To ask why you think we should not have locked down at all

[Methtones]

Not looking for an arguement, just a rational standpoint because I'm seeing lots of posters saying lockdown was a mistake with no reasoning other than "but the economy!".

Spain, France, Italy and Ireland have all implemented some form of lockdown and many of them have implemented a stricter one.

Why should we not have done this? Were these other countries wrong? Should we all have just have been business as usual?

I can understand the measures taken---no one is expendable even if the death/infection rates aren't as bad as we think. We don't know much about the virus. It's far better to act quickly and firmly and over-prepare, than the alternative.

However, measures taken in good (if ill-informed) faith now, could be used for other things later. I feel it is obvious that data from a tracing app will be used and probably sold. But I doubt there will be any restrictions on freedoms that would impinge on the economy---for example they can't ban protests under the guise of 'no gatherings' unless they also close bars and clubs and other profitable gatherings.

Overall, yes, we do need to be vigilant about what happens next. But that doesn't mean we should not have locked down at all.

I also question the secrecy around SAGE. Science is usually based on peer review and critical analysis. The ex chief scientist on Radio 4 this morning is asking who the scientists on SAGE are. That should make us all question “the science”.

@Nameofchanges is your workplace the Bank of England?

If not, I’m really not sure I would take their prediction as to length of recovery after this crisis seriously. It makes no sense to me.

I used to work for the BOE (as a lawyer, not an economist, I must stress). But it seems to me that, with the previous crisis, there was a trickle-down effect of issues arising within the financial services sector (more specifically, the banks and the failure of some of them) to many other sectors of the economy. The government had to bail out the banks.

In this crisis, the government has had to bail out so many more players in the economy (employers, the self employed etc). The lockdown has caused the economy effectively to grind to a halt almost completely (apart from a few notable sectors including retail). How your workplace concluded that there will be a shorter recovery period than from the previous crisis I have simply no idea. But maybe I’m wrong - I hope an economist will be along in a second to help!

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-52000219

Yep, as I suspected.

I said on a thread really early on that this would end up being like a Y2K situation. Everyone would be very worried about it, lots and lots of work would go into making sure it wasn't as big a problem as feared and, subsequently, people would be saying 'well that was a big fuss about nothing'

The problem we have with assessing whether the measures were proportionate is that we have no control group. It is difficult to compare different countries and their responses because of all the variables around Health systems, population density and other cultural factors.

Basically, I think I am saying that there is no objective way of assessing the impact of measures, so I wouldn't want to say they have been an over or under reaction with the information we have.

In response to questions about privacy, Mr Gould emphasised that the app was voluntary to download, and promised that NHSX would publish both the source code and the data protection arrangements underlying the app.

Excellent news.

I certainly won't be downloading any app.