Ukraine Invasion: Part 56

[MagicFox]

The (free) world has gone mad. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

*

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Seems the Russian academic stuffed up the customs paper work and Border escalated things:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/27/russian-scientist-harvard-medical-school-ice-detention

The Trump administration reversed its decision to terminate a U.S. initiative that documented alleged Russian war crimes on Thursday following reporting by The Washington Post and other media outlets, according to U.S. officials and congressional aides familiar with the matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/03/27/trump-ukraine-russia-child-abductions/

Yes. On the face of it this is a 'would you mind bringing back a box of frog embryo samples with cold packs from your trip to France?' rather than 'it will be a breeze bringing this suitcase of heroin from Colombia to London'.

Given the border situation with the USA this is an unwise thing to be doing, paperwork or not. Leonid Peshkin, her Moscow born maths-AI-bio Harvard supervisor is a first degree idiot for asking her to do this.

Countries like the UK, Germany and Canada have upped their travel advisories to the USA because you are at a greater risk of refused entry, incarceration, being disappeared to Panama or whatever.

Travelling back into the USA if you are a Russian exile is unsafe. Carrying frog embryos is way too risky.

ICE is an entity that has clearly overstepped over the years. It is a Bush Jnr creation. Formed in 2003 it is part of the Great Kneejerk War response, for partly understandable reasons, but has clearly drifted... through Obama, Trump, Biden and now Trump 2.

Thank heavens. I hope they don't strangle it by other means, but at least this is something.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russia preparing for new spring offensive (kyivindependent.com/russia-prepares-for-new-spring-offensive-in-sumy-and-kharkiv-zelensky-says/) in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, Zelensky says.

⚡️ Russia intensifies assault in Zaporizhzhia (kyivindependent.com/russia-intensifies-assault-in-zaporizhzhia-increasing-pressure-on-ukraines-southern-positions-military-says/), increasing pressure on Ukraine's southern positions, military says.
"The Russians want to get as much of a head start or advance as much as possible," spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn said.

⚡️Ukraine, Russia haven't attacked energy facilities (kyivindependent.com/no-strikes-on-ukrainian-russian-facilities-recorded-since-march-25-ceasefire-mfa-says/) since March 25 ceasefire, Foreign Ministry confirms.
"I can confirm that since this date, March 25... There have been no attacks on energy objects. Neither Russian attacks on our energy objects, or our attacks on Russian energy objects," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi told the Kyiv Independent at a press briefing.

but

⚡️'Should be reaction from US' — Russian attack on Kherson breaks (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-energy/) energy ceasefire terms, Zelensky says.

⚡️Ukraine believes Black Sea ceasefire (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-believes-black-sea-ceasefire-is-in-effect/) is in effect, Foreign Ministry says.
Kyiv understands that the Black Sea ceasefire applies to civilian shipping and Ukrainian ports, and does not apply to Russian warships, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said.

⚡️Trump serious about his Greenland (kyivindependent.com/trump-serious-about-greenland-ambitions-putin-says/) ambitions, Putin says.
"This may only at first glance surprise some. It is a big mistake to believe that this is some extravagant talks by the new U.S. administration," Russian President Vladimir Putin said. [bet the idea to take over Greenland came from Putin in the first place]

⚡️ North Korea sent 3,000 more troops (kyivindependent.com/north-korea-sent-3-000-more-troops-to-russia-to-offset-ukraine-war-losses-south-korea-says/) to Russia to offset Ukraine war losses, South Korea says.
Pyongyang has also reportedly supplied Moscow with more short-range ballistic missiles, 170 mm self-propelled howitzers, and 240 mm multiple rocket launchers.

⚡️‘With or without the US’ — France, UK harden line (kyivindependent.com/plans-for-european-reassurance-force-in-ukraine-gain-traction-as-coalition-of-the-willing-meets-in-paris/) over Ukraine after ‘Coalition of the Willing’ summit.

⚡️ Leaders from 31 countries gather for Paris summit (kyivindependent.com/leaders-from-31-countries-gather-in-paris-to-strengthen-support-for-ukraine-discuss-peace/) to strengthen support for Ukraine, discuss peace.

As Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance, ‘Soviet’ command culture damages war effort

• (kyivindependent.com/as-ukraines-fate-hangs-in-the-balance-soviet-command-culture-damages-war-effort/)* In the opinion of commanders and experts alike, systemic internal problems inside Ukraine’s military leadership consistently lead to more casualties and lost territory than necessary.

⚡️Germany considering (kyivindependent.com/germany-considering-participating-in-ukraine-peacekeeping-force/) participating in Ukraine peacekeeping force.

⚡️ Russia suffered over 55,000 casualties (kyivindependent.com/russia-suffered-over-55-000-casualties-in-kursk-oblast-since-ukraines-operation-began-syrskyi-says/) during Kursk Oblast operation, Syrskyi says.
In the past seven and a half months, Russian losses have reportedly included 22,200 killed in action and 31,800 wounded.

⚡️ 69% of Ukrainians have trust (kyivindependent.com/69-of-ukrainians-have-confidence-in-president-zelensky-poll-finds/) in President Zelensky, poll finds.

⚡️EU unveils new sanctions (kyivindependent.com/eu-unveils-new-sanctions-against-belarus-in-response-to-presidential-elections/) against Belarus in response to presidential elections.

⚡️ North Korea has new AI suicide drone (kyivindependent.com/north-korea-has-new-ai-suicide-drone-early-warning-system-state-media-claims/), early-warning system, state media claims.
The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Kim Jong Un personally inspected them and provided guidance to military officials.

⚡️USAGM withdraws (kyivindependent.com/usagm-withdraws-termination-of-rfe-rl-grant-funding-back-in-effect/) termination of RFE/RL grant, funding back in effect.
The U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) has reversed its decision to terminate grant funding for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) for the fiscal year 2025, RFE/RL reported on March 27.

⚡️Parliament passes (kyivindependent.com/parliament-passes-bill-enhancing-ukraines-cybersecurity-defense-strategy/) bill enhancing Ukraine’s cybersecurity defense strategy.

⚡️ Ukrainian Railways partially renews (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-railways-partially-renews-online-sales-after-cyberattack/) online sales after cyberattack.

⚡️Putin attends (kyivindependent.com/putin-attends-launch-ceremony-of-new-russian-nuclear-powered-submarine/) launch ceremony of new Russian nuclear-powered submarine.

⚡️ US funding for abducted Ukrainian children (kyivindependent.com/us-to-provide-short-term-funding-for-abducted-ukrainian-children-program-after-suspension/) program restored temporarily, White House still terminating initiative.
At least 19,500 Ukrainian children have been confirmed as abducted by Russia, with only about 1,200 returned.

⚡️Introducing temporary government in Ukraine should be discussed, Putin claims (https://kyivindependent.com/introducing-temporary-government-in-ukraine-should-be-discussed-putin-says/).

⚡️ White House dismisses Putin's proposal (kyivindependent.com/white-house-rejects-putins-proposal-for-temporary-government-in-ukraine/) for temporary government in Ukraine.

'Trump looks at Putin as a friend' — Expert negotiator dissects Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks (kyivindependent.com/trump-looks-at-putin-as-a-friend-expert-negotiator-dissects-ukraine-russia-ceasefire-talks/)
The Kyiv Independent sat down with Marty Latz, an expert negotiator who has spent decades examining the techniques Trump has used to make deals, and the author of 'The Real Trump Deal: An Eye-Opening Look at How He Really Negotiates.'

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬

⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA - MAR 28, 2025
200+ engagements, top 10 casualties & record high equipment losses
■ Record high landbased equipment, vehicle & artillery losses as well
■ Most 🇺🇦 strikes in over two months but 🇷🇺 ones well above average as well

Very high losses yesterday presumably from the Russian assault in Zaporizhzhia

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Europe will be represented at the negotiating table on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war by France and Germany, which reflects the common position of all leaders, President Zelenskyy stated.

"We are very clear that the sanctions will not be lifted, no matter what new excuses Russia seeks. We want Ukraine to have a strong army even in peacetime to prevent any future Russian attacks," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a press conference following the "Coalition of the Willing" summit in Paris.

“The US believes that silence at sea and in the energy sector works. Today, Russian artillery damaged the energy infrastructure in Kherson. This is how it works,” President Zelenskyy said.
“We clearly understand where the shots were fired and what was destroyed and lost. We will document everything and transfer it to the US. After that, we expect their reaction—they assured us they would respond to any violations.

❗️In the evening, the Russian army attacked Poltava with drones, causing power outages in several neighborhoods of the city.

❗️The Russian Federation shelled Naftogaz Group facilities, damaging gas production infrastructure.
No casualties were reported. Specialists are already working to mitigate the consequences and assess the damage.
This marks the 18th combined attack on Naftogaz Group infrastructure since the start of the full-scale war and the eighth since the beginning of this year.

Bulgaria is ready to host a Black Sea ceasefire monitoring center, The Guardian reports.
Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov made this proposal at the “Coalition of the Willing” summit in Paris, suggesting the creation and deployment of a multinational monitoring center.
Zhelyazkov also emphasized that Bulgaria is committed to supporting Ukraine within the framework of a future security system.

A delegation of British and French military personnel will visit Ukraine to help develop the format of its future army, Macron announced.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated that Armenia must choose between the EU and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) following the adoption of a law initiating Armenia’s EU accession process.

The DPRK has unveiled a new attack drone, the Saetbyol-4 (Morning Star-4), which resembles the American RQ-4B Global Hawk.
Additionally, Kong Jong-eui inspected the newly developed North Korean airborne early warning and control aircraft, modeled after the Russian A-50 and based on the Il-76 transport aircraft.
It appears that the DPRK is acquiring new technologies from the Russian Federation in exchange for resources, including manpower and weapons.

Other statements following the summit of the "Coalition of the willing":
The next meeting of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine (the "Ramstein" format) will be held on April 11, chaired by Britain.
Starmer noted that if the scenario of deploying British troops in Ukraine arises, the issue could be put to a vote in parliament.
Finnish President Stubb stated that during the meeting in Paris, he witnessed a "very united and determined" Europe and emphasized that lifting sanctions on Russia is not under consideration.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russia’s Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of a HIMARS strike on the Sudzha gas station in Russia’s Kursk region, claiming it was “virtually destroyed” and violated Trump’s proposed energy ceasefire. https://t.me/Kyivpost_official/28871

France urges China to help bring Russia to come to the negotiating table with “serious and good-faith proposals” on Ukraine, saying Beijing’s influence could support a just and lasting peace.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/49711

Brussels urges citizens to stockpile a 72-hour emergency supply of food, water, and medicine as part of its new crisis preparedness strategy.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/49755

Wartime Ukraine says Signal is a fine messaging platform if you know how to use it and that Matt Waltz’s bomb-the-Houthis chat group was a bunch of noobies.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/49707

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Russia is preparing for a spring offensive targeting Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
According to Zelensky, this offensive was initially planned eight months ago but was disrupted by Ukraine’s operations in the Kursk region.
At a briefing on March 19, Zelensky said that Russia’s objective is to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk direction entirely, then launch attacks toward Sumy, followed by force movements toward Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that there is still no final version of the agreement on critical minerals.
“The terms keep changing. At one point, we agreed there would be a framework agreement first, followed by a full one. Now the U.S. is proposing to go straight to a comprehensive deal. Ukrainian and U.S. teams are working on it and reviewing the new terms,” the president said.

"Insider reports" have emerged about a new U.S.-Ukraine rare earth minerals deal. A Ukrainian MP has criticized the new document.
Translation: WarTranslated

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has authorized 1,400 weapons samples for use in 2024. 75% of them are Ukrainian-made.
The defense industry will become one of the most important in the Ukrainian economy, and Ukraine will become a critical world-class arms manufacturer.

🇺🇸The United States has reversed its decision to terminate the Conflict Observatory initiative, which has been monitoring the mass deportation of Ukrainian children, The Washington Post reports.
Conflict Observatory has tracked the deportations using satellite imagery, biometric data, and other digital tools — providing crucial evidence, including to the International Criminal Court.
This policy reversal is temporary. The initiative will continue operating for another six weeks before transferring its data to Europol.

Ukraine Downs 89 of 163 Russian Drones in Overnight Attack
An additional 51 decoy drones failed to reach their targets and were lost in flight without causing damage.
The attack affected multiple regions across the country, including Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipro, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia.

does anybody have the Hoover institute’s Goodfellows podcast on their podcast list? I’ve noticed a real tendency in the last few months to avoid criticism of the trump administration and a lot of generous “benefit of the doubt” discussions. Felt this was especially clear in the latest release after the Signal leak.

I’ve noticed this on quite a few US based podcasts. For example the TRIP US episodes recently have actually had me rolling my eyes slightly.

By contrast the DSR network is as scathing as ever which I appreciate.

Ah yes DSR never disappoints!

On the accident in Lithuania, they are still trying to get to the vehicle; the problem seems to be the underground; if they just send in people, these could be in danger of drowning, too. An article says the tank weighs 63tons and would sink very quickly in this area.

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2523691/missing-us-troops-in-pabrade-deep-silt-and-rising-water-complicate-search

Here is a background article about what kind of vehicle it is versus the surrounding area:
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2523768/m88-what-kind-of-vehicle-is-it-and-how-could-it-sink

Besides worrying about the soldiers, like @heldinadream I also worry that this will be used as a thing to blame Europeans with and retaliate. The presence of foreign troops, not only US troops, in the Baltics has been an ongoing NATO operation for many years.
They purposely rotate, so as not to trigger the "permanent foreign troops" "argument" for Russia, but the military bases / infrastructure in the Baltic countries themselves are permanent.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte:

"If anyone were to miscalculate&think they can get away with an attack on Poland or on any other Ally,they will be met with the full force of this fierce NATO.Reaction will be devastating.This has to be clear toVladimir Putin,& anyone else who wants to attack us."

https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3llgw2ganm227

Thanks for posting this. I looked online for news this morning, and found very little as detailed as this.

At some point, divers will have to enter the water to determine the orientation of the ARV and attach steel cables to it so that it can be winched out. The crew are very likely inside and would have run out of air some time ago if the hatches were closed. If it sank with the hatches open, they probably drowned inside the vehicle.

The next of kin will have been notified by now of the recovery operation.

I was surprised to learn that it was operating alone when it disappeared. That's rather unusual, but does explain why it was so hard to locate.

@MissConductUS
LRT is the Lithuanian state broadcaster, like BBC. Luckily they offer news in several languages. Sometimes it's quicker to find something with looking for the national newspapers / broadcasters first, that's why I tried that (posted yesterday in the other thread discussing the topic)

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5297058-trumpmusk-the-doge-and-pony-show-continues-trump-thread-140?page=7&reply=143159909

I agree, unfortunately it does not look good for the soliders. In the news from yesterday on LRT they said the US troops were searching the area for anyone on foot, but had not located anyone yet.

Re: Hoover institute’s Goodfellows podcast etc.

I see material from a number of USA think tanks, geopol, global risk etc. outlets. They are all trimming what they might say to some extent.

Democracy in action, eh!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-28-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is reintensifying efforts to portray the current Ukrainian government as illegitimate and unable to engage in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
• Putin reiterated his demand for the elimination of the "root causes" of the war in Ukraine as a precondition for a peace agreement -- a reference to Russia’s initial war demands that directly contradict US, European, and Ukrainian efforts to achieve a just and sustainable resolution to the war.
• Putin is attempting to inject a new demand aligned with the Kremlin's long-standing efforts to undermine the Ukrainian government's legitimacy into discussions about the resolution of the war.
• The Kremlin appears to be renewing efforts to reorganize Russia's five naval infantry brigades into divisions.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast, near Toretsk and Kurakhove, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russia plans to expand its nuclear submarine fleet.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Germany considering (kyivindependent.com/germany-considering-participating-in-ukraine-peacekeeping-force/) participating in Ukraine peacekeeping force. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said: "I can't imagine any situation in which Germany would not be participating in whatever would be the result of negotiations of a ceasefire or even a peace," Pistorius said.

⚡️U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) withdraws (kyivindependent.com/usagm-withdraws-termination-of-rfe-rl-grant-funding-back-in-effect/) termination of RFE/RL grant, funding back in effect.

⚡️Parliament passes (kyivindependent.com/parliament-passes-bill-enhancing-ukraines-cybersecurity-defense-strategy/) bill enhancing Ukraine’s cybersecurity defense strategy.

⚡️Putin attends (kyivindependent.com/putin-attends-launch-ceremony-of-new-russian-nuclear-powered-submarine/) launch ceremony of new Russian nuclear-powered submarine named Perm. The submarine is the first of its kind to be equipped with hypersonic Zircon missiles as a standard feature.

⚡️ White House dismisses Putin's proposal (kyivindependent.com/white-house-rejects-putins-proposal-for-temporary-government-in-ukraine/) for temporary government in Ukraine. Putin suggested a transitional administration, overseen by the U.N. and several countries, could be formed in Ukraine to organize elections.

⚡️ Higher-level ceasefire talks with Russia premature (kyivindependent.com/high-level-us-russia-talks-premature-as-response-to-ukraine-peace-efforts-is-reviewed-rubio-says/), Rubio says, as US reviews Moscow's stance. "I think you have to make more progress on a technical level," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.

⚡️ 4 killed, 22 injured in Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/4-killed-22-injured-in-russian-attacks-against-ukraine-over-past-day/) against Ukraine over past day. Russia launched 163 drones overnight, including Shahed-type attack drones, according to Ukraine's military.

⚡️ Russia offers Elon Musk a nuclear plant (kyivindependent.com/russia-may-offer-small-nuclear-plant-for-musks-mars-mission-official-says/) for Mars mission.

⚡️ Norway allocates $285.6 million (kyivindependent.com/norway-allocates-285-6-million-for-humanitarian-support-to-ukraine/) for humanitarian support to Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukraine retrieves bodies of 909 fallen soldiers (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-retrieves-bodies-of-909-fallen-soldiers/). These were soldiers who fought in the Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia directions.

⚡️US no longer funds program (kyivindependent.com/us-no-longer-funds-program/) tracking abducted Ukrainian children, Rubio says.
Rubio's statement came a day after the U.S. State Department announced that it would provide short-term funding to the initiative after the White House terminated the program.

⚡️ Russia makes excuses (kyivindependent.com/kremlin-warns-it-may-resume-energy-strikes-accuses-ukraine-of-ceasefire-breaches/) to break ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes.

⚡️EU preparing (kyivindependent.com/eu-preparing-17th-package-of-russian-sanctions-media-reports/) 17th package of Russia sanctions.

⚡️UK, French military officials to meet in Ukraine to discuss (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-hold-meeting-with-foreign-general-staff-teams-as-part-of/) troop deployment. Ukrainian, British and French general staff representatives will hold a meeting in Ukraine within a week to discuss the potential deployment of foreign troops to the country, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 28. The news came a day after a Paris summit where a number of European countries moved forward with plans to send soldiers to Ukraine as part of a "reassurance force" in case of a ceasefire with Russia.

Ukraine war latest: Russia intensifies assault in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, military says (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-69/)

⚡️Russia's gas production (kyivindependent.com/russias-gas-production-plummets-following-ukraines-transit-halt/) plummets following Ukraine's transit halt on Jan. 1 after the expiration of a 2019 transit agreement.

'89 hours of non-stop work' — Ukrainian Railways battle against a cyberattack by 'the enemy'
(kyivindependent.com/89-hours-of-non-stop-work-inside-ukrainian-railways-battle-against-a-cyberattack-by-the-enemy/)
When an "unprecedented" cyberattack hit the computer networks of Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) on March 23, the company's staff gave up any idea of getting a good night's sleep for the foreseeable future.

"Everyone is working around the clock. This is no joke," Anastasia Zolotaryova, Ukrzaliznytsia spokesperson told the Kyiv Independent on March 26, already spending her fourth day straight at Kyiv's main train station.

⚡️Ukraine won't sign minerals deal with US if it threatens (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-wont-sign-minerals-deal-with-us-if-it-threatens-eu-membership-zelensky-says/) EU membership, Zelensky says.
The Financial Times reported on March 27 that the latest version of the agreement proposed by the U.S. includes terms that would grant Washington unprecedented control over Ukraine's natural resources through a joint investment fund. Ukrainian online newspaper Yevropeiska Pravda reported that the deal may contradict Ukraine's EU accession due to severe restrictions that affect Ukraine's economic sovereignty.

⚡️Russia's attack on Dnipro kills 4, (kyivindependent.com/russias-attack-on-dnipto-kills-4-injures-15/) injures 19. Over 20 drones targeted the city late on March 28, though most were shot down, according to regional Governor Serhii Lysak.

⚡️State Department officially informs Congress of plans to dissolve USAID (kyivindependent.com/state-department-officially-informs-congress-of-plans-to-dissolve-usaid-cnn-reports/), CNN reports.

⚡️Ukraine formalizing agreements (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-formalizing-agreements-on-european-military-aid-intelligence-sharing-ahead-of-next-ramstein-summit-zelensky-says/) on European military aid, intelligence sharing ahead of next Ramstein summit, Zelensky says.

⚡️IMF approves (kyivindependent.com/imf-approves-400-million-in-funding-for-ukraine/) $400 million in funding for Ukraine.

⚡️Ukrainian forces push 3-4 km inside Belgorod region (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-push-3-4-km-inside-belgorod-region-reuters-reports/), Reuters reports. The Ukrainian operation appears to be aimed at diverting Russian forces as Moscow intensifies efforts to push Kyiv’s troops out of Kursk.

⚡️100,000 Russian soldiers killed (kyivindependent.com/100-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-identified-by-media-investigation/) in Ukraine identified by the BBC and the independent outlet Mediazona

⚡️ 4 killed, 36 injured in Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/attacks-137/) against Ukraine over past day. Russia launched 172 attack and decoy drones against Ukraine overnight, the Air Force reported. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 94 drones, while 69 disappeared from radars without causing damage, according to the statement.

⚡️ Ukraine strikes (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-destroys-russian-border-checkpoint-used-to-launch-drone-strikes/) Russian border checkpoint in Bryansk Oblast on March 27, destroying its military infrastructure and killing dozens of Russian troops to disrupt drone attacks. Ukraine has repeatedly recorded drone launches from the area of the Pogar checkpoint, and its destruction reduces Russia's ability to threaten Ukrainian forces in the Sumy and Kursk oblasts, according to the statement.

⚡️ Vance suggests energy ceasefire in effect while Ukraine accuses (kyivindependent.com/vance-says-energy-ceasefire-in-effect-while-ukraine-accuses-russia-of-violations/) Russia of violations. "We've obviously got this energy infrastructure ceasefire. We've got a Black Sea commercial ceasefire that I think is almost done," Vance told reporters during a visit to Greenland.

With peace talks underway, Ukrainian political veterans long out of power align themselves with Trump (kyivindependent.com/with-peace-talks-underway-ukrainian-opposition-aligns-with-trump/) emerging as a new source of pressure on Ukraine's political leadership.

⚡️ Russia preparing new offensive (kyivindependent.com/russia-preparing-new-offensive-in-coming-weeks-to-strengthen-negotiating-position-ap-reports/) in 'coming weeks' to strengthen negotiating position. The news comes after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Moscow is planning to attack the Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts this spring.

⚡️ Belarusian exiled opposition's chairwoman Melnikava reported missing (https://kyivindependent.com/belarusian-exiled-oppositions-chairwoman-missing-reported-missing/).

⚡️ US judge temporarily halts dismantling (kyivindependent.com/us-judge-temporarily-halts-dismantling-of-voice-of-america/) of Voice of America, preventing the firing of some 1,300 employees placed on leave earlier this month.

⚡️ Update: 8 injured in Kryvyi Rih (kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-strike-on-kryvyi-rih-injures-5/), 24 in Dnipro (kyivindependent.com/russias-attack-on-dnipto-kills-4-injures-15/) following Russian attacks.

⚡️ Amsterdam knife attacker (kyivindependent.com/amsterdam-knife-attacker-is-30-year-old-ukrainian-dutch-police-say/) is 30-year-old Ukrainian, Dutch police say. Five people were injured in the attack that took place on the evening of March 27 near the Dam Square. The assailant's motive is under investigation.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-29-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian and US officials continue to negotiate the terms of temporary ceasefires on Black Sea operations and energy infrastructure strikes, indicating the ceasefires are not yet fully codified.
• The Kremlin appears to be using the Black Sea ceasefire negotiations with the United States to test the extent to which Russia can extract concessions from the West, as the implementation of a maritime truce would not require any sanctions relief.
• European allies continue to provide financial and materiel support to Ukraine and agreed to expand intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
• Russian forces are reportedly poised to intensify offensive operations in several areas of the frontline in Spring and Summer 2025 in hopes of influencing ongoing ceasefire and peace negotiations.
• Russia continues to target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine amid reports of shifting and more deadly Russian strike tactics.
• Russian forces are reportedly employing more advanced long-range drones, complicating Ukrainian air defense operations and allowing more drones to penetrate Ukraine's air defense umbrella.
• Zelensky ordered Ukraine's Ministry of Defense (MoD) and General Staff to establish a new aviation chain of command within the Ukrainian General Staff and conduct widespread aviation management reform to strengthen Ukraine's air capabilities.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the launch of the "Indra Navy 2025" exercises in Chennai, India.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb played golf with US President Donald Trump yesterday during a surprise, unofficial trip to Florida that included discussions about Ukraine and icebreaker ships.

https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-finlands-stubb-boost-ties-over-golf/

The Finnish president, who met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier…is pitching himself to become a European envoy for Ukraine who would get a seat at the negotiating table. Stubb expressed skepticism about…Putin's intentions to actually agree and abide by a ceasefire.”

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights [mixed from the last two days, just home and a bit tired and lazy]

⚡️ Russia preparing new offensive (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-preparing-new-offensive-in-coming-weeks-to-strengthen-negotiating-position-ap-reports/) in 'coming weeks' to strengthen negotiating position, AP reports.

Ukraine war latest: Russia intensifies assault in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, military says (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-69/)

⚡️'We'll get Greenland,' (https://kyivindependent.com/well-get-greenland-trump-says-as-denmark-ramps-up-arctic-defense/) Trump says as Denmark ramps up Arctic defense.

⚡️ Russian negotiator suggests ceasefire (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-negotiator-suggests-ceasefire-may-not-be-reached-in-2025/) may not be reached in 2025.

⚡️UK, French military officials to meet in Ukraine to discuss (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-hold-meeting-with-foreign-general-staff-teams-as-part-of/) troop deployment.

⚡️Ukraine formalizing agreements (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-formalizing-agreements-on-european-military-aid-intelligence-sharing-ahead-of-next-ramstein-summit-zelensky-says/) on European military aid, intelligence sharing ahead of next Ramstein summit, Zelensky says.

⚡️ Russia claims to capture (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-to-capture-sumy-oblast-border-village/) Sumy Oblast border village.

⚡️EU preparing (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-preparing-17th-package-of-russian-sanctions-media-reports/) 17th package of Russia sanctions, EUobserver reports.

⚡️Ukrainian forces push 3-4 km inside Belgorod region (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-push-3-4-km-inside-belgorod-region-reuters-reports/), Reuters reports.
The Ukrainian operation appears to be aimed at diverting Russian forces as Moscow intensifies efforts to push Kyiv’s troops out of Kursk.

Ukraine will not sign a minerals deal with the U.S. if it threatens its accession to the European Union, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 28 https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-wont-sign-minerals-deal-with-us-if-it-threatens-eu-membership-zelensky-says/
The Financial Times reported on March 27 that the latest version of the agreement proposed by the U.S. includes terms that would grant Washington unprecedented control over Ukraine's natural resources through a joint investment fund. Ukrainian online newspaper Yevropeiska Pravda reported that the deal may contradict Ukraine's EU accession due to severe restrictions that affect Ukraine's economic sovereignty.

⚡️Ukraine to request changes to new minerals deal, (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-will-request-changes-to-new-minerals-deal-seeks-more-us-investment-bloomberg-reports/) Bloomberg reports.
Ukraine will be seeking for the U.S. to commit to more U.S. investment and clarify how a reconstruction fund would operate, a person familiar with the matter said.

With peace talks underway, Ukrainian political veterans align themselves with Trump (https://kyivindependent.com/with-peace-talks-underway-ukrainian-opposition-aligns-with-trump/)
Ukrainian political veterans long out of power have emerged as a new source of pressure on Ukraine's political leadership.

⚡️Finland's Stubb plays golf with Trump, (https://kyivindependent.com/finlands-stubb-plays-golf-with-trump-discusses-war-in-ukraine/) discusses war in Ukraine.
Following the "unofficial" visit, Trump announced he would buy Finnish icebreaker vessels — critical to U.S. efforts to expand its power in the Arctic.

⚡️ Vance suggests energy ceasefire in effect while Ukraine accuses (https://kyivindependent.com/vance-says-energy-ceasefire-in-effect-while-ukraine-accuses-russia-of-violations/) Russia of violations.

⚡️Russia's gas production (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-gas-production-plummets-following-ukraines-transit-halt/) plummets following Ukraine's transit halt, media reports.
The sharp decline is primarily attributed to Ukraine halting Russian gas transit through its territory on Jan. 1 after the expiration of a 2019 transit agreement.

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the disbursement of $400 million in funds for Ukraine via the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), the IMF announced on March 28. https://kyivindependent.com/imf-approves-400-million-in-funding-for-ukraine/

⚡️ Norway allocates $285.6 million (https://kyivindependent.com/norway-allocates-285-6-million-for-humanitarian-support-to-ukraine/) for humanitarian support to Ukraine.

⚡️Poland may reinstate mandatory military service (https://kyivindependent.com/poland-may-reinstate-mandatory-military-service-amid-growing-russian-threat/) amid growing Russian threat.

⚡️ Ukraine strikes (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-destroys-russian-border-checkpoint-used-to-launch-drone-strikes/) Russian border checkpoint to disrupt drone attacks.
Ukraine's Air Force struck the Pogar border checkpoint in Russia's Bryansk Oblast on March 27, destroying its military infrastructure and killing dozens of Russian troops, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported on March 28.

⚡️ Belarusian exiled opposition's chairwoman Melnikava reported missing (https://kyivindependent.com/belarusian-exiled-oppositions-chairwoman-missing-reported-missing/).
"We hope for the best, but we understand that representatives of Belarusian democratic forces remain priority targets of security services of the Belarusian and Russian regimes," the Belarusian Coordination Council said.

⚡️State Department officially informs Congress of plans to dissolve USAID (https://kyivindependent.com/state-department-officially-informs-congress-of-plans-to-dissolve-usaid-cnn-reports/), CNN reports.

⚡️Trump fires nearly all staff (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-fires-nearly-all-staff-at-us-peace-institute-wp-reports/) at US peace institute, WP reports.
The Trump administration dismissed between 200 and 300 employees at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) headquarters in Washington, D.C. on March 29, the Washington Post (WP) reported.
The institute plays an active role in mediating conflicts and assisting with peace negotiations in war-torn countries, including Ukraine.

⚡️ Russia offers Elon Musk a nuclear plant (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-may-offer-small-nuclear-plant-for-musks-mars-mission-official-says/) for Mars mission.

⚡️US no longer funds program (https://kyivindependent.com/us-no-longer-funds-program/) tracking abducted Ukrainian children, Rubio says.
Rubio's statement came a day after the U.S. State Department announced that it would provide short-term funding to the initiative after the White House terminated the program.

The Kyiv Independent, in partnership with UNESCO and with the support of Japan, is launching a hands-on consultancy program for three regional independent media organizations in Ukraine that were severely affected by the U.S. aid freeze.
After four days of hands-on work with media managers from the Kyiv Independent, each regional media will receive a small grant of up to $5,000 to implement the developed projects.

⚡️ Ukraine can produce 5 million (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-can-produce-5-million-drones-per-year-advisor-says/) FPV drones per year, advisor says.

⚡️ Ukraine retrieves bodies of 909 fallen soldiers (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-retrieves-bodies-of-909-fallen-soldiers/).
These were soldiers who fought in the Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia directions.

'89 hours of non-stop work' — Ukrainian Railways battle against a cyberattack by 'the enemy'

⚡️Ukrainian politician (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-lawmaker-found-dead-in-dnipropetrovsk-oblast/) shot dead in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, media report.
Multiple Ukrainian media outlets reported, citing law enforcement sources, that the deceased was Oleksandr Plakhotnik, a member of ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party and a former deputy mayor of Kamianske. According to the police, the man had a gunshot wound to the head.

⚡️100,000 Russian soldiers killed (https://kyivindependent.com/100-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-identified-by-media-investigation/) in Ukraine identified by media investigation.

⚡️ Amsterdam knife attacker (https://kyivindependent.com/amsterdam-knife-attacker-is-30-year-old-ukrainian-dutch-police-say/) is 30-year-old Ukrainian, Dutch police say.
Five people were injured in the attack that took place on the evening of March 27 near the Dam Square. The assailant's motive is under investigation. [There is considerable shock here about the attack]

8 injured in Kryvyi Rih (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-strike-on-kryvyi-rih-injures-5/), 24 in Dnipro (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-attack-on-dnipto-kills-4-injures-15/) following Russian attacks.

⚡️UPDATE: Russian drone attack on Kharkiv kills 2, injures 25, (https://kyivindependent.com/2-dead-several-injured-in-russian-drone-attack-on-kharkiv/) including children.

⚡️At least 2 killed, 26 injured (https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-report-at-least-2-killed-26-injured-in-latest-overnight-russian-drone-attack/) in latest overnight Russian drone attacks across Ukraine.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA - MAR 30, 2025
■ Engagements well above average, casualties slightly above it
■ Equipment losses below average; good tank losses however
■ Visually confirmed: 42 🇷🇺 16 🇺🇦 (2.6x) - 30-day ratio 1.0x ↔
■ Relatively few 🇺🇦 strikes

Your very hard work always much appreciated, @DucklingSwimmingInstructress

And thank you to the other round-up posters too. You make it all look like a well-oiled machine – belying the sheer quantity of hard work which goes into it.

I'm very grateful.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights (mixed from last two days)

Ukraine has achieved full alignment with the European Union’s foreign policy and defense strategies in 2025, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). The EU confirmed that Ukraine has met all its international obligations following the completion of legislative screening in early March. The next step in Ukraine’s European integration process is the opening of the “External Relations” negotiating cluster.

🇸🇪 Sweden will allocate over 7 million euros for Ukraine’s drone coalition and demining efforts.

Ceasefire Monitoring: The US will hold consultations with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and certain European countries to discuss monitoring the partial ceasefire.

Ukrainian Forces Destroy Dozen of Russian Tanks, Including T-90M, in One Blow Near Andriivka https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukrainian-forces-destroy-dozen-of-russian-tanks-including-t-90m-in-one-blow-near-andriivka-7152

🇫🇮 Finland proposes appointing a European envoy for Ukraine.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated that establishing a negotiating team, similar to the American one present at the Saudi Arabia meeting, is the first necessary step.

According to Spiegel, Europe’s military capabilities in a potential confrontation with Russia remain a topic of concern despite numerical advantages in some areas. A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) highlights key statistics comparing European NATO member states with Russia:
▫️ Active personnel: Russia has 1.1 million soldiers, while European NATO member states collectively have over two million.
▫️ Battle tanks: NATO holds a fleet of more than 6,700 tanks compared to Russia’s 2,900.
▫️ Fighter jets: NATO possesses 2,300 fighters, while Russia has 1,400.
🔹 Artillery: NATO’s European countries command over 15,400 guns, against Russia’s 6,090.
However, the situation becomes more uncertain if Türkiye, due to its close ties with Moscow, withholds NATO military assistance. Türkiye contributes a significant portion of NATO’s military assets, including:
• Nearly 25% of NATO’s soldiers,
• Over a third of its battle tanks,
• About 18% of its artillery.
Without Türkiye’s full participation, Europe’s resources in a military scenario would be notably weakened.

The European Union is preparing to reduce agricultural imports from Ukraine following a review of trade terms, according to EU Agriculture Commissioner Christoph Hansen. Speaking to AFP, Hansen explained that Brussels aims to negotiate a new trade agreement with Ukraine before the current temporary liberalization measures expire in June.

Russia has adopted a more insidious drone tactic against Ukraine, according to Bild military columnist Julian Röpke. Putin’s forces are deploying Shahed-136 kamikaze drones—known as Geran-2 in Russia—in a new, deadlier strategy aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian defenses and maximizing destruction. [....]
Now, the drones gather in the air near their intended targets and descend simultaneously from high altitudes. This coordinated assault overwhelms Ukrainian defenses, allowing more drones to penetrate and strike. The tactic has resulted in concentrated damage, with multiple explosions occurring within minutes, as seen in recent strikes on Odesa and Dnipro.
In response, Ukraine is reportedly developing countermeasures, though the specifics remain classified.

South Korean companies are exploring ways to return to the Russian market amid discussions to end the war in Ukraine, according to The Korea Times.
Large firms are accelerating feasibility studies on resuming operations in Russia, which remains a key market, especially given increasing U.S. customs pressure. With a population exceeding 140 million, Russia has been a major consumer of Korean products. Bilateral trade reached $29.9 billion in 2021, when Russia was South Korea’s 12th largest export market.
Among companies considering a return:
• LG Electronics has partially restarted operations at its Moscow factory to prevent the deterioration of idle production facilities.
• HD Hyundai Electric, which maintained business in Russia during the war,
• Hyundai Motor Group, i
• Samsung Electronics is reportedly considering resuming manufacturing in Russia. Its Kaluga plant, which produced 1 million TVs, monitors, and washing machines annually, halted operations in 2022.

“Ukraine is breaking into the AI revolution: we are already developing our own LLM. And this is just the beginning—we aim to be among the top three countries globally in implementing AI in government and business,” said Mykhailo Fedorov.
The large language model (LLM) will enable Ukraine to process data domestically, which is crucial for leveraging AI in defense, government, healthcare, and the financial sector.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russia has recently intensified attacks to improve its tactical positions ahead of the expected offensive — Ukrainian military commanders
www.kyivpost.com/post/49849

Ukraine does NOT recognize US military aid as loans — Zelensky
He revealed that Kyiv received a draft of a new agreement from the US regarding critical minerals, which is “completely different from the previous framework document.”
According to Zelensky, Ukraine will not consider the provided military aid as a loan.
“We are grateful for the support, but this is not a credit, and we will not allow it,” he added.

Ukraine plans to request changes to a new draft agreement with the US on mineral resources, asking for more American investments.
www.kyivpost.com/post/49855

A closed-door meeting will take place in Kyiv within the week, with countries “100% ready” to deploy a contingent to Ukraine — Zelensky

After top advisers to US President Donald Trump leaked their Yemen war plan to a journalist by mistake, the Pentagon chief is now rumored to have a Russian email account.
www.kyivpost.com/post/49786

Putin’s forces struck a hospital and residential buildings in Kharkiv. At least 2 people were killed. Rescue efforts are ongoing. [last night]
Russian drones struck a military hospital in Kharkiv, injuring several servicemembers who were receiving treatment there

Fighting for three years in various war zones, an infantry soldier in Ukraine’s Border Guard Service talked mental health, PTSD, and combat joys and losses with Kyiv Post.
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/49796