ONS 2022 PREDICTIONS THREAD

[ZoyaTheDestroyer]

Roll up and give your best ONS Baby Names 2022 predictions!

It’s that time again. The ONS baby name data for England and Wales in 2022 is due to be published any day now and MNers tend to be pretty spot on with their predictions.

To help, here’s a reminder of the top tens for boys and girls from 2021:

1 Noah
2 Oliver
3 George
4 Arthur
5 Muhammad
6 Leo
7 Harry
8 Oscar
9 Archie
10 Henry

1 Olivia
2 Amelia
3 Isla
4 Ava
5 Ivy
6 Freya
7 Lily
8 Florence
9 Mia
10 Willow

The Scottish data for 2022 has been out since March and the top tens (well, top 11 for boys) for Scotland were:

1 Noah
2 Jack
3 Leo
4 Harris
5 Luca
6 Oliver
7 Rory
8 Archie
9= Theo
9= Alfie
9= James

1 Olivia
2 Isla
3 Freya
4 Millie
5 Emily
6 Amelia
7= Grace
7= Sophie
9= Ella
9= Ava

The biggest climbers in Scotland were Luca and Maeve, and I certainly expect the latter to make a significant jump in the E&W data too.

Let’s have your predictions, please!

I don't know but I've been waiting since the beginning of August for them! Last years came out the 5th of Oct I think so hopefully should be any day now they seem to be later every year

It might have been updated since but when I looked the other day it didn’t appear on the calendar of forthcoming releases at all!

Thanks for answering Liv999 and ZoyaTheDestroyer.

No, it hasn't been updated. Last year's release still says next data due August/September 2023 (provisional), which has obviously been and gone now and, like you say, it's still not even on the upcoming release calendar which usually happens at least a few weeks before it comes out so I'm thinking November at the absolute earliest now.

It's a joke. They use to release the data at the end of the calendar year, then about 10 years ago it started being delayed until the following August. The last few years have been September/October and who knows for this year?

Problem is the data is now already quite out of date by the time it is released. Jan 2022 babies are nearly 2 now and we still don't know what the most popular names were for that period in time! No wonder we see sone names make such big leaps of 100 places or more these days as people have no idea how popular a name currently is if they're naming an Autumn baby, as the latest data available is still from 2 years ago in 2021. Something just outside the top 100 in 2021 may be top 50 by now. Not many look beyond the top 100 so probably think they've chosen something really unusual and nay end up disappointed to find they are now one of many.

Margot, Ezra and Teddy seem to be crazy popular.

Esme
Arlo
Theo/Teddy
Maeve
Olive
Lily

Based on names I'm hearing a lot of around here.

I think the ones that would of jumped up are..
Maeve
Margot
Romy
Arlo
Jude
Lottie
Lucas/Luca
Delilah
Mabel
Matilda
August

I can see Theo becoming a top 5 name as I hear a lot of them at school!

I was going to start a thread to ask if anyone had any info on this. I don’t know why it’s so late; the USA have more data to process and theirs is released in May! I got a bit worried when it wasn’t in upcoming releases any more. Hopefully that’s just because they have haven’t changed the expected date from Aug/Sept.

I wonder if this will be the year Ottilie will enter the top hundred. I’m also really curious on the other end of the chart to see if Lysander has had a shift. I’ve loved Lysander forever and I feel like over the last couple of years it’s had more and more positive mentions on name boards which often translates to an eventual real life increase.

@mum1345 , Theo is already the top name for boys if you combine Theo and Theodore. Some of the Theodores might be Theodore and some Teddy, but Theo is still probably more popular than Noah.

Arlo has got to be in it

Whilst Theo and Theodore are obviously very similar, just as many Theodores get shorted to Teddy as they do Theo so you can't really 'combine' them.

I agree Theo appears to be incredibly popular, either as a stand alone name or a short form of Theodore (as does Teddy either as a stand alone name or a short form of Theodore or Edward) but the ONS doesn't combine names for a reason.

If you did that, Muhammad/Mohammed/Mohammad etc would be way out in front anyway. Although in my experience many boys who have this name on their birth certificate don't actually go by that anyway, at least while they're young, as it's often an honour reserved for the eldest male in that bloodline, while others will go by their middle name despite being Muhammad on their birth certificate. So Muhammad perhaps doesn't feel quite as popular as the stats suggest.

my predictions for jumped up:

maeve
elodie
lyra
clementine
cqllie
juniper
wren
nova
dorothy
iris

jasper
casper
rex
otis
Rudy
Rowan
leo
arlo
kit

@BoleynMemories13 , i'm not sure about the Theo vs Teddy for Theodore, but all 3 are popular, as is Edward.
There are several variations of spellings for Mohammed, and combined they would be the most popular name for boys.

Whether or not the first or middle name is used, only the first shows up in the stats.

I think10 of the UK prime ministers of the past 100 years were known by their middle name, James being the top name. The one PM who went by James was using his middle name.

Well yes that was my point, that whatever the child is known as (by middle name, short form etc) only the full first name, as registered on the birth certificate, counts in these stats. Which is why some names can appear more or less popular than the stats suggest.

I've been surprised at Teddy's 'low' position the last few years as it really feels like a top 10 name around me. But when you consider how many boys called Theodore or Edward on the birth certificate will only ever go as Teddy you start to realise that it is actually far more popular than the position 'Teddy' as a stand alone name holds in the stats.

With regards to Theo, I totally understand the point being made that it's more popular than the 2021 position of 15th suggests, as many of those Theodores will indeed be known as 'Theo' too. I just disagreed that if you combined them it would be the top name as many Theodores will be known as Teddy/Ted, or only ever as Theodore, as well. Theo would definitely jump significantly if you considered all the Theodores who go by that name too, but we can't assume they all do as it's a versatile name with many options.

it's a versatile name with many options
Not really, just Theodore, Theo, Ted or Teddy. I don't like any of them. Other than Ted they seem faddy.
Edward is more versatile as it can be Edward, Ed, Eddie/Eddy, Ted, Ned, Teddy

Having said that, Teddy does seem popular. It's not very popular in my area, but Theo and Theodore are.

I'd say a name which has at least 4 commonly accepted 'versions' which the name barer may commonly be known as counts as versatile. Granted it's not quite as versatile as Edward, but my point was that we can't assume pretty much all Theodores will go by Theo, and that point still stands.

We can't assume it, but most probably will. Most of the adult Christophers I know go by Chris, although I know at least one who doesn't, Most of the Alexanders and Alexandras I know go by Alex, most of the Jonathans by Jon etc.
It seems more natural to shorten to Theo than Teddy.

I suspect that Teddy might be more popular where you are. There has been a thread in Chat about Vincent, popular in the OP's area, and mine, but not nationally.

These are the top 100 baby names for 2022 in the UK | Metro News. No idea what their lists are based on.

Think we'll just have to agree to disagree that 'most' called Theodore on the birth certificate will go by Theo, as in my experience just as many are shortened to Ted or Teddy. That's all we can go on, our own personal experience, so it's only natural we won't agree if our experiences are different.

Personally I love to hear about how name trends vary so much from area to area. It fascinates me how some people can perceive a name to be overused whereas others will hardly know anyone with that name, simply based on where they live.

Regarding the popularity of Theo and Theodore, I do agree they seem to still be on the rise and won't be at all surprised to see both as seperate entries in the top 10 for 2022 when the stats are finally released.

The lists from a rival parenting site (as quoted in the Metro link) are usually way off. I believe they're simply based on what their members register their newborn's name as on their site. So they will include babies born all around the world, not just England and Wales. They'll also include many babies listed by their given name, rather than birth certificate name. To be honest, given how many trolls and fantasists are drawn to parenting websites, it's inevitable that some of them will be completely fictitious babies too.

So I'd say that website's list is a rough guide as to what may or may not be popular at any given time but some of the names will be well out on terms of overall position.

It wouldn't surprise me @BoleynMemories13 , I only cast a glance at it.
I wonder what a most popular list based on MN threads would be?

I'm hoping they cone out soon. Baby is due next month and I wanted to check the name we have chosen (and the common shortening which is often given as a stand alone name) hasn't suddenly gone crazy popular before we name him

I know lots of Theodores, and all of them are shortened to Theo. Teddy is mostly used as a given name, or as a shortening for Edward.

Seeing this on Active Threads I thought ONS was a "One Night Stand" list of baby names. Like the chavviest "unique - est" ones ever.

@Theredfoxfliesatmidnight , what like Condomsplit and Mapfailed?

If you combined Emilia/Amelia names together it would be number 1!
Too me that's the same name 😅