Risk of serious illness and death after two jabs

[Ilovetoddlerssaidnooneever]

Let me preface this by saying I'm not looking for a discussion on the merits or not of vaccinations.

Someone I know died from COVID a few weeks ago. I've been told they'd had both doses of the vaccine. I'd always understood that the chances of dying from COVID were virtually 0 if you had received two doses of the vaccine. Is this changing or was this person just extremely unlucky? I can't imagine they weren't vaccinated and someone isn't being truthful.

I know two people double jabbed who died but they had underlying conditions in one case and were elderly in the other

It’s not a guarantee but it reduces your risk significantly is my understanding?

Surely it all depends on what their general health was like.

That would require the vaccines to be 100% effective. They’re not. Pfizer is about 97% effective against serious illness and death which means, if I’ve understood correctly, 3% of double vaccinated Pfizer recipients may still get sick enough to die. And the concern is that effectiveness is waning which means more double vaccinated people may get sick enough to die.

And as lots of people currently have covid, then that 3% could still be quite a number of people

As many threads have pointed out, in a country with almost every adult fully vaccinated, of course the people dying are also going to be fully vaccinated.
Being double vaccinated lessens that likelihood but doesn't totally eradicate it.
As others have said, it's lifestyle too.

The jabs aren't 100%, even in those with no underlying conditions, so there will be an unlucky few who become seriously ill or die despite being double vaccinated. But the numbers will be low.

It's the 'price' that the expert have been saying for a long time now that we will be paying . Because we are not aiming for zero deaths or hospitalisations - rather a manageable number

It's rather shit for those for whom the jab might not work well, like the 500,000 who are getting the extra shot, and indeed for anyone who has an additional risk factor

No vaccine is ever 100% effective.

This person may have underlying health conditions which made them more vulnerable. They may also have a condition which means the vaccine is less effective for them.

Sadly for some people the vaccines won't be enough.

The reality still remains that for the vast majority of people the vaccines will help prevent them from being seriously ill, or worse, if they catch covid.

People will always die of illnesses that other people shake off easily. It still comes down to nature and a degree of survival of the fittest. Vaccines can help keep that at bay for most people,but not all and mother nature will win.

As an example, compare this with the flu vaccine: All vulnerable people are offered the flu vaccine every year. Some of those people still catch influenza and become seriously ill. Some of those vaccinated people still die, despite having their annual flu jab.

Covid isn't unusual in this. I don't think there has ever been a 100% effective vaccine that works perfectly in 100% people.

No vaccine will be 100% for every, different immune systems etc etc
Keep everything in context

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

That would require the vaccines to be 100% effective. They’re not. Pfizer is about 97% effective against serious illness and death which means, if I’ve understood correctly, 3% of double vaccinated Pfizer recipients may still get sick enough to die. And the concern is that effectiveness is waning which means more double vaccinated people may get sick enough to die.

This would be true if your chance of death without the vaccine was 100%. Fortunately it's not. It ranges, I believe, from about 20% (for the over 80s) to much less than 1% (e.g. for children).

So a 97% effective vaccine would mean someone whose previous chance of death was 20% would have a chance of death of 20% * 3% = 0.6%. Someone whose previous risk of death was 1% is now down at 0.003%.

Note I'm assuming that the vaccine is equally effective in all risk groups.

Argh, important typo - should have said a 1% risk reduces to 0.03%, not 0.003%.

if I’ve understood correctly, 3% of double vaccinated Pfizer recipients may still get sick enough to die

You have not understood correctly. The mortality rate from covid is far less than 3% even among the unvaccinated, it makes no sense that vaccinated people have a 3% chance of dying. Look at the statistics, today we have 37,000 cases per day. A 3% death rate would be over 1000 deaths per day. The deaths (with not of) covid are more like 100 per day.

The 97% efficacy means that of 100 people who would have died without the vaccine, 97 will not die and 3 still will.

OP your friend was just extremely unlucky.

Thank you everyone. I understand that the vaccine is not 100% effective and also understand why increasing numbers of seriously ill people have been jabbed. I was just under the impression that the vaccine (at least Pfizer) was 100% effective at preventing death. I could've sworn I heard that on R4 a few months ago.

I keep reading this type of comment: 'As many threads have pointed out, in a country with almost every adult fully vaccinated, of course the people dying are also going to be fully vaccinated.'

But not... if the vaccine prevented death... or prevented death in the vast majority of cases.. I do recognise that the number of deaths per cases has decreased significantly which does show that the vaccine is reducing the number of deaths, just not preventing it in all cases.

American media are constantly saying that the only people in hospital are unvaccinated. I am confused by the contrast with UK data. I gather the American data are mostly bad -- vaccine status is unknown for > 80% of patients. Still, confusing.

Thanks for clarifying my dreadful understanding of statistics

I am one of the lucky (or unlucky) ones, whichever way you want to look at it.

I'm double jabbed, in my 50s, no underlying health conditions, a bit over weight and I was hospitalised for 10 nights with covid and pneumonia.

I was severely ill and it was touch and go for a while but the concoction of drugs, CPAP machine and the amazing medical team helped me pull through.

They also told me being double jabbed probably saved my life!!

Before I went into hospital I was at home gradually getting worse and worse, my son was looking after me and thankfully he didn't catch anything.

Even tho being double jabbed didn't prevent serious illness for me, I didn't transmit anything to my son and for that I am so thankful.

I'm in the minority so for most people, being double jabbed and getting covid can be managed at home

UCL dynamic causal modelling (updated 29th August 2021)

Current estimates of the vaccination efficacy are:
preventing infection: 14.1% (CI 10.0 to 18.0)
preventing transmission following infection 87.6% (CI 86.6 to 88.4)
preventing serious illness when symptomatic (age 15-34) 81.8% (CI 81.2 to 82.3)
preventing serious illness when symptomatic (age 35-70) 49.0% (CI 47.6 to 50.4)
preventing fatality when seriously ill 79.1% (CI 78.6 to 79.6)

The corresponding cumulative (vaccinated vs. unvaccinated) risks are:
relative risk of infection 85.9%
relative risk of mild illness 38.9%
relative risk of severe illness 14.6%
relative risk of fatality 3.0%
For example, vaccination reduces the risk of being infected and developing a severe illness to 14.6% of the risk prior to vaccination.

The risks prior to vaccination will depend on your age and health status. So the risk of death is 3% of whatever it was previously, as @110APiccadilly said. 3% of a 10% risk of death would be only 0.3%. Much smaller risk, but people will still die.

As others have said, it's lifestyle too
Lifestyle? Are you suggesting that someone's behaviour affects the severity of covid?

With all of these statistics clearly showing that vaccines do not eliminate the danger from COVID, why is it that people lookat me like im unhinged because i choose to continue to wear a mask in shops?

@FizziWater

As others have said, it's lifestyle too Lifestyle? Are you suggesting that someone's behaviour affects the severity of covid?

I'm not, no. But the medical profession has produced enough literature on it since early 2020 to show it's true. As with any other respiratory disease.

@Cttontail

That stat on transmission reduction is astonishing! I'd heard that there was some pessimism about how effectively they would reduce transmission, but that's great!

@FizziWater

How is that controversial?

If your lifestyle is unhealthy (smoking, drinking, poor diet, overwork, not enough sleep, high stress, no exercise) etc etc then yes, you are more likely to be severely ill with almost any illness - including covid.

For the elderly a 97% reduction of dying from covid still puts them at a far greater risk of dying from covid than a much younger and healthy unvaccinated person.

But they are still far less likely to die than they would have otherwise.