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AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling?

767 replies

bagpuss90 · 10/09/2026 08:52

I get that we have been advised to stock up on essentials, though I think it will encourage panic buying. I will probably get a few days worth of stuff at some point . My friend however has, at least in my opinion gone ott about it. She’s stocking up a six month supply of food. She’s bought head torches, a camping gas stove and various other stuff. She thinks I’m being naive …Am I missing something here ?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
52
RedToothBrush · 17/09/2026 22:19

VeronicaRaven · 17/09/2026 19:24

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking now, but before the war in Ukraine we were led to believe that they will just blast us off the face of the earth.

But I guess the good old 'boots on the ground' is still the way to go. If they had the technology, they would've used it by now.

Edited

I don't even think this.

It's hybrid warfare. That's guerilla type tactics and strategic targeting to produce splits within the public of a country (think opposition for the Vietnam war within America being a key factor in the US withdrawal).

Donald Tusk has done a long speech about what he expects.

This is lifted from the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/sep/17/donald-trump-eu-european-union-mark-carney-canada-associate-membership-tariffs-threats-germany-merz-latest-news-updates

Intelligence shows Russian 'plans for hybrid strikes ... against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland,' Tusk says
Tusk says that intelligence assessments show “plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland”.

He says the latest intelligence on this is “very consistent and convincing”.

He says that Russia is expected to pretend that any incidents are “accidental” in a bid to “paralyse or at least weaken Nato’s resolve to invoke the relevant provisions” of the Nato treaty.

“There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles could be launched into the territory of one or more Nato countries on the eastern flank, and could even cause damage, and the official narrative will be that this is an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to consider any response from Nato.

The aim … will be to weaken Nato’s integrity in general and, above all, to convince … member states that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical – that is, the assumption that no one will want to die for Latvia or Lithuania, given that we are dealing with incidents rather than a declaration of war.”

He says he expects Russia to use “recurrent” incidents to use them as “an increasingly stark illustration of Nato’s helplessness” to respond in a united manner.

And

Tusk's stark warning about Russian plans for hybrid strikes against Ukraine's allies - summary
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has said that intelligence assessments show Russian “plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland” in the coming months (17:23).

In a sombre speech in the Polish parliament, Tusk warned that Poland will face ‘provocations ... far more dangerous that those we have faced so far’ (17:33) as Russia is expected to test Nato’s resolve in defending the territory of its members on the eastern flank.

The Polish prime minister cautioned that the coming autumn and winter is likely to be “the most critical moment” in Russia’s full-scale aggression on Ukraine (17:20).

Tusk said the available intelligence suggested Russia will pretend any incidents are “accidental” to further stress test Nato’s article 5.

Tusk also warned that some European parties “currently gaining in strength” are only “looking for an excuse” to not defend Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania, calling for a united response to any threat in the region (17:28).

AND

Tusk did not specifically reveal which intelligence agencies he was citing.

However, Poland’s security services minister Tomasz Siemoniak met CIA director John Ratcliffe last week, just days after his much-discussed trip to Russia.

Poland’s defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz is also planning to go to the US next week for urgent talks with US defence secretary Pete Hegseth.

Make of that what you will.

Tusk and other key ministers also repeatedly quoted Polish intelligence agencies in the past, whether in response to repeated security incidents, airspace provocations near Poland, or arrests of people suspected of planning acts of sabotage on behalf of Russian intelligence services.

AND

Some politicians 'just looking for excuses' to not defend Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Tusk warns
Tusk also talks about Poland’s absolute resolve to defence all other Nato countries.

He says “this is very important, because as. a border country … we are likely to need allied loyalty under Article 5 more than Portugal or Ireland.”

He continues:

“It is not the case that all politicians in the west, in the United States or in Europe, are thinking about how to defend Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and that they are all eager to prove immediately that they are staunch allies and will come to our aid under Article 5.

Far from all of them. There are many politicians, as well as political forces, which are currently gaining in strength and influence in European countries, who are just looking for an excuse: we won’t die for Poland; we won’t die for Latvia or Lithuania.”

He says that’s why Poland must be very openly ready to follow through on its allied commitments.

“Article 5, loyalty within the alliance, and faithfulness to our commitments must become our hallmark,” he says.

AND

In a strong speech, he continued:
“I am from Gdańsk. In May 1939, a certain French politician – a future Nazi collaborator – asked in the French press why anyone should die for Gdańsk. A few months later, the whole of Europe was dying.
To those who say today that this is not our war, I would like to remind them of this lesson from history. In 1939, our alliances existed only on paper, really. We were left on our own. Today, we are members of Nato and the European Union.”
We spend almost 5% of our GDP on defence. This is almost twice as much as Germany and twice as much as France. We are building one of the strongest armies in Europe; we secured €44bn from the EU’s SAFE programme, the most from all EU countries. And Polish borders are today the best marked borders on the entire continent.
Europe, which in 1939 did not want to die for Gdańsk, today funds Polish armaments.
But we are aware that even the largest army is not enough if the nation is not ready.
Therefore, I address all those who look at the future with anxiety:
We are not seeking war, but if anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response from us and our allies. Long live a free and secure Republic of Poland.”

Just to add Germany has closed its Consulate in St Petersburg today (the Embassy in Moscow is still open). And has already accused Russia of attempted sabotage attacks that were unsuccessful as well as there being a mysterious sabotage of the Dutch Railway system yesterday (no one implied on that but would be consistent with what's happened and what's been said.

Obviously France is having it's big internal meeting tomorrow which I'm guessing will include some of this.

Meanwhile BBC and UK Government: Total Crickets.

(And this is why I have posted in full due to this being buried on the Guardian and hidden away on twitter).

Poland warns Russia planning ‘hybrid strikes’ against countries supporting Ukraine – as it happened

Donald Tusk says ‘very consistent and convincing’ intelligence assessment point towards Russian plans for strikes

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/sep/17/donald-trump-eu-european-union-mark-carney-canada-associate-membership-tariffs-threats-germany-merz-latest-news-updates

RedToothBrush · 17/09/2026 22:30

Tim Shipman AT ShippersUnbound
(Old Brexit thread regulars may recognise this guy - write a bunch of books telling the inside story. Chummy with Johnson if memory serves. Currently political editor at The Spectator)

Multiple reports from Europe that Russia has launched a provocation/low Level military campaign against the West (assassinations, violating air space, sabotage). The French govt is bringing opposition parties in for intelligence briefings. Time for the govt here to say something?

I would take this as political commentary politely saying "Where the fuck is Burnham? Why the crickets?" Just like I am. This is only going to get noisier in asking what the fuck is going on.

This is all highly unusual.

Swissmeringue · 17/09/2026 22:48

We live rurally and have oil based central heating. I had the tank (1000 litres) filled today and it cost over a grand which was fun. When I called the guy was like "oooh it's expensive at the minute £1.11 a litre, you sure you want the full thousand?" To which I was like "you seriously think the price is going back down any time before the spring?!?"

RedToothBrush · 17/09/2026 23:03

The Institute for the Study Of War released a report today named identifying the threat.

If you want to read the report it's here
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2100233334244704500

Key paras

ISW has long assessed that the Kremlin considers itself to be in an overt conflict with Europe and the United States.
[RTB: they believe we are at War already - not we will join an existing war]
ISW has long assessed that the Kremlin considers itself to be in an overt conflict with Europe and the United States. The Kremlin has conducted a campaign of irregular actions, military posturing, and nuclear saber rattling against Europe for years, and individual Russian actions are not inherently new.

The Kremlin has increased the intensity of its kinetic actions and statements since Summer 2025, however, such as with the September 9-10, 2025 Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace — and the Kremlin has become even more brazen in Summer 2026.The Kremlin is conducting a series of coordinated kinetic campaigns against NATO member states, and European states must both understand internally and publicly name these campaigns externally for what they are: coordinated kinetic and non-kinetic attacks against NATO military and civilian targets, not isolated incidents or “provocations.”European states must both understand internally and publicly name these campaigns externally for what they are: coordinated kinetic and non-kinetic attacks against NATO military and civilian targets, not isolated incidents or “provocations.”

The German government’s official announcement on September 1 that Russia was directly responsible for the August 5 drone attack targeting Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport marked a turning point in the willingness of European officials to publicly discuss ongoing Russian kinetic actions. German authorities discovered a drone containing explosives near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane overnight on August 4 to 5 and reported that a second drone collided with another cargo plane that was aborting its landing due to the first drone incident. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated on September 1 that Germany and its partners clearly identified Russian involvement in the attack, and noted that the perpetrators used tactics consistent with known Russian modi operandi and technical capabilities. Numerous NATO, EU, and European government officials expressed their agreement with the German assessment, expressed full support for Germany, and denounced future Russian actions against Germany and other European targets. Even so, neither Germany nor any other European state or body has taken meaningful action against Russia in response.

The Kremlin and Russian-linked actors have escalated the pace and intensity of their kinetic actions against Europe over the past year. Russian-linked actors regularly attack critical infrastructure across Europe, such as persistent attempts to sabotage Polish railways. The Kremlin is conducting a campaign of arson attacks against European defense industrial base targets producing material for both European militaries and Ukraine.European intelligence agencies and media outlets regularly report that Russian-linked agents seek to assassinate executives in major European defense companies. Russian and Russian-linked actors routinely conduct cyberattacks against European government and civilian targets.Russian military aircraft routinely probe the borders of NATO airspace to test NATO defenses on a near-daily basis. The Russian navy and intelligence services threaten NATO sea lines of communication and critical infrastructure such as undersea cables. The Russian “shadow fleet” of falsely flagged vessels supports Russian sanctions evasion and likely supports other Russian kinetic actions against Europe such as drone launches. The Kremlin has at minimum accepted the risk of drones and missiles used in strikes against Ukraine entering NATO airspace and injuring civilians, as when a Russian drone struck a Romanian apartment building on May 29 and injured two people. ISW now assesses that some Russian airspace violations in conjunction with strikes in Ukraine are intentional, however, and both intentional and unintentional violations enable the Russian military to test NATO air defenses and erode the meaning of NATO’s Article 5 collective defense provision. The Russians additionally very likely sought to injure or kill current and former European officials in the September 13 drone strike that apparently was meant to hit the train carrying those officials out of Ukraine following a conference in Kyiv.
The Kremlin is conducting these actions against Europe as part of a series of mutually supporting kinetic and cognitive campaigns against Europe, rather than as a scattered collection of individual actions. The objectives of Russia’s campaigns include but are not limited to: physically disrupt NATO support for Ukraine, intimidate European states into halting support to Ukraine through the threat of strikes and the concern that they must reserve military equipment for their own protection, gather intelligence on NATO defenses and responses to Russian actions, raise NATO’s threshold of what kinetic Russian actions are considered normal or routine in an effort to “boil the frog” and normalize Russian attacks, exacerbate political divides in Europe, demonstrate to Russian domestic audiences that Russia can attack NATO, and set conditions for potential future Russian conventional operations against NATO. ISW will present a campaign framework for the Russian campaigns against Europe and will assess major Russian lines of effort in forthcoming papers.

European officials’ increased willingness to publicly discuss Russia’s kinetic campaigns is positive, but the language NATO and individual European states use to discuss the ongoing Russian campaigns will inherently shape Western policy responses, and much of it still obfuscates the coordinated and coherent nature of the Russian efforts.

European officials too often refer to Russian actions, from violations of NATO airspace up to and including blatantly kinetic attacks on European infrastructure, as “provocations.”[18] Calling Russian violations of NATO airspace and direct attacks on European targets “provocations” constrains NATO’s freedom to act by implicitly framing NATO responses to these Russian actions as NATO being “provoked,” a negative term that European states will inherently wish to avoid. Labeling individual Russian actions and entire categories of Russian actions as “sub-threshold” or “sub-Article 5” actions likewise preemptively constrains NATO responses by de facto labeling Russian actions as unworthy of NATO responses by NATO responses by de facto labeling Russian actions as unworthy of NATO collective defense. The Kremlin will rightly read this language as what it is: NATO states attempting to downplay actual Russian attacks for fear that any effort to invoke the Article 5 (or sometimes even Article 4) provisions that the Russian attacks actually merit would fail. NATO and European states must work to avoid using this language and call Russian kinetic attacks what they are, whether the target states choose to invoke Article 4 or Article 5 or not.

European officials most commonly refer to Russian actions as “hybrid attacks” or “hybrid war.” German Interior Minister Dobrindt stated on September 1 that German intelligence perceives the August 5 Russian attack on the Leipzig/Halle airport as having occurred “in conjunction with other hybrid actions” and noted that Germany will be the target of future “hybrid” attacks.[19] Most European statements of support for Germany after September 1 similarly discussed the Russian “hybrid attack” and pledged responses to future “hybrid action,” and the “hybrid” language remains dominant in public discourse around Russian campaigns.[20] The problem with identifying Russian kinetic attacks on NATO states as “hybrid” is that it implies that they are not part of a coherent military campaign, but rather part of something else. Using that term is, again, meant to justify not invoking NATO’s collective defense provisions or taking meaningful action in response, and the Kremlin will read it as Europe’s willingness to accept continued and possibly escalated Russian actions along these lines.

An increasing number of European officials, particularly in frontline states, have correctly directly named Russian actions as “kinetic” or as “attacks” without any qualifier. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated on August 17 that Russian actions against Europe have “turned kinetic,” citing Russian assassination attempts and efforts to sabotage Polish railways.[21] Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys echoed this wording on September 2, stating that Russian attacks against Europe are “no longer hybrid; they are very kinetic.”[22] European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen characterized the Leipzig/Halle Airport attack as “an attack using military-grade material carried out by Russian operatives on European Union soil,” on September 1, characterizing it directly as an attack without the “hybrid” qualifier.[23] This language is much more accurate, even if it downplays the significance of previous Russian kinetic attacks on Europe.

The Baltic states have increasingly shifted since September 1 towards calling Russian attacks “state-sponsored terrorism,” though this language has not yet reached wide acceptance. Kaupo Rosin, Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, directly stated on August 28 that Europe must “abandon euphemisms like ‘hybrid warfare’ and call escalating [Russian] sabotage campaigns and subversion across Europe by its proper name of ‘state-sponsored terrorism.’”[24] EU High Representative Kaja Kallas similarly stated on September 2 that the Leipzig/Halle Airport attack had “all the characteristics of state sponsored terrorism.”[25] Terrorism is a form of war, and an act of terrorism on September 11, 2001 prompted the first and only invocation of NATO’s Article 5 provision to date, so this language is a move in the right direction. It still obfuscates the connection between current Russian kinetic campaigns against Europe and the actual near-term Russian conventional threat, however.

Defining the current Russian challenge will be a difficult and pressing challenge for NATO and Europe, and European states must at minimum understand the assumptions and inherent framing of justifiable responses to Russian actions that the terms they are already using introduce into ongoing policy debates. ISW will assess the policy ramifications of using different labels for Russian actions in a forthcoming paper and is not yet proposing a set of language to use to describe the Russian campaigns, other than a direct statement of what they are: coordinated, state-directed, kinetic attacks on European targets.

NATO must additionally prepare for the possibility of near-term conventional Russian attacks that would not be militarily existential to NATO but could be politically existential by dividing NATO. The Russian military could conduct air, missile, or drone strikes or a limited ground incursion against one or more Baltic states to test and seek to break NATO’s resolve to invoke Article 5 and respond effectively on its basis. A limited Russian attack would aim to create a situation in which NATO is unable to agree how, or if at all, to respond to a Russian attack. Any near-term Russian conventional attack would be tailored to maximize the possibility that NATO states would fail to unify and provide military assistance as an alliance to an attacked member state. A scenario in which NATO does not unanimously vote to honor an invocation of the Article 5 mutual defense clause, or in which a state under Russian attack declines to invoke Article 5 at all out of concern that it would not receive unified support, would significantly damage NATO’s credibility and unity — an outcome that would achieve a longstanding Russian objective and immensely expand Putin’s space to maneuver and plan future attacks against a divided alliance.

It goes on further but you can read that yourself

Main summary: Nato should prepare for war (from as early as 2027) because Russia thinks it's already at war with NATO

Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) on X

2/ Read the full report: https://t.co/0wGQBtCcDw

https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2100233334244704500

RedToothBrush · 17/09/2026 23:17

A number of other European countries have also made comments today.

Meanwhile:
The Trump administration is considering withdrawing 25,000 troops from Europe, which is nearly one-third of all U.S. forces—NBC News reports.

mopandsmiff · 17/09/2026 23:23

Well that’s scary ^ 😶

TemporarilyCantDoMyself · 18/09/2026 06:43

Just struck me this has been a very useful thread.
It's had prepping. Climate and looming winter challenges. Politics and war. Putin, Trump, Middle East etc. Much about how the media covers or fails to cover the current situation. Lots of good joined up thinking here.
But it's in Aibu, so once it comes to an end it'll drop off the radar. OP disappeared back on day 1, which was the 10th. I'm wondering if we could get it moved to another board, maybe preppers? So it'll be easier to look back and find it.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 06:58

BBC this morning.

Short on details of what's actually happening but asking if we are psychologically prepared for a war that may be coming!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmn0jke547r5o

A two-part image showing the backs of two people. One image shows a man wearing a backpack and headphones, while the other shows an officer cadet wearing a military cap.

War may be coming. Are we psychologically ready?

The military and government say the risk of conflict is growing, but we may not be mentally ready for it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmn0jke547r5o

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:01

TemporarilyCantDoMyself · 18/09/2026 06:43

Just struck me this has been a very useful thread.
It's had prepping. Climate and looming winter challenges. Politics and war. Putin, Trump, Middle East etc. Much about how the media covers or fails to cover the current situation. Lots of good joined up thinking here.
But it's in Aibu, so once it comes to an end it'll drop off the radar. OP disappeared back on day 1, which was the 10th. I'm wondering if we could get it moved to another board, maybe preppers? So it'll be easier to look back and find it.

No. It will disappear. AIBU has traffic. Even if it pops up and down in AIBU more people will see it. Even I'm hyperventilating.

Look on your 'threads I'm on' if you want to keep following. Or bookmark it.

I have a feeling it will start to get traction. Eventually.

TemporarilyCantDoMyself · 18/09/2026 07:07

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:01

No. It will disappear. AIBU has traffic. Even if it pops up and down in AIBU more people will see it. Even I'm hyperventilating.

Look on your 'threads I'm on' if you want to keep following. Or bookmark it.

I have a feeling it will start to get traction. Eventually.

Ah see your point. I do get it through threads I'm on. I'm more thinking about when it gets to 1000, it's nearly 600 now. Once it's at 1000 I feel an urge to tuck it away somewhere safer than AIBU! 😂 IYSWIM.
Feels like a new kind of thread. Pulling together lots of strands of current concern.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:10

https://apnews.com/article/poland-russia-ukraine-nato-baltics-drones-rockets-818fe48227ee28d60fe86d8fe6485f5c
Associated Press News Agency. Sources don't get better than this.

“They are convinced the winter will be tragically critical for Ukraine,” Tusk said. He said last winter Poland stepped in with deliveries when Ukraine’s energy infrastructure came under attack, but if border crossings are destroyed, it will be much harder for Warsaw to offer such help this upcoming winter.

“Russia’s goal is to destroy as much as possible the economy and logistics of Ukraine,” Tusk said, adding that intelligence indicates continuous attacks of “very high frequency and intensity” on six main Ukrainian cities should be expected in the near future.

Tusk announced on Thursday he would travel to Ukraine overnight to Friday, in what can be seen as an act of defiance against Russia after European leaders narrowly escaped a drone strike on a train near the Polish-Ukrainian border on Sunday. Officials usually keep their travel plans to Ukraine secret for security reasons.

In Kyiv, he said he would discuss with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy how to defend against the new types of drones as well as discuss with partners including Slovakia about further sanctions against Russia.

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that “major progress is being made toward establishing a U.S. Army base in Poland” after a U.S. delegation was in Poland last week to visit several possible locations.

“If this happens, the location will be announced very soon,” Trump wrote. “This will be a historic step for our Great U.S./Polish Alliance.”

Poland has for years sought to host a permanent U.S. base as a strong guarantee of its security in the face of the rising Russian threat.

Also see attached photo.

This is JPMorgan talking about managing financial risk in relation to oil. They basically say, all bets are off, we have not got a clue where this is headed because we no longer have a baseline not any idea how far this will be pushed.

AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling?
RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:11

TemporarilyCantDoMyself · 18/09/2026 07:07

Ah see your point. I do get it through threads I'm on. I'm more thinking about when it gets to 1000, it's nearly 600 now. Once it's at 1000 I feel an urge to tuck it away somewhere safer than AIBU! 😂 IYSWIM.
Feels like a new kind of thread. Pulling together lots of strands of current concern.

I have a feeling it may become a new thread series. We will cross that bridge...

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:15

The Times

https://link.thetimes.com/view/686fcf7573982abee5088022sarfb.l9w/7cc6997c
War and Peace
Tom Newton Dunn

All the big journalists on my twitter feed seem to slowly crawling out from rocks and are noticing.

It's both reassuring that my Spideysenses aren't off but also terrifying.

https://link.thetimes.com/view/686fcf7573982abee5088022sarfb.l9w/7cc6997c

TemporarilyCantDoMyself · 18/09/2026 07:19

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:11

I have a feeling it may become a new thread series. We will cross that bridge...

Well that's exactly what I was thinking, new thread series.
Bridge-crossing; I'm a notorious thinker-ahead. But yes anything could happen 'twixt here and thread's end. Shame OP lost interest but thanks to her we have this whole shiny new subject coming together here.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:27

From the above:
Something could just as easily have gone wrong when a Russian frigate fired flares at a Danish helicopter on Monday. Or when a Russian drone entered Lithuanian air space on Tuesday evening and was shot down by an Italian jet.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:29

TemporarilyCantDoMyself · 18/09/2026 07:19

Well that's exactly what I was thinking, new thread series.
Bridge-crossing; I'm a notorious thinker-ahead. But yes anything could happen 'twixt here and thread's end. Shame OP lost interest but thanks to her we have this whole shiny new subject coming together here.

Sometimes that happens. If they've started a worthwhile thread, then just go with it. Some of the most important threads MN has are sometimes bigger than individual posters and their strength lies in that.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:41

Airports in Lublin and Rzeszów have suspended flight operations again. Airspace closed for military.

mopandsmiff · 18/09/2026 07:50

I wonder if the sudden return to the UK of a certain member of the Royal Family with strong military connections is at least partially related to this? I’m sure he wouldn’t want to be living overseas and risk being unable to safely return to his homeland in the event of war.
Just speculation, the thought crossed my mind.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:54

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-17/aramco-hunts-for-fuel-supply-in-the-mediterranean-after-attacks

This article is paywalled. It doesn't matter.

You can read the headline. You do not need to read more.

To explain. Aramco is the State Owned Oil company of Saudi Arabia.

Yes the same Saudi Arabia who are saying their pipeline will be repaired partly in 3 days or something.

Except, they are now shipping as much oil as they can buy road to Oman or via other routes. This requires diesel. Diesel they don't have... Because their refineries are now offline or at least aren't making enough to cover their increased demand.

Saudi Arabia is BUYING diesel.

It's all about diesel.

AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling?
RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 07:55

mopandsmiff · 18/09/2026 07:50

I wonder if the sudden return to the UK of a certain member of the Royal Family with strong military connections is at least partially related to this? I’m sure he wouldn’t want to be living overseas and risk being unable to safely return to his homeland in the event of war.
Just speculation, the thought crossed my mind.

Not just yours.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 09:28

There's another similar thread running. Both worth reading. I think I'm going to continue with this one for now (if it fills, I'll move onto the other until that's full and onwards from there).

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5573921-aibu-to-think-the-stockpile-advice-suggests-something-to-come?page=16&reply=154824679

I think events are starting to come together and escalate. It's starting to get taken seriously by heavyweight journalists. This isn't going away.

Let's see if Burnham says anything today. Tumbleweeds today would not be a good indication.

Page 16 | AIBU to think the stockpile advice suggests something to come?? | Mumsnet

The government is low-key telling people to stock up with tinned food, bottled water etc I have tinned food, gas camping stoves etc just need to thin...

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5573921-aibu-to-think-the-stockpile-advice-suggests-something-to-come?page=16&reply=154824679

Seasidewalker · 18/09/2026 09:44

If anyone is looking at adding to their larder, Aldi beans, tinned tomatoes, butter (it freezes nicely) sardines etc. are currently still at what I imagine are their "loss leader" pricing and Tesco seemed to be matching most of those (we don't have other supermarkets).

There was an interesting programme on last night about the challenges the weather has been bringing to farming. It was a clear warning about costs increasing and many farmers not surviving in farming. It suggested we currently import 40% of our food. It was pretty a sobering in terms of inevitable food inflation BUT it didn't even touch on the geopolitical issues, the oil crisis and the impact that this will surely have in terms of distribution costs. (I'm not sure what the programme was DH had paused it early evening while I was dog waking).

It appeared to me that veg prices were heading up - I don't have comparison prices though to be sure.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 10:17

Swissmeringue · 17/09/2026 22:48

We live rurally and have oil based central heating. I had the tank (1000 litres) filled today and it cost over a grand which was fun. When I called the guy was like "oooh it's expensive at the minute £1.11 a litre, you sure you want the full thousand?" To which I was like "you seriously think the price is going back down any time before the spring?!?"

Can I just say how sensible this is. There will be people really caught out I fear.

This is a series of tweets relating to what's happening in the US but you will get the point and it's relevance.

Casey B Head AT CaseyBHead
It is going to be a hard winter. Heating oil is $5.699 right now. I normally do a pre buy of 500 gallons in August to lock in the price before winter demand hits. First they told me to check back in September, and then called me just now to say no pre buys because of the market.

Peter B AT realpeteyb123
I have a lot of friends in the heating oil business, and they’re telling me it’s absolute chaos right now.
I was also talking to a friend who owns a trucking company with a large fleet of diesel trucks. He told me their fuel costs are changing so quickly that it’s becoming incredibly difficult to price jobs and plan ahead.
You gotta know the streets, listen to the man, find out what’s happening.
Pain is coming

(When challenged about his use of language, Peter B replied: The streets and the man is an old Wall Street metaphore for seeing and understanding sentiment and what’s coming… I used to be a stockbroker.)

The Flippin Floridan AT Brainlinker
Asked my trucker friend.
As an independent contractor he pays for fuel himself. Went from paying $1200 a week to $2000 a week for fuel. His margins slashed.
Said a medium sized trucking biz just closed down.
Says drivers will stop driving cause it doesn’t make $$. Fuel surcharge fees that are meant to be a buffer for them do not make up for the bump in diesel.
Pain.

Chivalrous Shark AT JNKerr13
My brother in law runs a concrete plant. They have to update their fuel delivery surcharges weekly now. The last time I remember everyone screaming about fuel was 2007-2008. I don’t think it will be that bad but you never know. If a going to put a clamp on things. Look at how many diesel pusher luxury RVs are in the market right now! Pain is definitely coming!

N2 Rotation AT BlisteredSkies
Agreed. I purchased several hundreds of thousands of dollars in Jet fuel each year for my principal.
Trump was dishonest about the Venezuelan oil filling the SPR.
1. It’s very heavy crude. To make it even remotely usable you have to dilute it, blend it, Coke it, and upgrade it to refine to a level remotely usable. This is a capital intensive process.
2. He had already met with the heads of Chevron and Exxon. They refused to put capex into a country that could nationalize again and take their investment.
3. We tried this in the 80s and it nearly ruined our supply to blend it with our light sweet crude.
Couple these issues with the fact that the Strait of Hormuz , presents problems, they just bombed pipelines in Saudi Arabia, causing supply shock, and of course, the ongoing Russian and Ukrainian war.
Diesel and jet fuel are skyrocketing right now. Most places I go are 8 to $10 per gallon of Jet A.

Lucy AT LucciaorLucy
Just had a conversation with a farmer who uses heating oil. He said as of today’s prices, his costs for heating will be 3-4K higher than last year here in Michigan. Let’s not get into the diesel costs for his farm.

SkIdMaRk AT SFCSkIdMaRk
I live in upstate NY. Tons of homes are oil furnace. It’s been bad for awhile. It’s true what ya said. It’s about to get worst. What sucks is that this is a state problem. Even propane is high. Really hoping Blakeman gets in as Governor.

Peter Jones AT PeteyJ93
I am in the construction field and know of 3 companies that already parked their trucks due to diesel prices. Oct 1st there is supposed to be a trucking strike

Now I don't often post threads from complete randoms as it's hard to gauge how accurate/ genuine people are on them. However this thread is one I do think is real and says a lot that is almost certainly going to be happening in the UK and EU too (France already has fishermen striking at oil refinery).

There are a number of posts which blame Ukraine too which is interesting. But I'm more interested in the practical real world impacts at this point.

ASpoonfullOfPuppies · 18/09/2026 10:40

TemporarilyCantDoMyself · 16/09/2026 16:30

Which one did you choose? It's one of the things I haven't got yet. I look at the loads of them on Amazon and just glaze over in indecision. Tins of beans are soooo much easier!

Hi this is the radio I ordered.ROCAM FM/AM Wind up Radio Solar, Emergency Survival Radio with 12000mAh Rechargeable Battery, Torch, Reading Light, Type C & USB Charging & SOS for Power Outages & Outdoor Camping: Amazon.co.uk: Electronics & Photo

I am no expert but I needed an A port for an old iphone which is still working to recharge.
It has 3 C ports which will be for my more modern samsung phone, my laptop and my kindle hopefully.

Had to learn about usb a and usb c ports in last few days as I admit I was ignorant.

My iphone is lighting port at one end and a at the other. It's an iphone 7.

Anyway this radio works on batteries so I bought a supply of them. It is also supposed to be solar and wind up too. It also has a charging port so that is useful.

I figured if so many people had bought it, it was good enough for me although I did spend a bit of time trying to understand the above too.

Good luck

P.S.Did I say 5000 of them had been bought in last month. Looking today it says 500 so either my eye sight is going or the number has changed as we are now a week later. That's just the yellow ones mind.

Amazon

Amazon

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0FBR82LMV?ref=ppx_yo2ov_dt_b_fed_asin_title&th=1&tag=mumsnet&ascsubtag=mnforum-am-i-being-unreasonable-5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling

ASpoonfullOfPuppies · 18/09/2026 10:53

RedToothBrush · 17/09/2026 15:52

Air raid sirens sounded in a couple of places in Eastern Poland today due to alert mentioned above.

BBC: complete tumbleweeds

I'm actually staggered.

Scary what is happening in Poland.

Yes re BBC I do feel we are deliberately being 'kept calm'. The mega rich are probably already in their bunkers (only half joking)