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Ukraine Invasion: Part 57

1000 replies

MagicFox · 20/05/2025 10:49

Welcome to 57. Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

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Natsku · 22/05/2025 19:18

Thanks for the new thread

WinterMorn · 22/05/2025 22:24

Here for it - thank you Magic

blueshoes · 23/05/2025 02:51

Thank you @MagicFox

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is fostering the formation of an informal state ideology based on Russian nationalism that positions Russia in opposition to the West as part of ongoing efforts to militarize and unify Russian society.
  • Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin β€” one of the most outspoken Russian ultranationalists in Putin's inner circle β€” expressed support for the inclusion of an informal state ideology based on Russian nationalism in the Russian Constitution.
  • Russian authorities are renewing their years-long narrative rejecting the legality of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, possibly to deny Ukrainian and Belarusian sovereignty and independence in the future.
  • Russian authorities and state media continue to publicly question the legitimacy of the Ukrainian negotiating team and the Ukrainian government, likely to further efforts to reject and delay negotiations and to set conditions to renege on any future peace agreement with Ukraine.
  • Recent Western reporting provided additional details in a case in which Russian forces executed Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in November 2024, supporting ISW's assessment that high-level Russian military commanders are likely involved in these executions.
  • Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov confirmed on May 22 Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev's appointment as Russian Ground Forces Commander.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
* *
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 23/05/2025 08:30

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Romania's top court rejects (kyivindependent.com/romania-top-court-rejects-candidate-simions-bid-to-annul-presidential-election-results/) far-right candidate Simion's bid to annul presidential election results.

⚑️Kyiv proposes (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-seeks-long-term-defense-funding-from-eu-proposes-integrating-armed-forces-into-european-security-system/) EU partners help directly fund Ukrainian military under new model.
Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko said Kyiv is proposing a new model: EU partners would help fund the Ukrainian military, and in return, Ukraine would be further integrated into the continent's defense system.

⚑️G7 leaders pledge to freeze Russian assets (kyivindependent.com/g7-leaders-pledge-to-freeze-russian-assets-until-war-ends-support-ukraines-recovery/) until war ends, support Ukraine's recovery.

⚑️Putin claims Russia preparing 'security buffer zone' (kyivindependent.com/putin-claims-russia-preparing-security-buffer-zone-along-ukrainian-border/) along Ukrainian border.

⚑️Russia cuts key projects (kyivindependent.com/russia-cuts-key-projects-in-aviation-tech-auto-industries-as-oil-revenues-plummet/) in aviation, tech, auto industries as oil revenues plummet.
The Russian government is slashing budgets for major projects across a number of sectors amid an economic downturn and oil price collapse, the pro-Kremlin news outlet Kommersant reported.

⚑️EU parliament backs (kyivindependent.com/eu-parliament-backs-tariffs-on-fertilizers-from-russia-belarus/) tariffs on fertilizers from Russia, Belarus.
"The regulation gradually increasing customs duties for products from Russia and Belarus will help to prevent Russia from using the EU market to finance its war machine," said Inese Vaidere, Latvian Member of the European Parliament.

Ukraine war latest: Mass Ukrainian drone strike targets Moscow, Russia claims, multiple airports closed
(kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-9-ukrainian-children-rescued-from-russian-occupied-territories-presidents-office-says/)
Russian air defense systems shot down 105 Ukrainian drones overnight on May 22, including 35 intercepted over Moscow Oblast, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed.

⚑️US-sanctioned Russian factory reportedly targeted (kyivindependent.com/us-sanctioned-russian-plant-reportedly-targeted-in-drone-attack-on-lipetsk-oblast/) in Ukrainian drone attack on Lipetsk Oblast.

⚑️Stripping Hungary's EU voting rights (kyivindependent.com/stripping-hungarys-eu-voting-rights-on-agenda-for-may-27-meeting/) on agenda for May 27 meeting.
The Council of the European Union will hold a hearing regarding the potential loss of Hungary's voting rights at a meeting on May 27, marking the eighth hearing regarding Budapest's alleged violations of founding EU principles.

Ukraine war latest: Mass Ukrainian drone strike targets Moscow, Russia claims, multiple airports closed
(kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-9-ukrainian-children-rescued-from-russian-occupied-territories-presidents-office-says/)
Russian air defense systems shot down 105 Ukrainian drones overnight on May 22, including 35 intercepted over Moscow Oblast, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed.

⚑️Ukrainian defense firms urge Zelensky (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-defense-firms-urge-president-zelensky-to-lift-drone-export-restrictions-amid-growing-industry-crisis/) to lift drone export restrictions in open letter.
The letter, signed by leading representatives of Ukraine's defense-industrial sector, highlights the strategic potential of the country's homegrown military technologies, from drones to electronic warfare systems, and calls for decisive political action to authorize the controlled export of surplus weaponry to allied nations.

⚑️North Korea's Kim reportedly lashes out (kyivindependent.com/north-koreas-kim-reportedly-lashes-out-after-failed-warship-launch/) after failed warship launch, calls it 'criminal act.'
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un condemned the failed launch as a "criminal act" and placed blame on several state institutions, accusing relevant officials of "irresponsibility" which "could not be tolerated." [poor officials]

⚑️9 Ukrainian children rescued (kyivindependent.com/nine-ukrainian-children-rescued-from-russian-occupied-territories-presidential-office-says/) from Russian-occupied territories, President's Office says.
Among the rescued children is a girl whose life was in danger due to the lack of adequate medical care in the occupied territories, and a boy who, along with his mother, was locked in a basement by Russian forces while his father was tortured in a nearby room, Presidential Office chief Andriy Yermak said.

⚑️Russia says (kyivindependent.com/russia-says-159-ukrainian-drones-shot-down-in-less-than-a-day/) 159 Ukrainian drones shot down in less than a day.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 57
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 23/05/2025 08:56

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

President Zelenskyy shared details about preparations for a prisoner exchange in the "1000 for 1000" format.
He said the agreement was almost the only concrete result of the meeting in TΓΌrkiye.

Putin has only a few days before the U.S. imposes sanctions, say Senators Richard Blumenthal and Lindsey Graham.
In a joint statement, they said there’s no confidence that Russia is taking the situation seriously and accused Putin of β€œplaying games.”
The sanctions bill already has the support of 81 out of 100 senators and will be put to a vote soon.

Tariffs on nitrogen fertilizer imports from Belarus and Russia to the EU will rise to €430 per ton by 2028, following approval by the European Parliament.
The new progressive duties will take effect on July 1 and increase gradually. Currently, these imports face a 6.5% duty, but by mid-2026 the tariffs will rise to €45 per ton.
The goal is to make fertilizer trade economically unviable for Russia and its ally.
The measure also includes higher tariffs on Russian and Belarusian agricultural products. The EU plans to replace these imports with its own production or alternative suppliers like Algeria and Egypt.

Switzerland is ready to host future meetings on a peaceful settlement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, said Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, following a conversation with the country’s national security adviser, Gabriel LΓΌchinger.

❗️Russians are equipping their air-to-air missiles with nuclear warheads β€” US Department of Defense Intelligence Agency
The name of the missile is not announced, but the most likely option in this context is the R-37M missile, which is capable of hitting targets 200 km away.

πŸ‡°πŸ‡΅ Kim Jong-un watches as new destroyer launches, narrow-eyed dictator furious β€” The Guardian
Kim was present when the 5,000-ton destroyer lost its balance during its launch in the eastern port city of Chongjin on Wednesday. The capsizing caused damage to sections of the hull, state news agency KCNA reported on Thursday.
He ordered the ship to be repaired in time for a key meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party next month. The accident β€œled to the collapse of our nation’s dignity and self-respect.”
South Korea said the ship was lying on its side in the water after the impact.

πŸ‡³πŸ‡± Gardeners from the Netherlands donated nets originally meant for growing bulbous plants.
The Special Operations Forces of Ukraine will use these nets to shield logistics routes from FPV drone attacks on the front line.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 23/05/2025 09:00

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Finland is β€œpreparing for the worst” if the war in Ukraine ends, says Sami Nurmi, head of strategy for Finland’s Defence Forces.
He warns the military is closely monitoring Russian maneuvers near the border:
β€œThey’re reshaping structures and moderately preparingβ€”building infrastructure close to us. Once the war ends, we expect Russia to redeploy its combat forces here, especially ground troops.”
Earlier, The New York Times reported increased Russian military activity near Finland.

The US will once again review all assistance provided to Ukraine in recent years, and in case of any violations, the matter will be addressed β€” US Secretary of State Rubio.
β€œIf we ever uncover any illegal appropriation or manipulation, we will definitely take action.β€œ

Trump ambushed South Africa’s president with a video falsely alleging white genocide in the country, drawing parallels to his infamous White House meeting with Zelensky. (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/53164)

Ukraine’s long-range drones are rewriting modern warfareβ€”Chuck Pfarrer unpacks bold strikes, EW tactics, and how Kyiv turned Victory Day into a strategic win.
www.kyivpost.com/videos/53172

Ukraine hands over list to Russia for the "1000-for-1000" POW exchange (www.kyivpost.com/post/53180) - refuting Kremlin denials. Kyiv says it's ready. Moscow says it’s still "waiting."

No miracle will restore 1991 borders (www.kyivpost.com/post/53200) – Ukraine must fight smart or not at all β€” Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UK and former chief of the Armed Forces, Zaluzhny

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 23/05/2025 09:03

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡±πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki has pledged to block Ukraine from joining NATO.
β€œToday, the discussion about Ukraine’s accession to NATO is completely groundless. Ukraine’s entry into NATO would place the entire North Atlantic Alliance in a state of war with the Russian Federation,” he emphasized.
Nawrocki also stressed that he would not allow Polish soldiers to be deployed to Ukrainian territory. He signed a declaration affirming both positions.
β–ͺ️The second round of Poland’s presidential election will take place on June 1. Nawrocki’s opponent is RafaΕ‚ Trzaskowski, representing the ruling Civic Coalition.

❗️Russian leader Vladimir Putin has announced the creation of a so-called β€œsecurity buffer zone” along the Russian-Ukrainian border, according to Russian state news agency TASS on May 21.
Putin claimed (tass.ru/politika/24021137) that the initiative is already being implemented by Russian Armed Forces units.
Putin has specified where he plans to establish the so-called security buffer zone along the border between Ukraine and Russia. It will include the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions. It still remains unclear what specific military or administrative measures Russia plans to undertake within the framework of this buffer zone.
Earlier, Pavel Zolotaryov, head of the Glushkovsky district in Russia’s Kursk region, told (united24media.com/latest-news/sumy-must-be-ours-kursk-district-leader-urges-putin-to-annex-another-ukrainian-region-8552) Russian leader Vladimir Putin that the Ukrainian city of Sumy should be annexed to Russia.
Zolotaryov said that Sumy must belong to Russia during a meeting between Putin and local officials in Kursk. The remark came in response to Putin’s question about how far Ukrainian forces should be pushed back from the Russian border.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated (united24media.com/latest-news/russian-forces-launch-and-continue-offensive-operations-across-all-fronts-says-zelenskyy-8410) that Russian forces have launched and are continuing offensive operations across all front lines.

Overnight, drones targeted the β€œEnergia” plant in Russia’s Lipetsk region.
Eyewitnesses reported at least 10 explosions.
The β€œEnergia” plant is one of the largest manufacturers of power sources in Russia, producing, among other things, batteries for UAVs, components for communication systems, electronic warfare (EW) equipment, and parts for Iskander and Kinzhal missiles.

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ The Spanish company Maxam, which manufactures explosives, continues operating in Russia despite sanctions.
Investigations have revealed that the company maintains cooperation with Russian sanctioned banks, produces explosives inside Russia, and supplies detonators through third countries.
Back in 2022, Spain’s Minister of Industry and Trade claimed that Maxam was not conducting business in Russia and was complying with sanctions. However, the company’s financial reports and production data suggest otherwise.
In 2022, Maxam’s Russian subsidiary received detonators and explosive components worth nearly $300,000, and in January 2024, shipments totaled over $1.4 million.

Russia launched a massive drone attack on the Poltava region β€” a facility in the Kremenchuk community was destroyed.
A drone hit the building of the enterprise, and debris from downed UAVs also fell on the site. Firefighters managed to localize the blaze, and work is ongoing. One person was injured.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 57
notimagain · 23/05/2025 12:34

❗️Russians are equipping their air-to-air missiles with nuclear warheads β€” US Department of Defense Intelligence Agency

For context whilst it's gone out of fashion but that was something some Western nations have done in the past.

It was seen as a good way of breaking up mass formations of Soviet Long Range bombers...

MissConductUS · 23/05/2025 16:04

notimagain · 23/05/2025 12:34

❗️Russians are equipping their air-to-air missiles with nuclear warheads β€” US Department of Defense Intelligence Agency

For context whilst it's gone out of fashion but that was something some Western nations have done in the past.

It was seen as a good way of breaking up mass formations of Soviet Long Range bombers...

That was the AIM-26A, which also had a conventional warhead in the AIM-26B configuration.

More info here on the Russian missile.

Russia Fielding New Nuclear-Armed Air-To-Air Missiles: U.S. Intel - A nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile sounds like a Cold War relic, but the Pentagon assesses that Russia is introducing a new weapon of this type.

Mass bomber attacks aren't really a thing anymore, due to ICBMs capable of carrying multiple warheads, so I'm not sure why the Russians would be putting resources into this now.

AIM-26 Falcon - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-26_Falcon

notimagain · 23/05/2025 16:31

There's a long history to this sub-sub topic of air to air nukes that goes back even earlier than the Falcon, for example there was the unguided Genie that carried a 1.5 kt warhead, deployed by the USAF and the Canadians...

Can't really comment on why the Russians are going nuclear tipped now. They might well have good operational reasons, it also might be they envisage "dual role", both air to air and air to ground..in much the same way as they dual role some of their SAMs..

I think the important thing to be aware of in the current climate and with regard to this conflict is nuclear tipped air to air rockets/missiles are not a new thing...they just went out of fashion for a while.

MissConductUS · 23/05/2025 18:57

Here's some coverage of the prisoner swap that's underway, with a bit of commentary about Trump's two hour call with Putin:

Russia and Ukraine Begin Biggest Prisoner Swap of the War - Trump celebrates exchange as significant step, though Russia continues to refuse a cease-fire

In better news, this brought a smile to my lips:

Kim Jong Un’s New Warship Capsizes at Launch Due to β€˜Absolute Carelessness’

I don't know if this is still how the North Koreans execute citizens who fall afoul of the regime, but in the past they've done the following: take the prisoner to a firing range, fire a mortar shell, place prisoner in the impact crater of the mortar shell, and fire a second mortar shell. You have to give them credit for creativity.

PerkingFaintly · 23/05/2025 22:36

Wonderful to see Ukrainians make it home.

DuncinToffee · 24/05/2025 10:36

British security officials are investigating whether Russia may be involved in three arson attacks on properties connected to Sir Keir Starmer, according to senior Whitehall figures. https://www.ft.com/content/0fb7a268-1bf6-4faf-ac60-67c53ddf1e62

UK investigates possible Russian involvement in Starmer arson attacks

Counterterrorism police looking into fires at properties connected to prime minister keep open mind about motive

https://www.ft.com/content/0fb7a268-1bf6-4faf-ac60-67c53ddf1e62

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 24/05/2025 11:20

Natsku · 24/05/2025 09:44

Finnish general: Russia could pose a threat to Nato in 3-5 years
https://yle.fi/a/74-20163403

In the sense of minimum time it would take Russia to build up its forces again

Given this comment and Rutte's comment that Russia is building up a huge war machine - 4 x the shells manufactured daily than in the combined West - honestly, unless Putin dies and the successor is less appalling, I think war is coming. Too many people, including Rutte and mililtary top leaders, have said similar.

Natsku · 24/05/2025 11:24

I also think war could be avoided if the west collectively backs Ukraine far far more. Make a solid show of strength and unity, enough to defeat Russia rather than just enough for Ukraine to hold on.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 24/05/2025 11:38

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Ukraine can only wage (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-4/) a 'high-tech war of survival' against Russia, Zaluzhnyi says.
Ukraine cannot expect to return Russian-occupied territories as long as Moscow has the resources to continue its war, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former commander-in-chief and current ambassador to the U.K., said on May 22.

⚑️Ukraine, US officially launch joint Reconstruction Investment Fund (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-officially-launch-joint-reconstruction-investment-fund/). 
"The last step was a diplomatic note from the United States, which I personally received this morning. The Fund is officially launched," Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said on May 23.

⚑️Ukraine would like Trump to attend (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-would-like-trump-to-attend-potential-zelensky-putin-meeting-sybiha-says/) potential Zelensky-Putin meeting, Sybiha says.

⚑️Ukraine denies (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-denies-russian-troop-presence-in-yunakivka-sumy-oblast-suspilne-reports/) Russian presence in Sumy Oblast border village, media reports.
Earlier, Russia's state-run news agency TASS claimed that Russian forces had entered Yunakivka, a village near the Russian border in Sumy Oblast.

⚑️BREAKING: Ukraine, Russia begin (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-russia-begin-biggest-swap-of-prisoners-of-war-since-beginning-of-full-scale-invasion/) biggest POW swap since start of Russian invasion in 2014.

Chaos to coordination: the evolution of POW swaps in the Russia-Ukraine war
(kyivindependent.com/prisoner-exchanges-in-the-ukraine-russia-war-have-transformed/)
The nature, size, and political significance of prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia have evolved significantly over the three and a half years of the full-scale war, accelerating sharply in recent weeks.

⚑️EU to sanction (kyivindependent.com/eu-to-sanction-nord-stream-2-pipeline-as-russia-rejects-ceasefire-bloomberg-reports/) Nord Stream 2 pipeline as Russia rejects Ukraine ceasefire, Bloomberg reports.

⚑️Pentagon may downgrade (kyivindependent.com/pentagon-may-downgrade-ukraine-focused-office-amid-policy-restructure-media-reports/) Ukraine-focused office amid policy restructure, media reports.
While no staff cuts are currently planned, the restructuring would mark a demotion for an office that helped coordinate the delivery of over $130 billion in security aid to Ukraine, roughly half of which came from the United States, according to Defense News.

⚑️ Polish jets intercept (kyivindependent.com/polish-jets-intercept-russian-su-24-over-baltic-sea-after-dangerous-maneuvers/) Russian bomber over Baltic Sea after 'dangerous' maneuvers.
According to Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, the Russian aircraft posed a threat to regional airspace safety.

⚑️Russian jets violate Finnish airspace (kyivindependent.com/russian-jets-violate-finnish-airspace-defense-ministry-says/), defense ministry says.
Two Russian military aircraft are suspected of violating Finland's airspace, the country's defense ministry reported on May 23. [@notimagain I know this is a regular occurrence but it seems to be stepping up in the last days]

⚑️German company shipped (https://kyivindependent.com/german-company-ships-restricted-technology-to-russia-despite-eu-sanctions-politico-reports/) restricted technology to Russia despite EU sanctions, Politico reports.
According to the report, Kontron used the Slovenian entity to ship over 3.5 million euro ($3.9 million) worth of telecommunications equipment to its Russian subsidiary, Iskra Technologies, between July and November 2023.

⚑️Russia’s top exporters slash rail shipments (kyivindependent.com/russias-top-exporters-slash-rail-shipments-amid-economic-slowdown-reuters-reports/) amid economic slowdown, Reuters reports.
A document seen by Reuters reveals that firms such as Rusal and Gazpromneft intend to reduce the volumes they plan to move by rail in 2025, prompting Russian Railways to slash spending by an additional 32.5 billion rubles ($408 million).

⚑️ Russian chemical plant, missile parts manufacturer targeted (kyivindependent.com/russian-factories-targeted-in-alleged-ukrainian-drone-strike/) in alleged Ukrainian drone strike.
A Russian factory in Lipetsk Oblast making missile parts and a chemical plant in Tula Oblast were targeted by drones overnight on May 24, independent news channel Astra reported.

⚑️EU mulls (kyivindependent.com/eu-reportedly-considers-cutting-over-20-russian-banks-from-swift-banning-nord-stream-in-fresh-sanctions-package/) cutting over 20 Russian banks from SWIFT, banning Nord Stream in new sanctions, Bloomberg reports.
The new measures under consideration would also include lowering the Group of Seven oil price cap on Russian crude exports from $60 to around $45 per barrel.

⚑️Top executive at sanctioned Russian defense company reportedly injured (kyivindependent.com/top-worker-of-russian-defense-factory-reportedly-injured-in-hammer-attack-in-kurgan/) in hammer attack.
Andrey Kondratyev, deputy general director and chief designer at the Russian defense enterprise Kurganpribor, was attacked with a hammer in the city of Kurgan on May 22, the local outlet Oblast 45 reported.

⚑️Russian military helicopter crashes (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-helicopter-crashes-in-oryol-oblast/) in Oryol Oblast.
A Russian Mi-8 combat helicopter crashed near the village of Naryshkino in Russia's Oryol Oblast on May 23, killing the crew, the state-controlled news agency TASS reported, citing the Russian army's Moscow Military District. The district attributed the crash to a technical malfunction.

⚑️ Russia strikes (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-odesa-port-with-ballistic-missiles-kills-1-injures-8/) Odesa port with ballistic missiles, kills 1, injures 8.

⚑️ Update: Ukraine downs (kyivindependent.com/explosions-reported-in-kyiv-amid-russian-drone-attack/) 6 out of 14 Russian ballistic missiles, 245 out of 250 drones failed to reach target, Air Force says.

⚑️ Russia executes (kyivindependent.com/russia-executes-2-captured-ukrainian-soldiers-near-pokrovsk-prosecutors-say/) 2 Ukrainian POWs near Pokrovsk, prosecutors say.

⚑️'Shoot them on the spot' β€” Ukraine's military intel records (kyivindependent.com/shoot-them-on-the-spot-ukraines-intel-records-150-cases-of-russia-executing-pows/) over 150 cases of Russia executing POWs.
The agency noted that this figure includes those cases recorded by HUR, suggesting the actual total may be higher.

⚑️UPDATE: 8 injured (kyivindependent.com/explosions-reported-in-kyiv-amid-russian-drone-attack/) as Russia hits Kyiv with drones, ballistics hours after largest prisoner exchange kicks off.

⚑️ 13 killed, 51 receive medical care after Russian strikes (kyivindependent.com/attacks-152/) on Ukraine over past day.

β€ͺRagnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦β€¬ β€ͺ@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
Β· 48m
⚑️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA – MAY 24, 2025
β–  Most engagements since early May; casualties above avg
β–  Heavy equipment losses; land-based as well as drones
β–  Visually confirmed: 2.4x πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί/πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ (1.4x in last 30 days)
β–  Strikes excl. last night (only for yesterday)

Ukraine Invasion: Part 57
MissConductUS · 24/05/2025 11:38

Natsku · 24/05/2025 11:24

I also think war could be avoided if the west collectively backs Ukraine far far more. Make a solid show of strength and unity, enough to defeat Russia rather than just enough for Ukraine to hold on.

That would certainly help, but it would have to be accompanied by a significant expansion of combat power by the Europeans over the next 3-5 years.

Don't confuse combat power with military expenditures. Higher expenditures are necessary but not sufficient to create more combat power. The money has to be spent effectively and efficiently. Something along these lines needs to be done as well:

U.S. Army 2025 Restructuring: Strategic Realignment and Industrial Impact - Defense Update:

The U.S. Army’s 2025 restructuring marks a decisive pivotβ€”from legacy platforms to precision fires, autonomy, and rapid mobility. While this transformation opens new opportunities in missiles, drones, and sustainment tech, it also puts pressure on trad...

https://defense-update.com/20250505_us-army-2025-restructuring.html

Natsku · 24/05/2025 11:49

MissConductUS · 24/05/2025 11:38

That would certainly help, but it would have to be accompanied by a significant expansion of combat power by the Europeans over the next 3-5 years.

Don't confuse combat power with military expenditures. Higher expenditures are necessary but not sufficient to create more combat power. The money has to be spent effectively and efficiently. Something along these lines needs to be done as well:

Oh yes combat power needs to be increased greatly, and there's a lot of lessons we can learn from Ukraine about what is needed more in warfare these days, so focus can go to the right areas.

notimagain · 24/05/2025 11:54

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

[@notimagain I know this is a regular occurrence but it seems to be stepping up in the last days]

It's the same old problem that sometimes/for years the MSM were completely disinterested in incursions or anything close to the same but legal...(e.g close to but not actually in Territorial limits)

Obviously it's impossible to know whether it's stepping up or not without seeing the raw, redacted data.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 24/05/2025 12:28

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia will be ready to hand over to Ukraine a draft document on a peaceful settlement by the end of the week, said Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
He noted that the handover could take place after the prisoner exchange is completed. The second and third stages of the exchange are scheduled for May 24 and 25.

❗️Kyiv experienced its most massive attack in recent months overnight. The city was targeted by both drones and ballistic missiles. The strike caused multiple fires and resulted in casualties. Rescue operations are still underway, and the full extent of the damage is yet to be determined.

❗️We are bringing our people home. The first stage of the β€œ1000 for 1000” exchange agreement has been carried out. Today – 390 people. We expect the process to continue on Saturday and Sunday, β€” President Zelenskyy.
https://t.me/United24media/31801

Azot chemical plant attacked in Novomoskovsk, Tula region
Russian media reported that the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region, was attacked on the night of May 24.
According to the company’s website, Novomoskovsk Joint-Stock Company Azot is the largest domestic producer of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers and one of the industry leaders in both product types and volume.

Italy fully supports the EU’s efforts to end Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, Italian Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto-Frattin said, according to Reuters.
He noted that Italy imported only small volumes of Russian gas last year, primarily intended for Austria, and emphasized that the country is now independent of Russian supplies.

In the first quarter of 2025, Russian shipping giant Sovcomflot reported a net loss of $393 million.
The company attributed the drop in performance to Western sanctions, which disrupted fleet management, caused vessel downtime, and sharply reduced profits.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the idea of holding Ukraine-Russia negotiations in the Vatican, calling it β€œa bit inelegant.”
He pointed out that talks between β€œtwo Orthodox countries” on a β€œCatholic platform” would likely be β€œnot very comfortable” for the Vatican itself.

Ukraine has launched the production of a new strike drone called β€œBatiar,” according to Militarnyy.
β–ͺ️ The drone visually resembles the Shahed, but its design and aerodynamics are entirely Ukrainian, developed using Western documentation.
β–ͺ️ It has a flight range of over 800 km and carries a warhead of up to 18 kg.
β–ͺ️ β€œBatyar” can function as a kamikaze drone, a decoy, or a bomber.
β–ͺ️ It is launched from a catapult or vehicle and does not require a special platform.
β–ͺ️ The drone is resistant to damage and can maintain its course when diving toward a target.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 57
Ukraine Invasion: Part 57
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 24/05/2025 12:31

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The EU will introduce (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/53207) a temporary trade policy with Ukraine starting June 6, replacing the expiring duty-free regime (Autonomous Trade Measures). Talks to modernize the 2016 trade deal are ongoing, with hopes for a long-term fix by July.

Ukraine deploys record numbers of drones against Russian arms factories, (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/53244) airports and energy facilities that also killed mobile internet for dozens of Russian cities and towns and stranded tens of thousands of air travelers.

After the USSR fell, Russia was supposed to be free. Instead, it became a mafia state. From fake reforms to real repression, the truth is darker than you think.
Full breakdown with David Satter.
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/53240

Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on sleeping civilians in Kyiv overnight. Fires erupted across several districts of Ukraine’s capital. At least 8 civilians have been injured.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 57
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 24/05/2025 12:34

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί OrbΓ‘n justifies media crackdown law with β€œUkrainian espionage”
The Hungarian Prime Minister linked the adoption of a draft law restricting the activities of NGOs to what he called β€œactive espionage activities by Ukraine.”
β€œIn Hungary, there is a pro-war and pro-Ukrainian propaganda network, but we have taken the necessary measures,” he said, adding that β€œthe work is not over yet.”

Kyiv in flames. Haunting footage of Russia’s overnight attack on the capital

Ukraine Invasion: Part 57
Ukraine Invasion: Part 57
Ukraine Invasion: Part 57
PerkingFaintly · 24/05/2025 14:01

DuncinToffee · 24/05/2025 10:36

British security officials are investigating whether Russia may be involved in three arson attacks on properties connected to Sir Keir Starmer, according to senior Whitehall figures. https://www.ft.com/content/0fb7a268-1bf6-4faf-ac60-67c53ddf1e62

No surprise the security services are considering it. I've been meaning to post about this.

Once I saw the details of those attacks, I wondered whether it was another example of what we were talking about on a previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5300219-ukraine-invasion-part-56?page=12&reply=143404989

We discussed 'the Russian practice of recruiting criminals or other outcasts within Germany is so widespread that they have compared it to a β€œgig economy” for β€œsabotage and terror”.'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/03/23/germany-fears-russia-behind-asylum-seeker-terror-attacks/

and also the Russian practice of blackmailing families of Ukrainian POWs to do violence, primarily to destabilise society rather than for immediate military gain:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9w5jyd9nnwo

These attacks seemed to fit the mould.

Although someone's been arrested on the grounds of "arson with intent to endanger life", IIUC it was an molotov cocktail on the external stone front steps of the house Starmer moved out of last year. If you were genuinely trying to hurt someone, you'd lob it through a window or go for the old and deadly favourite of pouring petrol through the letterbox.

Another of the attacks was on an address Starmer hasn't lived in since the 1990s. And the third was on a parked car which had previously been owned by Starmer, but was sold to one of his neighbours last year.

They're really odd targets - particularly the car.

How would an attacker know a car had been Starmer's, but also not know it was no longer Starmer's?

Someone is using intelligence, but out-of-date intelligence.

Page 12 | Ukraine Invasion: Part 56 | Mumsnet

The (free) world has gone mad. Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ *** Agreed thread guidance: A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of informa...

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5300219-ukraine-invasion-part-56?page=12&reply=143404989

blueshoes · 24/05/2025 19:06

@DuncinToffee The first thing I wondered about was Russian-led sabotage when I read of the attacks and that one of the suspects was Ukrainian.

Thanks for putting that information together. It does seems like right out of the Russian playbook.

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