To wonder if my friends will get divorced?

[CopenhagenMaiden]

Group of 7, all happily married (afaik) and done with children.

I sometimes wonder statistically is it possible 10 years from now that out of 7 marriages will we all still be together?

Seven? I don't mean to cast aspersions but, should that number not be even?

Weird. Of course some of you will be.

Well yes, it is statistically possible.

Seven friends, all married, so 14 people in total Alphabet

Of course it's possible. But you never know where life will take you. Statistics only tell us that 50% of couples divorce (is it higher now?) They don't tell us who it'll be or why.

I think she means 7 couples.

Statistically, no, 42% (So probably about 3 couples) should split.

But if you are all on your first marriage that likelihood lowers (some people divorce several times bumping up the statistics).

Also if you are younger, it lowers further still, as less couples are choosing to marry those in shakier relationships are not feeling pressured to tie the knot which is leading to lower divorce rates amongst younger couples.

So you might statistically expect 2-3 couples to split.

Anecdotally though, I have found in circles of friends they do tend to have the same trends, so lots of divorces or lots of long marriages. Whether that’s because seeing friends split makes people question their own marriage, or because some groups of friends are more supportive to marriages in the hard times I don’t know.

That does seem a strange thing to wonder. Do you think you will divorce?

Well, no, statistically it's more likely some of you will be divorced in ten years' time.

Petty weird thing to wonder about, though.

Pretty weird! Fat fingers.

Of course it's possible, if you took the statistics at face value then a couple of those marriages might break but it's a tiny sample so the results are skewed - there's a mathematical statistics model for this (thinking way back to degree!) Also there's demographics to build in, of all kinds - age at marriage, education, career, area, religion, etc. It might be that there are extremely high divorce rates in certain parts the country due to (for example) poverty or less work opportunities, forcing couples to work away from home which in turn leads to a breakdown of the marriage. For example. There will definitely be a group of demographics who are least likely to split whereupon the statistics will be way below the average at (say) only one in 10 couples will split, or less even. On the other end of the scale there will be a group of demographic factors in which couples are highly or more likely to split, so maybe 7 out of 10. The nature of statistics is that the average doesn't really tell you the full story.

So if you took a sample of 100 then say 30% may split, the other ones that don't split that are left (70) could well contain you and your group of friends.

Well if you are all Done with DC's you are middle aged even if you don't accept that so some of you will just be dying of natural causes

all happily married (afaik)

afaik is the operative thing here.

all happily married (afaik)

afaik is the operative thing here

Well obviously I cannot speak for any other marriage but my own. So as an outsider yes they seem very happy, but it’s none of my business how their marriage is in private.

We are all in our mid to late 20s so middle aged I guess or close to.

I don’t sit there and think about it constantly. But topics come up such as visiting divorced parents etc .., some of my friends experienced their parents divorce when they were in their 20s.

Mid to late 20s and all done with children

I wonder why you consider 'mid to late 20s' middle aged?

Some will get divorced, perhaps even you. That's just how it goes.

Middle aged in your 20s? What will you being your 50s, ready for the care home?😕

be in. Not being.

Mid to late 20s is middle aged

WTF Am I then at 50?

Middle-aged in your twenties?

I'm assuming that's a typo.

It is very weird to consider mid to late twenties as middle-aged.

If that were the case then I must be an antique at 51.

Mid to late twenties is definitely not middle aged!

Yes, some of you will probably divorce.

42 percent end in divorce therefore the percentages
0 divorce 2.2 percent

From your initial post I figured you were all in your 40’s.
I’d be wondering about in 20 years time rather than 10 but yes, statistically it’s possible that there will be some divorces.
It’s funny how different friendship circles are because at 29 barely any of my friends were married and none of us had finished having kids. I was the only one married. Not any more!

Those who I have known who divorced or separated tended to be before children or within the first five years of having children. Friends I have made through DCs school have mostly stayed together.