Why are we not mentioning the CV death numbers anymore?

[Mrschickpeabody]

Loads of reports on the numbers of new cases daily, local lockdowns and the like. But no mention of the fact the death rate is incredibly low and falling.

No idea why. Probably to keep the fear high.

• cases are going up

• the shielded are being told to go back into the workplace

• the true figure for deaths realistically due to covid is going to be somewhere between 2 (tested 28 days ago) and 92 (60 days ago). The virus doesn't know not to kill people after a month and some people are in ICU with it for months, as we know.

• schools are going back with

- inadequate distancing - no PPE - crowded buses - cramped classrooms - kids and teachers who have been shielding told to join the melee

• winter is coming

-this virus flourishes around 4 degrees Centigrade

I would just watch this space. And keep your distance if you can x

But numbers are being reported? The DM seems to have an article daily...

More or Less looked at this, comparing the different versions of PHE figures with the ONS ones (which appear after a lag but are generally regarded as more accurate)

IIRC, the original way PHE was reporting it overstated the deaths from Covid.

The new way (28 days) understates it, but is comparable with the way other countries in the UK record their deaths.

60 days is pretty much right compared with the ONS, but isn't the same as the rest of the UK so despite its accuracy is not being used.

@notevenat20

The total excess deaths due to covid is also falling as covid brought forward some deaths that would have happened this year.

I don’t think we know that is the reason. People, especially elderly people, are living very different lives now compared to 12 months ago. Also, surprisingly, death rates normally go down in a recession.

And the death rate for 2020, like 2019 is likely to have been below the 5 year average anyway. There's nothing in the data that would support the idea that cases are falling because of deaths being brought forward. It would have to be way way below the 5 year average in order to make up for that. As far as I can tell, the stats seem to show the opposite.

For Covid-19 the number of deaths is a rubbish stat at paying too much attention to. Even if the government weren't fiddling the number down by using a 28 day cut off, it takes a while to die from Covid. If you are going to use that as your yardstick, you've got a problem that's going to be a lot harder to deal with by the time deaths start rising again.

ALL cause mortality is starting to rise. There are excess deaths in the 16 to 64 age group in England. This is attributed to local peaks, not nationwide.

Chicken - interesting. It would be surprising if that was due to covid given the lack of hospital cases. It may also reflect the lack of treatment for other diseases due to the NHS being on pause. So increased heart attacks, strokes and cancer deaths as treatment was paused and is slow to get running again.

twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1296080742607355904

I'd highly recommend a read of this thread, to see why we shouldn't place too much emphasis on the fact that deaths and hospital admissions are remaining low.

If we ignore the clusterfuck that is both testing and tracing, I think that the government might be getting this just about right with local lockdowns at an early point. It does seem like someone somewhere has learnt some lessons from Feb/Mar and that ignoring what's happened in other countries and thinking it won't happen here is a mistake.

@herecomesthsun

- cases are going up

• the shielded are being told to go back into the workplace

• the true figure for deaths realistically due to covid is going to be somewhere between 2 (tested 28 days ago) and 92 (60 days ago). The virus doesn't know not to kill people after a month and some people are in ICU with it for months, as we know.

• schools are going back with

- inadequate distancing - no PPE - crowded buses - cramped classrooms - kids and teachers who have been shielding told to join the melee

• winter is coming

-this virus flourishes around 4 degrees Centigrade

I would just watch this space. And keep your distance if you can x

Could a username be less suitable for this post?

I’m not sure Florida is a particularly enlightening comparison point. It’s essentially in its first ‘wave’ (didn’t get hard hit initially) and has lots of elderly, or middle aged with health issues. I’d be surprised if it wasn’t seeing high death figures.

Plus, it’s geographically removed from Europe where the virus seems to be playing out in a similar way across a number of post lockdown countries.

I must add, although this is only one person, not a conspiracy, my dad has had a positive test and ground glass chest xray. He has been put on dexamethasone, which he wasn't on before. But he was discharged home alone and his discharge summary stated he did not have Covid.

The Doctors surgery wants him back in hospital, because he cannot breathe and his organs are shutting down, but every time the paramedic comes out, he says its unecessary.

He is 88 and to be honest he was a difficult person to deal with (suspected dementia, but he's never been particularly nice), but i have no idea why he is being treated for an illness that he doesn't have.

I haven't been to see him and he is dying, but we are highly vulnerable and I am uncertain that he isnt a risk.

He was going to die soon anyway with his other illnesses, but I am wary of saying his death won't be covid related in this circumstances, as his decline has been steep.

They don’t report it because it won’t fuel the fear mongering that the government and Media seem to want to portray to the public.

I don't know about 'we', I haven't mentioned it to anyone but have seen on the media the death rate from Covid-19 is steadily falling in most places, in this country anyway.

Personally I find it rather refreshing not to have the pandemic top of the news all the time any more. Maybe I am living in cloud cuckoo land.

Deaths were reported by the BBC tonight.

@SirSamuelVimesBlackboardMonito

Because 'Sharp Rise in Cases' is a better headline than 'Five Times Fewer Deaths From Covid Than Flu' or 'Three People in their 80s With Pre-existing Conditions Died Today'.

This. In spades.

@notevenat20 the average amount of time spent in a care home before death is around 13 months so it is right to assume many deaths from covid were probably brought forward by a few months. If this is the case our excess deaths will remain lower than average for a while until this balences out.

@Mrschickpeabody

Loads of reports on the numbers of new cases daily, local lockdowns and the like. But no mention of the fact the death rate is incredibly low and falling.

Because it doesn't fit the media narrative to fuel the covid fear and hysteria. You only need to read the threads on here that no one wants to hear anything positive they thrive on the doom and gloom.

Three people in their 80s with preexisting conditions
Wouldn't be an accurate headline. One of the most recent deaths was a 33 year old. With no preexisting conditions.

it can take time to die from Covid

Hospital deaths from COVID after 28 days are still being counted if it is mentioned on the death certificate. So people who are on ITU for long periods before dying are still in the official counts.

This is from the NHS England notification guidelines:

For the purposes of CPNS reporting, there is a time limit of 28 days by which the positive COVID- 19 test result should be documented onto CPNS. In instances where a patient has had a positive test result >28 days prior to death, this death would not be reportable onto CPNS unless COVID- 19 is cited in part 1 or part 2 of the death certificate.

We do know that deaths have been brought forward. Almost half of covid deaths were in care homes. The average care home resident has a life expectancy of one year

No, it isn’t. Please stop making up statistics .

The average length of stay is 26 months. Life expectancy may be more (but won’t be less) as this figure represents a STAY in a care home, irrespective of whether discharge is by death or transfer to another care home or elsewhere . Link and quotation below.

And as for “deaths have been brought forward”, well, that could be said about any human being. However, recklessly introducing a virus into care homes will of course decimate the vulnerable. Quite how bad this was will fall to be assess in the inevitable public enquiry

***

www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2017-09-05/8937

The Department does not hold any data on average life expectancy of elderly residents in care homes – however the Department does hold published data on a resident’s length of stay in a care home where a service user’s stay ends due to their death. While this is occasionally used as a measure for life expectancy, this does not record stays for individuals in care homes where their stay ended because they moved from one home to another.
The statistics show that the average length of stay in a single residential care home in England that ended in a service users’ death was around 26 months, although this statistic does not include any previous stays in other homes.

the average amount of time spent in a care home before death is around 13 months

This appears to be fake news. 26 months is the figure given by parliament for the average length of stay.

Yes it's 26 months - but lower ( around a year) in nursing homes, so that may be why there's confusion.

@cathyandclare

it can take time to die from Covid

Hospital deaths from COVID after 28 days are still being counted if it is mentioned on the death certificate. So people who are on ITU for long periods before dying are still in the official counts.

This is from the NHS England notification guidelines:

For the purposes of CPNS reporting, there is a time limit of 28 days by which the positive COVID- 19 test result should be documented onto CPNS. In instances where a patient has had a positive test result >28 days prior to death, this death would not be reportable onto CPNS unless COVID- 19 is cited in part 1 or part 2 of the death certificate.

They are counted in some stats but not others. They aren’t counted in the daily death stats though. This is from the dashboard: People who died from COVID-19 but had not tested positive are not included and people who died from COVID-19 more than 28 days after their first positive test are not included.

26 months is the figure given by parliament for the average length of stay.

26 months is indeed the average total length of stay but if we want to calculate the average residual period of stay taking account of the fact that most residents have in fact have been there for a while and assuming the normal distribution, we need to divide 26 months by 2. This gives us 13 months.

88% of covid deaths happen within 28 days, 96% within 60 days, some are aggravated by other conditions. Previously a lot of other deaths were being erroneously included by PHE. The difference currently is a very small number.
If you want to keep track, the deaths within 28 days are reported here every day about 4/4.30pm:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths?areaType=overview&areaName=United Kingdom.
Weekly on a Friday, the surveillance report includes a round-up with deaths every 28 and 60 days, so you can look at that too (charts on pages 27-28 this week):
www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports.