Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

*..What's really, really odd here is that apparently there was NO intelligence that this was going to happen.

This is inexplicable.

1 - either Hamas kept absolutely everything to itself. Hard to believe.

2 - Israel, the US, 5 Eyes all failed to hear anything. Very odd.

3 - Certain people within Mossad etc knew, but kept quiet. Which is inexplicable.*

Good questions but...

1. Given the nature of the action how many people outside Hamas would need to have been given much if any notice?
2. Comms by word of mouth?....how good is 5 eyes at Humint
3. I think Mossad quite possibly didn't know until too late (see my point 1 and 2).

Also never underestimate the "cock up factor" - see for example the intelligence and more importantly political cockups that allowed the Argentinians to invade the Falklands pretty much unopposed in '82.

@DancesWithDucks

It's the very murky Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas links. Maybe there is nothing to it but surely it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Iran as a supporter of Russia has used contacts within Hamas to engineer this conflict at this time. There was obviously the 50th Anniversary of the Yom Kippur war and the obvious continuous low level conflict of the IDF and militants as reasons (plus closer ties between the Saudis and the West) but why now? The militant action seems to have required a great deal of planning and possibly there were state actors deep in the background?

There are already veiled hints on the BBC news thread that we should be looking at Ukraine and the consequences of the war in Gaza on at least the public perception of that conflict.

My concern is that a disproportionate response from the IDF in terms of a prolonged land conflict in the heavily urbanised Gaza strip (which is entirely feasible) will portray Israel as the new 'bad guy' in some eyes in terms of civilian deaths and let Russia off the hook or at least give them another armed group to point fingers at .

Public support for the long term conflict in Ukraine from the US is reliant to some extent on the Russian invasion being the number one threat to global peace and stability. If the US citizenry now have the middle east and the prevention of terrorism as their international focus this may dilute the political will for the necessary support of Ukraine

I think it is extremely important for Russia to not be allowed to make propaganda gains from the Middle East and I don't think Russia is entirely neutral in this even though the two conflicts appear superficially to be entirely disconnected.

I'm not sure that Iran care much about the strategic value to Russia, their relationship is mostly a trading one. This is purely for Iran's own ends.

UNITED24 Telegram

The secretary of the "United Russia" department in the temporarily occupied Novaya Kakhovka, Vladimir Malov, died of his injuries. [partisans blew him up]

After the meeting between Kim Jong Un and Putin, the DPRK significantly increased its transportation to Russia, — Beyond Parallel.
A satellite image of a railway facility in the North Korean city of Tumangan, on the border with Russia, from October 5, 2023, recorded an unprecedented number of freight cars — 73.

In Ukraine, the production of drones has grown a hundred times over the past year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said. More than 200 Ukrainian companies started manufacturing drones

Kadyrov proposes to cancel the elections in the Russian Federation until the end of the war against Ukraine

For the first time, Ukraine won the FIFA World Cup among hearing impaired players

There are no Ukrainians among the victims in Israel, — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

The Prime Minister of Israel announced the completion of the first stage of the operation and the destruction of most of the enemy's forces on the territory of Israel.
It was also decided to stop the supply of electricity, fuel and goods to the Gaza Strip.

Israel invoked clause 40 aleph, which signifies a formal declaration of war.
The last time this clause was invoked was in 1973, during the Yom Kippur War.
Israel is also evacuating all citizens residing in cities near the Gaza border within a 24-hour timeframe.
Meanwhile, the country's Ministry of Health reported that the number of casualties from the Hamas attack had risen to 2,048, with the death toll reaching at least 400 people.

Israel's second largest thermal power plant was struck.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇨🇭🇷🇺There are about 80 Russian spies in Switzerland, which is about one fifth of the total number of Russian agents in Europe — Neue Zürcher Zeitung https://www.nzz.ch/nzz-am-sonntag/russische-spione-draengen-in-die-schweiz-ld.1759834

Two Ukrainian citizens were killed in Israel, measures are being taken to organize the repatriation of the bodies, the Ukrainian Embassy in Israel reported. [Report updated from previous statement there were no Ukrainians killed]

An OSINT investigator published a satellite image of the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, which was attacked by missiles on September 22.

Dmitry Medvedev puts fault for the situation in Israel on the USA, calling them "idiots".

At the Gaza festival for peace, they are saying that they have found at least 250 bodies

Oh no.

I am not an expert, but I don't think Hamas or their backers will be thinking much outside of the Middle East. They know Israel is looking at a reapproachement with Saudi Arabia and the chance to be acknowledged amongst the Sunni powers in the region. Iran could be left isolated and they need a certain amount of chaos to maintain their diplomacy. They do t have the same oil wealth or trade links as the other kingdoms.

My thoughts today are with the civilians in both sides. People in the Gaza strip have nowhere to flee to and people in Israel don't know where the next rocket attack will happen. It's sickening, unnecessary and they all deserve much better. I hope Hamas as a organisation will be destroyed.

I wonder of how much Hamas -is- made up of ex Isis fighters.

As long as we're talking about the Middle East, I'll add that the Israelis are trading artillery fire with Hezbollah across the Lebanese border, raising concerns about a second front there. The US is moving a carrier strike group (the USS Gerald R. Ford task force) from the Med to the area and had flown several squadrons of USAF fighter jets to Israel to support the Israeli Air Force, type not reported.

I think these moves are intended primarily as a warning to Iran to stay out of it.

and had flown several squadrons of USAF fighter jets to Israel....

Are you sure about that bit? All I'm seeing is increasing numbers in the region.

Do we think the action in the middle East will have any bearing on Ukraine? The support of Israel by Ukraine I think is notable and suggests that Iran is really annoying a lot of people at the moment.

Again we don't know how much of US foreign policy bandwidth Israel is going to take and whether this may or may not be to Ukraine's detriment. Personally I feel this muddied the waters from a global perspective and maybe removes some of the focus from Ukraine where focus is indeed needed.

A few hours ago the WSJ reported that they were sent “to Israel”. It has updated that to “closer to Israel”.

So far all close family are safe, although everybody is being called up. that we know of who are of call-up- able age (and some that aren't - the best man at our wedding we thought was now too old, he was a paramedic in the army and kept doing reserve duty as long as he could, but they finally told him he was too old, but they have called him up, or accepted his volunteering, as well). His son is flying back (recently finished his army stint, officer level, and will be going straight into combat no doubt).

We of course already know several people killed - and loads of DS2's friends are in the army - him being 20 (of course we live in the UK, so he is here at university), many of them in combat units, or just finishing basic training. Our family is not really in the south though, and not of the right age to be at nature raves (either too old or too young) - which seems to be where the biggest casualties currently are - young people going to the equivalent of the various music festivals in the UK (think Leeds and Reading), they just seem to have mowed them down indiscriminately (not that anybody in Israel is surprised by that aspect, it is the lack of preparedness on the Israeli side, not what they would do if they burst through). Been rockets in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, but by comparison not significant.

How the government could have taken its eye off the ball like this is just inexplicable. This is their primary duty, to keep people safe. First and foremost.

Italy I read.

My instincts are with the view that that has nothing to do with Ukraine. It is what Hamas (and their backers in Iran and Qatar) have wanted to do for ages. Probably nothing to do with Russia either (although I suppose some of the money Russia is presumably giving Iran might have ended up there). Not that I think Russia will mind, birds of a feather and all that, but suspect there is no direct link.

I could be wrong, but I wonder if this could possibly help Ukraine, or at least not hinder them, give them a bit of time while everybody is focussing elsewhere to potentially break through. Depends if there is still a realistic chance of a break through or people think they have culminated. From what I am reading on Twitter, people seem to think that Ukraine are still moving forward, albeit slowly, and it might stop people looking over their shoulder and going, why aren't you going faster? while they focus on something else. Depends if this stays localised to Gaza or it explodes in the north and the West Bank as well, I guess, and how quickly Israel can move (ie how long it goes on). If Israel can get control of the situation quickly, then the focus will shift back I imagine. I don't know how realistic that is, but I expect Israel will try and move as fast as they can.

Thanks....that politically makes much more sense..

The WSJ has reported more details about the US military response.

Biden Administration Sending More Military Support for Israel

The Pentagon said Sunday it would provide the Israeli Defense Forces with equipment and weaponry, including munitions. That will be in addition to sending the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and other naval assets to the eastern Mediterranean in response to the crisis in Israel. The Pentagon, in a statement, did not detail what kind of munitions it would send, but said some materiel could arrive as early as Sunday. The U.S. maintains some weapons stocks inside Israel.

The U.S. also was sending an additional guided missile cruiser, and four guided missile destroyers. “We have also taken steps to augment U.S. Air Force fighter aircraft squadrons in the region, including F-35, F-15, F-16 and A-10 fighter squadrons, the Pentagon said.

Given that is now coming to light that Iran had a hand in the planning of these attacked does this give a new meaning to the presence of US aircraft carrier group in the med?

Could it be that Israel will be launching fighter attacks against Iranian targets and the US could possibly be involved?

Finding know if this would directly effect Ukraine but the commitment of the US to an ally might give them hope in terms of future commitment.

Should Iran be really worried at the momemnt?

@DancesWithDucks

I wonder of how much Hamas -is- made up of ex Isis fighters.

I'd put that at close to zero. Five or so years ago ISIS declared war on Hamas. It is discussed here:

https://www.npr.org/2018/01/15/578172703/what-effect-isis-declaration-of-war-against-hamas-could-have-in-the-middle-east

Could it be that Israel will be launching fighter attacks against Iranian targets and the US could possibly be involved?

I'd speculate the US presence is being increased to dissuade any other actors in the area from thinking of getting involved, rather than to facilitate direct operations in support of whatever the Israeli's decide to do with Iran....but yes, Iran should be worried about what the Israeli's intend to do, whenever they intend to do it.

I could of course be proved wrong in a matter of hours.

@mids2019

Given that is now coming to light that Iran had a hand in the planning of these attacked does this give a new meaning to the presence of US aircraft carrier group in the med?

I'm pretty sure the Gerald Ford is in the Mediterranean on normal rotation. The US has 11 Carriers and 9 LHA/Ds. Due to refits (which take ages) and time at bases only 2-3 of the former and 1-2 of the latter are generally at sea at any time.

Current approx. positions as of last Thursday (my source RANE/Stratfor):

@MMBaranova .

Thanks but does that still leave.options on the table when the US discuss responses with Israel?

@notimagain

I can see the deterence value and show of force and maybe that is all there is at this stage however the US has promised to give Israel what it needs for its defence.......against who?

The WSJ is reporting on the role of Iran in planning and coordinating the attack, but bloody MN is not letting me post the article.