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Conflict in the Middle East

US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

1000 replies

RedTagAlan · 13/08/2026 11:40

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

OP posts:
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85
Newbutoldfather · 31/08/2026 12:11

@RedTagAlan ,

‘Just the old physics. Ballistic missiles have a parabolic trajectory. That's how Patriot can intercept them. Unless the Iranian genies have got magic spells that make big flaming ballistic missiles invisible to radar. Also the physics of payload, and what mass a mine must have to be able to sink/damage a ship.’

Now Physics is something I know about! If you studied projectiles at school, you will have learned about parabolas, because you neglected air resistance. But, if you put it back in, they follow a hyperbolic cosine path. That is also if you just lob them up and there is no further propellant. I believe the FAJR-5c has guidance.

They then drop a mine which parachutes down and drifts to the sea floor where it anchors. They don’t float. I suspect they are a pain in the butt to find and remove!

I understand why you are sceptical about U.S propaganda, but this story seems pretty reasonable to me.

RedTagAlan · 31/08/2026 12:26

Newbutoldfather · 31/08/2026 12:11

@RedTagAlan ,

‘Just the old physics. Ballistic missiles have a parabolic trajectory. That's how Patriot can intercept them. Unless the Iranian genies have got magic spells that make big flaming ballistic missiles invisible to radar. Also the physics of payload, and what mass a mine must have to be able to sink/damage a ship.’

Now Physics is something I know about! If you studied projectiles at school, you will have learned about parabolas, because you neglected air resistance. But, if you put it back in, they follow a hyperbolic cosine path. That is also if you just lob them up and there is no further propellant. I believe the FAJR-5c has guidance.

They then drop a mine which parachutes down and drifts to the sea floor where it anchors. They don’t float. I suspect they are a pain in the butt to find and remove!

I understand why you are sceptical about U.S propaganda, but this story seems pretty reasonable to me.

There you go then. You know how ballistics can be tracked. And if they are using a chute, you will know how that can be tracked.

And once you know where it is, either find it or avoid that area. If the area can't be avoided, then sweep it.

A high capacity drone would be better than a missile.

And no, frankly I struggle to believe anything that comes from Trump and his people.

OP posts:
Twiglets1 · 31/08/2026 13:07

Iran haven't denied that they were preparing to launch rockets and deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.

I haven't actually seen anyone questioning it apart from Red on Mumsnet.

TopPocketFind · 31/08/2026 13:25

From Sky News

Analysis: US desperation to keep strait clear of mines was motivation for its attack

Middle East correspondent Adam Parsons has said the renewed attacks between the US and Iran are all down to the Strait of Hormuz.
"Just a few days ago, the Americans declared they had freed the strait of mines," he explained.
"I think they're trying to give the impression that shipping is moving through the strait again, which it isn't, but they have taken away all the mines.
"The Iranians responded by setting up these rockets with the capacity to drop more mines into the strait, that's what was targeted by these American strikes."
Parsons said the key waterway remains the dominant theme in the war.
"That has been a focal point for so long," he said.
"I think that's why the Americans are so desperate to keep it clear, and that's why they attacked today."

Watch his full report...

Newbutoldfather · 31/08/2026 13:46

https://insights.windward.ai

news.usni.org/2026/08/28/strait-of-hormuz-tanker-transits-up-but-still-below-pre-war-levels

Some ships are transiting, mainly to and from China. But it’s not a lot. What they are doing about insurance, who knows?!

That Sky news correspondent seems to have been paid to state the obvious!

Strait of Hormuz | Windward Daily Intelligence

https://insights.windward.ai

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2026 14:00

Insurance - I think they are just paying a lot more for it.

According to an Al Jazeera article on 23rd July, insurance rates through Hormuz are currently four times the five-year average.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/23/how-shipping-insurance-rates-are-rising-as-hormuz-bab-al-mandeb-shut-down

JadeHare · 31/08/2026 14:53

Also from the WP. Not the first part, as it just covers points already made:

“The economy in Iran is horrible, but it’s not the Weimar Republic,” Alan Eyre, a former diplomat who served on the U.S. negotiating team that secured the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, said referring to early-1920s Germany, when inflation was so high that paper money became virtually worthless.
“The point at which Iranian leaders say, ‘Ouch, stop it,’ isn’t when they make concessions but when they start attacking stuff,” Eyre added. “They know they have an incentive to attack before the midterms to hurt Trump.””
“On Monday, Iran’s military said it targeted a base in the United Arab Emirates, a U.S. ally, a day after U.S. forces hit Iranian launchers that the U.S. military said were preparing to fire rockets from Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz.
The strikes marked the first publicly acknowledged attacks on Iranian forces in nearly a month. In retaliation, Iran also fired ballistic missiles at a Jordanian air base housing U.S. troops.
The Trump administration, facing concerns from within the Pentagon about dwindling munitions stocks and the sustainability of a continued military campaign, as well as rising frustration from the American public, has said that it is transitioning primarily to economic warfare.
But Iran has survived under some form of sanctions since the establishment of the Islamic republic in 1979.”
“During the first Trump administration, the country was placed under a “maximum pressure” campaign. Back then and now, Eyre said, a major stumbling block has been China, which is Iran’s top trade partner and unwilling to bend to pressure from Washington.
“We have been milking the sanctions cow for decades,” Eyre said, adding that Iranian leaders often benefit financially from sanctions, because they control the means to circumvent them.
China aside, the Trump administration may also be overestimating the ease with which it can isolate Iran from its neighbors in the Persian Gulf, U.S. allies that have voiced concern about damage to their own economies.
The UAE said Aug. 19 that it was halting all trade ties with Iran because of Iranian targeting of UAE tankers.
But Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who focuses on Iran, said that it is hard to imagine countries like the UAE — which is Iran’s second-largest trading partner after China — “just turning a switch and turning off decades and decades of economic integration.”

Excerpt From
“Iran, accustomed to sanctions, cites pain of new U.S. pressure but doesn’t bend”
Rachel Chason
The Washington Post
https://apple.news/Ac88dj9opSfC0UhT9Rl37Lg
This material may be protected by copyright.

Iran, accustomed to sanctions, cites pain of new U.S. pressure but doesn’t bend — The Washington Post

After decades of punitive measures on Tehran by the United States and its allies, experts said, it is unlikely the Trump administration's new sanctions will yield concessions.

https://apple.news/Ac88dj9opSfC0UhT9Rl37Lg

JadeHare · 31/08/2026 14:54

The whole article won’t copy. However, the link is there.

Newbutoldfather · 31/08/2026 14:55

@Twiglets1 ,

‘According to an Al Jazeera article on 23rd July, insurance rates through Hormuz are currently four times the five-year average.’

That is interesting.

They are really caught between Scylla and Charybdis. Be exploited by Iranians charging a dodgy toll or pay up for overpriced insurance (or probably both).

RedTagAlan · 31/08/2026 15:10

I saw on the Sky feed that Saudi Arabia are looking at taking loans to cover costs because of the war. I can't link Sky here sorry, so just this not great site to go by. One for the money people to talk about.

Saudis to raise about $8B in loans amid war fallout | Bloomberg News (businessmirror.com.ph)

I don't understand this, as the article says they have $900 billion in a sovereign wealth fund. Does this mean their oil is not getting out ?

OP posts:
Newbutoldfather · 31/08/2026 15:24

@RedTagAlan ,

‘I don't understand this, as the article says they have $900 billion in a sovereign wealth fund. Does this mean their oil is not getting out ?’

That is very strange indeed!

My AI seems to suggest that current spending exceeds current revenue and they are borrowing to fund mega projects.

And that they would prefer to do that than sell off ‘illiquid investments’ in ‘poor market conditions’. Only problem with that is that market conditions aren’t poor at all. Stocks are close to all time highs and trading on huge multiples.

Maybe they don’t want to crash the markets or have been asked not to, and maybe they value the banking relationships they build by paying bank fees on the borrowings.

But, it doesn’t really make sense to me at all.

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2026 15:54

Aren't Saudi Arabia investing in lots of new infrastructure projects?

Also considering expanding the capacity of its crude oil pipeline to the western Red Sea coast which would enable it to transport more oil without crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

Newbutoldfather · 31/08/2026 15:57

@Twiglets1 ,

Yes, but they have $900 bio in investments.

They can afford to pay in cash!

JadeHare · 31/08/2026 16:01

Hope you are not talking about projects like The Mile. Which has been brought down to less than a kilometre. And even that is dubious.

Twiglets1 · 31/08/2026 16:03

Newbutoldfather · 31/08/2026 15:57

@Twiglets1 ,

Yes, but they have $900 bio in investments.

They can afford to pay in cash!

AI has helped me here

NEOM is a massive $500-billion-plus futuristic regional development project in northwestern Saudi Arabia launched in 2017 as a core part of Saudi Vision 2030 to diversify the nation's economy.

The budget has overrun massively. And this is just one of their mega projects, albeit I imagine the most expensive!

BelleHathor · 31/08/2026 17:24

The Liar in chief has made more outrageous unevidenced claims on Truth Social:

"“They have no Navy, they have no Air Force, they have no currency, they are not paying their soldiers or police, Inflation is at 300%, and their leadership is in total disarray and incapable of properly representing the country,” Trump wrote on Monday. “The only thing they have is FAKE NEWS from the USA, a willingness to kill their protesters (now over 100,000 people dead. They must be tried for war crimes against humanity!), and a good line of ‘BULLs—.’”

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6060630-us-iran-exchange-strikes/

The bolded number keeps getting higher (Trump said 54'000 the other day) as it is a complete fiction and frankly it's an IQ test now regarding anyone who believes a thing he says, looking at Fox News viewers.

More fireworks tonight and 64 days and 2 hours until the midterms.

JadeHare · 01/09/2026 02:19

WSJ:

“Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war was the gateway for a fifth of the world’s oil, has been a source of leverage for Tehran in the war and the talks to end it. The U.S. has waged a vigorous campaign to shake its hold and restore freedom of navigation.
At the heart of the fight is a fundamental imbalance of mine warfare. Iran doesn’t necessarily need to sink ships. It only needs to persuade shipowners, captains and insurers that the risk of encountering a mine while transiting the strait is too high to make the trip.
For the U.S., however, which wants to ensure safe passage, the mission is harder. It needs to disable or remove every mine.”
Iran has exploited its geography and used dispersed, low-profile weapons as it seeks to seed mines and keep shipping at risk. The U.S. uses air and naval patrols and firepower in an effort to suppress threats as they emerge.
“So long as there is a track record of the strait being mined and of Iranians possessing large amounts of mines, it means shipowners will consider it too risky,” said Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy at King’s College London.
Iran’s purported attempt to fire mines into the strait by rocket highlights the complexity of the U.S. effort to clear the vital waterway of the explosives and keep its shipping lanes open.
The American strike came days after President Trump said the U.S. had removed or detonated all mines in the waterway and warned that any vessel laying new ones would be destroyed.”
“Trump reimposed a naval blockade in mid-July, barring Iranian oil and other goods from entering and leaving its ports. The Navy, meanwhile, has been eating into Iran’s control of the strait by steadily shepherding tankers through the waterway.
Iran’s attempt to re-mine the strait indicates its frustration that the U.S. blockade has tilted the balance in the strait, said Eliot Cohen, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
The geography of the strait magnifies the weapon’s impact. Commercial ships are concentrated into narrow lanes that constrict their ability to dodge mines and can make them easier to target.
Mines offer many advantages in modern naval warfare. They are relatively easy to acquire or make, and they are easy to move and deploy.”
“Militaries have, however, relied on mines for centuries. During the American Revolution, George Washington authorized an inventor to send explosive kegs against British shipping on the Delaware River, though the attack failed to hit its targets. In the 1850s, Russia made the first systematic defensive use of naval mines during the Crimean War, which the British countered with an early form of minesweeper.
By World War II, U.S. planes were able to lay more than 12,000 mines around Japan, sinking or badly damaging about 670 ships, according to the U.S. Navy Naval History and Heritage Command.
Part of the challenge for the U.S. today is the many tactics Iran can use to get mines into the water.
Iran’s regular navy has largely been destroyed but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still has large numbers of small, fast boats hidden along the coast that could drop mines.”
“Iran also has demonstrated a more unusual method: firing them into the sea from shore. During a naval exercise in 2025, the Revolutionary Guard demonstrated a system using a Fajr-5 rocket to deploy a sea mine at a distance.
Such a method could allow Iran to seed waters quickly without exposing a mine-laying vessel to U.S. forces. The U.S. hasn’t said whether the launchers struck Sunday were Fajr-5 systems, and details of the Iranian payload remained unclear.
Thomas Shugart, a naval consultant and former U.S. Navy officer, was surprised to hear of sea mines deployed from rocket launchers. Still, the size of the rockets suggests that any mines fired with them would likely be relatively small and simple, unlike the larger ones navies are accustomed to, he said.
The U.S. military nevertheless took them seriously enough to warrant destroying them, he said.
If Iran manages to lay more mines, then U.S. forces are left with the hard task of locating and clearing them.”
“Specialized naval vessels sweep wires through the water to cut the cables or chains that anchor mines to the seabed so they surface and can be destroyed, but that is dangerous in the contested waters of the strait. Alternatively, specially-equipped vessels, drones or aircraft mimic the magnetic fields, pressure or noise created by a passing ship to detonate the mines before they can do any harm.
U.S. Central Command said last week that American forces had cleared Iranian mines from the internationally recognized shipping lanes using Navy divers, Navy SEALs and American air power.
Such efforts will continue to be tested if the battle for the strait shifts from clearing a one-time minefield to keeping the same stretch of water continuously open. Some experts say no mine-clearance operation can guarantee every mine is gone.”
““The most important point is that mine warfare is a game of unknowns,” said Scott Savitz, senior engineer at Rand and specialist in naval operations and technologies. “It’s never possible to say with complete certainty that all mines have been eliminated, only that the risk has been reduced to acceptable levels.”
Patalano said Iran’s proximity to the strait and the ability to disperse small boats, mines and other weapons along its coast make it difficult to eliminate the threat entirely. Even after a lane has been cleared, U.S. and allied forces have to prevent Iranian forces from slipping through and laying new mines.
“When you say it’s all demined, that’s only until the next time someone manages to slip through whatever measures that you put in place to control it and mine it again,” Patalano said.”

Excerpt From
“Mine Warfare With Iran Hampers U.S. Efforts to Win Control of Hormuz”
Alistair MacDonald, Georgi Kantchev
The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/AKaC2PFcTTzSKs_o6o8EyCw
This material may be protected by copyright.

Mine Warfare With Iran Hampers U.S. Efforts to Win Control of Hormuz — The Wall Street Journal

U.S. mission to speed traffic through strait hangs on unbalanced fight against underwater risks

https://apple.news/AKaC2PFcTTzSKs_o6o8EyCw

rainingsnoring · 01/09/2026 07:13

Newbutoldfather · 31/08/2026 15:57

@Twiglets1 ,

Yes, but they have $900 bio in investments.

They can afford to pay in cash!

I really don't think this is correct.
My understanding is that Saudi have taken on a lot of debt over the massive NEOM project, which has now been scaled back a lot.
Also, a lot of their $$ is in the US and they obviously will not be allowed to withdraw it, particularly given the situation with the US treasury market. I'm sure they want to build alternative routes for sure but these take time, several years and would also be open to attack.

Newbutoldfather · 01/09/2026 07:38

@rainingsnoring ,

‘Also, a lot of their $$ is in the US and they obviously will not be allowed to withdraw it, particularly given the situation with the US treasury market. I'm sure they want to build alternative routes for sure but these take time, several years and would also be open to attack.’

How on earth would they be stopped from selling their USD assets?! They are not under sanctions.

They aren’t idiots, either, so that they would do it gradually and anonymously (via getting investment banks to buy large lots at sub market price and then slowly selling them on).

The debt issue in the article was for $8bio. Just to give you an idea of the depth of the U.S treasury market, today they are auctioning off $52 bio of one year t bills. That market could absorb a sale of 8bio across the maturity spectrum without blinking.

JadeHare · 01/09/2026 07:54

Yes, I meant the NEOM project. Used to be called The Line, jokingly called The Mile. Except in latest reports it was scaled back to a kilometre. Not even likely to be even that.

Twiglets1 · 01/09/2026 09:11

JadeHare · 01/09/2026 07:54

Yes, I meant the NEOM project. Used to be called The Line, jokingly called The Mile. Except in latest reports it was scaled back to a kilometre. Not even likely to be even that.

The Line is only part of the NEOM project. Which started at an estimated cost of $500 billion but has been scaled back because of overrunning budget.

rainingsnoring · 01/09/2026 09:57

Newbutoldfather · 01/09/2026 07:38

@rainingsnoring ,

‘Also, a lot of their $$ is in the US and they obviously will not be allowed to withdraw it, particularly given the situation with the US treasury market. I'm sure they want to build alternative routes for sure but these take time, several years and would also be open to attack.’

How on earth would they be stopped from selling their USD assets?! They are not under sanctions.

They aren’t idiots, either, so that they would do it gradually and anonymously (via getting investment banks to buy large lots at sub market price and then slowly selling them on).

The debt issue in the article was for $8bio. Just to give you an idea of the depth of the U.S treasury market, today they are auctioning off $52 bio of one year t bills. That market could absorb a sale of 8bio across the maturity spectrum without blinking.

Of course the US would intervene if Saudi, the UAE, etc wanted to sell huge amounts of US bonds. They have already intervened in the Japanese currency markets to try to stabilise their bond market. It is a major concern for them.They are already doing clever tricks to try to manage their huge debt.

I obviously don't know the extent of Saudi and UAE's financial problems but they are likely to be significant. The UAE already asked for US dollar swap lines months ago and, I think, threatened to go to the Chinese if the US didn't oblige.

Back to the 'why on earth would they be stopped selling US assets?' question, I think we will see increasing financial repression in many countries over time.

BelleHathor · 01/09/2026 10:38

rainingsnoring · 01/09/2026 09:57

Of course the US would intervene if Saudi, the UAE, etc wanted to sell huge amounts of US bonds. They have already intervened in the Japanese currency markets to try to stabilise their bond market. It is a major concern for them.They are already doing clever tricks to try to manage their huge debt.

I obviously don't know the extent of Saudi and UAE's financial problems but they are likely to be significant. The UAE already asked for US dollar swap lines months ago and, I think, threatened to go to the Chinese if the US didn't oblige.

Back to the 'why on earth would they be stopped selling US assets?' question, I think we will see increasing financial repression in many countries over time.

Yup, correct on the UAE asking for a swap line.

Bessent is currently doing his best impression of a magician trying to pull a rabbit out of the increasing US debt:

AI Overview
The U.S. Treasury is buying back its long-term debt to lower surging interest rates and improve trading stability in the bond market.

Why the Treasury is Doing This
Lowering Borrowing Costs: Long-term bond yields—especially the 30-year bond—recently hit their highest levels in nearly two decades. When the government buys its own bonds, demand goes up. Higher demand raises bond prices, which forces interest rates (yields) down.
The New York Times +2

Fixing Market Stress: The U.S. Treasury Department targets older, less active bonds. Buying these securities helps dealers trade more easily and keeps the financial plumbing running smoothly.

Expanding the Program: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a plan to double the size of these buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9, 2026.
How the Operation Works
Instead of printing new money, the Treasury swaps long-term debt for short-term debt. It buys back the old 30-year bonds and replaces them by issuing short-term Treasury bills. This changes the maturity length of the national debt without creating new cash in the economy.
Forbes +1

rainingsnoring · 01/09/2026 11:52

BelleHathor · 01/09/2026 10:38

Yup, correct on the UAE asking for a swap line.

Bessent is currently doing his best impression of a magician trying to pull a rabbit out of the increasing US debt:

AI Overview
The U.S. Treasury is buying back its long-term debt to lower surging interest rates and improve trading stability in the bond market.

Why the Treasury is Doing This
Lowering Borrowing Costs: Long-term bond yields—especially the 30-year bond—recently hit their highest levels in nearly two decades. When the government buys its own bonds, demand goes up. Higher demand raises bond prices, which forces interest rates (yields) down.
The New York Times +2

Fixing Market Stress: The U.S. Treasury Department targets older, less active bonds. Buying these securities helps dealers trade more easily and keeps the financial plumbing running smoothly.

Expanding the Program: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a plan to double the size of these buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9, 2026.
How the Operation Works
Instead of printing new money, the Treasury swaps long-term debt for short-term debt. It buys back the old 30-year bonds and replaces them by issuing short-term Treasury bills. This changes the maturity length of the national debt without creating new cash in the economy.
Forbes +1

It's complicated!
They are struggling to control the bond market at the longer ends so appear to be borrowing at the short end to pay off the longer term bonds. At the short end, the Fed can reduce the interest rates, lowering the carrying cost of the US debt. At least that's the theory but now, some moron started a war in Iran because Netanyahu told him it would be an easy victory like Venezuela, and the Fed is talking tough because inflation has already risen as a result. I think we still get lower rates before too long and then QE to the moon.

Newbutoldfather · 01/09/2026 11:52

@rainingsnoring ,

‘Of course the US would intervene if Saudi, the UAE, etc wanted to sell huge amounts of US bonds. They have already intervened in the Japanese currency markets to try to stabilise their bond market. It is a major concern for them.They are already doing clever tricks to try to manage their huge debt.’

I guess it depends what you mean by ‘huge amounts’ and ‘intervene’ but you are mad if you think they would somehow be forbidden to sell them or that there is even a mechanism to do so!

The reason U.S treasuries are an investment of choice for so many is their liquidity. They can be bought and sold instantly in huge quantities. Many years ago when I used to trade U.S treasuries (inter alia) you used to see $1bio of 30 year bonds (longest duration) trade on the Cantor Fitzgerald screen in about a second!

If you couldn’t sell treasuries, no one would buy them! They have the lowest yield of any U.S debt instrument and that is, at least partly, due to their liquidity.

Obviously, if a nation, say, wanted to sell $20 billion of treasuries, I am sure the U.S would appreciate a heads up. But do remember, as I posted earlier, they regularly hold auctions in the 10s of billions, which are easily absorbed.

(And I believe the Yen intervention was to help the Japanese, and to stop financial disruption due to the Yen carry trade).

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