Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

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I think at least the Guardian is trying to cover both to some extent, but the problem is I think many only have maybe enough capacity to handle only one conflict/potentially existential world crisis at a time.

After the last few days I'm genuinely not sure which conflict is more of a risk to many of the European democracies but eventsin Gaza have the potential to escalate very quickly into something very widespread and quite unspeakable.

"May you live in Interesting times" is wearing a bit thin.....

The other factor may be theres not been a lot to report on the front. Incremental gain here, incremental loss there.

A pause in headlines might not be such a bad thing right now to prevent people losing interest

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

While new Speaker Johnson has previously been skeptical about aid to Ukraine, he said he is open to talks about Joe Biden's request for additional funds to help Ukraine, — Bloomberg.

🇪🇺 The EU is behind schedule to provide Ukraine with one million artillery shells by March 2024, — Bloomberg.
According to the plans approved earlier this year, the EU promised to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition within 12 months, while the plan is only 30% fulfilled so far.

Bulgaria has given its approval to join the European anti-missile defense system 'Sky Shield,' as reported by News.bg.
This decision involves participating in a joint initiative for the acquisition of necessary equipment and the maintenance of ground air defense systems. A total of 14 European countries are part of this project, which is aimed at enhancing the security of European Union member states.
The 'Sky Shield' project was proposed by Germany in response to the Russian war in Ukraine and has attracted participation from various countries, including neutral states like Austria and Switzerland.

🇨🇳 Chinese leader Xi Jinping said that China is ready to cooperate with the United States, because the fate of humanity depends on them
According to him, the two sides are overcoming their differences and working together to "meet global challenges."

⚡️Australia has stationed an aircraft in Germany to protect the flow of aid to Ukraine, the US and Australian leaders said in a joint statement.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni emphasized the importance of continuing to support Ukraine in the war started by Russia.

Member of the European Parliament from the Netherlands, Bart Groothuis, offered to hand over to Ukraine dozens of armored vehicles confiscated during attempts to smuggle them into Libya

Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, has shed light on the activities of captured Russians who have chosen to defect to Ukraine.
He stated, 'Today, some of these Russians, who willingly renounced their Russian passports, are actively engaged in combat alongside Ukrainian security and defense forces. They are dedicated to the mission of liberating our land from Russian invaders.'
Yusov also noted, 'Among these individuals, some have made the ultimate sacrifice and lost their lives in the pursuit of Ukraine's independence and freedom.'

In Kazakhstan, they want to deprive Russians of the ability to remotely issue their bank cards
The National Bank of the Republic has published a draft resolution according to which only those foreigners who have a temporary residence permit or a residence permit will be able to obtain cards in Kazakhstan.
After the departure of international payment systems from the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan bank cards were used by many Russians to pay for various services abroad and purchases on the Internet.

For the first time, a Ukrainian teacher has been ranked in the top ten educators according to the Global Teacher Prize. Artur Proydakov, who teaches Ukrainian language and literature to children, achieved this milestone.
Additionally, another Ukrainian educator, Liudmyla Tabolina, has been named among the 50 best teachers in the world. Like Proydakov, she is also a teacher of Ukrainian language and literature.

The Parliament of Wales recognized the Holodomor of 1932-33 as genocide of the Ukrainian people

❗️The George and Amal “Clooney Foundation For Justice” has made a significant request to the German prosecutor's office, urging an investigation into three episodes of war crimes committed by Russians in Ukraine. They have provided evidence to support their appeal.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russian special services are recruiting Ukrainian children for anti-Semitic provocations.
The SBU uncovered a Telegram network where schoolchildren aged 13 to 17 were forced to put offensive inscriptions on memorials in their towns and villages and detonate improvised explosive devices. Participants were required to provide photo and video reports. This "evidence" was then used by foreign media to discredit Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelensky said that after the Ukrainian attack on the airfields in occupied Berdiansk and Luhansk, Russians began to actively withdraw their aircraft from there.
Also, according to the President, the occupiers are taking their aircraft out of Crimea as well.

Minister for Strategic Industries Kamyshin said that Ukraine's production of shells has increased significantly, but Kyiv still relies heavily on supplies from partners.

Ukraine will soon increase production of ammunition at the expense of state and private enterprises, equipment is already being installed, says NSDC Secretary Danilov

Ukraine and Russia continue to maintain channels of communication during Russia's military aggression to address key humanitarian issues related to the exchange of prisoners of war, bodies, the grain corridor, and the return of Ukrainian children from Russia - WP.
Neither side reportedly seeks to publicize the existence of these "back channels."
According to Dmytro Usov, a representative of the GUR, it is "emotionally difficult" because Russia is the enemy, but "whatever relations we have now, we as Ukrainians are interested in the return of our defenders, and if we reject all channels of communication, we will not be able to do this."

🇷🇺 Russian manufacturers of Kinzhal and Iskander are circumventing sanctions and receiving components from Europe, investigators from The Insider have found. https://theins.ru/politika/265990

"🇨🇳 Chinese leader Xi Jinping said that China is ready to cooperate with the United States, because the fate of humanity depends on them
According to him, the two sides are overcoming their differences and working together to "meet global challenges."

This sounds... positive?

It does. I do think China are more pragmatic than they're often given credit for.

I think people (me included) struggle to look beyond the rhetoric that we see in China-Russia relations.

For those who haven't listened yet it's worth listening to the second half of Ukraine the Latest from 19th Oct. They interview William Alberque from the Institute for Strategic Studies to discuss nuclear proliferation and risk. He surmises that he isn't overly concerned about the risk of Russian nuclear use, or that of China (at least in the short term) and that he sees the biggest potential for nuclear use is in North Korea and potentially India/Pakistan.

He closes by saying the World is no where near where it was during the cold war in terms of the risk of nuclear war. He thinks the potential for use is extremely low and that the focus should be not on how to deal with the fear of nuclear use but rather try to build channels for engagement.

In fairness there hasn't been much more than a whisper about Acalupo today or yesterday, which you'd expect under other circumstances.

China is happy to play the long game. If they look reasonable it gives them support AGAINST US interests too though.

Definitely keen to hear more about the Xi Ping/ China comments.

Sorry, Xi Jinping!

@Igotjelly yes to all of this. BUT : I have my eye on the recent trouble in the South China Sea and also what's happening in Azerbaijan. It's in areas like this that the Russia-China relationship seems underscored vis a vis the US. And the optics too of Putin and Xi meeting and not being involved in what's happening in the Middle East vs the US involvement. I wish we did have a clearer sense of China's real face. I'm a bit absent from the thread these days because I have phases where I feel a bit overwhelmed by the horribleness of it all and then what's happening in Israel/Gaza too. Sorry, that was a bit of a brain dump rant. Thanks so much to all of you who keep this thread going. I read it religiously and it steers me through the mess a lot!

Oh yes and North Korea too : russia has its hands all over that

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-25-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and continued offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 25.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka on October 25 and made a confirmed advance.
• Russian sources claimed on October 25 that Ukrainian forces resumed larger-than-usual ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and maintain positions in several areas on the east bank. Only a handful of Russian sources are currently claiming that Ukrainian forces have resumed larger-than-usual ground operations on the east bank, however.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a fall-winter Russian strike campaign against Ukraine after another series of Russian drone strikes on the night of October 24 to 25.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited an Eastern Grouping of Forces command post in the south Donetsk direction (Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) on October 25.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed that Lieutenant General Andrei Kuzmenko is the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander on October 25, likely also confirming Kuzmenko’s position as Eastern Military District (EMD) commander.
• The Kremlin’s support for ultranationalist Russian Orthodox religion and ideology appears to be complicating Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s ability to balance appealing to his Chechen Muslim constituencies with keeping the Kremlin’s favor.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, near Bakhmut, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia but did not make confirmed advances.
• Russian National Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed that nearly 385,000 people have entered service with the Russian armed forces between January 1 and October 25, 2023.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to use medical infrastructure to justify the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia and to further consolidate control of occupied areas of Ukraine.

I do think China are more pragmatic than they're often given credit for.

Pragmatic maybe - but if you want to talk about forgotten atrocities, Ukraine is still doing better in terms of world recognition than the plight of the Uyghur Muslims. And every time China is accorded this "helpful" understanding, what they are doing to the Uyghurs (and other minority peoples within China) gets further and further from the headlines.

Indeed, Naem. Was thinking about the Uyghurs again today, because every time I need to buy something... oh, it's made in China.

An article about the Uyghurs made clear that forced labour by captive Uyghurs, many of whom have been moved around the country, is such an integral part of China's supply chain that it's not really possible to think in terms of "this region" or "this product" being free of it.

Absolutely, their treatment of the Uyghurs is absolutely appalling and deserves far more attention than its given! I wasn't for a second saying China's hands are clean, far from it, simply that in terms of geopolitics and engagement with the US on areas of joint interest they are more pragmatic than for example the likes of Russia generally.

China's govt is scary. The Uighirs, the extreme surveillance, the corruption, the undermining of Western democracy, the debt-slavery for other countries.

The West treated China appallingly in the past, and not so distant past either, but China's govt is a threatening nightmare. The most important moderate voice has just died too, Li Keqiang, a sensible economist who was in the running to become Premier for a time. Winnie the Pooh isolated him once he became Premier though.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russian MPs approve https://kyivindependent.com/russian-mps-vote-to-support-68-increase-in-military-spending/ 68% increase in military spending.

⚡️Bloomberg: China to skip https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-china-to-skip-talks-ukraine-peace-formula/ talks on Ukraine peace formula.
China's expected absence from the Malta talks marks a setback in attempts to garner international support for President Volodymyr Zelensky's peace formula and to sway Beijing away from Moscow.

⚡️ Denmark donates $520 million in military aid https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-donates-520-million-in-military-aid-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine.
Denmark has presented a military aid package to Ukraine worth 3.7 billion Danish kroner ($520 million), including T-72EA tanks, BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, artillery shells, drones, and small arms, the Danish Defense Ministry announced on Oct. 26.

⚡️US announces https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-150-million-aid-package-for-ukraine/ $150 million aid package for Ukraine.
The aid package includes air defense capabilities, artillery shells, anti-tank weapons, and other equipment needed to repel Russian aggression.

⚡️RFE/RL: Russia increasing https://kyivindependent.com/rfe-rl-russia-increasing-production-capacity-at-military-factories-across-the-country/ production capacity at military factories across the country through analysis of satellite images..

⚡️ Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto visits Belarus for 2nd time (https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-foreign-minister-visits-https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-foreign-minister-visits-belarus-for-2nd-time-in-2023/ in 2023.

⚡️ National Resistance Center: Russia actively recruiting Cuban mercenaries https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russia-actively-recruiting-cuban-mercenaries/
Russia is "massively" recruiting Cuban mercenaries to fight in Ukraine, the National Resistance Center claimed on Oct. 26.
They are allegedly involved in current fighting around Bakhmut and Kupiansk.

⚡️ Reuters: Export blockade threatens Ukraine's steel industry. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-export-blockade-threatens-ukraines-steel-industry/
Ukraine's massive steel industry has faced massive losses as a result of Russia's war and the related blockade of the Black Sea, Reuters reported on Oct. 26.
The industry, which made up 10% of Ukraine's GDP and 30% of exports before the full-scale invasion, has reportedly shrunk by more than 80% since 2021.

As Bakhmut counteroffensive lags, soldiers burnt out from horrors of war https://kyivindependent.com/as-bakhmut-counteroffensive-lags-soldiers-burnt-out-from-horrors-of-war/ Emotional burnout and the desire to go home are increasing as Ukraine continues to wage its counteroffensive on three main axes, including the one near Bakhmut.

⚡️ Iohannis: Romania installs anti-drone system https://kyivindependent.com/romania-says-anti-drone-system-already-installed-on-danube/ at Ukraine's border.

⚡️Latvia restricts https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-restricts-cars-with-russian-license-plates/ cars with Russian license plates.

Media: Zaporizhzhia reconstruction https://kyivindependent.com/hromadske-zaporizhzhia-reconstruction-marked-overshot-prices-non-transparent-tenders/ marked by overblown prices, non-transparent tenders, an investigation by Hromadske published on Oct. 26 said.

⚡️Hamas delegation visits https://kyivindependent.com/hamas-delegation-visits-moscow/ Moscow.
A delegation of the militant group Hamas, which governs Gaza, arrived in Moscow on Oct. 26, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said without elaborating on the visit details.

⚡️Slovenian company provides https://kyivindependent.com/slovenian-company-provides-drones-to-ukraine/ drones to Ukraine. Drone manufacturer C-Astral did not disclose how many were shipped or the exact dates of the shipments.

⚡️Swedish court acquits https://kyivindependent.com/ap-swedish-man-acquitted-on-charges-of-spying-for-russia/ businessman charged with spying for Russia.
Sergey Skvortsov, who was arrested last November near Stockholm, was alleged to have undertaken “gross illegal intelligence activities against Sweden and against a foreign power,” namely the United States.

⚡️ Foreign Ministry: https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministry-22-ukrainians-killed-in-israel-gaza/ 22 Ukrainians killed in Israel, Gaza, including 2 children.

⚡️Poll: Trust in government in Ukraine increases https://kyivindependent.com/poll-trust-in-government-in-ukraine-increases-after-russias-full-scale-invasion/ after Russia's full-scale invasion.
Around 73% of respondents trust President Volodymyr Zelensky, 54% trust the government, 49% and 51% trust the regional and local authorities, respectively, according to a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

but

⚡️ Survey: Majority of Ukrainians dissatisfied https://kyivindependent.com/survey-majority-of-ukrainians-dissatisfied-with-governments-reform-efforts/ with government's reform efforts.
Some 71% of Ukrainians consider the government's reform efforts insufficient, while only around 19% deem them adequate, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Insitute of Sociology published on Oct. 26.

⚡️ Zelensky signs law strengthening financial https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-on-strengthening-financial-monitoring-of-politicians/ monitoring of politicians.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on Oct. 26 on financial monitoring of politically exposed persons, which is a vital step on the country's path toward EU membership.

Moscow thermal power plant catches fire https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-thermal-power-plant-catches-fire/

⚡️ Ukraine reveals remote-controlled, wheeled drone (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-reveals-remote-controlled-wheeled-drone-that-can-drive-under-russian-tanks/) that can get under Russian tanks.
Ukrainian military tech developers created a new unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) with the ability to carry explosives and drive under armored vehicles, the project's spokesperson, Viktoriia Kovalchuk, told Business Insider on Oct. 25. [reported a few days ago too]

Much quieter day yesterday.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Visa has prohibited banks from countries neighboring Russia from opening accounts for Russians. For violation, the fine is $1 million for each card.
A warning about the ban was sent by mail. According to it, for each card issued to a resident of the Russian Federation, the company will fine the violating banks $1 million. The preliminary ban on service applies only to those citizens of the Russian Federation who are not residents of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc. [Admittedly it would be useful to see this confirmed]

Orbán wants negotiations with Ukraine in Budapest to remove the veto from EU military aid for 500 million
"We are waiting for the arrival of the Ukrainian delegation to Budapest for negotiations about this. We are open and ready to negotiate," said the Prime Minister of Hungary

Great Britain, together with other allies, will transfer additional air defense systems and demining equipment to Ukraine, — The General Staff.

The Pentagon is deploying two carrier strike groups, eleven Arleigh Burke-type KRO destroyers, several Ticonderoga-type KRO cruisers, amphibious assault ships, THAAD and Patriot air defense systems, numerous fighter squadrons, strategic bombers and others in the Middle East.

++++

The enemy is trying to develop success on the railway near Avdiivka, to seize as many sections as possible along the line, — military correspondent Bohdan Myroshnikov.

"Also, they try to move west as fast as possible if they can cross the railroad. Our military did not appreciate this and forced the enemy to retreat to their starting positions. We need to follow the railway, it is precisely that direction that is the most dangerous on the northern flank," Myroshnikov writes.

Terikon, whose alleged "capture" was written about by the Russian public, remains in the gray zone. Attempts of the enemy to gain a foothold, as before, are prevented from various calibers.

"From Vodyanny-Opytny to the north, the enemy had little success. In the Nevelsky area, there have been no changes," the military correspondent adds.

At the same time, according to other military correspondents, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to advance significantly east of the railway line near Andriivka and dislodge the invaders from several trench systems.

According to OSINT analysts, the Russians are visibly concerned about this advance.

The table is new, but the phobias are old

A mural depicting a young girl sheltered beneath the Ukrainian flag, surrounded by toys, has emerged on a building in Prague. The artist behind this poignant work is Chemis, a Kazakh-born street artist now residing in the Czech Republic. With the assistance of his team, they brought this mural to life in just a matter of days.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Unilever, one of the world leaders in the food and household chemicals market, has decided to continue its business in Russia - the report for the 3rd quarter of this year does not contain any action plan to exit Russia. https://www.unilever.com/news/press-and-media/press-releases/2023/solid-q3-results-and-action-plan-to-drive-growth-and-unlock-potential/

Zaluzhny met with the Commander-in-Chief of NATO's Joint Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, and the Chief of the British Defense Staff, Admiral Tony Radakin

🇸🇰 Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico tells European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that he will not provide military aid to Ukraine, only humanitarian aid.

An entrepreneur who could have sold engines for Orlan-10 drones to Russia is arrested in Germany.
It is alleged that in 2022 and 2023, he supplied https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2023/10/26/7172256/aircraft engine models, electronic components and other materials through an intermediary in Hong Kong to a company based in St. Petersburg.
According to the investigation, the aircraft engines of the model that the businessman sold to Russia are used, in particular, in Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance UAVs. They are used by the Russian armed forces in the war against Ukraine to direct artillery fire.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-26-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Heavy Russian equipment losses around Avdiivka will likely undermine Russian offensive capabilities over the long term.
• Ukrainian forces marginally advanced on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian officials denied reports that Ukraine suspended a corridor for civilian vessels in the Black Sea on October 26.
• An amendment to the Russian citizenship law allowing for the revocation of naturalized Russian citizenship came into force on October 26, providing the Russian government with a new mechanism to coerce migrants into Russian military service.
• A senior Hamas delegation traveled to Moscow and met with Russian and Iranian officials on October 26.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• Several Russian opposition outlets reported that Russian defense industrial base (DIB) companies continue to use Western components supplied through intermediaries to manufacture missiles to use against Ukraine.
• Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to forcibly indoctrinate Ukrainian youth into Russian culture and identity through the expansion of military-patriotic educational programs.

The most important moderate voice has just died too, Li Keqiang, a sensible economist who was in the running to become Premier for a time. Winnie the Pooh isolated him once he became Premier though.

lol at Xi likened to Winnie The Pooh. Presumably look-wise, not brain.

Sad for a moderate to become sidelined in Chinese politics and to die so relatively young. Nothing fishy in that, of course.

Saw this article in the WSJ:

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/li-keqiang-chinese-ex-premier-who-helped-shape-economic-policy-dies-at-68-947feac5

Excerpt below as the article is behind a pay wall. Looks like the death is genuine natural causes rather than the Russian falling window variety.

Li experienced a sudden heart attack on Thursday while in Shanghai, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. He died shortly after midnight after “all-out efforts to revive him failed,” said Xinhua, which didn’t provide further details. He was 68.

An official obituary, issued Friday evening, cited Li’s contributions in implementing Xi’s policies, including efforts to boost economic development, reduce rural poverty and combat the Covid-19 pandemic. The obituary name-checked Xi five times, including references to how Li had performed his duties under Xi’s strong leadership and—in retirement—continued to uphold Xi’s authority.

Li’s death “is a great loss to the party and the country,” said the obituary, which called on the Chinese people to turn grief into strength and rally around Xi’s leadership.

The obituary was issued more than 10 hours after the initial announcement of Li’s death—a delay that China politics watchers say suggested that the party hadn’t anticipated the former premier’s passing and needed time to complete its official accounting of his career.

Ds wrote his dissertation for his Politics & International Relations degree on MEMES AND^ SOCIAL^ PROTEST IN CHINA : A CASE STUDY INTO HOW WINNIE-THE-POOH BECAME A TOOL OF RESISTANCE AGAINST XI JINPING

(formatting problems because I C&Ped from his title page )

Brilliant! Big Man Xi won't like being mocked.