Teachers or those in the know - predicted grades??

[followtheyellowbrick]

So, new to this and DC is getting nearer to the stage of having to think about uni applications.

I was somewhat surprised to learn that uni applications are not always based on mock exams in Y13 but on 'predicted' grades but that how these are produced seem to vary from school to school.

Looked online and found an interesting study on teachers' predictions of their students' A-levels, and it seemed that the factors taken into account, in order of most to least were: Mocks, Commitment, Quality of Work, Student Interest and Other Assessments. Intriguing that the fairly 'subjective' Student Interest and Commitment were that high!

In your experience, what do you use to make predicted grades?

My dd is in Y13 and doing A-levels right now. I don't understand the perspective that Y12 is more important.

I mean, yes, predicted grades were obviously important in terms of securing interviews etc. DD is doing medicine so needed high predictions to even get a foot in the door. But she still needs to get the actual grades in the end to fulfil the conditions of her offer, so working hard in Y12 is only one part of the picture.

I would accept the argument that Y12 is possibly vas important - though I think that's debatable actually - but I certainly don't agree that it's more important at all. As for schools doing more to tell kids that they need to put the effort in during Y12, I don't know...I was never really one for teaching my dd to be strategic about when to work and when not to bother, I just emphasised that she should always do her best regardless. It has served her pretty well to date.

I'll try to address some of your points.

"If based on teachers' knowledge of the student, it would suggest that, unless you are very unhappy or in the wrong school for your ability, it would be better to stay where you are and where teachers know you." Ds's school does not have a sixth form so he could not stay on.

Scrapping the personal statement isn't happening, it is an amendment to the free form format. Ds1 is already at uni, he was predicted and got 4 A stars, high grade GCSEs and so the personal statement is where he could talk about his love for his subject which for him started back in year 10. If there is no personal statement and he applies to a course that has a 5 to 1 application rate, how does the uni choose who to offer to if they all have the same grades? 8s and 9s are considered the same for uni. Ds was an early entry (Oxbridge) and so his UCAS predicted grades were based on year 12. Deadline is 15th October, his application was submitted at the start of October. There is no time to test again before that application goes in.

Right from the start of year 7 DC's school told them, do your best, more doors open, more opportunities are available and we want you to have choice. Basically that their job is school and learning and achieving the best for themselves. This ramps up when they get to year 9. Year 12 we had parents' welcome evening, same speech was given to the students in assembly. This year matters, why it matters. The college provides support whether that is uni applications or jobs/apprenticeships. They have future focus mornings, Ds2 like Ds1 is also on a competitive entry track ie predicted high grades for A levels. They are continuously told year 12 is important. They even have intervention if you are not doing enough work, they support the children to complete the work rather than negative consequences.

Contextual offers are for children who are in care, have been in care, are a carer, disabled, on free school meals, first to go to uni or live in an area where moving on to higher education is low. It is usually a 1 grade drop or the very most 2 but the uni has to believe they are capable of doing well on their course. Not all unis offer it and if the uni does offer it, not all courses at that uni offer it. It is meant to level out the playing field.

"Yes of course but if you're predicted e.g. BBB, you can't apply to a course that requires AAB. Perhaps you SHOULD be able to apply to whatever and then, once the results are in, if you manage to hit the grades you should be accepted." But that doesn't take into account the applicants who were predicted AAB or higher and did achieve those grades. There are only so many places on courses. Entry grades are the lowest they will take someone in on, so AAB entry will see applicants with A star A star A applying. The UCAS process is a legal contract, if you get the grades specified on our offer we will accept you onto our course. Hence the massive scramble in 2020 when there were far more applicants with the specified grade than spaces on the course, plus first year accommodation. Usually some are culled due to the exam grade curve being applied.

@Phineyj So good to come across an economics teacher. I agree post exam applications would be better but logistically I don't know how that would work without a massive shift in marking, results and uni start dates. My son took economics as a new subject for year 12 and absolutely loves it. He is applying to uni probably as a pure economics course which he knows is incredibly popular. He is currently debating the whole BA/BSc course options as he is studying maths and further maths A level but considering BA due to the unis offering it.

We've generally told out 6th formers multiple times how predictions are formed and during the application process we're also quite clear to Y11s what the jump is between GCSE and A Level (eg if you're coasting along at a 6 or a 7 in GCSE maths and not applying yourself, you're unlikely to be getting an A in A Level Maths or if you don't like writing essays and are planning on taking English Language because you got a 5 in it and aren't sure what else to take, that's unlikely to convert to a strong A Level).

Like other posters, I'll never predict a student a grade I don't think they have a realistic chance of achieving.

Every year I've had someone come and tell me what they "need" me to predict and every year I have a handful of middle attaining students who get unconditional offers so stop working because they already have their place at university.

The system is a joke in my opinion.

OP,

If I understand you correctly, you are proposing that PGs come out by, say, March of Y13? This is intriguing, and as a former admissions tutor I think you have suggested some good reasons for the change.

Pupils cannot really apply to university without a good idea of their PGs. The application cycle would begin around 1 April earliest. Interviews and offer holder days would take place during the summer.

I think that for Home students it could just about be made to work, at the expense of compressing the major portion of the admission team’s workload into a few months. This has positives and some challenging negatives. But the real sticking point is that I am not sure that Overseas student visas could be processed before the start of term.

Admissions tutors know that a post qualification application system can be made to work. It is much simpler. The issue is that it involves a certain amount of inconvenience for everyone.

Thanks, yes exactly. I do realise it would not be ideal for overseas (and appreciate the reliance of many UK universities on these students) but essentially a system should be fit for purpose to those currently residing in the country first and foremost.

Presumably less resources (time and money) would have to be devoted to applications and the money could be used more effectively elsewhere within the university. If so, perhaps there would be less need for relying on high-paying overseas students?

I still think the personal statement and school reference are quite dated elements of the application process.

If you do need differentiation - with so many students receiving 3 x A* etc, presumably you could look at % achieved in the exams (as opposed to simply A/A/A/B etc for A-levels to provide an aggregate A-level % score followed, if needed, by the same in GCSEs i.e. % in exams = aggregate total score) as a decider. Oxbridge (and some other unis) do have other entry tests that could still take place and be used, as could interviews (again very few unis use these).

I'm fully aware of what contextualised offers - but thanks for some on here explaining them - (although I know they do vary in how arrived at as I understand) but basing it on grades only, would not mean you can't give contextualised offers but the inequality around personal statements (or short answer version that is proposed and due to come in) and references would be negated.

Then all we need is a proper overhaul in making sure of a standardised system for exam boards and GCSEs - job done! ;)

I still think the personal statement and school reference are quite dated elements of the application process.

I think that this totally depends on the situation.

If you have a child, like mine, who massively underperformed at GCSEs compared to A Level predicted grades there needs to be room for this to be discussed.

My child will not be eligible for contextualised offers at the universities he wants to apply to as those are based on postcode areas and social factors not disability and mental health, not that he will need them if he gets the results he is achieving in year 12, but he has faced barriers that most kids don't face and his achievements now are all the more commendable given the fact that he wasn't able to engage in any formal education for the vast majority of his high school years.

How would you propose this scenario is dealt with in the absence of school references? On the face of it without school references my son couldn't compete with other able children due to poor GCSEs through no fault of his own. As someone said upthread if there are more people applying for the course than there are places and GCSEs are the only other indicator then my child won't get a place.

I think that the point is that no system is perfect. I think that issues could be made better but removing PSs and Teacher references will disadvantage some.

Well, I have proposed a scenario already (see above) do away with predicted grades and have exams in February. That way those who didn't perform at GCSEs have the same chances as those who did and that the acceptance to uni will be on actual rather than highly subjective predictive grades!

I didn't suggest doing away with the reference etc before a new, better system is in place. But, there is no denying, most personal statements have a lot of input from many others than the student themselves, so hardly a fair tool but, as I have said before, no skin in the game myself as my privately-educated DC will benefit from having access to a PS and reference. Doesn't make it ideal/right!

Well, I have proposed a scenario already (see above) do away with predicted grades and have exams in February. That way those who didn't perform at GCSEs have the same chances as those who did and that the acceptance to uni will be on actual rather than highly subjective predictive grades!

I'm not sure it will though. There is still the potential for more candidates than places how will they then differentiate between two candidates with the same A level results?

I can't see this happening anyway. People have been moaning about the system for years, at least since I did A Levels 30 years ago and it hasn't changed. It would involve a massive upheaval in systems and cramming a lot of A Level work into a shorter time frame isn't ideal anyway as standards might slip.

I wholeheartedly agree with this. The HE board on MN however is chock full of experts rather than normal parents though.

If only I had known what I know now…..second child has a distinct advantage!

It’s all well and good telling the 16 yr olds but parents really need to understand it as well.

Is it? My eldest's predicts were all 2-3 grades below her actuals. I suspect being a quiet studious girl that never volunteered information in class (although her work was consitently good grades, always did well in exams but never top of class) that she simply didn't have any 'presence' for the staff to know her in a big class.

Thank you. Couldn't agree more! ;)

That's awful and very unfair. It really is. Hence the system, as it seems to be a subjective exercise (though I understand some schools use more metrics), is not fit for purpose.

Also, someone else said on here that you need to 'show interest'.

Again fairly subjective as (a) some kids might be naturally interested and show it (b) some who are naturally interested but don't show it (quiet ones) and (c) finally those kids who may not necessarily be more interested than others but have highly involved parents (who knows the ropes) and so either encourage or push for greater involvement and to showcase their interest.

Gosh, it's like the worse case of 'sucking up to the boss'! ;)

Good to know. And assuming here that all children will know from day 1 in Y12 that they are expected to show that they read around the topic to get those top predicted grades?

I think that the system is not ideal, however working consistently throughout year 12 is probably a good indicator of future performance. My dd is doing A levels now and the revision is so much easier because she has worked solidly throughout.

For the student who hasn't got the predictions they want, but believes they can do better, unless a maths type degree, a year out is probably a good option. I got much higher actual grades, took a year out, got a job, did some traveling, matured a lot. Applied with actual grades, unconditional offers for course and accommodation.

Honestly, it didn't matter as DD wasn't intending on going to Uni - and as it turned out didn't manage to collect her results till a week later (as she was working on a dairy farm and the tractor broke so she had to do everything by hand so didn't finish work till the afternoon rather than 11ish), then school was shut and it took a whole week to find someone in that had a key to the room to get the results, but as she'd done so much better than predicted (A*,A & B vs B,C,D) she decided to apply through clearing for that year as there were no openings in the apprenticeship she hoped for. Applying was easy, pick course check they'd space, and they weren't too bothered about statement as she'd got results

Again fairly subjective as (a) some kids might be naturally interested and show it (b) some who are naturally interested but don't show it (quiet ones) and (c) finally those kids who may not necessarily be more interested than others but have highly involved parents (who knows the ropes) and so either encourage or push for greater involvement and to showcase their interest.

Gosh, it's like the worse case of 'sucking up to the boss'! ;)
In my experience I have very little to do with parents for 6th form students so not sure how highly involved parents would influence my predictions.

Being interested doesn't mean they have to draw attention to themselves. In my subject it often comes through in their work, their attitude to coursework, the amount of independent study they do, whether they complete the suggested wider reading or not, whether they arrive to class on time Vs strolling in 15 minutes late with a take out coffee cup. I offer office hours for my 6th formers as a drop in and it's interesting who comes to those and who doesn't. Students will often email me a question or ask me if I can suggest further materials to develop their knowledge. There's many ways that the quieter students can demonstrate interest without sucking up or changing to have gregarious personalities.

Nothing is perfect, but it is possible to get a feel for your class, their work ethic, levels of engagement.

It’s not a perfect system, which is why there keep being calls for a reform to the system and post-results applications. That way, students would know what they had to offer and universities would be able to know who was in a position to actually come. However, working that out and things like timings of external exams etc isn’t straightforward. People who think there’s a simple answer that they’ve dreamt up in 5 minutes, don’t realise how often this topic is looked at by government etc.

It is what it is. Students have to work with the system that exists. As has been said many times, students are regularly told what the timescales are and they really do know that the work of Yr12 will be used to form the predictions. Parents are also told this info. As others have said, all Sixth Forms have a welcome evening where the short nature of the 6th Form is spelled out and that predictions will be based on Yr12 work and wider reading and engagement is best started early if a student wants their application to stand out. Not all students listen and engage and to be honest, not all parents do either.

Every year there are one or two who say no-one told them and expect their predicted grades to be based on where they’d like to go/their parents want them to go, rather than what the evidence suggests is likely. Schools will take into account genuine special considerations, but they need to have evidence that a student can perform at a particular level in order to predict a grade. The student who has gained lowish GCSEs and then had a poor Yr12 and who wants high predicted grades, isn’t providing much evidence to base that on. And remmeber that in most cases the predictions are TOO generous anyways rather than being too mean. Teachers don’t want to be mean. They want to give their students all the opportunities that they can ….but caving to pressure and predicting unrealistic grades doesn’t do anyone favours, as then there are students on results day without places.

There is a problem to percentages. There isn’t fixed grades boundaries so a 60% in physics could be a B but a C in history. The grade boundaries are altered every year to adjust for difficulty of the paper. They aren’t the same subject by subject but the grades are supposed to be.

In answer to another question, yes I tell my students that for every hour in the classroom they should be doing 1 hour or independent study, 5 hours a week per subject in class 5 hours on their own. I set prep that is maybe 1 hour the rest is reading ahead, around and behind. Example and resources given.

Doing exams in Feb - that is a significant reduction in the course length. Then what would the students do until Sept / October? That is 6-7 months.

@WombatChocolate there may be people who feel they have solved the problems of post qualification applications ‘in five minutes’ but I don’t know any of them. I do know that this had been a lively subject of study at national admissions tutors’ conferences I have attended and by government and professional working groups over the years.

The consensus is that it would be fairer and could be made to work. The consensus is also that, if we are not to move A Levels forward thereby compromising the syllabus, the inconvenience to families, teachers and colleagues across HE is such that it is unlikely to happen.

OP and others, at my School references are mainly important for any discussion if mitigating circumstances, formal and informal. We pay almost no attention to the PS for the reasons you have brought up. For context, we are a STEM School in the tier just below COWI.

I’m in Northern Ireland and ds has just finished his AS. Having read this I’m thinking our AS and A2 system might not actually be a bad thing.

And assuming here that all children will know from day 1 in Y12 that they are expected to show that they read around the topic to get those top predicted grades?

They certainly did in my son's state 6th form. They were told from day one.

Some listened others didn't.

Perhaps ask your DC then take it up with the school if your DC wasn't aware.

But it isn't just based on additional reading it's based on actual attainment plus attitude to work.

My son did his yr 12 mocks before half term, revision wasn't a stress for him as he'd made excellent notes and gone above and beyond throughout the year. He literally gets home and sits down and gets on with it because he is motivated to get to the best University he can achieve. He has got results that reflect his hard work. If his school inflate the A to an A* it is because he has improved from a C at the start of year 12 to an A over the assessments and there is evidence to show the upward trend will continue.

What I am surprised about is how little your DC seems to know about the way the assessments happen. If the school genuinely hasn't raised any of this then I do think you should take it up with them.

My DC hasn't even started in Y12 yet so would not have been informed.

Hence me 'familiarising' myself with it all.

DC is predicted mainly 8/9s and is working hard and is diligent but really hadn't realised that the predicted were not based on the mocks. Stupid, I know, but I had thought that predictions would mainly be based on GCSEs and mocks. Silly me! :)

I'm not really clear what your concern is then to be honest. If your child is a high achiever and works hard in year 12 then they should get the predictions they are capable of getting.

Why do you think that they won't?

I fully agree. By people who have solved the problem in 5 mins, I mean OP. This is a thread by a disgruntled parent who is surprised by the system. And she’s right that in lots of ways it is a mad system.

My point was, that changing it is complex. There are historic and practical reasons why we still have a system that tests 18 year olds and uses stuff they can remember on one or two afternoons to give them a grade that will be with them for life and determine their higher education options. There are historic and practical reasons why exams are sat in the early summer and why university applications happen in the autumn before and why offers are made early and only confirmed after results. People might suggest that everything should be more objective in terms of assessment and marking, and point out problems in references or personal statements, or A Levels themselves, or a system where international students are attractive as they pay more, or some schools put more effort into uni applications than others, and the fact that some students just inherently have more opportunities from birth than others. Those things are all rightly identified as problems. We have to keep on working for improvements, but some on this thread seem to suggest the solutions are easy and obvious, but quite simply they aren’t, as you know. There are alternatives that could work better, but a variety of barriers and knock-on consequences for families or schools, or government itself mean the options cannot make the progress they need to fully change the system.

I think schools do the best they can to help the students understand the process as it exists and to engage with it. Every year some families think the school is trying to hold them back and deny them opportunities but that is so rarely the case. And universities have a pretty impossible task. Students and parents think of the £9250 fees as extortionate, but they haven’t risen in real terms for years and universities just don’t have enough money. From a wider perspective it’s obvious why they want international students and how their fees can actually subsidise home students. And it’s understandable that they want the best students and have limits on how many they can take and that bums in seats and fees is totally vital for their survival. And efforts to broaden access and reform the PS are all good and needed. The reality will remain that not everyone has an equal start in life or equal access to an academic education. And we have a competitive uni system - by nature it means not everyone can get places at the top institutions. That’s a reality.