U.K. civil society is passively committing slow suicide. I’m impressed at the extent of meek compliance the vast majority of our citizens are showing. Covid19 has definitely killed many people. I’d be irked if I was to be classified as “a denier”. That said, estimates of the lethality of the virus and the strong age and comorbidities linkages do not warrant locking down the entire population. The majority of the vulnerable were not / are not walking about but living mostly very quiet lives at home or in care homes.
When I ask people what extent they think the number of deaths exceed the average, many believe its more than anything we’ve seen before. This is understandable as the media bays disaster all day with no context.
In fact, up to April 22 2020, all-causes mortality in England and Wales was 2,700 FEWER than in the same period in 2018. fullfact.org/health/ons-2020-covid-death-totals/
The typical death rate is of the order of 1,800 every day in normal times. This background information is never shared by the media. It adds up across the whole U.K. to just over 620,000 every year. And remember, until last week, a not-unusual number of people have died in U.K.
The lethality of Covid19 was initially assumed from Wuhan to be dreadful. I recall hearing 2-3%. Truly frightening. However, because a high proportion of those infected have no or only minor symptoms, the denominator was greatly underestimated. As more data emerges from around the world, better estimates of lethality are closer to 0.1 - 0.3%, in the range of a severe influenza season. If it is 0.1%, that means 1 in 1000. And most are over 70 and with multiple comorbidities. We had an unusually mild flu season last winter. Flu not uncommonly kills 20,000 per year in U.K. Most were spared in Dec-Feb, and the same vulnerable people instead succumbed Mar-May, plus a limited additional number. That is the extent of it.
If lethality is as low as 0.1%, 27,000 reported covid19 deaths implies 27million people have been infected. It’s estimated that around 1/3rd of the population have some degree of prior immunity from exposure to other corona viruses (which along with rhinoviruses cause most common colds). It’s far from unlikely that, by the time the daily deaths attributable to covid19 falls to under 100 per day, our population will effectively have attained herd immunity, in the sense that the remaining unexposed proportion will not support a second outbreak. Findings reported yesterday from SK confirmed that once a person has recovered from covid19 they’re immune and do not develop symptoms if exposed a second time. This was expected and predicted from studies in monkeys reported months ago.
So, this pandemic is self-limiting and albeit slowly is waning steadily. There is no rationale to remain in lockdown. There will be no “second spike”. It’s mathematically and biologically implausible. We don’t need a vaccine. We don’t need track and trace. We don’t need an App. We don’t need to “practise social distancing” for the next 18 months. We have damaged our social and economic fabric beyond measure and far out of proportion to the risks. Continuing to allow the damage to progress is unconscionable and is directly leading to the avoidable deaths of thousands who urgently require oncology/ cardiology interventions yet, not having got them, have died or are placed beyond rescue.
The initial lockdown was totally understandable. If I’d been in charge, I’d have done so. We knew too little to be sure that any alternative course of action wouldn’t lead to catastrophic loss of life. That was then. Now we can benefit from new information and perspectives. Not only will continuing lockdown allow further exsanguination of our society but leaves us vulnerable to other risks now and in the near future. How will we cope with 5 million unemployed? SMEs are ceasing to trade in large numbers. Many will not be viable after lockdown so will close and lay off all their employees. It’s been estimated for example that 80% of restaurants will not reopen if they are required to limit their numbers. Will international investors in U.K. govt debt be willing to finance a country running a budget deficit over 10% on an open-ended basis?
Anyway, as anyone who’s read this far might appreciate, I cannot communicate strongly enough the deep sense of foreboding I have. I’ve never experienced the level of cognitive dissonance that I do right now. What facts we know (even recognising the areas of ignorance) in no way accord with what is happening. This is a very unpleasant place to occupy. A friend told me “I’m terrified for myself and my children. I’m not coming out until it’s completely safe”. Is that a common view? If so, how will we ever regain confidence to conduct normal lives?