ONS 2022 PREDICTIONS THREAD

[ZoyaTheDestroyer]

Roll up and give your best ONS Baby Names 2022 predictions!

It’s that time again. The ONS baby name data for England and Wales in 2022 is due to be published any day now and MNers tend to be pretty spot on with their predictions.

To help, here’s a reminder of the top tens for boys and girls from 2021:

1 Noah
2 Oliver
3 George
4 Arthur
5 Muhammad
6 Leo
7 Harry
8 Oscar
9 Archie
10 Henry

1 Olivia
2 Amelia
3 Isla
4 Ava
5 Ivy
6 Freya
7 Lily
8 Florence
9 Mia
10 Willow

The Scottish data for 2022 has been out since March and the top tens (well, top 11 for boys) for Scotland were:

1 Noah
2 Jack
3 Leo
4 Harris
5 Luca
6 Oliver
7 Rory
8 Archie
9= Theo
9= Alfie
9= James

1 Olivia
2 Isla
3 Freya
4 Millie
5 Emily
6 Amelia
7= Grace
7= Sophie
9= Ella
9= Ava

The biggest climbers in Scotland were Luca and Maeve, and I certainly expect the latter to make a significant jump in the E&W data too.

Let’s have your predictions, please!

My baby may need to be delivered in late May (baby is measuring as large and is also currently breech). I think I'm resigned now to having no stats for 2022 to help me choose a name.

@toastofthetown thanks for sharing the info. I really can’t see how they’ll get back on track.

@DemelzaRobins yep, I’m due in late May and will assume I also won’t get to see any data until she’s been here a while. Feels like Sod’s Law.

It is irritating. I've been an avid follower of the baby name stats for over 10 years, now I'm finally having a baby the ONS has decided to have a meltdown with them. Sod's law!

Also irritating that DH likes a lot of trendy names which feasibly could be much more popular now compared to 2021 stats. I'm not necessarily going to reject on that basis but I'd rather know ahead of time instead of afterwards.

I feel for those of you with the hard deadline of a baby’s arrival!

The Scottish statistics for 2023 should be out soon (their 2022 data was published on 30 March 2023) so that might give a few clues.

@DemelzaRobins same, I've always loved baby name stats, then we struggled to conceive for years and I'd read the lists and think about what I might do if it ever worked and we could pick a name. And then it did work 5 years on, and now I can't use the data :/

I'd like to know the top 10 even, in case I want to steer clear of them. It's disappointing.

@ZoyaTheDestroyer is there usually some overlap? I might check those out

@thislittlebird if you go back to the first page and see my OP from last August (!) you can see the E&W top tens for 2021 and the Scottish top tens for 2022. The Scottish stats are a much smaller dataset but there is quite a lot of overlap.

@ZoyaTheDestroyer thanks, will have a look for it!

I have a theory that the reason they are sitting on it is because Mohammed was #1 in 2022 and they know that people/the media will lose their minds over it and it will be used as election fodder. They are probably waiting for the election to be called, especially as they have said they are going to add it to their "birth information" this time. Why do that unless you want to contextualise? (https://tinyurl.com/4jd6r3hk)

Of course, it would be nonsense to make a big deal out of it, even if Mohammed is #1. Firstly, Mohammed has been the top name for more than a decade when spellings are added together. Secondly, only 6% of population in E&W is Muslim but whereas White British parents are actively seeking unique names, many Muslim parents use Mohammed as a first name (sometimes every boy in the family has it) but use a middle name for everyday life.

Currently, it is set "provisionally" for May (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/birthcharacteristicsinenglandandwales2022 ) but they are constantly moving the month.

I doubt it. Firstly, Muhammad is already the fifth most popular name and it’s unlikely that either the names above Muhammad would each decrease significantly enough for Muhammad to rank top, or Muhammad would have a significant uptick in use, unless there was a movement to register every Muhammad with the same spelling, which I'm not aware of. As you say it's already been the most popular name with combined spellings.

Also, if the ONS reverted to the pre-Covid release schedule then the list would have been published in August last year, far from this year’s general election. Even if they kept the Covid delay, that would have been October, where the stats would have been forgotten by election season. The longer it's delayed, the closer the release is to election season.

Well, in the ongoing absence of any data for England and Wales we will have to make do for now with the Scottish data for 2023! Full dataset available here: www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/names/babies-first-names/babies-first-names-2023

Boys top ten

1 Luca
2 Noah
3 Leo
4 Jack
5 Harris
6 Rory
7 Oliver
8 Theo
9 Archie
10 Finlay

Girls top ten

1 Isla
2 Olivia
3 Freya
4 Emily
5 Amelia
6 Ella
7 Charlotte
8 Millie
9 Grace
10 Ava

Big climbers: Margot, Mabel, Cillian, Oakley.

Thanks, ZoyaTheDestroyer

@ZoyaTheDestroyer ons has been updated - says 2022 stats will be released 1 week today - 17 may

Oh I hope it is, I have a c section booked for the 24th so fingers firmly crossed!

It's a confirmed date (finally) rather than an 'expected around' monthly estimate so will definitely be the 17th. Hallelujah!

@BoleynMemories13 very exciting! Would be cool to see what was climbing or falling etc most recently.

Oh brilliant, not due til October but I neeeed to find out if Winnie/Winifred has climbed any higher, it’s on all the trendy lists 😂

Noah was the most popular boys' name in England and Wales for the second year in a row, while Olivia remained the top name for girls for the seventh year in a row.

Isabella replaced Willow in the top 10 names for girls, while Theodore, Theo and Freddie replaced Harry, Archie and Henry in the top 10 names for boys.
Muhammad was the most popular boys' name in four out of nine English regions. Olivia was the top girls' name for every English region and Wales, except London where Amelia was the most popular girls' name.

Leon, Elias, Musa, Axel and Ibrahim were new entries to the top 100 for boys in 2022. Meanwhile, Charles, Harvey, Ollie and Nathan all dropped out of the top 100.

New entries to the top 100 for girls were Ophelia, Ottilie, Eloise, Nova and Fatima, while Beatrice, Anna, Holly, Heidi and Amber all left the top 100.
Baby names of Welsh origin featured among the most popular in Wales in 2022, with Mali, Seren and Eira among the top 50 for girls and Arthur, Osian, Elis, Harri and Jac among the top 30 for boys.
Top 10 boys' names England and Wales, 2022

1. Noah
2. Muhammad
3. George
4. Oliver
5. Leo
6. Arthur
7. Oscar
8. Theodore
9. Theo
10. Freddie

Top 10 girls' names England and Wales, 2022

1. Olivia
2. Amelia
3. Isla
4. Ava
5. Lily
6. Ivy
7. Freya
8. Florence
9. Isabella
10. Mia

Commenting on today's findings, James Tucker from the Office for National Statistics said:
"Noah was the most popular name for boys in 2022, for the second year in a row, having replaced Oliver at the top in 2021. Oliver has now slipped to fourth most popular boys' name, behind Muhammad and George.

"Olivia remained the most popular girls' name in 2022, having held the top spot since 2016. In second and third place for the girls it's Amelia and Isla, both unchanged from 2021.

"Theodore, Theo and Freddie are three new entries into the top 10 boys' names in 2022. Isabella is the only new entry into the girls' top 10."

Full datasets should be in the Data tab, but I can only see 2021 at the moment.

Just after I posted they appeared!
Girls
Boys

I've just come across this thread

Why do they only tell us now about baby names in 2022?

And I clicked on the link on the previous post but can't seem to get on the top 100 names still! 😭

If you click on these links here, download the Excel dataset, the full list is on Tab 6 😊
Girls
Boys

Yes it doesn't work for me.

Can someone copy and paste the top 100 girl names

@purpleme12 here you go x

1 Olivia
2 Amelia
3 Isla
4 Ava
5 Lily
6 Ivy
7 Freya
8 Florence
9 Isabella
10 Mia
11 Willow
12 Sienna
13 Poppy
14 Sophia
15 Elsie
16 Rosie
17 Grace
18 Millie
19 Emily
20 Sofia
21 Daisy
22 Evelyn
23 Evie
24 Phoebe
25 Ella
26 Charlotte
27 Harper
28 Maya
29 Matilda
30 Ruby
31 Aria
32 Penelope
33 Hallie
34 Luna
35 Bonnie
36 Ada
37 Emilia
38 Alice
39 Sophie
40 Esme
41 Isabelle
42 Maisie
43 Violet
44 Delilah
45 Mila
46 Eva
47 Arabella
48 Maeve
49 Aurora
50 Mabel
51 Ayla
52 Lottie
53 Eliza
54 Rose
55 Erin
56 Layla
57 Scarlett
58 Chloe
59 Margot
60 Elizabeth
61 Imogen
62 Eleanor
63 Orla
64 Thea
65 Harriet
66 Iris
67 Nancy
68 Emma
69 Jessica
70 Zara
71 Robyn
72 Gracie
73 Elodie
74 Olive
75 Maria
75 Maryam
77 Bella
78 Lola
78 Lyra
80 Lyla
81 Ophelia
82 Ellie
83 Ottilie
84 Molly
85 Lara
86 Myla
87 Eden
88 Eloise
89 Darcie
90 Lucy
91 Nova
92 Lilly
93 Clara
94 Jasmine
95 Edith
96 Summer
97 Amelie
98 Hannah
99 Fatima
99 Sara

Thanks

My child's name has always stayed just out of the top 100 till now