If it’s ‘No Deal’ next Friday-what will that actually look like?

[Holidayshopping]

Will there be immediate consequences?

What might be affected and when?

Food/petrol supply?
Roads?

Or will there be months of negotiations before anything actually changes?

Potentially could anyone holidaying in Europe from next weekend not be able to? At least until they’ve got a visa then?

Do I have to restart Brexit Bingo?

I too worked on the Millenium bug, absolutely nothing like Brexit, so Leavers who come on and say that only make themselves look foolish.
As for those who have never got themselves caught up in the grid lock in Kent - you have a treat in store, a five hour wait for a distance you could walk in 30 minutes. Enjoy.

more foolish that should have said.

I hope Mervyn King is right too Chilimum. You post two links critical of him but he was actually well regarded as a steady pair of hands during the financial crisis. I think his opinion is worth a lot more than many of the scaremongers on twitter who just repeat phrases like "crashing out" when they have no understanding of trade at all. I think his idea of asking for six months to prepare for a no deal Brexit is eminently sensible. Whether the Eu would agree is another matter!

Mark Carney is not someone on twitter. It's a bit late now to start asking for time to prepare for no deal. The rest of the EU has got its act together on that one, so why couldn't the UK?

It is a bit late you are right.
No harm in asking though.

And even Mark Carney is less doomy about no deal than he used to be:

www.moneywise.co.uk/news/2019-03-06/damage-to-the-economy-no-deal-brexit-would-now-be-less-we-feared-says-bank-england

What Kent CC say about 'no-deal' traffic management in their most recent report (March) - despite the hysteria;

As the 13 December 2018 County Council paper detailed, through the Kent Resilience Forum, KCC Highways and partners have devised a dedicated five phased ‘Freight Traffic Management Plan’, which contains various mitigations to maintain freight fluidity in the event of a no-deal Brexit. These preparations should ensure that freight using the main corridor routes through Kent is kept moving.

4.4 On 7 January 2019, the DfT and KCC carried out a flow test of the Operation Brock Traffic Management system.The test went well, and all partners considered that the operation was sufficient to test the flow rate and A256 TAP sufficiency. 89 vehicles took part in the test, at a batch of 25, at 6 vehicles a minute.The second batch of 83, were released at just over 6 in a minute.This simulated roughly 400 vehicles an hour, in excess of the 350 threshold.The test used both right and left-hand drive vehicles.By way of comparison, in 2015 partners tested 20 vehicles.

4.5 Local permit arrangements are being explored so that local hauliers would not be required to join freight queues to exit the UK when moving around the county.

I don’t think Mervyn King’s making the point you think he’s making. He seems to be talking about it making no difference in the long term. He does talk about ‘short term dislocation costs’. God knows what that phrase is supposed to mean but I suspect it can’t be good. And that’s based on crashing out with no deal when we’re prepared for it. That’s very different to crashing out with no deal next week when we’re no where near prepared for it. In order to get to that point we’re going to need a long extension and to take part in the EU elections.

There probably isn’t any need to make the argument that decisions should be based on things other than the economy if you are convinced that your prediction that the economy will be fine is correct. The fact that he’s attempted to make that argument should ring an alarm bell.

Isn't the pound likely to lose a lot of value very quickly? That would put the price of petrol up which would then increase the price of just about all goods (due to transport costs).
But the good news is that rich Brexiteers will make a killing on the currency exchanges. Great.

I think it would look like a wave of people bulk buying food in panic in conjunction with initial difficulties in restocking shelves, resulting in bare shelves and less variety than we are use to. Which reminds me that we've eaten all the chocolate in our Brexit cupboard

There is no possibility of the EU giving the UK 6 months to prepare for No Deal. It is 12 April or long extension to negotiate a different deal

According to the last link Lucy posted, yes nothingwittyhere Alongside a stock market crash and significant friction moving goods across borders.

I’ve just seen that May is going to ask for another extension.

It’s going to be a short extension she’ll ask for though. I don’t see how the EU can grant that at this point. Unless they’ll allow a short extension as long as we take part in the elections.

Can’t work out the benefits of the bill brought by Yvonne Cooper - the EU will decide on any extension not the UK parliament.

The shops will start to empty by the middle of next week (even more than they are already)
because lorry drivers will not come across if they cannot be certain they will get home

Can’t work out the benefits of the bill brought by Yvonne Cooper - the EU will decide on any extension not the UK parliament

This is true, but I think this was a political manoeuvre more than anything, to reinforce that there is no majority (just) for no deal, and to give May some cover when/if she requests a long extension.

Cooper already knew that a more effective protection from no deal (the Joanna Cherry indicative vote motion) did not have a majority. So I think this bill is not necessarily intended to be a "good" bill, but one that is capable of being passed and that fulfils a politician function not a legal one.

Correction: "Fulfils a political function"

As there appears to be little progress in there being a deal which will receive a majority vote, I can’t see the EU granting any further extension.

As there appears to be little progress in there being a deal which will receive a majority vote, I can’t see the EU granting any further extension

Failure by MP's to agree anything makes no deal more likely. If EU continue to grant extensions to Article 50 it sends out a signal that they are afraid for UK to leave the EU. Never forget that UK is the third largest donor to EU.

And even Mark Carney is less doomy about no deal than he used to be

His job is to create the most stable and advantageous environment for the UK. So when no-deal is unlikely but possible, he will say the starkest, worse case scenario because it's shit and he knows it. When no deal seems likely, he will need to be calm and measured (even though it's still a terrible idea) because that's the best thing for the country.

A firm hand in a crisis. I wish he'd give lessons to the idiots 'running' the country.

The UK is indeed the 3rd largest net contributor to the EU behind Germany (by far the largest) and France, but it is only the 9th largest contributor per capita - on a similar level to Italy (10th)

Puts a slightly different slant on it

Children may have to get used to seasonal grown food & educate thier parents.....but it does tick a carbon footprint box.