Ukraine Invasion - Part 62

[MagicFox]

Thanks as always to everybody consistently posting and keeping us all up to date 🇺🇦

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https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. Russian forces conducted devastating daytime long-range drone and loitering munition strikes against Ukraine on October 29, killing at least 19 and injuring at least 82.
2. The October 29 strikes are part of Russia’s continued effort to launch daytime strikes to make daily life in Ukraine untenable, inflict significant civilian casualties, and damage Ukraine’s economy.
3. Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to falsely portray Ukraine as the party responsible for the humanitarian catastrophe in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, where the limited ceasefire continues without reported violations.
4. The Kremlin is attempting to drive a wedge between European countries in an attempt to undermine Europe’s negotiating position on the war in Ukraine and exclude European representatives from peace talks so long as they refuse to accept Russia’s demands, including NATO’s rollback to its 1997 borders.
5. The Kremlin is also likely setting conditions that would require Ukraine to make unilateral concessions before Russia agrees to engage in any meaningful peace negotiations in any format.
6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced south of Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced southeast of Dobropillya.

They are Stephen Miller's children.

The White House deputy chief of staff for policy and homeland security

Putin saying he wants NATO’s rollback to its 1997 borders.

Then Putin said Russia is ready for a war with Europe but does not want one, warning that any escalation would have no winners.

I mean, how worrying is this? I’m struggling to believe that Putin wants to open up multiple fronts after a bruising 4 year war with Ukraine. My assumption was he’d continue cyber attacks and propaganda assaults but not out and out conflict. Even if he feels he has an ally in Trump.

@MissConductUS is there a view from the States beyond the administration or is the US too divided to have consensus? Do you personally think Putin posturing towards the west is a concern?

Ah. In which case I'm just going to assume that the Waffen SS uniforms were in the dry cleaners and this was the closest they could manage.

The West has consistently underestimated and misunderstood Putin's level of obsession with his own view of history and what he sees as the glorious past of Russia/USSR and his personal destiny to restore this glorious past. And I think we still do.
I honestly think he's as deluded in his own view of himself as Stalin was. And capable of anything.
IMHO, obviously. And I'm definitely no expert.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-30-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. The Kremlin has been rejecting any large-scale frontline ceasefire since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered it in March 2025, despite taking enormous Russian casualties for very limited territorial gains.
2. An official Ukrainian delegation arrived on October 30 in occupied Oleshky via Gomel, Belarus and Anapa, Russia to facilitate the humanitarian ceasefire in occupied Kherson Oblast.
3. The Kremlin forced independent Russian media source Novaya Gazeta to close as part of the Kremlin’s long running effort to gain control over Russia’s information space and control the narrative about the war in Ukraine.
4. Ukrainian forces recently advanced south of Oleksandrivka. Russian forces advanced in the Hulyaipole and Orikhiv directions.
5. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on October 29 and 30.
6. Russia launched an unspecified number of Iskander-M/S-400/KN-23 ballistic missiles, four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 113 drones against Ukraine overnight.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-31-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. Russia and Ukraine completed a remarkably successful humanitarian mission in occupied Kherson Oblast, as some Ukrainian civilians returned to Ukrainian-controlled territory.
2. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces appear to have largely abided by the terms of the localized ceasefire in occupied Kherson Oblast since it came into effect on the morning of October 27, although there are limited allegations of ceasefire violations.
3. The Kremlin is refusing to compromise on its original maximalist demands from 2022 while continuing to ignore Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s offers of large-scale frontline ceasefires as Russia’s losses grow disproportionately to its territorial gains.
4. The Kremlin is attempting to portray Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russia as the obstacle to peace talks – the latest Russian effort to falsely blame Ukraine for Russia’s refusal to meaningfully engage in negotiations.
5. The Kremlin continues to try to push European leaders out of peace talks, despite Russian demands that a peace settlement restructure the European security architecture.
6. The US Department of State approved the possible sale of 500 PAC-3 Patriot ballistic missile interceptors to Ukraine, but the delivery will reportedly not occur for several years.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Borova.
8. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian defense industrial facility in Rostov Oblast and two oil refineries in Ufa, Bashkortostan Republic on October 31 and overnight on October 30 to 31.
9. Russian forces launched 134 drones against Ukraine overnight on October 30 to 31 and 168 drones and loitering munitions during the day on October 31.

I guess the questions are to what degree are his delusions and are there any rational non aggressive voices in the Kremlin being quiet for now but biding their time. Ordinary people must be increasingly upset at the loss of the young men in such high numbers. These are people’s sons, brothers, husbands and fathers.

Yes indeed. I do think in the modern connected world it gets harder and harder for people like Putin to maintain overall power by keeping everyone ignorant. Whether there are people near the top who are working quietly against him is clearly a big issue (I suspect there are). But as to more on the ground, this is a fascinating listen.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct9tsr

The theory is as long as the ordinary people are confined to the Stans Putin can get away with allowing Russian blood (in the widest sense) to continue to flow.

It's only when the sons and daughters of the bergers of Moscow and St Pete's get dragged off to the front, and for example the commuters in those cities can't get fuel for their commutes that pressure will start to be applied.

I’ve found it very interesting how the new defence readiness bill and all the stuff in the press re prepping has been linked to “the weather” alongside (less promoted) renewed commitments to Ukraine. I’m not saying weather events aren’t possible, but I wish the govt would be much clearer about how supporting Ukraine is an essential part of “resilience.” Does anybody else think this needs to be stressed more, rather than lumped in with weather OR linked to overblown and frightening narratives about shipping uk citizens off the front line? Why can’t a clear, simple narrative about deterrence and Russia’s likely involvement beyond Ukraine be put out there WITHOUT resorting to these two extremes? I’m continually frustrated by this!

I've been pondering this too and I think the short answer is that the weather is less scary to people so becomes the fall guy in this.

Clearly unnecessarily panicking British people is undesirable. However, I’m trying to understand to what degree does ‘being prepared’ entail?

Being prepared for a few days interruption to JIT supply chains due to a cyber attack is considerably different to being prepared for something more aggressive. Do I leave it at buying a few more tin cans or go full out to get a hazmat suit and face mask?!

There are so many conflicts occurring simultaneously atm in France, Poland, Germany, on top of uncertainty about Israel and the US plans for Iran. It’s concerning and I wish we had or would be given better information.

The indications of that have been there since Tony Blair's time and before. I think you're right.

I also think that ordinary Russian people are mostly entirely unable to see beyond "this invasion is the West's fault!" from all I've heard. It's the line that's been fed by TV for a long time and by the controlled internet, heavily. Most polls, even the closest to independent ones say that Russians support Putin. (The fact that there are no truly independent ones show quite a bit on its own). The claims that people in Estonia and Latvia etc actually want to live under the Russian sphere of influence are believed - actual history is re-written.

I think he wants to re-created the Russia of his childhood.

Yes, the problem is, they’re not being specific enough about the threat. I think it’s fine to panic people with the truth, but panicking them with worst case (and quite unrealistic) scenarios about eg conscription to a front line is just pointless. Maybe we will need civilians to help if an emergency happens at home, and maybe there will be serious cut offs that impact people thanks to Russia’s sub threshold sabotage, so say that! Focus on what may well happen and how it might impact people and why. I imagine the public will find this more of enough of a motivation to get behind increased defence spending and more support to Ukraine. Or maybe I’m being naive but…really?

@DrBlackbird I suspect not even the people at the top have crystal balls where Iran is concerned.

My own view fwiw is keep three weeks' of water and dried/tinned food, not three days, and ensure you have a few decent med kits around, at the least. If you need much more than that, all the cards are in the air and we're in genuine trouble.

But I have a bleak view that our extreme societal specialization + climate change + the huge gap between rich and poor + particularly the over-globalization that's happened means that we're walking a tightrope and one day it'll fray. We don't grow enough food and while every council has to have plans for how massive disasters will be handled, I don't have much faith in them.

I don't think that this conflict is going to be it though. I think we'll muddle through this, with the West weaker and China and Russia stronger.

It's not an issue that gets much discussion here because he's very unlikely to attack the US directly, and the likelihood of him starting a conventional kinetic conflict in Europe is viewed as low.

Putin has always wanted a NATO rollback, but he has no real leverage to force NATO to chuck out all of the new members. My view is that militarily you have to prepare for what Russia is capable of doing, not what you think it likely will do. Russia is quite capable of attacking Europe. Its air force and navy are largely intact, and its army is still large enough to be a threat.

As far as ground forces go, you have to look at what Europe has to defend itself with. The situation on the eastern flank is improving

https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/strengthening-natos-eastern-flank

But it's still not where it should be, and the forces there are fragmented into nine different commands, which isn't ideal.

Then you have to look at second-echelon and reserve troops that could be deployed, and the situation looks better, but still not decisive because most European armies are badly under-resourced. Troops would have to be surged from the continental US, which then becomes a question of political will as well as military capability.

I don't think Putin would try his arm until after the war in Ukraine is largely over and he has a chance to reconstitute the Russian army, but as I said earlier, you have to prepare for what the enemy might do, not what you think they will do.

Sorry for the long answer.

Agree with @MissConductUS .

I suspect a lot of the shouting about preparedness might be down to worries about the UK power /national grid falling down for a time, rather than cyber attacks/real attacks from whoever...

There is a certain segment of British politics (the hard right fyi) who are driving the narrative that any preparedness for war is actually the government wanting war and so are deliberately taking s in that direction.

It's incredibly unhelpful and means the government needs to tread softly or we will be in a real mess.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ukraine hits plant producing fuel for Russian multiple-launch rocket systems in Rostov Oblast, military says.
The plant, located in the Russian city of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, produces solid rocket propellant for the Uragan, Smerch, and Tornado-S multiple-launch rocket systems.

⚡️ US warns Russia of 'mass-casualty event' threat at historic palace outside Moscow.
The U.S. Embassy said it considered the information about the potential incident "a credible threat" and was coordinating with Russian authorities.

⚡️ Oleshky residents reach Ukrainian-controlled territory after escaping Russian occupation.
The city's residents, who had been trapped in a worsening humanitarian crisis for months on end, arrived to an emotional reception at the border crossing with Belarus by relatives, health workers with ambulances, aid organizations, police, and media.

⚡️Russia suffers record troop losses in October, its worst month since full-scale invasion, Ukraine says.
According to the data from the General Staff, Russia's estimated losses reached 54,400 soldiers in October.

⚡️Russian airstrike destroys Kramatorsk city council building that survived 2014 occupation.
A Russian airstrike destroyed the Kramatorsk City Council's executive committee building in Donetsk Oblast on Oct. 31, local authorities reported.

⚡️Russian oil refinery in Kstovo ablaze after reported overnight drone strike.
A major Russian oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, was reportedly targeted in a drone attack overnight on Nov. 1, according to Ukrainian monitoring channels.

Ukraine never agreed to pause strikes on Russian refineries, sources confirm
Ukraine’s campaign targeting Russian oil refineries is ongoing, Ukrainian officials told the Kyiv Independent, rejecting reports that Kyiv had agreed to suspend the strikes.
Despite a proposal from U.S. envoy Jared Kushner for a 30-day halt, officials confirmed no such order was given. Less than 24 hours later, multiple Ukrainian drones struck the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Russia's Samara Oblast.
Another senior Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine would continue to strike Russian oil infrastructure but would not publicly take credit for such strikes, while sources close to the administration noted the CIA was still supplying Ukraine with intelligence on Russian air defense dispositions that helped facilitate the campaign.

⚡️Russia has killed 120 members of the clergy, Zelensky says.
Russian attacks have killed about 120 members of the clergy in Ukraine and damaged over 800 religious institutions since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview on Oct. 31.

[yesterday]
⚡️ Russian attacks kill 5, injure at least 46 as Ukraine faces 'difficult' energy situation.
Ukrainian forces downed 105 out of the 134 drones, including jet-powered attack drones, launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported. Russian drones struck 20 different locations, and debris fell in 10 areas, according to the statement.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social
⚡ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — NOV 1, 2026
■ ISW: Longest local ceasefire since 2022 let civilians leave occupied Oleshky for Ukrainian-held territory ■ October was a record month both for 🇷🇺 casualties and for locations in 🇺🇦 hit or affected by debris
■ Joint 3rd-highest daily 🇷🇺 casualties of the war, as combat engagements rose well above average
■ Overnight 🇷🇺 attacks: most strike drones since Oct 15 but decent drone interception rate; 30 locations hit or affected by debris ■ Daytime 🇷🇺 attack on Oct 31: 168 strike drones, 73% shot down
■ Record month of 🇺🇦 drones launched into 🇷🇺 and occupied 🇺🇦 (392 per night on average)
■ Russia's fossil fuel export income up 39% year on year in October, to €20 billion
■ 🇷🇺 drones used at the front the fewest since late April, and drone losses well below average

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington is still trying to determine whether a peaceful, negotiated solution to Russia’s war against Ukraine is possible, stressing that no one is suggesting a settlement is imminent.

Ukraine and Türkiye have agreed to continue working on restoring the Black Sea Grain Corridor. President Zelenskyy and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the agreement following a meeting in Istanbul.
Erdoğan said he considers attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea unacceptable. The leaders also discussed the possibility of Türkiye joining trilateral talks between Ukraine, the United States, and Russia.
President Zelenskyy also noted that a free trade agreement between the two countries has already entered into force.

The humanitarian mission to evacuate residents of Oleshky has been successfully completed.
The operation followed complex negotiations and preparations, with assistance and coordination from U.S. First Lady Melania Trump. During the ceasefire, roads were cleared of mines, humanitarian aid was delivered, and residents in need were evacuated. The team also rescued people from neighboring settlements who had been waiting along the roadside to return to Ukraine.
The evacuees range in age from just over one year to 94. One woman will celebrate her 49th birthday tomorrow—in safety.
The mission also rescued residents’ pets, including dogs, cats, a parrot, and even a raccoon.
Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said the evacuees will continue receiving support after the mission ends. Accompanied by Ukrainian representatives, they will travel to a hospital in the Kyiv region to receive medical care.

Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said residents evacuated from the occupied city of Oleshky in the Kherson region fell into three categories: those who wanted to remain under Russian occupation, those seeking to return to Ukraine, and those wishing to move to Russia.
“Some people there said, ‘No, we want to stay.’ We brought them a significant amount of humanitarian aid. As for those who said, ‘We want to go to Ukraine’ — well, you see them here today. There were also people who said, ‘We want to go to the territory of the Russian Federation.’ I told them, ‘That is your choice; we are prepared to assist you as well,’” Lubinets said.
He stressed that the mission’s priority was to save people, regardless of how many could be evacuated.

U.S. Democratic Senator Michael Bennet described American support for Ukraine as a strategic investment in U.S. national security, rather than charity, following a conversation with Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.

UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband confronted Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting, accusing Moscow of having no intention of ending its war against Ukraine and warning that Russia would not win.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Zelensky announced plans to negotiate with international partners to secure an emergency loan of 10 to 30 air defense missiles from their stockpiles, with Kyiv guaranteeing reimbursement from the newly approved US purchase of 500 Patriot interceptors.

Russia has suffered 1.4 million to 2.1 million military casualties since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including 374,000 to 770,000 troops killed, the Economist estimates.
That is up from its May 2026 estimate of 1.1 million to 1.5 million total casualties, including 280,000 to 518,000 deaths.

Russian missile and drone strikes on Oct. 30 damaged power plants, four substations, gas distribution hubs and rail infrastructure across Kyiv, Dnipro, Shostka and Kharkiv, Zelensky said.
About 280,000 households lost power, including 200,000 in Dnipropetrovsk region and more than 80,000 in Kyiv region. Repair crews are working to restore electricity.

President Stubb rejected reports that Putin lectured him and Norwegian PM Støre on medieval Slavic history during their Oct. 27 call.
Stubb said the call was made at Ukraine’s request to open a direct channel to Moscow. He stressed that Finland is not a neutral mediator and backs Ukraine “100 percent” — a message he said he delivered directly to Putin.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Overnight, the Russians launched 433 drones at Ukraine. Air defense neutralized 371 of them.
However, impacts were recorded in 16 locations, with debris falling in 14. In particular, in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, a Russian strike destroyed the building of the executive committee.
In the Vinnytsia region, energy facilities were hit overnight; mobile communications towers, a warehouse, and houses were damaged.
This morning, the Russians struck Izium in the Kharkiv region — 10 houses were damaged. No casualties were reported. A drone attack on Kyiv has been ongoing since morning — emergency power outages have been introduced there.

This week, Russia launched 1,940 strike drones, over 1,580 guided aerial bombs, and 44 missiles at Ukraine, 36 of them ballistic, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported.
Just overnight, the Russians attacked energy facilities in the Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi regions. In particular, 650 settlements in the Zhytomyr region have been without power since morning, and nearly 100,000 people in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Today, the Russians also attacked the Rivne region — 4 people were injured. In the Sumy region, a drone attacked a residential area, and then struck again while rescuers were working at the scene. Six people were injured.
The Lviv region was also under attack this morning. Drone debris fell on houses and damaged cars and a warehouse. No casualties were reported.

Very much agree.

Yep it’s the tabloids like the Mail and the express that are pushing a lot of that narrative