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Original poster

Why are we not mentioning the CV death numbers anymore?

78 replies

Mrschickpeabody · 22/08/2020 08:25

Loads of reports on the numbers of new cases daily, local lockdowns and the like. But no mention of the fact the death rate is incredibly low and falling.

OP posts:
bingbong1970 · 22/08/2020 09:34

@Schmoana

Personally I think the new 28 day criteria (only registered as CV if had a positive test within last 28 days) is skewing the figures incorrectly down. The real figure will be excess deaths which will only be known in retrospect.

I’m sure about a week and a half ago the daily figure for deaths was 180, now it’s near zero, the truth will be somewhere in between .

Brilliant. The numbers of deaths are being skewed down as they're finally reported a bit more accurately after five months. This country is so screwed.
Eyewhisker · 22/08/2020 09:35

Derby - that’s true but the impact is cumulative. Excess deaths were very high for a short period and are slightly negative for a long period which is exactly what you would expect. It has already taken total excess deaths from 65k in May to now just over 60k and falling. There obviously will still be excess deaths by year end, but on current trends in the region of 50k or below which would be a significant difference.

Of course, it will be hard to disentangle from the NHS stopping services for other treatments e.g. cancer etc which will also cause deaths. Even now there are areas where the NHS still has not restarted any elective surgery.

bingbong1970 · 22/08/2020 09:37

@Tomatoesneedtogrow

its not going away op
Yes it is going away.
FluffyKittensinabasket · 22/08/2020 09:39

CallmeAngelina - let me see...

The government is begging me to go back to work in an office and to go out to eat and shop. So I can sit in an office all day without a mask and I can also eat out without a mask and the virus won’t get me. Oh but I can’t see more than one other household in my house. The NHS is recording around 1 death a day. The NHS and the economy are fucked.

I wear a face covering because I’ve been told to, I don’t like it.

I don’t believe I have a risk of being infected at work but hey, I’m pregnant so my risk assessment says I should work from home so I’m WFH as that makes my life much easier.

Yeah, I’m a bit tired of this now.

TheKeatingFive · 22/08/2020 09:40

Given that cases only started going up in August and there is a lag before that becomes hospitalisation and death, it’s not too surprising is it?

Cases started going up towards the end of July really. It’s been 4/5 weeks of increases now.

I looked back at March figures, hospitalisations followed case rises pretty rapidly (within the week). That isn’t happening now.

Eyewhisker · 22/08/2020 09:40

We do know that deaths have been brought forward. Almost half of covid deaths were in care homes. The average care home resident has a life expectancy of one year.

Other people may have lived for years or decades but it is clear that in the care home sector at least, many of the deaths were brought forward from later in the year. It is of course terrible for the families - particularly that they were not allowed to be with their loved one - but simply not comparable to the death of someone in their 40s or 50s with decades of life and dependent family members.

BowlerHatPowerHat · 22/08/2020 09:54

So presumably you think the Scottish figures, which have always used the 28 day rule, have always been incorrect and too low?
The podcast 'More or Less' looked into this and reported that Scotland had been reporting zero deaths for x number of days (with the 28 day rule) but deaths in that period with CV on death certificate was something like 35.

Tomatoesneedtogrow · 22/08/2020 09:57

it may last for 2 years

MereDintofPandiculation · 22/08/2020 10:12

The average care home resident has a life expectancy of one year. Actually, a bit over two years.A bit longer in care homes, a bit less in nursing homes.

notevenat20 · 22/08/2020 10:15

We do know that deaths have been brought forward.

It's a funny expression is that is the definition of death.

I am sure some people who died would have died in the next couple of months anyway. I am just not sure it's a large number

notevenat20 · 22/08/2020 10:24

but simply not comparable to the death of someone in their 40s or 50s with decades of life and dependent family members.

The average number of years an 80 year old has to look forward to is 9. We need to be careful not to think all old people are about to kick the bucket!

epythymy · 22/08/2020 10:26

Presumably the same reason we're no longer reporting the number of tests taken so we can't work out what percentage of the tests performed are positive and assess whether or not they fall into the category of being probably false positives

epythymy · 22/08/2020 10:28

@FluffyKittensinabasket

I imagine when deaths are zero a day we will still be screeched at to wear masks for the next 50 years and to social distance.
Due to the rate of false positives the rate will never, ever be 0.
epythymy · 22/08/2020 10:31

@Schmoana

Hardbackwriter - yes probably Scottish figures have been too low. Very hard to say which is why excess deaths Is probably going to be the best measure. But even then, there will be arguments as to the reason for the excess deaths - were they caused because of Covid or because of lockdown? I deal with deaths as part of a pension Scheme and have seen more Covid deaths on death certs than suicides but not many more! Totally anecdotal though
So do you think that if someone who is in their 90s has cancer, heart failure, kidney disease, dementia and is in and out of hospital on a regular basis anyway gets asymptomatic Covid and then dies several weeks later that their death is going to have been due to Covid?
epythymy · 22/08/2020 10:33

[quote Derbygerbil]@Eyewhisker

Perhaps, but excess deaths rose to 100% above normal in April, but were just 2% below recently - similar to February and so not really of any statistical significance.[/quote]
I predict that deaths this winter will be significantly below average, thus balancing it out. We haven't had a heavy flu season for several years. There was a large population waiting to be pushed over the edge. If this had have happened in September, general population wouldn't have even noticed. It'd be pretty much the same as 2017.

MorrisZapp · 22/08/2020 10:37

The 'three week lag' has been anticipated on here ever since the first week of lockdown. Easter, mother's day, VE day etc. And the spikes never came. Perhaps the current rise in cases will lead to a rise in deaths but I personally don't think it will be a significant rise.

IceCreamAndCandyfloss · 22/08/2020 10:39

I think they should publish those suffering with related health problems after the infection has cleared. So many have had complications and I wonder how many are aware that previously healthy people now have a whole host of problems long after the virus.

It may make a few more adhere to the guidelines.

Schmoana · 22/08/2020 10:44

So do you think that if someone who is in their 90s has cancer, heart failure, kidney disease, dementia and is in and out of hospital on a regular basis anyway gets asymptomatic Covid and then dies several weeks later that their death is going to have been due to Covid?

No but I think that my friend who was 53 and died after 6 weeks should have been registered as Covid

Chloemol · 22/08/2020 10:47

It’s reported daily

Derbygerbil · 22/08/2020 11:12

If this had have happened in September, general population wouldn't have even noticed. It'd be pretty much the same as 2017.

The Covid “death spike” was massively steeper and higher than the rise in 2017 due to flu, albeit the 2017-18 flu outbreak wasn’t mitigated or suppressed in any way remotely comparable to Covid so was able to persist for many months with an ultimate result of 50,000 or so excess deaths. Don’t forget that most care homes didn’t actually see outbreaks and 2.2 million highly vulnerable people shielded, so comparing the 2017-18 flu season and Covid is ridiculous. I have some respect for the argument that we locked down too hard and should have adopted an approach more like Sweden, but I don’t see why those that believe lockdown was a mistake have to stretch their arguments far too far and undermine their whole position as a result.

Tomatoesneedtogrow · 22/08/2020 11:31

social distancing and hygiene precautions should be a way of life

KitKatastrophe · 22/08/2020 12:15

@Schmoana

So do you think that if someone who is in their 90s has cancer, heart failure, kidney disease, dementia and is in and out of hospital on a regular basis anyway gets asymptomatic Covid and then dies several weeks later that their death is going to have been due to Covid?

No but I think that my friend who was 53 and died after 6 weeks should have been registered as Covid

Did he die in hospital? If so covid would have been on his death certificate and therefore he would be counted.
KitKatastrophe · 22/08/2020 12:19

@SirSamuelVimesBlackboardMonito

Because 'Sharp Rise in Cases' is a better headline than 'Five Times Fewer Deaths From Covid Than Flu' or 'Three People in their 80s With Pre-existing Conditions Died Today'.
Exactly this. All the news throughout this crisis has been negative and people lap it up. You only have to look on here when someone tries to start a positive thread and a bunch of people come on and start posting negative stuff or calling them dreamers.
Schmoana · 22/08/2020 13:06

I don’t think that’s correct Kit

Why are we not mentioning the CV death numbers anymore?
cathyandclare · 22/08/2020 13:18

I think it's the PHE figures that were changed by the new 28 day limit. They now release figures for 28 and 60 days.]
The ONS will include anyone with Covid on the death certificate.
The NHS England figures are from the Covid Patient Notification System, so seem to be more robust than the PHE figures.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/CPNS-User-Guide-20200619.pdf