (begging really) the grudgingly predicted her A⭐️A⭐️A.

In the event, she achieved A⭐️A⭐️A⭐️. Looking at her raw scores, they were high. She had achieved them comfortably.

Why were her teachers so miserly with her? Well, I am not sure, but she went to a very academic, private girls’ school. In a situation where 85% of all grades will be As or A⭐️s, and the large majority of those will be A⭐️s, it would not be unreasonable for teachers to predict all A⭐️s for 90% of the class. But only 40% of the class will get all A⭐️s. The teachers must struggle to guess which girls will get all A⭐️s and which will stumble on the day. All are so close. If teachers give reasonable, but optimistic predictions with everyone on the A / A⭐️ boundary, they will end up over predicting A⭐️s by a huge margin. They don’t want that in the papers. It reads a lot differently than a school with a wider spread of grades over-predicting the same percentage off of a base of mostly Bs or Cs.

The lack of trust of teachers' professional judgement here is very very depressing.
Having retired from the profession last year it makes me sad for those teachers who do their best for the students who are applying to university.
Teachers work hard, in the current system we have, to provide their students with the chance to get a place at university.
When teachers ' judgement was replaced with exam board measures during COVID that wasn't good enough (it wasn't) and now we are back to the norm and that isn't good enough.

Ultimately, students get into university on their own merit. It's tough, it's not always what student, parents or teachers expect or may want but the outcome is the result of the students ability and effort.

References are positive, predicted grades are based on holistic overview. It's what we've got.

Very interesting but in a way makes for sad reading. And demonstrates why the system really doesn't work. Interesting observation about being in a highly academic school - hadn't considered that teachers have a tough job as they can't be seen to predict A* for a majority, even if perhaps it would be deserved?

Hadn't realised that for the initial offer, unis expect higher predictions than what is even set for the course - that really doesn't make sense!

Teachers have a tough job but it's the system that really isn't fit for purpose.

Agree OP

DC is predicted mainly 8/9s and is working hard and is diligent but really hadn't realised that the predicted were not based on the mocks. Stupid, I know, but I had thought that predictions would mainly be based on GCSEs and mocks. Silly me! :)

But what did you base that on? Is it what your DD's school says is its policy? And assuming that you know that university applications are made through UCAS, the UCAS site gives details of how the system works overall.

Utterly bizarrely, I know - and I haven't actually looked at any other school's websites for comparison - DS2's old school (state grammar) has a statement wrt the prediction of A level grades in the publicly accessible Sixth Form documents on its website. Literally anyone with internet access with the slightest curiosity about the sixth form at the school can have a look through the Sixth Form Admissions section and find it.

Although to be fair, given the way that the statement is phrased, I have a strong suspicion that its secondary purpose is to warn whiny students and pushy parents that protestations re 'needing' predicted grades not supported by the school's policy will fall on deaf ears.

Under-predicted grades on the order of what happened to @missinglalaland ’s DD are very concerning, over-predictions almost equally so. The former can close off valid pathways to a better life for able pupils; there is evidence that children from disadvantaged backgrounds are the most under-predicted.

This is why I support a post qualification application process even with the disruption it would bring.

Yes, I'm curious and hence posted on here to try to find out how predicted grades in general are arrived at and whether there was a set method used by most schools. Seems not.

As mentioned, DC not at Sixth Form yet but we've already started doing a bit of research and although I'd looked at UCAS before hadn't honestly realised that Y13 exams/mocks were not included in these predicted grades. Our school only mentions 'predicted grades are based on target grades' or something like that from publicly available info. And many other schools say similar. So still not real insight into the granularity of it all.

I would hazard a guess that lots of parents who have not been through the process (and whose kids are not yet at Sixth Form) - or are in the work of education - would not know, so I think it can be a bit condescending to assume we're a bit thick for not being aware. As I say, DC not at Sixth Form yet. I'm not a neurotic person and am not worried - and have the privilege/luck to have kids at private school where there might be more room for amending predicted - but, like many on here, I am naturally someone who likes to challenge the status quo.

Yes, agree. And I can definitely see how those from disadvantaged backgrounds are likely to be most negatively affected.

I agree that the teachers are in an impossible situation. I wouldn’t want to try to predict.

The under predictions hurt individual students the most. But if the predictions aren’t under 50% of the time then there is a one way ratchet that inflates predictions.

With modern IT systems, I wonder why we cannot compress the process so that offers are made against actual grades.

The under prediction was painful for DD. It knocked her confidence and self esteem. We are a stable, secure family and she is fine. She is at a good uni doing very well. What if she had been in more difficult circumstances? It would have been devastating for a student with less support.

I don’t think you need to know how predicted grades are determined before they even join sixth-form. Since it does vary by each school, best to wait until the course actually starts. It shouldn’t be a shock though that it is best to work hard throughout both years to achieve the best possible grades.

For us, first term of Y12 was about setting in and adjusting to changes, 2nd term think about courses and super curricula stuff and 3rd term work hard for end of years/predicted grades.

The system isn’t perfect, but it is what it is.

I think you would like the Australian system. I do know many details (married to an Australian who also doesn’t think much of our system) but you end up with a percentile ranking with others in your cohort. Other than medicine and a few other courses, you meet the minimum percentile ranking for a course and you are in!