AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling?

[bagpuss90]

I get that we have been advised to stock up on essentials, though I think it will encourage panic buying. I will probably get a few days worth of stuff at some point . My friend however has, at least in my opinion gone ott about it. She’s stocking up a six month supply of food. She’s bought head torches, a camping gas stove and various other stuff. She thinks I’m being naive …Am I missing something here ?

Which one did you choose? It's one of the things I haven't got yet. I look at the loads of them on Amazon and just glaze over in indecision. Tins of beans are soooo much easier!

Explain more about pensions.

Most pension pots (defined contribution not defined benefit) are made up of investment units in funds which are stock market based.

If the markets are high a unit might be worth £50, if the markets contract the same unit is worth less so the overall pot is worth less.

This is an academic loss unless you crystalise it by taking money out which involves selling units at the lower price. Conversely of course if you are investing and buying units you will get more for your money which is a good thing.

For those drawing an income from DC pensions or stocks and shares ISAs they will have to sell more units to get the same amount of money in their hands.

Hope that makes sense

Alex Wickham AT Alexwickham

NEW: Andy Burnham has warned the budget will be “challenging” and he will have to take “difficult decisions” because of the deteriorating economic picture

“We will take difficult decisions to make sure the economy remains on track”

“It’s going to be challenging, because the picture around the world is challenging”

That’s a new message from the prime minister who until now has been talking about restoring “hope” to Britain

News slowly catching up...

Yes it does thanks. I think I was confused with the next sentence talking about being above the protected threshold in one bank, but I think RTB was talking about cash there.

I suppose a pension could be OK if you can wait long enough and enough of the investments recover, but how long would that take? 10 years? 20?

I have definitely stocked up. 24 bottles of wine just ordered and probably a couple of gin too. You can never be too prepared!

If you had been expecting say £100,000 you probably won't get as much as that if the economy goes tits up. If you have planned your retirement based on certain figures and the economy crashes, you may find yourself with a LOT less than you had planned.

If we end up in bank collapsing land, you have a certain amount protected but you lose the rest. Given banks had to be bailed out in 2008 this isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

Yes these are possibilities that are being taken seriously as possible outcomes. This is how serious the situation could get. This isn't saying it will, it's saying it could. Massive caveat there but i don't think it can be dismissed out of hand.

23 pages in and still no sign of OP @bagpuss90 … couldn’t be that interested.

Spot on, ideally you need to be able to ride out a drop in the market. The unknown of course is how long that takes.

The advice is always to make sure you've got a financial buffer that isn't in stocks and shares (pensions or ISAs). So premium bonds, savings account (but watch to make sure you stay under the taxable interest threshold). That way if the markets are down you don't have to crystalise a loss by drawing money out of an ISA when the value of is lower.

If you have money to invest a low market is exactly the time to put it in stocks and shares but again leave yourself a buffer.

Emmanuel Macron AT EmmanuelMacron
(translated from French)
When oil is under pressure, pump prices climb. I know what that means for the French.

What happens thousands of miles from our shores always ends up weighing on our daily lives.

So I'm taking action to reduce tensions, secure our supplies, and ease the pressure on prices.

After my talks with the Iraqi Prime Minister earlier this week, I met today with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the Emir of Qatar.

The priority: restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for oil transit, protecting the energy infrastructure of our partners, and securing production. It's essential to guarantee our supplies.

We're working on this with our coalition partners for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

We're also working to open alternative routes to reduce our dependence on this strategic passage and secure our supplies.

More routes for oil means less dependence. Less dependence means more security. And more security means less pressure on prices.

Pushing back against tensions. Securing oil. Easing the pressure on pump prices. That's part of protecting the French.

Hmm.

Starting to get serious isn't it?

yes! and that I am on a ‘priority list’ - this was news to me

today I bought a flat camping gas ring and cylinders for power,
gas lighters, long matches, Andrex and ordered water from Tesco

My delivery driver said prices of food are going to be sky high
and stock up my freezer, no idea what he knows that we should
I have a small chest freezer but should the electricity be shut off
it will spoil of course
like many others, I don’t know what to do for the best

This is the most bizarre story (I've ignored it all day until it's hit some sources that seem to have more credibility)

Indian PM Modi paused to ask President Xi of China at the BRICS conference earlier this week "is it ok?" And there comments that it was in reference to his health.

Then we've had this:

Bill Gertz (Washington Post)
Rumors are flying in China over Xi Jinping begin taken ill during his visit to India. They include claims that he suffered a minor illness to experiencing a stroke worsened by by failure to treat early. Some wild claims say rival group armies are mobilizing for civil war. No confirmation but Treasury Sec Bessent is meeting with Chinese counterparts today and we’ll see if the summit for Sept. 24 is still on

Dave Troy (Washington Spectator)
It's now being reported that in addition to Xi, Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa also became ill after attending the BRICS summit in India.

TRT Afrika AT trtafrika
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has been booked off from public engagements due to ill health, his office said, with the foreign affairs minister expected to lead the country's delegation to this year's UN General Assembly
https://x.com/trtafrika/status/2100273517375758405

Mail & Guardian
President Cyril Ramaphosa and his deputy, Paul Mashatile, have both been declared medically unfit to carry out their official duties due to ill health.
https://x.com/mailandguardian/status/2100261215003893778

(I should add that I saw a tweet a couple of days ago saying the media were complaining about getting a strictly veggie lunch during the BRICS summit, until one journalist found a cockroach in it.)

The timing is not 'ideal' for stability.

I wonder if Putin is shitting himself. (Literally maybe?!)

It's such an odd story. Could be bull(shit).

@Madamefroufrouyes, we are on the priority list.
If I were you, and you have someone vulnerable in your household, I would make sure of an alternative way to cook ( which you have done), a way of lighting ( I've opted for lanterns and headtorches and a good amount of batteries) and, if you can, an alternative source of heating - if not, warm clothes, blankets, and hot water bottles, and even survival blankets.
I have focused on shelf stable foods ( tins/ pasta/ rice etc rather than freezer goods.
And it's worth considering a power bank for your phone - you can get solar ones too.

and the Today programme

thank you for your concern!
no we don’t have anyone vulnerable in our household
which was why I was surprised to find we are on a Priority list

I think you misunderstood my last comment

We will not know what to expect, that is impossible - we can be
prepared for our own perceived eventualities and be completely wrong.

I have not seen a police officer in this smalltown for 5 years, the closest
Police Station is Oxford, 40 minutes away, help would not be immediate.

plus! we have power banks which will be of little value in a total power outtage

my comment of 10th at 11.27 describes our situation

This was hidden away on a live feed from Al Jazeera

US relaxes truck driver hours to lower fuel costs and ease shortages
US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has said that the Trump administration is temporarily relaxing hours of service rules for truck drivers handling petrol and diesel shipments to lower fuel costs.

“Short-term supply chain disruptions can delay gasoline and diesel shipments, which in turn can impact freight delivery shipments,” Duffy said in a statement.

By allowing truckers to drive additional hours “if they are not fatigued”, the Department of Transportation is protecting against fuel shortages and increased prices, Duffy added.

Global oil supply chains are experiencing considerable disruptions due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, the ongoing conflict in Yemen and Saudi Arabia’s closure of the East-West pipeline.

I searched it up on twitter to verify it, but found very little - but enough to verify. A tweet with a link to the official government website bulletin.

I then search in a browser:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-temporarily-eases-curb-working-hours-fuel-truck-drivers-2026-09-17/

This is a quote from the reuters article:
The department's Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration said it took the action "in anticipation of the need for greater hours-of-service flexibility."
It aimed to "respond to global supply disruptions, anticipated increases in the demand for gasoline and diesel fuels in the late summer and fall," the department added.
The move also sought to mitigate impacts on the costs and availability of fuel for transport providers, agricultural harvesting, and the public as demand grows, it said.
Global diesel supplies are expected to remain tight due to a lack of spare refining capacity, Russia's ban on exports and the approach of peak winter demand.
Motor carriers with conditional safety ratings are excluded from the waiver, however, and a driver needing immediate rest is allowed 10 consecutive hours off-duty before resuming work, the agency said.
Such orders have routinely been issued previously to tackle natural disasters or emergencies such as wildfires, hurricanes or winter storms.
In March 2020, a national emergency order waived service requirements for commercial vehicle drivers transporting emergency coronavirus relief, food for emergency restocks, and supplies and equipment, ranging from masks to disinfectant.

This is us government crisis and contingency planning being actioned.

Us government press release
https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/trumps-transportation-secretary-sean-p-duffy-takes-action-lower-fuel-costs

It's September. This isn't normal. And the circumstances are due to government policy not a natural disaster.

Tweets are circulating about gas stations in the US being out of diesel but a little more investigation of this suggests this is still currently within the normal operating range.

I'm also seeing information about how the gulf states are getting better at getting around the blockades using escorted shuttles and STS transfers and volumes are good - not enough but good - but the risk is the workarounds become targets for Iran.

Biuro Prasowe Orlen (translated from Polish)
We inform you that oil deliveries to Poland and the remaining refineries of the ORLEN Group are being carried out on an ongoing basis and fully cover their demand. In connection with the situation on the raw materials market, the ORLEN Group has contracted 16 additional deliveries to the Polish, Czech, and Lithuanian directions since Friday, including from Norway, the United Kingdom, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and both Americas.
The remaining part of the demand is covered, among others, on the basis of the contract signed in August with the Norwegian company Equinor.
The ORLEN Group monitors the situation on the raw materials market and continuously utilizes its diversified supplier portfolio.

To explain this - one of the customers who got their order from the Saudis cancelled is this company. They effectively had to panic but to cover the gap, but it looks like they managed to do so.

United Airlines yesterday warned of a reduced timetable with flights cancelled in December though.

So a mixed bag of bits of information going on here. But definitely significant things that are out of the ordinary.

Al Jareeza
BREAKING: Pakistan's defence minister says time has come to implement Mecca pact following Houthi attacks

(Note: If Pakistan helps Saudi may prioritise oil to Pakistan rather than Europe who has so far refused)

The Telegraph
Airports in Poland have suspended flights amid Russian strikes near the border with western Ukraine.

Various Sources
Macron is bringing all party leaders together for a briefing about "the rapid deterioration of the international situation"

One comment on the above about France with further details:
Something unusual is happening in Paris.
Macron has summoned France’s political leaders and presidential candidates to the Élysée tomorrow amid what his office calls a “rapid deterioration of the international situation.”
What makes this particularly noteworthy is who will brief them:
France’s domestic, foreign and military intelligence services, national security officials — and the country’s energy leadership.
The agenda covers the Middle East, Ukraine, energy security and the consequences for France.
French reporting says the meeting follows a DGSE intelligence briefing earlier this week. One diplomatic source described the situation simply:
“We are entering a different world.”
This does not mean Paris expects an imminent war or that every recent incident in Europe is connected.
But governments rarely bring political rivals and intelligence chiefs into the same room unless they believe the strategic environment has changed enough that everyone needs to understand the same picture.
Worth watching very closely.

I'm seeing tweets suggesting there are protests at oil depots about rising prices of fuel demanding something is done so it may be connected to this. Reality is, who ever is in charge, probably can't bring prices down.

Polish PM Donald Tusk:
I fear that by winter we will witness increasingly severe attacks by Russia on energy infrastructure.
And I can only express hope that these provocations and attacks will not go beyond Ukraine’s borders.
But hope, unfortunately, is not certainty.
We are preparing here in Poland for different scenarios.

In further comments he said that "Russia was planning something"

Note: Poland said that Russia was going to bomb close to the border and they did, narrowly missing various EU and Ukrainian politicians plus a Mr Johnson. It has since become apparent they were probably the target.

I had also seen prior to that suggestions that Russia intended to make political assassinations in Europe BEFORE this attack. (Very secretive all this on twitter isn't it?!)

Finnish President Alexander Stubb is urging Finns to mentally prepare for possible sabotage attacks and drones straying into Finland.

Four drones have already fallen on Finnish territory earlier this year.

Speaking to MTV, Stubb said it is worth being mentally prepared for something to happen, while stressing that people should remain calm and avoid overreacting to individual incidents.

He described Russia’s actions against Europe as hybrid warfare and said Finland’s authorities and Defence Forces have significantly improved their ability to respond to drones and other threats.

We can handle these situations, Stubb said.

German Chancellor Merz, looks likely to be forced to resign.

The EX-head of MI6 warned against net-zero being a national security threat as a policy that's ill thought out yesterday and the day before in various speeches.

The PM has come out today to double double on net-zero.

This news cycle is the gift that keeps giving. Escalation?

Regardless: political instability is not good for long supply chains or the situation over fertiliser, food and oil that we ALREADY have.

Air raid sirens sounded in a couple of places in Eastern Poland today due to alert mentioned above.

BBC: complete tumbleweeds

I'm actually staggered.

Maybe he thinks you're working for 'them' ....

Rumblings elsewhere on Mumsnet.
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5579540-anyone-else-concerned-about-the-price-of-fuel

Oh thank fuck for that...😮‍💨

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking now, but before the war in Ukraine we were led to believe that they will just blast us off the face of the earth.

But I guess the good old 'boots on the ground' is still the way to go. If they had the technology, they would've used it by now.

There is new technology though. Russia has a new weapon to cut off the undersea cables without leaving any trace. Weapons don’t have to be bombs.

Get a life straw and you will have 200 l of drinking water.