Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-6-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 6.
• Russian forces appear to have recently conducted a regimental rotation in the Orikhiv area, demonstrating an ability to sustain their defenses in this critical sector of the frontline.
• Russian forces reportedly resumed an offensive effort near Kupyansk on October 6, but the majority of the Russian forces reportedly deployed to this sector of the front likely remain combat ineffective.
• Russian forces may be expanding military training infrastructure in occupied eastern Ukraine as part of ongoing efforts to increase the training and mobilization capacity of the Russian military.
• The Kremlin’s continued attempts to deflect blame for the crash of Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane and disgrace Prigozhin are generating continued praise for Prigozhin and efforts to defend his legacy among select information space communities.
• Former Russian military commanders who participated in the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reportedly remain in peripheral positions of some influence within the Russian military or defense-industrial base.
• Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike targeting port, grain, and border infrastructure in southern Ukraine on the night of October 5-6.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Lyman line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russia has reportedly recruited up to several hundred Serbian nationals to fight in Ukraine.

Extra:

ISW previously assessed that Russian forces were likely struggling to conduct tactical to operational level rotations along the entire frontline, but is revising this assessment considering the apparent rotation of substantial elements of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division and two VDV divisions to and from the frontline south of Orikhiv. [their bold]

A Russian insider source claimed that members of the Russian Presidential Administration ”provoked” Putin to deliver these statements in order to “de-heroize” Prigozhin, since Prigozhin’s previous statements questioning the reasons for the start of the war in Ukraine are apparently gaining popularity throughout Russia. [my bold]

Huge crisis in Israel today - Hamas are attacking Israel from the Gaza Strip and have occupied 7 settlements

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67037895

Israel is, of course, fighting back.

@Naem I hope you and yours are safe.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Envoy: Russia to withdraw from nuclear test ban treaty. https://kyivindependent.com/envoy-russia-to-withdraw-from-nuclear-test-ban-treaty/
Russia plans to reverse the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), Mikhail Ulyanov, the country's permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, said on Oct. 6. [predictable. Yay Russia, single handedly igniting the nuclear arms race again]

⚡️Reuters: US sanctions 42 Chinese companies https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-sanctions-42-chinese-companies-over-russian-military-support/ over Russian military support. [I can't point to any one indicator but a number of more subtle things give me the impression that China is quietly supporting Russia more, nowadays]

Sweden will send a new military aid package worth 2.2 billion Swedish krona ($199.8 million) to Ukraine and is assessing the delivery of Gripen fighter jets, the Swedish Defense Ministry announced on Oct. 6. https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-announces-200-million-military-aid-package-fighter-jets-under-consideration/

⚡️Netherlands announces new $100 million (https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-announces-new-support-package-worth-over-100-million-for-ukraine/)package to support Ukraine to support investments, recovery, and reforms.

⚡️Turkish cargo ship hits mine https://kyivindependent.com/turkish-cargo-ship-strikes-mine-in-the-black-sea-sustains-minor-damage/ in Black Sea, sustains minor damage.

North Korea has started to deliver artillery to Russia for its war in Ukraine, CBS News reported on Oct. 5, citing a U.S. official. https://kyivindependent.com/cbs-north-korea-supplying-russia-with-weapon/

⚡️Naftogaz: Foreign traders storing https://kyivindependent.com/naftogaz-international-companies-storing-2-2-billion-cubic-meters-of-gas-in-ukraine/over 2 billion cubic meters of gas in Ukraine in underground storage facilities, Naftogaz CEO Oleksiy Chernyishov said on Oct. 6..

⚡️Ukraine retrieves https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-retrieves-64-bodies-of-fallen-soldiers/ 64 bodies of fallen soldiers.

⚡️Reuters: Diplomats say https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-diplomats-say-russia-may-be-able-to-return-to-un-human-rights-council-because-of-ukraine-fatigue/ Russia could return to UN Human Rights Council over 'Ukraine fatigue.'
There is a sense, particularly among African and Asian countries, of a growing fatigue of the war in Ukraine.

⚡️Media: Serbian court issues https://kyivindependent.com/media-serbian-court-issues-final-refusal-to-extradite-sbu-ex-general-to-ukraine/ final refusal to extradite SBU ex-general to Ukraine.
The Court of Appeals in Nis, Serbia, confirmed an earlier refusal to extradite fugitive Andrii Naumov, the former head of the internal security department of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), reported RF/ERL's Ukrainian service on Oct. 6.

⚡️Ukraine seizes over $450 million https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-seizes-over-450-million-of-assets-from-three-russian-oligarchs/ worth of assets from three Russian oligarchs.

⚡️4 people remain missing https://kyivindependent.com/emergency-services-finish-operation-at-site-of-kharkiv-oblast-village-rocket-attack-4-people-still-missing/ in Hroza after rescue operation ends at missile attack site.

⚡️Media: Georgian Parliament proposes https://kyivindependent.com/media-georgian-parliament-proposes-law-banning-tents-during-protests-ruling-party-wants-to-avoid-a-ukrainian-euromaidan-scenario/ law banning tents during protests to avoid a 'Ukrainian Euromaidan' scenario.

⚡️FT: Moldovan president Maia Sandu says (https://kyivindependent.com/sandu-prigozhin-attempted-coup-in-moldova/) Prigozhin attempted coup in Moldova. [this was reported at the time]

A 14-year-old has died after discovering explosives near his family home in Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast on Oct. 6, according to Suspilne. https://kyivindependent.com/child-dies-after-finding-explosive-in-sumy-oblast-russian-shelling-continues/

Ukraine’s largest aircraft manufacturing company Antonov joined the Aerospace, Security and Defense Industries Association of Europe (ASD), the association said on Oct. 6. https://kyivindependent.com/antonov-becomes-first-ukrainian-company-to-join-european-aerospace-association/

This Week in Ukraine Ep. 28 – Why Ukraine has a problem with Elon Musk https://thisweekinukraine.podbean.com/?ref=kyivindependent.com

⚡️Shmyhal: More than 200 Ukrainian companies began developing drones https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-more-than-200-ukrainian-companies-began-developing-drones/

Another high day of personnel losses, and nearly 60 vehicles etc. Lower artillery than recently.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - OCT 7
■ Most land-based equipment losses this year
■ Tanks & 7-day APVs match 2023 record, vehicles close to it
■ Troop losses well above 7-day average
■ All this despite sligthly fewer strikes & engagements

UNITED24 Media Telegram

🇮🇱 In the morning, more than 5,000 missiles were fired at Israel in 20 minutes
The Hamas group, which controls the Gaza Strip, announced the start of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood against Israel.
As a result of shelling, there are dead and wounded. Israel's Defense Minister approved the call-up of reserve soldiers.

❗️The Israeli army announced the start of the "counter-terrorist" operation "Iron Swords" in the Gaza Strip

At least 22 Israeli citizens were killed today. About 300 more were injured, — local channel N12

North Korea has started supplying Russia with artillery for the war against Ukraine, — CBS News "It is not yet clear whether this transfer is part of a new long-term supply chain or a more limited batch. It is also unclear what North Korea is receiving in exchange for these weapons," the report said.

The USA expels two Russian diplomats in response to similar actions by Moscow

The US blacklisted 49 companies that supplied US-made microcircuits to Russia, — Reuters.
These are mainly companies from China (42), as well as Finland, Germany, India, Türkiye, Great Britain and the UAE. [ah, more info then]

The UN is sending a mission to the village of Hroza in the Kharkiv region to collect information about yesterday's missile attack, which claimed 52 lives.

For 2023, the Netherlands has reserved €2.5 billion for Ukraine.

Slovakian authorities announced a complete suspension of military aid to Ukraine, — Politico
Earlier, the Ministry of Defense of the country considered the possibility of sending a new aid package.

💥 The Russian media informs that in the temporarily occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region, a car with a deputy of “United Russia” was blown up
We are talking about MP Vladimir Malov. According to Kremlin media, he was hospitalized in serious condition.
According to the occupiers, Malov was "building a new life" in Nova Kakhovka. [holding Ukraine safely is going to be a different matter from taking it]

Estonian volunteer organizations Vaba Ukraina ("Free Ukraine") and Ukraina Abi ("Help Ukraine") came under fire in Ukraine on Friday during a Russian missile attack, Vaba Ukraina reported, without specifying the location of the events, but publishing photos of the destruction.
According to the organization, their joint convoy with Ukraina Abi was hit by a missile, and the Russian Iskander missile fell 20 meters from them.
As a result of the attack, all vehicles were destroyed, but the volunteers were not injured.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

This winter, Russians will try to destroy the Ukrainian energy system. Next week, we will record the current preparations in the regions for winter, - President Zelensky.

🇺🇸🇵🇱The US offers Poland to hand over part of its existing Patriot systems to Ukraine in exchange for Washington to supply Warsaw with Israeli-made Iron Dome anti-missile defense systems, — Politico

🤡Russian State Duma deputy Anna Kuznetsova is rushing to you with an amazing story
"Our fighters, liberating Sviatohirsk, found in the orphanage documents on the sale of children. There are references to British PMCs. One of the payers was the company Coca-Cola", - said the Deputy Speaker of the Russian State Duma.
Kuznetsova added that 7% of Ukraine's budget consists of revenues from the market of "black transplantology". [Ie, organ transplants]

Usual proviso: these info graphics are not always entirely accurate.

A giant inflatable rectum has been installed in a shopping center in Yekaterinburg, Russia.
And Moydodyr (a Russian fairy tale character) invites you to enter it.

It's Putin's birthday today, what do you wish him?

I can’t help but think the long arm of Iran’s foreign policy are present in the current Israeli crisis.

Be careful on Twitter X there are some really awful videos

It's Putin's birthday today, what do you wish him?

A giant inflated rectum

DancesWithDucks
It's Putin's birthday today, what do you wish him?

Linking to a completely different thread in another part of Mumsnet, how about a Grade 4 inoperable glioblastoma?

Failing that, ingrowing toenails, and piles.

It's Putin's birthday today, what do you wish him?

I wish that he would light the candle with the handle on the gateau from the chateau.

I wish for him everything he's brought on others.

A slow and painful death, while he is conscious enough to know that he has been abandoned by his lackeys and yes men

The escalation in violence between Israel and Palestine is horrific. On a side note Putin must be rubbing his hands together with glee that the World’s short attention span and sense of horror has been diverted.

Conflicts around the globe should highlight the case that, with the exception of the US, cuts to defence spending due to “peace dividend” have been woefully misguided.

Acts of terror and aggression highlight that democracies need to increase defence spending in many areas including cyber warfare. Ultimately this means armies will be built back stronger and Putin et al will be very disappointed.

Maybe a conspiracy theory but given that Russia and Iran have reasonable relations at least in terms of military trade to what extent have Iran provoked a crisis in the middle East to divert attention away from Ukraine? Many of Israel's enemies have ties to Russia so it won't harm Russia's interests to have a potential escalation in the middle East to divert the Wests attention to. We may see 'bad things' from Israel in the coming weeks during its ground inclusion of Gaza in terms of civilian casualties so Russia can engage in some sickening 'what aboutery'. There is also the potential for oil and gas prices to rise again in Russia's favour.

There is also the question of media conflict prioritization in its reporting.

to what extent have Iran provoked a crisis in the middle East to divert attention away from Ukraine?

It's seems to be considered by many much more likely to be an Iranian response to improving relations between the likes of Saudi and Israel.

@notimagain

I agree there are many factors to this and it may be Russia is a bit part player geopliticaly but I don't think this diversion helps Ukraine.

I was reminded of the sickening sights of Russian jets targeting civilian buildings e.g. hospitals and art centres and it worries me that if we see similar scenes from Gaza (even though there is not deliberate targeting) Russia may be able to claim that this shows in any war civilians are a casualty and if Russians can be accused of war crimes why not Israel?

even though the middle East was was not started by Russia it unfortunatly will led to a world focus elsewhere at least for a while.If it's shown that CIA resources were primarily focused on Ukraine and Gaza slipped under the radar then the US will be asking quesrions. There will be a huge amount of support for Israel in the US and maybe it's people will.want a solution to this upcoming war quickly not least as terrorism has obvious resonances in the US.

this also allows Russia to grand stand in the UK and in a laughingly hypocritical manner seem to find peace in this region of the world. Basically at a geopolitical level this really does muddy the waters.

Oh I agree it doesn't help Ukraine one bit but I think that's a secondary effect of events in Israel/Gaza, not the main intent

At the risk of going off topic briefly and for what it's worth one bit of analysis/opinion here...I know obviously there are other opinons out there:

"I can only speculate—I’m still in shock, quite honestly. But I think you have to consider the context at this moment. The Arab world is coming to terms with Israel. Saudi Arabia is talking about normalizing relations with Israel. As part of that potential deal, the United States is pressing Israel to make concessions to the Palestinian Authority—Hamas’s enemy. So this was an opportunity for Hamas and its Iranian backers to disrupt the whole process,"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise

Interestingly someone suggested having a Gaza thread similar to this long running thread elsewhere but given there is a strength of opinion on Palestinian oppression and Israeli right to defence of probably would be divisive.

In contrast with the Ukraine conflict there is only one unambiguous aggressor but the concern is that Gaza may tend to put in people's minds that conflicts are not just the fault of one side i.e. years of Palestinian poor living conditions and heavy handed security led to the current fighting. The Russians I fear will want to take advantage of the situation by pointing out the causes of conflict are complex, there are wrongs on both sides yada yada......

I am concerned that the UK meeting today allows the big geopolitical players including Russia and China to talk about global or at least regional security without mention of Russia's egregious offensive against Ukraine. What you don't need in any sense is that the world is 'moving on ' from Ukraine as that I would presume is one of Russia's aims.

UN

Listening to Newscast and the BBC team are travelling from Kyiv to Israel, hoping it doesn’t say everything about leaving the Ukraine war behind.

What's really, really odd here is that apparently there was NO intelligence that this was going to happen.

This is inexplicable.

1 - either Hamas kept absolutely everything to itself. Hard to believe.

2 - Israel, the US, 5 Eyes all failed to hear anything. Very odd.

3 - Certain people within Mossad etc knew, but kept quiet. Which is inexplicable.

Regarding Russia, Gary Kasperov said there will be layers and layers of thought going on into plans and potential outcomes plus opportunism. (he said it neater).

It seems possible, but by no means certain, to me that it's odd to have had the recent outbreak of coups in Central Africa largely in countries where Wagner is present (I believe, would have to check that); the powderkeg of Serbian forces building up on the Kosovan border and now this, all in a very few weeks. In C. Africa Wagner has a presence; Serbia is pro-Russia and Hamas are very closely allied to Iran, who is oh so close to Russia now.

If, if there's anything in this theory - Russia creating all this chaos partially (but only partially) to distract the West from Ukraine, then it seems unlikely they'd have had much of a direct hand in this Hamas disaster. But they could well have worked with Iran on planning.

A major Jewish leader left Russia after the invasion and encouraged others to too, saying that he believed the atmosphere was becoming more hostile. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/30/exiled-chief-rabbi-jews-should-leave-russia-while-they-can-pinchas-goldschmidt-war-ukraine

Alternatively ...

I wonder if some of the Islamic State terrorists went to Hamas? Both believe in a highly fundamentalist, violent sort of Islam. They also have battle training and experience.

Or some mix of the two. I find it quite feasible Russia knew this was coming and helped in some way, but even more likely that IS fighters are involved in this.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7-2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine.
• Several key sources within the Russian information space shifted the focus of their daily coverage to the situation in Israel on October 7, which may impact the information environment around the war in Ukraine in the coming days or weeks.
• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 7 and reportedly advanced in both directions.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian rear areas and port infrastructure on the night of October 6-7.
• The Russian government approved legislation temporarily restricting the border checkpoints that Ukrainian citizens can use to enter Russia from third countries, likely focused on Belarus and the Baltic States, likely in response to continued concern over the security of Russian border regions and possible Ukrainian infiltration efforts.
• Belarusian officials are leveraging international partnerships in an attempt to legitimize Belarus’ role in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children.
• Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky stated that Russian “patriotic” communities remain vulnerable to division due to Russian officials’ failure to consolidate society, particularly after Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s June 24 rebellion.
• The Russian MoD highlighted the production of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on October 7, supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements about successful tests of the missile on October 5 as part of a continued nuclear brinkmanship information operation.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas on October 7.
• Ukrainian partisan activity reportedly killed a United Russia official in occupied Kherson Oblast.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

U.S. President Joe Biden plans to ask Congress for the largest amount of aid to Ukraine yet, possibly up to $100 billion, The Telegraph reported on Oct. 7. kyivindependent.com/biden-may-seek-100-billion-aid-package-for-ukraine/
Biden hopes that a "one-and-done" funding package will allow him to bypass the deadlock with congressional Republicans and free up enough aid for Ukraine to last until the 2024 presidential election.

⚡️Russia deploying https://kyivindependent.com/russia-deploying-reserves-north-of-bakhmut-to-deter-ukrainian-counteroffensive/ 'all available' reserves north of Bakhmut.
Russia is deploying reserve forces north of Bakhmut in an attempt to deter Ukraine's advancing counteroffensive in Donetsk Oblast, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in eastern Ukraine said on Oct. 7.

⚡️Military: Russia launches https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-launches-over-700-strikes-on-lyman-kupiansk-axis-in-one-day/ over 700 strikes on Kupiansk-Lyman axis in one day.

⚡️Russia claims https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-missile-attack-on-crimea/ missile attacks on Crimea.

⚡️ Death toll in Hamas attack on Israel climbs https://kyivindependent.com/death-toll-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-climbs-to-300/ to 300.

⚡️ Zelensky, world leaders condemn Hamas attack https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministry-opens-operational-headquarters-to-help-ukrainians-in-israel-after-hamas-attack/ on Israel.

Ukraine, Japan start https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-and-japan-start-negotiations-on-bilateral-security-guarantees-agreement/ negotiations on bilateral security guarantees agreement.

'Every family affected’: Devastated village copes with aftermath of Russian strike on funeral https://kyivindependent.com/every-family-affected-in-russian-stike-on-hroza-village-in-ukraine/
The village of Hroza had a pre-war population of around 300 residents. Since many have fled since the start of the full-scale invasion, the attack on Oct. 5 killed roughly half of the residents who have stayed.

⚡️Zelensky: 1 Ukrainian possibly killed https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-possible-death-of-1-ukrainian-in-israel-information-being-verified/ in Israel, search for 2 others underway.

The Ukrainian government will provide housing to 2,400 veterans and their families in 2023, Veterans' Affairs Minister Yuliia Laputina said on Oct. 8, as reported by Ukrinform. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-provide-housing-to-2-400-veterans/

Ukraine Business Roundup — Issue 4 https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-business-roundup-issue-4/
In this week’s issue: Ukraine holds its largest annual tech event, IT Arena, with events, presentations, and panels about topics such as generative AI (ChatGPT is an example) and the role of titanium in revolutionary robotics.
Meanwhile, several leaked and public documents suggest that Washington will soon insist Ukraine gets its act together on corruption if it wants to keep the funding flowing.

⚡️Governor: Russian overnight attack on Kherson Oblast injures 11 https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russian-overnight-attack-on-kherson-oblast-injures-11-including-infant/ including 9-month-old baby.

https://twitter.com/ragnarbjartur/status/1710940162178367978

WAR IN #UKRAINE - OCT 8
■ Records in 2023: 7-day losses for land-based equipment, tanks & APVs
■ Troop losses remain above 7-day average
■ Fewer strikes reported but most combat engagements since May 20