ONS 2022 PREDICTIONS THREAD

[ZoyaTheDestroyer]

Roll up and give your best ONS Baby Names 2022 predictions!

It’s that time again. The ONS baby name data for England and Wales in 2022 is due to be published any day now and MNers tend to be pretty spot on with their predictions.

To help, here’s a reminder of the top tens for boys and girls from 2021:

1 Noah
2 Oliver
3 George
4 Arthur
5 Muhammad
6 Leo
7 Harry
8 Oscar
9 Archie
10 Henry

1 Olivia
2 Amelia
3 Isla
4 Ava
5 Ivy
6 Freya
7 Lily
8 Florence
9 Mia
10 Willow

The Scottish data for 2022 has been out since March and the top tens (well, top 11 for boys) for Scotland were:

1 Noah
2 Jack
3 Leo
4 Harris
5 Luca
6 Oliver
7 Rory
8 Archie
9= Theo
9= Alfie
9= James

1 Olivia
2 Isla
3 Freya
4 Millie
5 Emily
6 Amelia
7= Grace
7= Sophie
9= Ella
9= Ava

The biggest climbers in Scotland were Luca and Maeve, and I certainly expect the latter to make a significant jump in the E&W data too.

Let’s have your predictions, please!

@mum1345 . They sound very similar. I'd say Emilia as Em-ill-ya. I don't like the Ah-MEE-li-a sound.
Sophia/Sofia would be high up too.

Oo yes hadn't thought of the Sofia/Sophia variations!

You're right they do have a difference in pronunciation. If you say oh quick enough they sound exactly the same 😂

I reckon Margot and Otis will be big climbers.

The figures are for 2022, so although Margot will probably be much higher, it will probably be in the top 5 in 2023.

@mum1345 , I've got them mixed up a few times.

It was only #57 in 2021 and a jump of even ten places is pretty meteoric in terms of name popularity, where trends move slowly. The number of Margots born in any one year would need to triple in order to bother the top five. It will very likely break the top 50 in the 2022 data.

@ZoyaTheDestroyer , it leapt from #80 to #57 between 2020 and 2021, and from #156 to #99 between 2017 and 2018.
it also sounds quite different to the vowelly or princessy names, so it could be that new parents might think it was unusual and fresh.

We'll see.

Yes, we'll see. I think Aria will have shot up. I don't know any, or even like it, but it sort of fits in with the vowelly names. Same goes for Eden. Vowelly and naturey.

I agree that Margot is highly unlikely to be top 5 (yet) but I do think the long delay in the release of the results these days is contributing to higher leaps than ever before with some names. Some of the jumps to reach the top 100 in recent years have been crazy!

Personally I don't know any girls called Margot (it would be considered quite posh around here) but it's mentioned on name forums all the time, so I'd hazard a guess it was definitely in the top 50 in 2022 and is likely to rise again in 2023 with many people picking it still oblivious just how popular it is now. 2024 could be the year it dips a bit again, once people realise just how high it has soared in such a sort period of time.

If these lists were still released at the end of each year, rather than 3/4s the way through the next some people might change their mind on their chosen name if they were aware just how popular it had become the previous year. As it is, 2023 is nearly over and parents to be still only have the 2021 data to go on so no real idea how popular their chosen name really is right now.

Margot has been on a steep upward trend since 2013, so I think it could be in the top 35. I know that is one heck of a leap, but it's so popular on here.

As regards popularity of names putting parents off, unless they mix with lots of other new parents, they might not know that names are very popular until the child goes to school. I don't know a single young Oliver, young Arthur or Roman but they're #2, #4 and #23.

When is the list going to come out? I don’t understand why it’s taking so long, surely they have had the data for ages

It could be worse, I suppose. They used to release the data once a decade!

🤣

@LiquoriceAllsorts2

has anyone emailed or contacted ONS for an update on the release date. I imagine they're busy but there is contact details on the last release so I'm wondering if to ask. The last 5-10 years the data was out by this time of the year.

Someone has asked James Tucker from the ONS on Twitter (own up if it was one of you!) and he has replied today saying "we don't have a date as yet, but we'll announce it as soon as we know."

Thanks @ZoyaTheDestroyer how strange!

God that dosent sound promising does it!

This is ridiculous now we're in bloody November!

I hope the stats come out soon. How long can it take - we're only about 7 weeks away from 2024!

People are totally going to assume they are the 2023 stats when they finally come out aren't they? Given that the year is practically over.

I tried to check if the data had been released and instead I found this FOI request: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/2022babynamesrankings

Sounds like the 2022 names will be released March 2024.

How strange

I truly don’t understand the delay. Two months after England and Wales release their 2022 name data, the USA will release their 2023 data.

I love that someone got so fed up of waiting that they did a FOI request. I wonder if they are a MNer.

Might be. I predict parents looking at darkgreener's latest figures and naming their 2024 baby a name they think is unusual, only to find that the name has shot up since 2021.

Q: Elizabeth or Margot?
A: Margot because it's so underused and Elizabeth will be overused because of the late Queen.
2028: Little Margot sits in a class of 8 Margots and a Lizzie and a Bette (2 Elizabeths)