I don't even think this.
It's hybrid warfare. That's guerilla type tactics and strategic targeting to produce splits within the public of a country (think opposition for the Vietnam war within America being a key factor in the US withdrawal).
Donald Tusk has done a long speech about what he expects.
This is lifted from the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/sep/17/donald-trump-eu-european-union-mark-carney-canada-associate-membership-tariffs-threats-germany-merz-latest-news-updates
Intelligence shows Russian 'plans for hybrid strikes ... against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland,' Tusk says
Tusk says that intelligence assessments show “plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland”.
He says the latest intelligence on this is “very consistent and convincing”.
He says that Russia is expected to pretend that any incidents are “accidental” in a bid to “paralyse or at least weaken Nato’s resolve to invoke the relevant provisions” of the Nato treaty.
“There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles could be launched into the territory of one or more Nato countries on the eastern flank, and could even cause damage, and the official narrative will be that this is an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to consider any response from Nato.
The aim … will be to weaken Nato’s integrity in general and, above all, to convince … member states that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical – that is, the assumption that no one will want to die for Latvia or Lithuania, given that we are dealing with incidents rather than a declaration of war.”
He says he expects Russia to use “recurrent” incidents to use them as “an increasingly stark illustration of Nato’s helplessness” to respond in a united manner.
And
Tusk's stark warning about Russian plans for hybrid strikes against Ukraine's allies - summary
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has said that intelligence assessments show Russian “plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland” in the coming months (17:23).
In a sombre speech in the Polish parliament, Tusk warned that Poland will face ‘provocations ... far more dangerous that those we have faced so far’ (17:33) as Russia is expected to test Nato’s resolve in defending the territory of its members on the eastern flank.
The Polish prime minister cautioned that the coming autumn and winter is likely to be “the most critical moment” in Russia’s full-scale aggression on Ukraine (17:20).
Tusk said the available intelligence suggested Russia will pretend any incidents are “accidental” to further stress test Nato’s article 5.
Tusk also warned that some European parties “currently gaining in strength” are only “looking for an excuse” to not defend Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania, calling for a united response to any threat in the region (17:28).
AND
Tusk did not specifically reveal which intelligence agencies he was citing.
However, Poland’s security services minister Tomasz Siemoniak met CIA director John Ratcliffe last week, just days after his much-discussed trip to Russia.
Poland’s defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz is also planning to go to the US next week for urgent talks with US defence secretary Pete Hegseth.
Make of that what you will.
Tusk and other key ministers also repeatedly quoted Polish intelligence agencies in the past, whether in response to repeated security incidents, airspace provocations near Poland, or arrests of people suspected of planning acts of sabotage on behalf of Russian intelligence services.
AND
Some politicians 'just looking for excuses' to not defend Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Tusk warns
Tusk also talks about Poland’s absolute resolve to defence all other Nato countries.
He says “this is very important, because as. a border country … we are likely to need allied loyalty under Article 5 more than Portugal or Ireland.”
He continues:
“It is not the case that all politicians in the west, in the United States or in Europe, are thinking about how to defend Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and that they are all eager to prove immediately that they are staunch allies and will come to our aid under Article 5.
Far from all of them. There are many politicians, as well as political forces, which are currently gaining in strength and influence in European countries, who are just looking for an excuse: we won’t die for Poland; we won’t die for Latvia or Lithuania.”
He says that’s why Poland must be very openly ready to follow through on its allied commitments.
“Article 5, loyalty within the alliance, and faithfulness to our commitments must become our hallmark,” he says.
AND
In a strong speech, he continued:
“I am from Gdańsk. In May 1939, a certain French politician – a future Nazi collaborator – asked in the French press why anyone should die for Gdańsk. A few months later, the whole of Europe was dying.
To those who say today that this is not our war, I would like to remind them of this lesson from history. In 1939, our alliances existed only on paper, really. We were left on our own. Today, we are members of Nato and the European Union.”
We spend almost 5% of our GDP on defence. This is almost twice as much as Germany and twice as much as France. We are building one of the strongest armies in Europe; we secured €44bn from the EU’s SAFE programme, the most from all EU countries. And Polish borders are today the best marked borders on the entire continent.
Europe, which in 1939 did not want to die for Gdańsk, today funds Polish armaments.
But we are aware that even the largest army is not enough if the nation is not ready.
Therefore, I address all those who look at the future with anxiety:
We are not seeking war, but if anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response from us and our allies. Long live a free and secure Republic of Poland.”
Just to add Germany has closed its Consulate in St Petersburg today (the Embassy in Moscow is still open). And has already accused Russia of attempted sabotage attacks that were unsuccessful as well as there being a mysterious sabotage of the Dutch Railway system yesterday (no one implied on that but would be consistent with what's happened and what's been said.
Obviously France is having it's big internal meeting tomorrow which I'm guessing will include some of this.
Meanwhile BBC and UK Government: Total Crickets.
(And this is why I have posted in full due to this being buried on the Guardian and hidden away on twitter).