Why are we not mentioning the CV death numbers anymore?

[Mrschickpeabody]

Loads of reports on the numbers of new cases daily, local lockdowns and the like. But no mention of the fact the death rate is incredibly low and falling.

It doesn’t make exciting, reader-pulling headlines! 😉

Both social and traditional media have had unprecedented traffic, more eyeballs than ever watching the news and "doomscrolling." When all the people you get your information from have a vested interest in viewership, expect to be brought out of crisis mode as slowly as can be managed.

Personally I think the new 28 day criteria (only registered as CV if had a positive test within last 28 days) is skewing the figures incorrectly down. The real figure will be excess deaths which will only be known in retrospect.

I’m sure about a week and a half ago the daily figure for deaths was 180, now it’s near zero, the truth will be somewhere in between .

The information is all published - the other home nations will have parallel publications

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-21-August-2020.xlsx

I suppose it isn't getting much attention because a low death rate whilst we have a low case rate per 100,000 isn't newsworthy.

Lessons from elsewhere is Europe show us how quickly rates can pick up, so although one hopes for them to stay low there's no guarantee. And complacency about the only mitigations we have (hand washing, social distancing) would be risky

Because 'Sharp Rise in Cases' is a better headline than 'Five Times Fewer Deaths From Covid Than Flu' or 'Three People in their 80s With Pre-existing Conditions Died Today'.

@SirSamuelVimesBlackboardMonito

Because 'Sharp Rise in Cases' is a better headline than 'Five Times Fewer Deaths From Covid Than Flu' or 'Three People in their 80s With Pre-existing Conditions Died Today'.

Spot on.

I imagine when deaths are zero a day we will still be screeched at to wear masks for the next 50 years and to social distance.

Lessons from elsewhere in Europe show us how quickly rates can pick up, so although one hopes for them to stay low there's no guarantee

Is the death rate going up in Europe or just cases?

The number of deaths from all causes in the UK is about 2% lower than average currently. That doesn’t sell papers.

In Ireland, cases are climbing quickly. Hospitalisation and deaths remaining steadily low since June.

Had enough of this bullshit now.

@FluffyKittensinabasket

Had enough of this bullshit now.

What about Covid do you feel is bullshit?

Re: Ireland, I am not sure that is quite true. If you look at the graph you can see an increase from August, not June. en.m.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland/0/0ebfa41974699a53859d9034ee804b308524f339.png .

I agree with figures are skewed
otoh the cases are a good indicator

If you look at the graph you can see an increase from August, not June.

In cases. I said hospitalisation/deaths have remained steadily low since June.

its not going away op

This is a good resource for ireland

covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

@Schmoana

Personally I think the new 28 day criteria (only registered as CV if had a positive test within last 28 days) is skewing the figures incorrectly down. The real figure will be excess deaths which will only be known in retrospect.

I’m sure about a week and a half ago the daily figure for deaths was 180, now it’s near zero, the truth will be somewhere in between .

So presumably you think the Scottish figures, which have always used the 28 day rule, have always been incorrect and too low?

The total excess deaths due to covid is also falling as covid brought forward some deaths that would have happened this year.

Hardbackwriter - yes probably Scottish figures have been too low. Very hard to say which is why excess deaths Is probably going to be the best measure. But even then, there will be arguments as to the reason for the excess deaths - were they caused because of Covid or because of lockdown? I deal with deaths as part of a pension Scheme and have seen more Covid deaths on death certs than suicides but not many more! Totally anecdotal though

@Eyewhisker

Perhaps, but excess deaths rose to 100% above normal in April, but were just 2% below recently - similar to February and so not really of any statistical significance.

I disagree OP, I think it is something that is being discussed here and around the world. I would imagine that the government and scientists are watching carefully and do not want to prematurely make assumptions. Many of the people being infected are young so not likely to die or become seriously ill, the issue is that if they spread it to older or vulnerable people in the community then deaths will rise.

The total excess deaths due to covid is also falling as covid brought forward some deaths that would have happened this year.

I don’t think we know that is the reason. People, especially elderly people, are living very different lives now compared to 12 months ago. Also, surprisingly, death rates normally go down in a recession.

@SirSamuelVimesBlackboardMonito

Because 'Sharp Rise in Cases' is a better headline than 'Five Times Fewer Deaths From Covid Than Flu' or 'Three People in their 80s With Pre-existing Conditions Died Today'.

This!

@TheKeatingFive

That is a great website! Given that cases only started going up in August and there is a lag before that becomes hospitalisation and death, it’s not too surprising is it? If the increase in cases is not just down to more testing we would expect to see an increase in those things in the next couple of weeks.