If it’s ‘No Deal’ next Friday-what will that actually look like?

[Holidayshopping]

Will there be immediate consequences?

What might be affected and when?

Food/petrol supply?
Roads?

Or will there be months of negotiations before anything actually changes?

Food will become more expensive and fresh foods will be in short supply. Roads are the ports will be a nightmare!

Petrol won't be affected but everything else will probably.

Ian Dunt's version

Leaver Richard North's version

Well according to a letter leaked today from the Head of the Civil Service we can except civil unrest, a lack of national security, an immediate recession worse than 2008, a 10% increase in food prices, direct rule in NI with the associated protests (and terorism?), much harder for businesses and individuals to get credit...

I won’t be able to get to work easily. For a start.

Blimey-this is scary!

And if we have May’s deal???

254 border crossings to police. With only 1% of the current lorries that pass having permits to enable them to cross the border.

And if we have May’s deal???

We have a transition, so we carry on as before, but without any say in making the rules. But it does at least mean that we retreat a little from the cliff edge.

Irish citizens born in Northern Ireland already have been told they won’t be able to access their EU rights post Brexit. They’re going to be treated as British. Incompatible with GFA?

There isn’t the knowledge base anymore to complete even the customs forms that will be required. They haven’t been needed since the early 90,s. That knowledge is lost.

There are approximately 7,000 lorries crossing the border every day.

Approximately 50% of those loads are going to have to be inspected.

Who’s going to do that? What about the additional cost? Every minute a lorry is stationary costs approx £1. Average check takes 90 mins.

4.6 million good vehicles crossed the border in 2016 on just 12 roads.

Are you guys ready to administer this?

I think Friday will be much like any other.

There might be a bit of a kerfuffle at airports / ports as no-one seems to know what will be needed re: travel documents / insurance / customs documents etc.. but this will only affect you if you are unlucky enough to be near Dover or 1 of the major airports.

The border in Northern Ireland will need to.close, we will break the GFA, we will be international pariahs and we will have betrayed our own citizens in NI and our nearest neighbours in RoI, we may see a return to the troubles.

I teach English in France and a few of my students have told me that for the last few months they have been almost exclusively manufacturing for the UK to have everything exported before B-day.

If this is true across other countries, the UK will seem pretty normal for a week or 2.

Then we will notice things disappearing from shops and what's left becoming more expensive as stock decreases.

As stocks diminish companies unprepared will start to go under and job losses will follow.

There will be lots of worry (in some cases justified) regarding supply of essentials such as medicine and fuel as we scramble to find / import things sending produce. If you are unlucky enough to be dependant on insulin or radiation treatment for cancer you would be at great risk.

In the following weeks / months people and businesses who can leave will leave.

The UK will fall into a severe recession. This will impact the whole of the EU who while they will not suffer as badly will be impacted which will just add to our current lack of popularity.

Some people will make a lot of money out of this (disaster capitalists and such)

We will make terrible deals with other countries because our politicians are inept and we will be desperate and alone. This will lead to consequences such as increased immigration visas (for them not us) and the privatisation of the NHS (trump red line) and probably many others unforseen at this stage.

We will blame the EU, remainers, remain politians, Labour politicians, lib Dem, snp, Teresa May, all other countries that don't immediately come to our aid (We are Britain don't you know) Johnson, rhys-mogg, Farage, ourselves in roughly that order.

Obviously I could be completely wrong too. Honest answer 'who the fuck knows' bit with the current shitshow at Westminster it isn't going to be good.

I just do not understand how we’ve got here. It defies sense. It’s like we’ve woken up in a nightmare.

It's going to depend what can be agreed upfront to limit the damage.

As things stand Spain is blocking approval of the legislation that will grant visa free travel to the Schengen area for British citizens. If that doesn't pass every Briton attempting to enter the Schengen area will require a €52 visa that will need to be requested in advance.

Queues at ports might not be as bad as modelling suggests because no sensible freight company will want its trucks anywhere near the ports (but that implies disruption to imports and exports could be even worse).

Carrie Anne

The answer is Shock Doctrine

Disaster Capitalism and the Tory Right

And even if there is no particular reason for petrol shortages, it will be the first thing to either run out or be rationed, because it's something that every car driver can easily stockpile.

Nobody I speak to is even vaguely worried by this! Especially the people at work-‘Crashing Out’ is seen as a good think as we’ll finally be free of the manacles ofthe EU!??

It’s next week

I don't think hard core Leavers will blame Farage, Rees-Mogg or Johnson. On the contrary, they will be telling us that if they had been listened too it would all be hunky-dory now. Never mind that anything they say is just so much hot air. The three concerned will flee the country if it begins to affect them.

the long-term economic costs of leaving without a deal would not be very different from staying in the bloc

Former governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/uk-should-leave-eu-with-no-deal-says-former-bank-of-england-governor

One man's opinion, laced about with quite a lot of hot air - namely babble like "My own personal preference would be to go back to Europe and say we have a clear strategy, which is we want to leave without a deal, but we would like to take six months to complete the preparations to avoid the dislocation,”

We have had the better part of three years without deciding what sort of preparation we wish to make.

He gives a timescale of six months - that's not long, let us see how quickly the roads get snarled up in Kent or how quickly food disappears from the shops, or becomes more expensive. As a wealthy man, he will be alright jack.

I want to see proper solutions for the bulk of the population and would trust the current Governor's opinion far more.

lucy while i aknowledge that Mervyn King is an expert in his field he does tend to go against the opinion of the majority of other in his field on Brexit.

He has past form for not appreciating the warnings: Mervyn King repeatedly ignored claims that the overpriced housing market in the UK could lead to a financial crisis and even in 2008 was slow to cut interest rates deepening the crisis.

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/damianreece/9244532/Sir-Mervyn-King-has-given-us-more-questions-than-answers-about-the-financial-crisis.html

He has also been critisised for his support of Conservative austerity measures which have resulted in some of the highest levels of child poverty the UK has seen for a long time.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2010/nov/25/mervyn-king-support-cuts-excessively-political

That said I really hope he is right this time

There is a lot of scaremongering going on, a lot of it on this thread! I dont believe for a minute that this will happen. Remember the Millenium bug?

@FurryStalker - the millennium bug was worked on for years - I know I was a part of it. A no deal Brexit has had very limited planning and is an unknown to some extent as to how people and businesses will be affected. It is not scaremongering when the GFA, the supply chain and mass redundancies are involved.

I think the panic could start a bit earlier than Fri if it is No Deal for people who are not hard of thinking and think it 'will be just like that Millennium Bug, hee hee, aren't I so clever making that highly fucking stupid point'.

1. The Channel Ports will be gridlocked, with the linear car park on the M20 stretching back to Maidstone.

1. As this image dominates the media, the panic buying will start. As this image takes over, it will spiral.

1. The EU's patience will run out. No negotiations until they get their forty billion.

1. Sales of REM's "It's The End Of The World As We Know It" will rocket.

Remember the Millenium bug?grin

Christ-teams of people were working on that for years beforehand!! It’s not remotely the same!