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Covid

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Risk of serious illness and death after two jabs

69 replies

Ilovetoddlerssaidnooneever · 05/09/2021 16:54

Let me preface this by saying I'm not looking for a discussion on the merits or not of vaccinations.

Someone I know died from COVID a few weeks ago. I've been told they'd had both doses of the vaccine. I'd always understood that the chances of dying from COVID were virtually 0 if you had received two doses of the vaccine. Is this changing or was this person just extremely unlucky? I can't imagine they weren't vaccinated and someone isn't being truthful.

OP posts:
ohfourfoxache · 06/09/2021 13:04

@TheKeatingFive yep, she’s under a team at UCLH but they just don’t know (and aren’t keen to use her as a guinea pig to find out!)

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 13:08

Of course not. It’s very tough when there are so many unknowns.

CatAlice · 06/09/2021 13:10

@Tealightsandd Intersting article. I'm curious because I think that might be what happened to me. Massively raised inflammatory markers. I'm on immunosupprssing drugs, which they stopped, and gave me dexamethasone and Tocilizumab when I was in hospital recently with covid.

wonkylegs · 06/09/2021 14:26

@ohfourfoxache I'm on immunosuppressants (biologics and DMARDs) and have been following this quite closely.
It's fairly complex, may come down to many factors and as more data comes in the more they can start to say
Good article that talks through some of the research and thoughts so far here creakyjoints.org/living-with-arthritis/coronavirus/treatments/tumor-necrosis-factor-biologics-covid-19/

Londonwriter · 06/09/2021 14:27

Okay. Here’s my not-well-informed understanding of it.

You have two main parts to your immune system: the innate and the adaptive immune system.

The innate immune system is your first line of defence. It involves cells that look for things, such as viruses and cancer cells, that aren’t supposed to be there. They send signals, called cytokines, which cause inflammation and attract other immune cells to the area. The inflammation causes tissue damage, fever, headache, sore throat, muscle pain - general immune symptoms.

As the infection progresses, your adaptive immune system kicks in and starts generating antibodies that are specifically targeted to the infection. These stick around in various forms to fight new infections in the future.

My understanding is that why Covid affects people worse as they get older is because your innate immune system becomes less effective as you age. This makes sense - it uses a lot of energy and is pathological when overactive and, as an older person, you’ve encountered most of the pathogens you’re likely to meet before - thus, antibodies.

In severe Covid, the innate immune system kicks in too late, once the infection is already well established. Because you have systemic infection by this time, the innate system goes crazy and kicks into cytokine storm, which kills people.

We know that a strong innate immune response isn’t what kills people in Covid because younger people have a stronger innate response. It was an overactive innate immune response that killed people in the 1918 flu pandemic - and this preferentially killed younger people, not the old.

If you have a very very strong innate immune response, you will never reach the point of being hospitalised with Covid because your innate immune system will have fought off the virus. I have a pathologically strong innate immune response, which means I can be bedridden with the common cold, but I rarely develop a runny nose. Instead, I have a bizarre range of symptoms with even minor colds, which include headaches, sore throat, blue hands (!), chills, low fevers, nausea, insomnia, twitching/restless legs, rashes, fatigue, brain fog, ‘a sense of impending doom’… and so on.

Reading the accounts of some kinds of Long COVID, it appears they are due to the innate immune system never shutting down - either because the virus is still there or because it didn’t shut off. This would explain the mild initial infections with lingering symptoms.

Again, I don’t really understand this stuff, but - from touring medical practitioners with my condition - neither does anyone else…

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 14:38

Immunologists (rather than randoms on the internet) are not yet clear on whether they’re needed.

I wouldn't describe the WHO as a 'random on the internet'.

@ohfourfoxache For once I agree with Keating. I'm sorry I can't help and hope more is known soon. (It would be wonderful if it did turn out to be the case!).

@CatAlice I'm sorry to hear you were hospitalised with it. I hope you're recovering well now?

It's definitely interesting wrt immunosuppressants, immunosuppression, the role of T cells, and Covid inflammation. So much still unknown but lots of research going on.

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 14:43

I wouldn't describe the WHO as a 'random on the internet'.

Neither would I and their messages on whether boosters are needed have been extremely mixed.

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 14:43

www.reuters.com/world/europe/higher-european-covid-19-transmission-rates-deeply-worrying-who-europe-head-2021-08-30/

A COVID-19 booster shot is a way to keep the most vulnerable safe and not a luxury robbing people who have yet to have even a single jab, a senior World Health Organization official said on Monday.

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 14:46

www.irishtimes.com/news/health/who-s-mike-ryan-questions-need-for-booster-vaccines-1.4665355

The idea that fit and healthy people who currently have two doses require a booster dose, at this point, we don’t have the evidence to support that,” Dr Ryan said

While some people may need a third shot for health reasons, giving boosters to the healthy was akin to giving two life jackets to some people on the Titanic.

We have to trade that off. We have to look at equity in the context of that. We have to be very, very careful and prudent around the whole idea of boosters.

Like I say. Very mixed.

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 14:48

Not really. The article you linked talks about fit and healthy people.

The vulnerable need boosters.

TheKeatingFive · 06/09/2021 14:50

The vulnerable need boosters.

The article I linked wasn't conclusive on that either. Note use of the word 'may'.

Also, you seemed to be saying that waning antibodies meant boosters were needed across the board. You didn't specify you meant only the vulnerable.

EmeraldShamrock · 06/09/2021 14:52

I never thought vaccinations were bullet proof just a small dose of protection like arming the immune system for an attack. No guarantee you're gonna win the war.
I'm living life double vaccinated but still careful not putting myself in situations where infections are high risk, still maintaining a distance when possible, regular hand washing.

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 14:55

I did specify. You might've missed it but scroll back through my posts and you'll see.

The article I linked reports on the WHO - who were conclusive that the vulnerable need boosters.

I'll leave you to it for now. I have things to do. Enjoy your afternoon.

Tealightsandd · 06/09/2021 14:58

Quick one before I go.

I did specify.

We should follow WHO advice and, like Jeremy Hunt says, get on with it - give boosters to the elderly and the CV (+ frontline health and social care workers).

PuzzledObserver · 06/09/2021 17:03

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

Pfizer is about 97% effective against serious illness and death which means, if I’ve understood correctly, 3% of double vaccinated Pfizer recipients may still get sick enough to die.

Not quite - it means that double vaccinated Pfizer people have 3% the risk of getting seriously ill and dying as unvaccinated people. So if out of a group of x (a few thousand?) unvaccinated people, 100 get seriously ill or die, then out of x double vaccinated people, only 3 would get seriously ill and die.

The size of x depends on the age and health of the cohort. But comparing people matched for age, sex and health, the risk for the vaccinated ones is 3% the risk of the unvaccinated ones.

FusionChefGeoff · 07/09/2021 20:33

@Cttontail those stats are excellent and I'm going to use them for work. Do you have the source in case I'm questioned further pls??

Ilovetoddlerssaidnooneever · 07/09/2021 21:08

Shitting hell. Found out today they were 38. 38 and double jabbed, how unlucky can a person be?

OP posts:
Cttontail · 07/09/2021 21:31

@FusionChefGeoff
UCL causal modelling is updated weekly on their website...
www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/forecasting/

FusionChefGeoff · 07/09/2021 22:03

@Cttontail amazing thanks

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