Ukraine Invasion - Part 62

[MagicFox]

Thanks as always to everybody consistently posting and keeping us all up to date 🇺🇦

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https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-1-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. Russian forces lost ground on the battlefield in October 2026 for the second month in a row.
2. Russian forces suffered their highest monthly losses of the war thus far in October 2026, paying a growing price for their territorial losses.
3. Russian forces have managed to make marginal advances in the Dobropillya direction by committing substantial resources and personnel, but the seizure of Dobropillya would not enable sweeping Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast.
4. The Russian military command does not appear to have modified plans even for the forces defeated by Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction.
5. Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi has had cascading effects on Russian offensives against the Fortress Belt directly from the east.
6. Russian forces have not yet completed the seizure of Kostyantynivka over a year after first infiltrating into the town.
7. Russian forces continue to commit personnel and mechanized elements in the Hulyaipole direction and western Zaporizhia Oblast and are making limited and mostly local advances.
8. Russian forces continue limited offensive efforts to expand their claimed “buffer zone” along the international border in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts but have achieved only localized tactical gains.
9. Russian forces are largely deprioritizing offensive operations in the Kupyansk and Borova directions following the recent successful Ukrainian operations Vivaldi and Veles.
10. Ukraine and Turkey are advancing joint cooperation to support a limited ceasefire in the Black Sea and secure the maritime security of global grain exports, as sea transport has become increasingly dangerous amid ongoing long-range strikes.
11. Likely Russian drones violated Moldovan and Romanian airspace on the evening of October 31, as Russia continues to normalize its increasingly frequent and intense violations of European airspace.
12. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure overnight on October 31 to November 1. Russia launched 433 drones (including 64 jet-powered ones) against Ukraine overnight.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-2-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. Russia continued to intensify its long-range strike campaign against Ukraine in October 2026, particularly exploiting jet-powered drones and quasi-cruise missiles to maximize civilian harm.
2. Russia’s increasingly devastating strikes come against the backdrop of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s evolving theory of victory that hinges on the effectiveness of Russia’s long-range strike campaign to make Ukrainian civilian life untenable and disrupt and isolate the Ukrainian economy from Europe.
3. Russian forces conducted a devastating airstrike against Komyshuvakha (southeast of Zaporizhzhia City) on November 2, reportedly killing at least 18 civilians.
4. Poland is taking steps to strengthen security along Poland’s international border with Russia following recent intelligence warnings and an increase in Russian sabotage operations in Europe.
5. Likely Ukrainian hackers hacked the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations’ mobile app on November 2 following a Russian hack against Ukraine’s air alert system on November 1.
6. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ordering private Russian data centers to reserve some of their capacity for government use, likely to exert more control over Russian information systems.
7. Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian data centers are forcing the Kremlin to rapidly invest in strengthening the physical security of its digital infrastructure.
8. Russia launched 193 drones against Ukraine overnight on November 1 to 2 and 332 drones and loitering munitions during the day on November 1. Ukrainian forces likely struck Russian oil infrastructure in Samara Oblast.
9. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on November 2.

I've been really pleased by the Ice Hockey world's response to Russia being allowed to play, so many national teams have refused to play against Russia and hosting countries are refusing to issue visas. Russia mustn't be allowed to use sport to exercise soft power not.

Now that Democrats have regained control of Congress and the Senste @MissConductUS is it possible or likely that more aid will go to Ukraine?

In the grand scheme of things it’s small news but it made me happy to see this https://news.sky.com/story/students-to-be-offered-ukrainian-gcse-to-preserve-cultural-heritage-13607583

Would love to know your views too @MissConductUS

That is nice news, @Mb76 .

And presumably it will be a long term thing so even children who are now very young will eventually be able to take Ukrainian GCSE.

Helping young people stay connected to their parents' language and cultural heritage will be a very good thing. Especially since many Ukrainians will want to return to Ukraine when there's a reliable peace.

Yes, it's possible, but it won't be easy. Trump can still veto any legislation Congress passes, and Democrats won't have the 60 votes in the Senate needed to override the veto. Two Senate races are still too close to call, and if they win both, they'll have 56 seats.

That said, Trump and the Republicans, many of whom support aid to Ukraine, will need to compromise to get anything done, and Trump could go along with it if he gets something he wants from the Senate.

Overall, the changes are positive for Ukraine. Hegseth will likely be impeached or forced to step down under threat of impeachment. That will improve cooperation between Fort Fumble (the Pentagon) and the Ukrainian armed forces. Now that Trump is clearly a lame duck, Republicans are more likely to push back on his indifference to Ukraine and his bizarre attempts to negotiate with the Russians.

I'm sure I'm missing a lot, but it's 6:05 AM here, and I've just fed the cats and had my first cup of coffee, so more to come later, I'm sure.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ukraine, allies to coordinate peace efforts ahead of planned talks with Russia.
The European Commission will host talks on Ukraine in Brussels on Nov. 4, bringing together representatives from the U.S., Ukraine, NATO, and several European countries.

⚡️Update: President’s Office chief says clash near Kyiv exposes deeper social tensions despite provocations.
Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov said on Nov. 3 that the incident was “not without outside influence.”

What really happened during the clash at a National Guard facility near Kyiv?
A clash on Nov. 2 in the Petropavlivska Borshchahivka suburb of Kyiv has fueled the information war around Ukraine's mobilization.
While suspicion has grown that the incident was partly a planned provocation, the Head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Budanov, cautioned that it also exposed deeper societal tensions.

⚡️ Kyiv faces emergency power cuts, widespread water outages after Russia's largest attack on energy infrastructure this year.
The widespread power and water outages in Kyiv follow Russia's largest mass attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year, which targeted substations, transmission systems, and power plants across the country.

⚡️Former deputy defense minister appointed to lead Ukraine's state-run defense giant.
Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk, a former first deputy defense minister, has been appointed to lead Ukroboronprom, Ukraine's largest state-owned defense company, according to a Nov. 3 statement.

⚡️Norway deploys additional air defense sensors, troops near Russia border.
Norway will deploy sensors for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) and increase troop numbers in Finnmark, the country's northernmost county, which borders Russia, the Norwegian Defense Ministry announced Nov. 3.

⚡️ Ukraine charges Zelensky's former press secretary Iuliia Mendel with treason.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Prosecutor General's Office accused Iuliia Mendel of conducting "information and subversive activities against Ukraine."

⚡️Melania Trump to host Ukrainian, Russian officials at White House for Oleshky ceasefire meeting.

⚡️New Jersey governor warns importing Russian diesel 'will be met with harsh penalties' amid Trump deal.
New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill warned ports in the state that importing Russian diesel still violates federal law in a Nov. 2 letter, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's deal with Moscow.

⚡️ Norway, other European nations vow to boycott Ice Hockey World Championship if Russia returns.
"Norway will – based on the current situation and the information available to us today – not play against Russia at the World Championship in Germany in May 2027," said Norges Ishockeyforbund, Norway's ice hockey association, in a statement.

⚡️Drone strikes warehouse in southern Russia, online retailer Ozon claims.
A drone struck a logistics center belonging to Russian online retail giant Ozon in southern Russia's Adygea Republic overnight on Nov. 4, the company claimed in a press release.

Survival is 'just a bonus' — Inside one of the Ukrainian army's most dangerous jobs
Kharkiv Oblast — On a summer day in an abandoned village in eastern Ukraine, drones had just zeroed in on a house when a Russian soldier, claiming to surrender, walked out. Instead, he pulled out a grenade. Seconds later, a Ukrainian reconnaissance team opened fire and killed him, said one of its soldiers, call sign "Psycho."

Here's a pretty good rundown of Trump's situation and options:

Trump Lost Big Time. Now He Faces Some Real Tough Decisions. What to do in Iran and Ukraine and even whether to seek the resignation of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito all will require immediate attention

I think Ukraine will be in the middle of his to-do list, not the top.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ukraine, allies to coordinate peace efforts ahead of planned talks with Russia.
The European Commission will host talks on Ukraine in Brussels on Nov. 4, bringing together representatives from the U.S., Ukraine, NATO, and several European countries.

⚡️Update: President’s Office chief says clash near Kyiv exposes deeper social tensions despite provocations.
Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov said on Nov. 3 that the incident was “not without outside influence.”

What really happened during the clash at a National Guard facility near Kyiv?
A clash on Nov. 2 in the Petropavlivska Borshchahivka suburb of Kyiv has fueled the information war around Ukraine's mobilization.
While suspicion has grown that the incident was partly a planned provocation, the Head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Budanov, cautioned that it also exposed deeper societal tensions.

⚡️ Kyiv faces emergency power cuts, widespread water outages after Russia's largest attack on energy infrastructure this year.
The widespread power and water outages in Kyiv follow Russia's largest mass attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year, which targeted substations, transmission systems, and power plants across the country.

⚡️Former deputy defense minister appointed to lead Ukraine's state-run defense giant.
Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk, a former first deputy defense minister, has been appointed to lead Ukroboronprom, Ukraine's largest state-owned defense company, according to a Nov. 3 statement.

⚡️Norway deploys additional air defense sensors, troops near Russia border.
Norway will deploy sensors for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) and increase troop numbers in Finnmark, the country's northernmost county, which borders Russia, the Norwegian Defense Ministry announced Nov. 3.

⚡️ Ukraine’s anti-graft agencies probe possible SBU role in high-profile case, report firearm threats during searches.
NABU and SAPO said they had uncovered a criminal organization accused of “systematically bribing” senior law enforcement officials to secure protection for scam call centers and other illegal businesses.

⚡️ Ukraine charges Zelensky's former press secretary Iuliia Mendel with treason.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Prosecutor General's Office accused Iuliia Mendel of conducting "information and subversive activities against Ukraine."

⚡️Melania Trump to host Ukrainian, Russian officials at White House for Oleshky ceasefire meeting.

Moldova outpaces Ukraine on new EU membership roadmap
Ukraine and Moldova are both expected to make strides toward EU membership next year, even as Chisinau outpaces Kyiv on reforms, according to accession roadmaps published by the European Commission on Nov. 4.
⠀So far, EU countries have agreed to advance Kyiv's and Chisinau's bids in tandem since they applied for membership in 2022. But that arrangement is set to end with the expected opening of the final two clusters of reform to-do lists in December.

⚡️New Jersey governor warns importing Russian diesel 'will be met with harsh penalties' amid Trump deal.
New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill warned ports in the state that importing Russian diesel still violates federal law in a Nov. 2 letter, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's deal with Moscow.

⚡️ Norway, other European nations vow to boycott Ice Hockey World Championship if Russia returns.
"Norway will – based on the current situation and the information available to us today – not play against Russia at the World Championship in Germany in May 2027," said Norges Ishockeyforbund, Norway's ice hockey association, in a statement.

⚡️Canada to block Russian team from World Junior Hockey Championship, Carney says.
Canada will prevent Russia from competing in the upcoming World Junior Hockey Championship in Alberta, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Nov. 3, despite a court ruling ordering Russia's reinstatement to international hockey.

⚡️ Zelensky awards Melania Trump Ukraine’s Order of Princess Olga for humanitarian work.
The decree credited Melania Trump with a “significant personal contribution to humanitarian support for Ukraine.”

⚡️Drone strikes warehouse in southern Russia, online retailer Ozon claims.
A drone struck a logistics center belonging to Russian online retail giant Ozon in southern Russia's Adygea Republic overnight on Nov. 4, the company claimed in a press release.

⚡️Ukrainian-born US lawmaker Victoria Spartz loses congressional seat to Democrat.
Ukrainian-born Republican Congresswoman Victoria Spartz lost her reelection bid in Indiana's 5th Congressional District on Nov. 3 to Democrat J.D. Ford, ending her six-year tenure in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Survival is 'just a bonus' — Inside one of the Ukrainian army's most dangerous jobs
Kharkiv Oblast — On a summer day in an abandoned village in eastern Ukraine, drones had just zeroed in on a house when a Russian soldier, claiming to surrender, walked out. Instead, he pulled out a grenade. Seconds later, a Ukrainian reconnaissance team opened fire and killed him, said one of its soldiers, call sign "Psycho."

⚡️ Russian attacks kill 6, injure 50 across Ukraine over past day, as energy facilities targeted in multiple regions.
Russian forces continued to target the energy infrastructure of Ukraine over the past day, including Odesa, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, western Ternopil, Volyn, and Rivne oblasts, the local authorities said on Oct. 4.

⚡️ Death toll from Russian attack on Komyshuvakha rises to 37 as search operation enters 3rd day.
As of the morning of Nov. 4, 59 people were considered missing, local authorities said.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

⚡ RUSSIA’S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — NOV 4, 2026
■ 4th-highest daily 🇷🇺 casualties of the war, and the first time with 2,000+ four days in a row; highest 7-day total of the war
■ Land-based equipment losses the most since Oct 24
■ Overnight 🇷🇺 attacks: 310 strike drones, the most since Oct 31, and good drone interception rate, but 34 locations hit or affected by debris
■ Daytime 🇷🇺 attack on Nov 3: 81 strike drones, 77% shot down
■ Over the last 30 days, 🇷🇺 strikes outnumbered 🇺🇦 ones 36 to 1, the highest ratio since mid-December

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️Russia targeted a substation critical to the operation of the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant with three UAVs today, Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
He warned that such strikes pose a threat to nuclear safety across Europe. The IAEA has been informed.

🇪🇺 Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have called on the EU to terminate bilateral investment protection treaties with Russia.
Specifically, these agreements contain provisions that encourage investment in the Russian economy. Furthermore, they allow even sanctioned individuals to bring claims against EU member states before international arbitration tribunals.
Such agreements remain in force in 17 EU member states.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Germany will provide Ukraine with a winter support package and additional air defense assistance.

Latvia has called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting following Russia’s strike on a humanitarian aid distribution center in Komyshuvakha, Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said.
“Latvia has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council following Russia’s horrific attacks on civilians in Ukraine, specifically targeting a humanitarian aid distribution center in Komyshuvakha,” Braže stated.
On November 2, Russian forces struck a school in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia region, where humanitarian aid was being distributed. After the initial strike, Russian forces dropped additional aerial bombs on a shelter where people were taking cover.
According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 33 people have been killed. Rescuers have saved five people, while more than 50 may still be trapped under the rubble. He described the attack as one of Russia’s most significant crimes since 2022.
The rescue operation is now in its second day.

Hungary plans to phase out Russian gas by autumn 2027, in line with the EU deadline, the country’s Foreign Minister said.
According to Anita Orbán, Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Hungarian energy company MOL is already preparing its refineries to process non-Russian oil supplied through Croatia’s JANAF pipeline.

Kazakhstan has temporarily suspended oil exports to Russia following a drone attack, Bloomberg reports.
Oil shipments through the Atyrau–Samara pipeline have been halted, but supplies are expected to resume soon.
During the first nine months of 2026, 7.57 million tonnes of oil were transported through the pipeline. The Samara station is a key hub in Russia’s oil transportation network.

Hungary has raised no new objections to opening the final two clusters in Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations, Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s representative to the European Union, said.
He added that Hungary had requested additional time to review the documents required for the next stage of negotiations.
Kachka expressed confidence that the remaining two clusters, 4 and 5, could be opened by the end of the year.

Finland has announced it will boycott matches against Russian hockey teams as long as Russia’s war against Ukraine continue [...]
The Czech Republic and Austria have also opposed Russia’s readmission. Meanwhile, Swedish sponsor AJ Produkter has withdrawn its advertising from the 2027 World Championship.
Four national teams have refused to play against Russian hockey players following a Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) ruling allowing Russian teams to return to international tournaments.
Denmark, Latvia, Norway, and Sweden have announced boycotts, The New York Times reports.

Norway will deploy sensors from its NASAMS air defense system near the Russian border to detect drones that have strayed off course.
More than 30 additional military personnel will also be sent to the region.
Norwegian Defense Minister Tore O. Sandvik said the decision follows incidents involving drones that strayed off course in other European countries.

Poland has launched an operation to prevent sabotage and subversive activities along its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad region, Polish Police Chief Marek Boroń said in an interview with RMF FM.
In late October, authorities received warnings from the Military Intelligence Service and agencies in allied countries about possible Russian provocations, including the potential infiltration of armed groups. Poland subsequently decided to introduce preventive security measures, Boroń said.
The operation covers the Warmian-Masurian and Podlaskie regions. Police are leading the effort, with support from the military, Border Guard, and special services. Counterterrorism units have also been deployed to the border area.
A special task force has been established at the National Police Headquarters to coordinate the operation.

German company Stark Defence is developing an uncrewed vessel to monitor Russia’s “shadow fleet,” Bloomberg reports.
The company has unveiled the design for the Vanta 24, a 24-meter unmanned surface vessel scheduled for launch in 2027. It is designed to monitor Russia’s shadow fleet, protect undersea cables, and escort naval vessels in the Baltic and North Seas.
The vessel will be capable of reaching speeds of up to 64 km/h and carrying up to 50 tonnes of cargo, including weapons.
Operating uncrewed vessels is expected to be significantly cheaper than running conventional crewed ships. They could also be deployed within months, rather than taking years to build and put into service.

❗️Russian forces have struck energy infrastructure in the Zhytomyr region, causing power outages in the regional center and several districts.
According to Vitaliy Bunechko, head of the regional military administration, around 130 settlements, affecting more than 180,000 subscribers, are without electricity.
There have been no casualties or injuries.
Energy workers are already working to restore the damaged facilities.

The wives of the Ukrainian, Italian, and Estonian ambassadors have left a women’s club in Canberra after it admitted the wife of Russia’s ambassador, Politico reports.
The club accepted Irina Petrakova’s membership, explaining that rejecting her based on her country of origin could violate anti-discrimination laws.
Liana Myroshnychenko, wife of Ukraine’s ambassador, said she could not remain in the same club as “the wife of an ambassador from a country that is currently destroying my state and devastating the lives of my people.”

I think the most likely thing regarding Ukraine will be that the new House makes an example of Kegsbreath and there will be enough Senators between the two parties to remove him.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Democratic takeover of US Congress: What happens next?
With control of both chambers, Democrats can investigate the Trump administration, block nominees and advance legislation on healthcare, tariffs and the Iran war. But Trump’s veto power and Senate procedural rules will limit how much they can achieve.

Russia had up to 700 ballistic missiles and several thousand cruise missiles as of October, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) says.
Despite sanctions, Moscow can produce more than 200 cruise and ballistic missiles a month, including up to 110 ballistic missiles, according to HUR.

Trump rejected blame for the Republican midterm defeat, saying: “I wasn’t on the ballot.”
He blamed candidates’ failure to mobilize voters and acknowledged that the Iran war contributed to the outcome, as Democrats are projected to take control of both chambers of Congress.

Hakeem Jeffries is poised to become the first Black House speaker and has vowed to investigate alleged corruption in President Donald Trump’s administration.

Israel has warned Washington that Iran may use chemical weapons, The New York Times reports, though U.S. and Gulf officials are divided over the intelligence.
The allegations come amid fears of renewed fighting and ongoing U.S.-Iran talks.

Clashes Near Kyiv: What Happened at the National Guard Site?
Claims that soldiers were being held and abused at a house near Kyiv drew a crowd to its gates. The confrontation escalated into clashes involving gunfire and tear gas. Four servicemen were taken to hospital. Police denied unlawful detention, and investigators opened a criminal case.

Melania Trump will bring Russian and Ukrainian representatives together at the White House on Nov. 5.
Her office says she initiated contacts between the countries and helped secure a ceasefire in Oleshky and the surrounding area.

The US Air Force is seeking contractors to produce more than 1,000 ERAM cruise missiles for Ukraine.
The first deliveries could arrive within three months of a contract award, with the full order expected within 15 months.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov rejected Ukraine’s proposals for an immediate ceasefire and limited truces covering energy, food supplies, airspace and maritime activity.
He claimed Kyiv would use a pause to rebuild its military strength with foreign support, while saying Moscow wants a settlement addressing what it calls the war’s “root causes.”

Kyiv continues to experience widespread water and electricity disruptions following Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which damaged key facilities in the capital’s regional energy hub and triggered emergency power cuts.
The outages have also halted tram and trolleybus services, while authorities have introduced additional bus routes and opened heating points for residents.

NATO allies have agreed to provide Ukraine with €70 billion in military support in 2026, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said at a joint press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Berlin.
Merz stressed that partners must fulfill their commitment.

U.S. billionaire Todd Boehly is close to taking over Lukoil’s oil fields, refineries and gas stations outside Russia.
Reuters says the deal could be sealed within weeks — using frozen Lukoil shares, bought at a steep discount, instead of cash.

Some Russian pro-war bloggers are questioning Putin’s claim that Russia is ready to fight NATO, citing five years of failure to defeat Ukraine.
Igor Girkin and Aleksandr Khodakovsky warn of military limits, while others highlight heavy losses, limited advances and Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia.

Ukraine struck at least 30 strategic targets inside Russia in October, according to the Defense Ministry.
The targets included weapons factories, military airfields, aircraft, missile infrastructure and logistics facilities.

A massive fire is still raging for a second day at Russia’s key Samara oil hub after a Ukrainian drone strike.
The Transneft-operated site is one of Europe’s largest oil storage complexes, holding more than 1.6 million cubic meters of crude and connecting four major pipelines to Russian refineries and export routes.

New Zealand volunteer Tenby Powell has helped secure nearly 100 ambulances for Ukraine’s frontline regions.
The process has been far from straightforward, with many vehicles requiring modifications before they can be put into service. But that has not deterred him.
Powell runs his own charitable foundation, which raises donations to fund the delivery of ambulances, including from other continents.

Russian forces struck commercial warehouse facilities producing footwear in Odesa’s suburbs.
Fires broke out, destroying two cars. One person was reportedly injured, according to preliminary information.

Russia launched 289 drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles across Ukraine on Tuesday, Nov. 3, during a major attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/89050
Three drones were sent toward a substation vital to the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine’s Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal said.

Russia launched 310 drones at Ukraine overnight, striking 14 locations, the Ukrainian Air Force said.
Air defenses intercepted or suppressed 272 drones. The attacks hit civilian infrastructure.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺🇺🇸The US again wants to ask NATO allies to increase contributions for American weapons for Ukraine, even though the funding shortfall for already approved PURL packages has reached $2 billion, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
A new request could be sent as early as this month. It is not yet known exactly how much they want to raise. At the same time, the US continues supplying weapons to Ukraine even if partners have not yet transferred the money for them. If the Pentagon approves new deliveries, the shortfall could grow.
European countries, meanwhile, are increasingly cautious about financing a protracted war. Elections in Spain, France, and Italy this year or next may also affect this.
▪️PURL is a NATO program under which allies purchase American weapons for Ukraine, including Patriot missiles. Last month, the US threatened to halt supplies over Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure but did not do so. Separately, Washington approved the sale of Patriot missiles to Ukraine worth $2.1 billion. It will be paid for by Canada, Germany, Norway, and the EU.

Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin could meet as a trio for the first time at the APEC summit in China on November 18–19. The US and Russia are pressuring Beijing to agree to the talks, the Financial Times reports, citing sources.
Officials have been discussing the potential meeting for two weeks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that work on organizing it is underway. However, China has not yet decided whether to host a trilateral summit or limit itself to separate bilateral talks with Trump and Putin.
One of the main obstacles is the agenda. According to German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Xi stated that he does not plan to discuss the war in Ukraine without European participation, as it is a European war. Moscow also does not expect substantive discussions on Ukraine.
Trump has stated that he is open to a trilateral meeting but wants to focus on nuclear arms control. Beijing, however, is not interested in such talks, as the US nuclear arsenal is significantly larger than China’s.

⚡️The US is prepared to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and a recovery package for the country during trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated at a briefing with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
According to him, Ukraine’s priority issues will be critical infrastructure, unblocking the Black Sea, and a new exchange format to make prisoner releases regular.
The President believes the meeting should lay the groundwork for leader-level negotiations, but only with mandatory European participation.

The death toll from the airstrike on a school in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia region, has risen to 37. Another 59 people are considered missing. Attacks on Vilniansk and Bilenke killed three more people and injured one. Here is what is known about the aftermath in other regions:
🔴In the Kharkiv region, drones attacked a food enterprise in the Zlatopil community. In Kharkiv, a woman was injured and an educational institution was damaged.
🔴In the Rivne, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, attacks injured four people. In Dnipro, an enterprise was hit.
🔴In the Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Ternopil regions, strikes caused fires and damaged critical and energy infrastructure facilities. In two districts of Kyiv, fires broke out due to drone debris.

It would sail through the House, where only a simple majority is needed, but the Senate requires 67 votes for impeachment. That's not impossible, but it's a stretch. And Trump would force him to step down before it got that far if it looked like it was possible.

Which might in itself be a good result. Depending how quickly Trump can find a similar gitwit to take over.

A new SECDEF would need Senate confirmation, so another gitwit would not be an option. It would have to be a mainstream, normal, well qualified choice.

Hadn't thought of that! Phew!

(sudden anxious thought)

But how long does he have this senate for?

Kegsbreath isn't popular with the Republicans either. It shouldn't be too hard to find a dozen republican senators to want to impeach him, especially given that some will be wanting to distance themselves from the war, with an eye on their future career prospects.

Its worrying how much Moscow has increased both physical attacks on Ukraine and the cyber attacks on Europe more widely. Getting them in whilst they still have an ally or least NPC in the WH.

Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin could meet as a trio for the first time at the APEC summit in China on November 18–19. The US and Russia are pressuring Beijing to agree to the talks, the Financial Times reports, citing sources.

Xi Jinping is no idiot. The writing is on the wall for Trump no longer an asset for the GOP with even Vance backing away. Can’t see Jinping seeing the point of meeting with them both at the summit. Divide and conquer.

Until January 3rd.

Voting to impeach a member of your own party is close to a mortal sin in American politics, and usually results in political excommunication, so it’s not done lightly.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-3-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. Russian forces conducted a large, combined drone and missile strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight on November 2 to 3 as part of Russia’s strike campaign aimed at inflicting increasing costs on Ukrainian society and coercing Ukraine into capitulating over the winter.
2. Polish authorities prevented a Russian provocation along Poland’s international border with Russia on the night of November 2 to 3.
3. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov likely indirectly responded to Poland’s recent defensive measures against Russia by falsely framing Poland as the aggressor.
4. Ukrainian, US, and Russian officials provided new details on upcoming trilateral negotiations set to take place on November 10 and 11 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
5. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and regional authorities are increasingly cutting and delaying non-essential military and recruitment expenditures amid failures to adequately address rising budget deficits.
6. The Kremlin is weaponizing limited information about an internal Ukrainian clash to exploit genuine concern over mobilization and stoke division in Ukrainian society.
7. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure in Yaroslavl Oblast.
8. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces advanced on November 3.

Devastating

https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3mzkjaw3bad2i

🚨 42 bodies have been pulled from the ruins of a school in Komyshuvakha, flattened by a brutal Russian airstrike on Nov 2, police report.

Forensics are racing to identify the dead.

Up to 33 people remain buried beneath the concrete as rescue efforts press on.