Ukraine Invasion: Part 57

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 57. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Not a pin dropping, @Tacocatgoatcheesepizza

at least in the public domain.

Hopefully Boeing's lobbyists are trying to rattle some cages in Washington.

Though they've got other problems at the moment.

It's not something I'd expect a big outcry about. They're in a war zone and are a military contractor.

Not directly Ukraine related, but this affects the global balance of power.

A Battered Iran Signals It Wants to De-Escalate Hostilities With Israel and Negotiate - Messages passed by Tehran through intermediaries seek a return to talks if the U.S. stays out of the fight

They have been taking a terrible drubbing from the Israelis. The regime must be genuinely afraid of being deposed.

The Israelis may not be immediately amenable to stopping.

I just don’t know how to read the situation at all.

If I had to guess, and @notimagain likely has some views on this, I'd say that the USAF openly sending refueling tankers to the region suggested to the Iranians that the U.S. was about to get directly involved, which would have been catastrophic for the Iranians.

So now they're looking to limit their losses by stopping the hostilities. Does that mean that they're ready to give up their nuclear arms programs? I doubt it. I think they just want the pain to stop.

That makes sense I suppose. Do you think it’s likely the US will get involved? I’m so conscious of Trump’s (and others’) single cell brain and inability to focus on this and Ukraine all at once.

I think this significantly lowers the likelihood of the US getting involved. Trump does not want to get involved in a shooting war. He's already taking flak from some of his base for providing defensive and logistical support to Israel.

Agree.

Looks like the tankers dispersed to various airfields, mainly around Europe,.once they had crossed the Atlantic.

Won't some limited assistance by the US allow the complete destruction (or near to it as possible) of the Iranian nuclear program. To be able to live in a world without a nuclear weapon being in the hands of an Islamist terror supporting state would make the world breath easier.

We see with Russia how the possession of nuclear weapons limits options for retaliation so I am of the opinion something decisive military might be an option. (for world safety). May be wrong though.

Might have taken Top Gun maverick a bit too seriously.

Thanks for confirming their arrival on your side of the pond.

I've just heard a defense pundit on a WSJ podcast say that the Israelis could drop a GBU 57 MOP (aka bunker buster bomb) out the back of an AC-130 cargo plane, which they do have, and that the US may be supplying this munition. That would allow them to take out the Fordow enrichment site without direct US involvement.

I can’t take Tom Cruise seriously under any circumstances. 😂

@mids2019 bloody hell busting an unauthorised uranium enrichment facility out of an underground bunker at the end of a canyon in a rogue country IS the premise of Top Gun: Maverick. No wonder it sounded familiar. However, there was air defence and SAMs in the movie.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-16-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine and Russia conducted an exchange that included the bodies of soldiers killed in action (KIA) on June 16 in accordance with agreements reached during talks in Istanbul on June 2.
• Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) reported that the Kremlin is spreading narratives about the POW and KIA exchanges in order to sow panic in Ukraine and discredit Ukraine in the international community – in line with ISW’s recent assessments.
• Russia’s consumption of its Soviet-era tank stores appears to be slowing, possibly due to Russia's increasing transition to using motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) on the battlefield.
• Russia continues to set conditions to pose a long-term strategic threat to the United States and its Western allies even after the end to Russia's war in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and in Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka.

Certainly doubt they'll give up their nuclear programme that easily but yeah, the US getting involved must have been enough to scare them out of this conflict at least.

Got your US planes in Finland at the moment, we're hosting Trident exercises and they're doing the hot refueling (which strikes me as a rather a dangerous thing) at the airbase I work next door to. Everyone I work with seems to be able to recognise the different planes by the noise alone and I don't know how they do it.

@Natsku

They're doing the hot refueling (which strikes me as a rather a dangerous thing)

In a way it's only like air to air refueling without the air to air bit.

The ground crew are at most risk, working near running engines.

Yeah that's the dangerous part I mean - I wouldn't like to be ground crew doing that! I wasn't keen on even normal refueling after how much my teachers went on about the risks of static electricity causing sparks and setting everything on fire. I stood at safe distance away!

FWIW jet fuel is funny stuff, as a bulk liquid it's actually not that flammable (demos available on Youtube), however in vapour or aerosol form it's a different matter.

For that reason pre ground refuelling a big deal is made of electrically bonding aircraft and whatever is pumping the fuel..

15 dead, 144 injured in Kyiv as fascist Russia attacks Ukrainian capital overnight. Damage reported in 12 locations across city. Air force says Russia launched 472 aerial weapons overnight, including ones with anti-personnel cluster munition warheads.

https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-hit-by-russian-drones-and-ballistic-missiles-over-a-dozen-injured/

🕯Tomorrow in Kyiv has been declared a Day of Mourning in memory of the victims of the massive enemy attack on the capital.

My heart goes out to Ukraine, awful attacks and they must feel so ignored and abandoned because they aren’t the current sexy subject.

The gaseous form is much more flammable because it has so much more oxygen available to it. Jet fuel is primarily kerosene, which is much less volatile than something like gasoline, so there's less vapor to ignite.

Fuel air explosive munitions work on the same principle of mixing air/oxygen with a highly flammable liquid. All explosives, even dry ones like TNT or gunpowder, release energy by very rapid combustion.

And good morning to you all. 😀

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Ukraine war latest: Russia ramps up its summer offensive in several directions, seeks to encircle Kostiantynivka (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-90/)
Russian forces have intensified offensive operations across multiple front-line areas, said Victor Tregubov, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Khortytsia group of forces, on June 16.

⚡️Trump to depart G7 summit (kyivindependent.com/trump-to-depart-g7-summit-ahead-of-june-17-meeting-with-zelensky/) ahead of June 17 meeting with Zelensky.
U.S. President Donald Trump is set to depart the G7 Leaders' Summit late on June 16, ahead of an anticipated high-stakes meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 17.

⚡️US cancels (kyivindependent.com/us-cancels-talks-with-russia-on-restoring-diplomatic-relations-moscow-claims/) talks with Russia on restoring diplomatic relations, Moscow claims.
According to Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, the upcoming round was intended to "eliminate irritants" and help normalize the operations of both nations' diplomatic missions.

⚡️Shoigu visits (kyivindependent.com/shoigu-visits-north-korea-with-putins-special-assignment/) North Korea on 'special assignment' from Putin.
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu is expected to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during the visit.

⚡️ Iran claims new ballistic missile tactic (kyivindependent.com/iran-claims-breach-of-israeli-air-defenses-with-new-missile-tactic/) allowed breach of Israeli air defenses.
Iranian missiles were guided in a way that caused Israeli interceptor missiles to target each other, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed.

⚡️Canada reportedly set to announce new military aid (kyivindependent.com/canada-reportedly-set-to-announce-new-military-aid-for-ukraine-at-g7/) for Ukraine at G7.

⚡️Ukraine moves forward on lithium mining (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-moves-forward-on-lithium-mining-under-us-minerals-deal-nyt-reports/) under US minerals deal, NYT reports.
On June 16, the Ukrainian government reportedly agreed to begin drafting recommendations for a bidding process to develop the Dobra lithium field in central Ukraine.

⚡️Russian military-industrial chemical (kyivindependent.com/russian-military-industrial-chemical-plant-halts-operations-after-ukrainian-drone-strike/) plant halts operations after Ukrainian drone strike.
The Nevinnomyssk Azot chemical plant — a key supplier to the Kremlin's military-industrial complex — has suspended production following Ukrainian drone strikes, Russian independent media reported on June 16.

Zelensky and his Austrian counterpart Alexander Van der Bellen signed documents on bilateral cooperation between the two countries during Zelensky’s visit to Vienna on June 16.
Zelensky said that agreements signed in Austria cover agriculture, reconstruction, and the return of abducted Ukrainian children from Russia. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-visits-austria-signs-deals-with-president-van-der-bellen/

⚡️ Ukraine receives (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-1-245-bodies-of-fallen-soldiers-citizens-concluding-istanbul-repatriation-deal/) 1,245 bodies of fallen soldiers and citizens, concluding Istanbul repatriation deal.

⚡️Russia hands over (kyivindependent.com/russia-hands-over-bodies-of-its-military-along-with-those-of-fallen-ukrainians-soldiers-during-recent-repatriations/) bodies of its own soldiers in recent exchange, Kyiv says.
"This could have been done by the Russians on purpose to increase the number of bodies transferred and to load our (forensic) experts with work, adding to all this cynical information pressure. Or it could be their usual negligent attitude toward their own people. In any case, we also identify these bodies," Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said.

⚡️ Zelensky's trust rating (kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-approval-drops-11-points/) drops 11 points to 65%, poll shows.
The survey found that 65% of Ukrainians currently trust the president, while 30% do not, yielding a trust balance of +35%, the lowest recorded since March.

Investing in wartime Ukraine requires ‘nuanced understanding of risk’ but is worth it, says head of world’s largest business organization (kyivindependent.com/investing-in-wartime-ukraine-requires-nuanced-understanding-of-risk-but-is-worth-it-says-head-of-worlds-largest-business-organization/)
In a sit-down interview at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) on June 12, John Denton told the Kyiv Independent how the International Chamber of Commerce has supported businesses in Ukraine, how investors can mitigate risks, and why doing business in Ukraine is worth it despite the wartime challenges.

Hungary’s soft power meets Ukraine’s hard reality in Zakarpattia (kyivindependent.com/spies-migration-and-war-ukraines-hungarians-in-a-transforming-borderland/)
Living on Ukraine's western border, the Hungarians of Zakarpattia — a region also known as Transcarpathia — have shared this land for centuries with Ukrainians, Romanians, and others, forming a unique and multifaceted community.

⚡️UPDATE: 'A brutal strike' — Massive Russian missile and drone attack hits (kyivindependent.com/kyiv-hit-by-russian-drones-and-ballistic-missiles-over-a-dozen-injured/) Kyiv, killing 15, injuring at least 114.

⚡️Cluster munitions used (kyivindependent.com/prohibited-cluster-munitions-used-in-overnight-russian-strike-kyiv-mayor-says/) in overnight Russian strike on Ukraine, Kyiv mayor says.
"On the capital's Nyvky neighborhood, emergency workers are now finding these kinds of cluster munition parts," Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a statement.

⚡️Russian drone strike on Odesa (kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-strike-on-odesa-injures-13-including-1-child/) injures 13, including 1 child.