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Covid

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Risk of serious illness and death after two jabs

69 replies

Ilovetoddlerssaidnooneever · 05/09/2021 16:54

Let me preface this by saying I'm not looking for a discussion on the merits or not of vaccinations.

Someone I know died from COVID a few weeks ago. I've been told they'd had both doses of the vaccine. I'd always understood that the chances of dying from COVID were virtually 0 if you had received two doses of the vaccine. Is this changing or was this person just extremely unlucky? I can't imagine they weren't vaccinated and someone isn't being truthful.

OP posts:
ohfourfoxache · 06/09/2021 09:41

Efficacy also starts to reduce with time

www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210728/pfizer-vaccine-protection-wanes-after-6-months-study-finds

My CEV mum has lost 75% of her antibodies (double Pfizered) - 0 antibodies after first dose, stopped immunosuppressants for 8 weeks (second dose after 4 weeks of stopping) and got a good response with antibodies +++ but recent bloods show that these have reduced significantly

So presumably even if someone is double jabbed, if their antibodies are waning then there is more chance of them being seriously adversely affected by catching it 🤷🏻‍♀️

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 10:03

So presumably even if someone is double jabbed, if their antibodies are waning then there is more chance of them being seriously adversely affected by catching it

No, because antibodies are only the first line of defence. The fight against serious disease is more about B and T cells.

Read this

www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/waning-immunity-not-crisis-right-now/619965/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign

ohfourfoxache · 06/09/2021 10:20

@TheKeatingFive that’s an excellent article, thank you for posting it

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 10:22

You’re welcome. I found it really clear and informative also.

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 10:41

But is it really, as speculated in the article you posted, a good idea to rely on T cells when antibodies wane? Afterall, with Covid many of the serious cases and deaths are caused by overactive T cells. Hence the use of immunosuppressants as a treatment.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/206173/severe-covid-19-infection-linked-overactive-immune/amp/

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 10:54

But is it really, as speculated in the article you posted, a good idea to rely on T cells when antibodies wane? Afterall, with Covid many of the serious cases and deaths are caused by overactive T cells.

T cells are how we fight infection. They're not a back up plan for antibodies.

Certain posters on this site are clearly demonstrating that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 10:58

@lljkk

American media are constantly saying that the only people in hospital are unvaccinated. I am confused by the contrast with UK data. I gather the American data are mostly bad -- vaccine status is unknown for > 80% of patients. Still, confusing.
Is the US data on vaccination status of hospitalised patients really that unclear? 80%? Where did you read that?

Perhaps the contrast between here and there is because of different dosing schedules and/or different vaccines. Although UK studies suggest longer gap is better so it might simply be many in America got vaccinated later than here - meaning their immunity hasn't waned as much. Yet. I read they think it's starting to wane so things could change - except maybe not, as they're giving everybody booster jabs asap.

We should follow WHO advice and, like Jeremy Hunt says, get on with it - give boosters to the elderly and the CV (+ frontline health and social care workers).

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 10:59

Certain posters on this site are clearly demonstrating that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Yes. It would help them perhaps if they read the Imperial College article re T cells and how it's different with Covid.

NeverTalkToStrangers · 06/09/2021 11:02

@Ilovetoddlerssaidnooneever

Thank you everyone. I understand that the vaccine is not 100% effective and also understand why increasing numbers of seriously ill people have been jabbed. I was just under the impression that the vaccine (at least Pfizer) was 100% effective at preventing death. I could've sworn I heard that on R4 a few months ago.
What you probably read is the result of a trial in which none of the vaccinated participants died. As I recall there have been a couple of trials in which no worst case outcomes were seen in the vaccinated group. So yes "it was 100% effective in preventing death in that sample".

However, given the numbers trialled and the relatively short time period only a tiny number of the unvaccinated participants will have died so the confidence intervals are huge. If you do a trial and no participants die whether vaccinated or bot then you could truthfully report that as 100% efficacy but it would be hugely misleading. If one unvaccinated subject dies and no vaccinated subjects then that would be 100% efficacy from one point of view but still not a useful portrayal of the facts which is that the data shows nothing useable. If five unvaccinated subjects die and no vaccinated then the papers will say "100% success rate!!!" but all you can usefully conclude on the back of the envelope is that it works to some extent, probably better than 50%.

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 11:03

When we are infected with pathogens like bacteria and viruses, our bodies mount several types of immune system response. One of the major components are T cells, which come in several different forms that coordinate the immune response, from killing infected cells to recruiting more T cells to the fight.

Sometimes, our immune system overreacts to invaders, for example during an allergic reaction, resulting in T cells killing normal, healthy cells and causing tissue damage. However, there is a ‘brake mechanism’ that should kick in, causing T cells to reduce their activity and calming inflammation.

The new research, published today in Frontiers in Immunology, shows how this brake mechanism does not appear to kick in in severe COVID-19 cases.

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 11:07

No actual immunologist is saying that T cells are not a crucial aspect of how our bodies fight covid.

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 11:08

Overactive immune responses are a separate issue and not at all unique to covid

lljkk · 06/09/2021 11:20

ok, tried to find specifics

Is the US data on vaccination status of hospitalised patients really that unclear?

Yes, says Politico. I dunno if 80% is right stat, nobody knows right stat, just lots of missing data problem.

CDC published data about breakthru infections leading to deaths, so already the often quoted US narrative that only unvaccinated are in hospital or dying, starts to look ropey.

Perhaps the contrast between here and there is because of different dosing schedules and/or different vaccines.

I've heard that theory, too, about the schedules I mean.

ohfourfoxache · 06/09/2021 11:21

@TheKeatingFive the overactive immune response - is that the same as a cytokine storm?

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 11:21

is that the same as a cytokine storm?

Yes!

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 11:26

[quote VaguelyInteresting]@FizziWater

How is that controversial?

If your lifestyle is unhealthy (smoking, drinking, poor diet, overwork, not enough sleep, high stress, no exercise) etc etc then yes, you are more likely to be severely ill with almost any illness - including covid.[/quote]
Yes. If only it was easier to include socioeconomic risk for vaccine prioritisation. Too many people have too little control over their lifestyle. For many, whether because of poverty and/or physical and mental ill health, mobility issues, and poor or insecure housing, lifestyle is not a choice.

Excessive and prolonged stress causes inflammation. And Covid is an inflammatory disease.

Incidentally, Gordon Brown pushing for us and other countries to donate vaccines to other countries instead of boosters here. He ignores or doesn't care that it will be our poor and vulnerable who will be most harmed by that. He also seems fixated on 'the West'. Perhaps he's stuck in a colonial mindset. In the East, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and UAE amongst others. All doing boosters.

It would hurt our poor and our vulnerable... all for a rather empty gesture. Donations are a drop in the ocean compared to what the lower income countries need, nowhere near enough. It's also not so helpful to donate Pfizer or Moderna, since many lower income countries lack the infrastructure to use them.

No, the way to getting the rest of the world vaccinated is Biden and Macron's way. The way called for by many of the low income countries themselves. Temporary vaccine patent waiver.

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 11:31

[quote ohfourfoxache]@TheKeatingFive the overactive immune response - is that the same as a cytokine storm?[/quote]
Yes that's the overactive T cells. It's why immunosuppressants - to dampen down the T cells - are amongst the treatment options for Covid.

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 11:34

It's why immunosuppressants - to dampen down the T cells - are amongst the treatment options for Covid.

Only if there is a cytokine storm.

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 11:38

@Tealightsandd

When we are infected with pathogens like bacteria and viruses, our bodies mount several types of immune system response. One of the major components are T cells, which come in several different forms that coordinate the immune response, from killing infected cells to recruiting more T cells to the fight.

Sometimes, our immune system overreacts to invaders, for example during an allergic reaction, resulting in T cells killing normal, healthy cells and causing tissue damage. However, there is a ‘brake mechanism’ that should kick in, causing T cells to reduce their activity and calming inflammation.

The new research, published today in Frontiers in Immunology, shows how this brake mechanism does not appear to kick in in severe COVID-19 cases.

To avoid any confusion, I should clarify that my above post isn't my own writing. It's 100% quotes from the Imperial College article (regarding the study published in Frontiers of Immunology.
Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 11:52

@TheKeatingFive

It's why immunosuppressants - to dampen down the T cells - are amongst the treatment options for Covid.

Only if there is a cytokine storm.

Which is a common feature of serious Covid cases.

This is an interesting article.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30223-8/fulltext

As SARS-COV-2 is still a new disease (and potentially human modified leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology), we'll still learning about it.

Strong T cells presumably help fight the virus off in it's early stages, preventing it from progressing to a serious case. That doesn't mean we can casually dismiss waning or low vaccine antibodies as not a big deal because 'T cells will save the day'. Particularly (but not only) for the vulnerable. Booster jabs are the safer and more certain solution to waning vaccine immunity.

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 11:57

Strong T cells presumably help fight the virus off in it's early stages, preventing it from progressing to a serious case. That doesn't mean we can casually dismiss waning or low vaccine antibodies as not a big deal because 'T cells will save the day'

Waning antibodies are absolutely expected, it’s a common feature of many vaccines.

T cells do a lot of the heavy lifting in preventing serious disease. The fact that they sometimes malfunction does not alter this fact.

The vaccines are still highly effective (though not totally foolproof) in preventing serious disease.

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 12:30

Waning antibodies are absolutely expected, it’s a common feature of many vaccines.

Yes. Which is why there's boosters.

You really should read the articles I posted. Covid isn't like other diseases. Things happen differently than expected.

ohfourfoxache · 06/09/2021 12:51

Thanks @TheKeatingFive and @Tealightsandd Thanks

I’m going to ask what is likely to be a very stupid question. My mum is on immunosuppressants (azathioprine) - is it possible that this could actually help her if she contracts covid or is that just wishful thinking?

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 12:52

Yes. Which is why there's boosters.

Immunologists (rather than randoms on the internet) are not yet clear on whether they’re needed. The vaccines are holding up very strongly against severe disease. Try reading the article I posted.

Covid isn't like other diseases.

There are unique and surprising aspects to covid, but our immune response takes broadly the same format as it always does. Cytokine storms aren’t unique to covid.

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 13:00

My mum is on immunosuppressants (azathioprine) - is it possible that this could actually help her if she contracts covid or is that just wishful thinking?

It’s not a stupid question at all, but I don’t have the medical expertise to answer it. Is she under consultant care? If so, perhaps ask them.