Ukraine Invasion: Part 56

[MagicFox]

The (free) world has gone mad. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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The Daily Mail is lying 😮

More seriously though their scaremongering is outrageous and dangerous.

that's not the first time they've misrepresented it, is it. Should have remembered.

MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦
‪@maks23.bsky.social‬
🇪🇺❌🇭🇺 Hungary’s veto on Ukraine decisions is no longer a roadblock. The EU will move forward with decisions supported by 26 countries, sidelining PM Orbán. Hungary are now ignored, - Politico

Sincerely hope this is true. Long past time if so. Now to suspend them, unless they return to genuine democracy and accountability.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20220909IPR40137/meps-hungary-can-no-longer-be-considered-a-full-democracy

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

*Ukraine may receive decommissioned British Puma helicopters, Defense Express reports.
The UK has retired its Puma HC.Mk transport helicopters, with up to 16 units available. The specialized publication notes that there is a possibility of their transfer to Ukraine. *

Those airframes will be getting on a bit but if Ukraine can make good use of them a transfer sounds like a sensible plan.

And in other interesting news, is it true that Macron has declared no more investment in the US while Trump is acting like this, @notimagain ?

That sounds a bit odd to me. Is Macron going to stop French companies from buying real estate or opening a factory in the US? How about French investors who want to buy shares in US companies?

Not sure much detail has been announced yet, can’t see French industry wanting to withdraw planned investments but the French state can be very, err persuasive at times….this from Reuters:

www.reuters.com/markets/frances-macron-calls-suspension-investment-us-after-tariffs-2025-04-03/

“The comments come weeks after French shipping firm CMA CGM announced plans to invest $20 billion in the U.S. to build shipping logistics and terminals, a plan that was hailed by President Trump at the time, and mentioned again in his Wednesday speech unveiling the tariffs.
French electrical equipment supplier Schneider Electric (SCHN.PA), opens new tab said late last month it would invest $700 million in the country to support U.S. energy infrastructure to power AI growth.
Neither company immediately responded to requests for comment on Macron's proposal.”

I can see French industry not wanting to annoy Macron, but for companies that already have projects underway or have made business commitments in the US, this is a hard minefield to navigate.

I had no idea that Schneider Electric was French. They are already very active in the US.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-3-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russia seeks to leverage ongoing ceasefire and future peace negotiations to seize large amounts of territory in Ukraine and install a pro-Russian puppet government in Kyiv but will likely continue military operations in Ukraine if the Kremlin is unable to achieve a full Ukrainian surrender through diplomacy.
• Russia is facing significant military and economic challenges that could seriously compromise Russia's ability to wage its war in Ukraine, factors that could increase the Kremlin's desire to accomplish its objectives in a mediated ceasefire or peace negotiation in the short-term if possible.
• The US Treasury Department announced on April 2 that the United States lifted sanctions on Karina Rotenberg, the wife of Russian businessman and oligarch Boris Rotenberg.
• Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in Kursk and Belgorod and near Lyman, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
• The Russian State Duma adopted a bill on April 3 to grant veteran status to Russian military personnel and volunteer formations that fought in Kursk Oblast.

@MissConductUS

"I had no idea that Schneider Electric was French. They are already very active in the US"

Yep Schneider's HQ is not that far from where we live....

The French have been quite succesful at inserting their (sometimes state owned/controlled) companies into foreign markets without the locals really noticing..I can't grumble at that too much, helps keep some of my bills down..

EDF are a classic example..big energy supplier in the UK..

https://www.edfenergy.com/

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

US committed to its NATO membership, Rubio says. (kyivindependent.com/us-commited-to-its-nato-membership-rubio-says/)

⚡️NATO assets may be used (kyivindependent.com/nato-assets-may-be-used-for-peacekeeping-mission-in-ukraine-ft-reports/) for peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, FT reports.
NATO's command and control structures could be used to deploy a so-called "reassurance force" to Ukraine, unnamed officials told the FT.

⚡️More F-16 jets being prepared (kyivindependent.com/more-f-16-jets-being-prepared-for-ukraine-us-general-says/) for Ukraine, US general says.
More F-16 fighter jets are being prepared for transfer to Ukraine, U.S. General Christopher Cavoli said on April 3.

⚡️US, Russia make 'significant progress' (kyivindependent.com/us-russia-make-significant-progress-towards-ukraine-ceasefire-deal-kremlin-negotiator-claims/) towards Ukraine ceasefire deal, Kremlin negotiator claims.

⚡️Trump's team advises against (kyivindependent.com/trumps-team-advises-against-calling-putin-nbc-reports/) calling Putin, NBC reports.
U.S. President Donald Trump's inner circle opposes him making phone calls to Russian President Vladimir Putin, NBC News reported on April 3, citing two unnamed officials.

⚡️Russia plans to increase grouping in Ukraine by 150,000 troops (kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-to-increase-grouping-in-ukraine-by-150-000-soldiers-in-2025-ukraines-official-says/) in 2025, Ukrainian official says.
"Their formation is ongoing. The Russians have no problems with recruiting personnel now," Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa said.

⚡️Diplomacy may be 'only way' (kyivindependent.com/diplomacy-may-be-only-way-to-restore-occupied-territories-zelensky-says/)to restore occupied territories, Zelensky says.

⚡️Full ceasefire possible in 'weeks' (kyivindependent.com/full-ceasefire-possible-in-weeks-if-west-puts-pressure-on-russia-zelensky-says/) if West puts pressure on Russia, Zelensky says.

⚡️'Coalition of the Willing' agrees at least one European leader should engage with Russia (https://kyivindependent.com/coalition-of-the-willing-agrees-at-least-one-european-leader-should-engage-with-russia-stubb-says/) Stubb says.

⚡️Ukraine informs US about Russia's energy ceasefire violations (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-informs-us-about-russias-energy-ceasefire-violations/), Ukrainian official says.

⚡️EU members have already pledged half of $5.5 billion (kyivindependent.com/eu-countries-aid-ukraine/) ammunition package for Ukraine, Kallas says.

⚡️Ukraine receives 5,000 more Starlink terminals (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-5-000-more-starlink-terminals-from-poland-minister-says/) from Poland, minister says.

⚡️Denmark unveils (kyivindependent.com/denmark-allocates-new-aid-package-to-ukraine-worth-almost-1-billion/) new aid for Ukraine worth almost $1 billion.

⚡️Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine secures funding (kyivindependent.com/czech-ammunition-initiative-for-ukraine-secures-funding-until-september-2025-czech-fm-says/) until September 2025, Czech FM says.
The initiative, backed by contributions from Canada, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, and other European countries, has significantly boosted Ukraine's artillery capabilities, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said.

⚡️Trump's tariffs may hit (https://kyivindependent.com/trumps-tariffs-may-hit-us-defense-production-politico-reports/) US defense production including F-35 fighter jet, air defense projects, Politico reports. 
The tariffs could undermine international defense cooperation by jeopardizing joint military projects, including producing the F-35 fighter jet, air defense systems, and constructing nuclear submarines.

⚡️'Difficult, but not critical' — Ukraine's economy minister reacts (kyivindependent.com/difficult-but-not-critical-ukraines-economy-minister-reacts-to-trumps-tariffs/) to Trump's tariffs.
Ukraine's exports to the U.S. in 2024 amounted to $874 million, including $363 million in cast iron and $112 million in pipes, Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said on April 3.
The same year, Ukraine imported $3.4 billion worth of U.S. goods.

How Trump’s tariffs will impact Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/how-trumps-tariffs-will-impact-ukraine/)

⚡️ Massive fire breaks out (kyivindependent.com/russian-shipyard-catches-fire-in-karelia/) at Russian shipyard in Karelia.
A gas explosion likely started the blaze at the Onega Shipbuilding and Repair Plant's new workshop, which covered an area of 1,500 square meters, the Russian media reported.

⚡️Russia's year-on-year oil, gas revenue drops by 17% (kyivindependent.com/russias-year-on-year-oil-revenues-drop-17-in-march-amid-us-sanctions-strong-ruble/)in March.
Russia's Finance Ministry said the government lost roughly 230 billion rubles ($2.7 billion) in tax income compared to March 2024, with oil and gas revenues accounting for one-third of the total state income.

⚡️Belarusian journalist in Czechia uncovered as Russian agent (kyivindependent.com/belarusian-journalist-in-czechia-uncovered-as-russian-agent-by-intelligence/) by intelligence.

⚡️UPDATED: Russian drone attack against Kharkiv kills 3, injures 32, (kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-attack-against-kharkiv-kills-2-injures-at-least-32/) including child.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
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34m
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA - APR 4, 2025
■ Fewer engagements while casualties drop only slightly
■ Decreased equipment losses but APV losses well above average
■ Increased strikes on both sides, strike ratio improves a little

Deleted in the light of more info from UNITED24 Media.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Russian threat to NATO will persist for years, even after a peace agreement with Ukraine – Secretary General Rutte
He made this remark ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers.

The Republic of Korea has provided Ukraine with a new aid package worth $100 million, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said after a meeting with his South Korean counterpart, Cho Tae-yul.

More F-16s are being prepared for delivery to Ukraine, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Christopher Cavoli said.
“There are several F-16s there [in Ukraine]. There are several [trained] pilots there. More F-16s are getting ready to go.
More pilots are in training—I can provide the exact number in the closed part of the hearing. They are working. The planes are in service and flying every day,” he stated during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.
According to him, none of the F-16s were delivered from the United States: “These were mainly planes from northern European countries: the Netherlands, Denmark.”

European countries supply over half of Ukraine’s ammunition needs – Kaia Kallas

Ukraine has received five thousand new Starlink terminals from Poland. In total, Poland has transferred more than 29 thousand Starlink satellite communication terminals to Ukraine, said Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov.
The terminals will be sent to hospitals, schools, and critical infrastructure facilities, with some also allocated to frontline territories.

Denmark has announced a new aid package for Ukraine worth nearly $1 billion.
The package includes air defense systems, artillery, and financial assistance for the Ukrainian Air Force.

🤦‍♂️ FIFA President Supports Russia’s Return to International Football
FIFA President Gianni Infantino said during the UEFA Congress in Belgrade that he wants Russia to return to international football as soon as possible.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Top US and NATO diplomats (www.kyivpost.com/post/50152) voiced strong support for Ukraine and Trump’s efforts to end the war — an exclusive Kyiv Post report from the first day of the NATO Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Belgium.

During a UN Security (www.kyivpost.com/post/50125) Council meeting Moscow convened on Wednesday its First Deputy Representative spoke about its view that the prospect for peace in Ukraine had been sabotaged by disinformation particularly relating to the “Bucha hoax”.

The United States has withdrawn (www.kyivpost.com/post/50137) from an international group collecting evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

A Russian drone (www.kyivpost.com/post/50158) attack hit the Kyiv region overnight, sparking massive fires and injuring civilians.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russian Special Representative Kirill Dmitriev stated that “significant progress” has been made in the negotiations in Washington regarding an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine.
What else the Russian negotiator said:
— The timing of new negotiations between Russia and the United States will be determined in the near future.
— The Trump administration is “constructive and conducts itself respectfully in dialogue with Russia. The Trump administration listens to Russia’s position.”
— Russia and the United States are discussing the restoration of direct air travel, and American companies are ready to fill the niches left by European companies that have exited Russia.
— “We are seeing positive dynamics in our relations. And it will take a series of further meetings for us to resolve all our differences,” Dmitriev said.

Zelensky announced that during future negotiations to end the war, Ukraine will not agree to reducing its army or recognizing Russian-occupied territories.
Ukraine believes the agreements reached in Saudi Arabia are in effect, says Deputy Head of the Office of the President Pavlo Palisa.
This includes the cessation of strikes on energy infrastructure, port infrastructure, and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. Violations of these agreements are being documented by Ukraine and reported to the American side through diplomatic channels.
At the same time, Ukraine has not provided the American side with a specific list of critical infrastructure facilities, their names, or coordinates. Instead, it has conveyed criteria for identifying such facilities, Palisa emphasizes.
According to Palisa, American negotiators did not pressure the Ukrainian side during the talks. They were surprised that Ukraine was willing to agree to a ceasefire and proposed a plan divided into “domains” (air, land, sea). In his view, the Russian delegation had less authority from its leadership compared to the Ukrainian delegation.

Ilon Musk’s father said that he and his son admire Putin and consider him “an example of a strong leader.” This is what Errol Musk said in an interview with the BBC.
“As a family, we definitely admire Mr. Putin a bit. It would be foolish not to admire him because he is always calm. I listen to his speeches – he says logical things. If you evaluate him as a man to a man, I’m not talking about relations between countries and so on, but just as a man to a man, it is very difficult not to feel admiration for Mr. Putin,” Errol Musk said.
According to Musk’s father, it’s not only him who thinks this way, but also his son.
"We are the same, we all think like that. All this rhetoric – ‘don’t trust this person’ – all these people are trying to convince you that you should not trust Putin’s words. As a result, part of you thinks – I shouldn’t trust this man. But on the other hand, he is an example of a strong leader for me,” Errol Musk said in the interview.

Thanks for the updated @DucklingSwimmingInstructress very interesting as always! I think the tone and actions from the US are interesting and point somewhat to the administration losing patience with Putin. For example publicly recommitting to NATO membership, sending more planes and advising Trump against calling Putin all speak to a slight shift.

Of course the wind might change again at any moment…

Agree @Igotjelly, but they’re just so inconsistent, eg tariffs, noises about the mineral deal, possibly looking to trade again in Russia, so it makes it hard to understand their rationale

U.S. Army General Chris Cavoli testifying to the Senate yesterday about the state of the war in Ukraine.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1908055816558751969

In his assessment, the Russians are not in a good place currently, militarily and economically.

@MissConductUS that gives rare hope in the midst of the all-enveloping gloom.

Would General Cavoli put himself at risk with Trump for being too pessimistic about the Russian state of play? What role does or can the Senate play in this Trumpian world?

Children among 14 dead in Russian attack on Zelensky's home city

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3wxe5g4z9yo

Because the president is the commander in chief, all officers serve at his pleasure, so Trump could force him out. Cavoli is saying that the Russians are not negotiating from a position of strength militarily or economically. That's good news for Trump. I've no idea if Trump sees it that way or not.

Trump needs the Senate to pass his budget and tax legislation, so he can't ignore them. But they have little direct influence over his foreign policy.

@MissConductUS thanks for explaining and always great to have your US insight.

FIFA President Supports Russia’s Return to International Football
FIFA President Gianni Infantino said during the UEFA Congress in Belgrade that he wants Russia to return to international football as soon as possible.

I hope the rest of World refuses to play. Someone needs to tell him to get to fuck.

This article yesterday from an American to Americans about the new realities (and taking in Ukraine, Russia and the whole shooting yourself in the foot and then the head) is one of the best.

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-american-age-is-over

It's good to have some optimism from an expert. There has been so much negativity (claims of encirclement in Kursk which turned out to be wildly exaggerated for example) which appears to have been Russian disinformation designed to make the West think that Ukraine was a lost cause.