Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

981 replies

MagicFox · 20/08/2023 12:43

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

**

--

  1. Agreed thread guidance:
  1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
  1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
  1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful
OP posts:
Thread gallery
341
CaveMum · 24/08/2023 08:37

@notimagain oh I don’t want to see bodies at all believe me, but I mean the Russians will want to parade all their evidence in order to dampen down any talk of him having “got away”. If they can’t produce the evidence then there will be talk (correct or not) that he’s slipped away and could be plotting against Putin from afar.

Putin is so paranoid, he will want evidence for himself and sharing it with the world plays into his “no one gets away with crossing me” narrative.

notimagain · 24/08/2023 08:46

@CaveMum

True.

One problem here is the conspiracy theorists are going to have a field day if the Russians cannot produce compelling visual evidence…….

DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 09:01

Sandunesandseashells · 24/08/2023 07:43

Wow! Having written my last post, I have indeed got edit as the bottom option in the 3 dots!

You have?! oh for that feature? Is it a paid one?

DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 09:12

If you take the conspiracy theory pov, assuming Prigozhin was not on the plane:

Prigozhin's close friend Valery Chekalov (source: Chris_O wiki) who was responsible for the food supply contracts (remember the Russian can of stew that was literally clear water?) is supposed to be the one who's been emptying the Wagner treasury.

He was on the plane.

What if he was squirrelling the funds away for Prig? Prig could vanish with enough funds for an unobtrusive new project. He can do unobtrusive; not many had heard of him before he hit the limelight due to the invasion.

If you go down that path, how many of the bodies on that flight really were who the authorities are saying they were? Some, none, all? Could several of Prig's associates have quietly survived?

This is all conspiracy stuff and perhaps so far fetched it's pinging Pluto, but Gary Kasperov's comment "believe nothing you hear and only half that you see" seems an appropriate one - he knows Russia!

Perhaps at a long stretch it's actually still possible that he might pop up in Africa with a fanfare saying Ha, I'm alive and head of Wagner!

(Personally I don't know what to think, though it does seem odd that Prigozhin, who knew Putin and his vengeful streak well, would get on a plane with all his mates. Though perhaps he never dreamed Putin would shoot him down out of the sky so publically)

DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 09:17

Sidhant Sibal
AT sidhant

Big BREAKING: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE to become full members of BRICS from 1st January 2024 announces South African President

Some of those are very big economies. The West's dominance is waning.

https://twitter.com/sidhant

MMBaranova · 24/08/2023 09:27

I’m too busy with work to follow this today. Observations before it takes over:

Prigozhin was probably on the plane, but you never know.

An internal flight between Russia’s capital and its former capital, away from the border with Ukraine, can be downed by a locally fired missile. It seems.

Dipping in and out out Russian social media, there’s a mix of sadness and anger over Prigozhin’s presumed death. Some do recognise his evil, but in an approving way.

For all the troll farms and the electoral success of his party, I haven’t seen a single post from what appears to be an individual praising Putin. That’s in any way, in any context.

DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 09:30

@blueshoes, thanks again! It was nice to have a day off and leave it in your safe hands :)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting senior Wagner commanders over Tver Oblast.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner private military company (PMC) and weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organization.
  • Prigozhin was likely attempting to counter the Russian MoD’s and the Kremlin’s destruction of Wagner and Wagner’s future remains uncertain.
  • Putin almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane.
  • Putin's almost certain order for the Russian MoD to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane is likely a public attempt to reassert his dominance and exact vengeance for the humiliation that the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion on June 24 caused Putin and the Russian MoD.
  • Specific individuals who may have planned to oppose Putin, the Kremlin, or the MoD have likely taken note of Prigozhin’s ultimate fate and other recent measures to reassert the Kremlin’s backing for the senior Russian military leadership.
  • The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to deflect overt responsibility for Prigozhin’s assassination away from Putin and the Russian military.
  • Further tactically significant Ukrainian gains in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast are widening the Ukrainian breach of Russian defensive lines in the area and threatening Russian secondary lines of defense.
  • Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian S-400 air defense system in Crimea on August 23. [some spectacular footage of it going boom]
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on August 23 and did not make any confirmed advances.

Extra:
[A] source claimed that GRU Deputy Head (Head of the Special Activities Service) Colonel General Andrei Averyanov led the effort to completely block Wagner from operating in Africa and that there were plans to create and train an army corps of more than 20,000 people as Wagner replacements. The source added that Prigozhin was deeply opposed to these efforts and “made every effort to prevent them.”

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 09:33

Regarding Prigozhin, nothing has been heard from his family as far as I'm aware. Might have expected some statement, even if it's only to express grief.

There does seem to have been an entirely innocent air hostess on board :/

DrBlackbird · 24/08/2023 09:38

Any thoughts anyone on how or if Prigozhin’s death will affect Russia’s war on Ukraine? Will it weaken Russian efforts? Wagner forces were more adapt weren’t they?

RedToothBrush · 24/08/2023 09:44

DrBlackbird · 24/08/2023 09:38

Any thoughts anyone on how or if Prigozhin’s death will affect Russia’s war on Ukraine? Will it weaken Russian efforts? Wagner forces were more adapt weren’t they?

Russian nationalisation of Wagner is good for the Ruble.

DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 09:52

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Zelensky's address on Ukraine's 32nd Independence Day https://kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-address-on-ukraines-32nd-independence-day/
"Today we celebrate the 32nd anniversary of our independence — the independence of Ukraine. This is a value for each of us. And this is what we are fighting for. And everyone is important in this fight. Because this is a fight for something that is important to everyone. An independent Ukraine," Zelensky said in the address.

A private plane has reportedly crashed in Russia's Tver Oblast, with the Wagner Group's boss Yevgeny Prigozhin listed as one of the passengers, the state-owned news agency TASS reported on Aug. 23. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-prigozhins-private-jet-crashes-in-russia/

⚡️ Russian media: 10 bodies from private plane crash in Tver Oblast taken for examination. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-10-bodies-from-prigozhins-plane-crash-taken-for-examination/
The Moscow Times reported that Prigozhin's phone was found at the crash site, although his body has not yet been identified.

⚡️National Resistance Center: Wagner convoys head https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-wagner-convoys-head-to-russia-after-fatal-crash/ to Russia after fatal crash. [don't think this has been confirmed or explained if accurate]

⚡️CNN: Former CIA director Leon Panetta says https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-former-cia-director-says-russia-will-try-to-take-charge-of-wagner/ Russia will try to take charge of Wagner.

⚡️ISW: Prigozhin left https://kyivindependent.com/isw-prigozhin-left-africa-in-haste-due-to-russian-interference/ Africa in haste due to Russian interference.

⚡️Ukraine wipes out https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-wipes-out-russian-missile-system-in-occupied-crimea/ Russian missile system in occupied Crimea.

⚡️ Intelligence chief: Russia has 27 operable Tu-22M3 bombers left https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-chief-russia-has-27-operable-tu-22m3-bombers-left-after-latest-strikes/ following recent strikes.

⚡️Russia launches 20 drones overnight https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-20-drones-overnight-strikes-odesa-grain-storage/strikes Odesa grain storage.

⚡️Lithuanian, Portuguese presidents arrive https://kyivindependent.com/lithuanian-portuguese-presidents-arrive-in-kyiv/ in Kyiv.

⚡️Finnish PM arrives in Kyiv https://kyivindependent.com/finnish-pm-arrives-in-kyiv-18th-military-aid-package-to-be-announced/ 18th military aid package to be announced.

⚡️Lithuania to deliver NASAMS launchers to Ukraine in September.
https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-deliver-nasams-to-ukraine-in-september/ will deliver the previously pledged NASAMS launchers to Ukraine in September, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said during his visit to Kyiv on Aug. 23.

Russia wants to offer to swap the assets of foreign investors frozen in Russia for some of the Russian assets frozen by the West, the Interfax news agency reported on Aug. 22, citing Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-wants-to-unfreeze-swap-assets-with-foreign-investors/

⚡️ Shmyhal: https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-wants-to-use-frozen-russian-assets-for-crimea-reconstruction/ Ukraine is looking for ways to confiscate Russian assets frozen in the West and use them to pay for recovery and reconstruction in Crimea and other parts of Ukraine, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Aug. 23.

⚡️Government allocates https://kyivindependent.com/government-allocates-124-million-for-reconstruction-efforts-on-kakhovka-hydroelectric-plant/ $124 million towards reconstruction efforts on Kakhovka Hydroelectric Plant.

Ukraine is set to receive 61 F-16 fighter jets from Denmark and the Netherlands in six or seven months, says Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. [so, confirmed 61 F16's promised in total]

From Ragnar: 2,188 Russian tanks independently visually confirmed to have been lost as of 31st July; Ukr claims 4, 211 in all. 52% overall were constructed before the end of the Soviet Union; but in July that ratio rises to 64%

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 09:58

DrBlackbird · 24/08/2023 09:38

Any thoughts anyone on how or if Prigozhin’s death will affect Russia’s war on Ukraine? Will it weaken Russian efforts? Wagner forces were more adapt weren’t they?

Wagner was gone from Ukraine. It won't have much effect, probably.

Tinkerbyebye · 24/08/2023 10:18

DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 09:01

You have?! oh for that feature? Is it a paid one?

@DancesWithDucks

no but it’s not on the app yet. And I understand there’s only a short time you can edit

HQ posted about it a couple of days ago

check the three dots

Igotjelly · 24/08/2023 10:32

I seem to think that today is Ukrainian Independence Day. 🇺🇦

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 24/08/2023 10:45

Lots about this on Twitter:

⚡️Footage of combat operations of a Ukrainian State Intelligence unit on the territory of temporarily occupied #Crimea.

x.com/kyivpost/status/1694644418878267426?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

PerkingFaintly · 24/08/2023 10:46

Happy Independence Day to Ukrainians! 🇺🇦

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 24/08/2023 10:49

All Ukrainian special forces back to safety:

x.com/glasnostgone/status/1694643325255487871?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

CaveMum · 24/08/2023 10:54

For those asking about what this means for Wagner and it’s other activities, it’s worth looking at this newsletter from June (I think I shared it on the last thread too) which outlines the depth of their involvement, and financial assets, in Africa. Obviously since then there has been the Niger coup which probably adds more $$$ to the pot.

I’m sure there are plenty of Putin’s pals lining up to get a piece of the action.

https://theafricabrief.beehiiv.com/subscribe?ref=Zu9BoqFmWH

"What does the continent known as Africa possess that the rest — or a greater part — of the globe does not have already in superabundance?" Wole Soyinka

The Africa Brief

"What does the continent known as Africa possess that the rest — or a greater part — of the globe does not have already in superabundance?" Wole Soyinka

https://theafricabrief.beehiiv.com/subscribe?ref=Zu9BoqFmWH

PerkingFaintly · 24/08/2023 11:17

Regarding the idea that Utkin and Prig wouldn't genuinely be on the same plane because it's just too obviously stupid...

Not as stupid as starting a rebellion and then stopping it.

I mean, I'm just some know-nothing numpty sitting in the UK, and even I realised that was Prig sealing his own death warrant.

So while we don't know for sure that Vlad got him this time, his decision-making certainly hasn't been the best.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 24/08/2023 11:58

Happy Independence Day!

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
MagicFox · 24/08/2023 12:25

Prigozhin and Gerasimov both "missing" 🤔

OP posts:
DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 13:00

During the third summit of the Crimean Platform, attended by representatives from 63 countries, several key points were addressed:

▫️Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau unveiled a fresh package of sanctions aimed at Russia, specifically targeting the nuclear industry.

▫️Moldova's Prime Minister Rechan highlighted the strategic significance of the Crimean Peninsula, describing it as a foothold for Russian military operations beyond Ukraine. Rechan called for increased air defense system deliveries to Ukraine.

▫️Japanese Prime Minister Kishida pledged a substantial $7 billion aid package to Ukraine, while also emphasizing Japan's alignment with sanctions against Russia.

▫️President of the European Council Michel disclosed plans for a comprehensive multi-year financial support scheme for Ukraine amounting to over 50 billion euros. He also highlighted preparations for talks concerning Ukraine's potential accession to the European Union.

▫️President Zelenskyy outlined the upcoming Defense Industries Forum, scheduled for this fall, aimed at fostering cooperation between defense enterprises from partner nations.

The summit discussions reflected a collaborative effort among various countries to address the situation in Ukraine and bolster its defense, while also providing significant financial and political support.

DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 13:05

UNITED24 Media Telegram

⚡️ Prigozhin's body was officially identified in the morgue, the media reports.
He was recognized by one of the commanders of the "Wagner" PMC. The main feature was the absence of a finger.
Dmytriy Utkin, the second manager of "Wagner", was also recognized in the morgue by his height and tattoos.

The head of the German Foreign Ministry, Annalena Baerbock, has highlighted the extensive minefields present in Ukraine, some of which are comparable in size to West Germany. Baerbock's statements emphasize the critical need for demining equipment to address this pressing challenge.

Putin said that Russia has overtaken Germany and is among the five largest economies in the world. He stated this at a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects.

Units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense carried out landings in Crimea as part of a special operation at Cape Tarkhankut, confirmed intelligence representative Yusov.
special forces on watercraft landed on the shore in the area of the settlements of Olenivka and Mayak

☢️ Russia continues to transfer nuclear weapons to Belarus, — Polish President Duda

Ukraine has successfully launched the production of 120-mm mortar rounds in collaboration with two NATO countries, as confirmed by the press release from Ukrainian Armored Technology LLC. The company reports that significant quantities of these new mortar rounds are already being delivered to the Ukrainian military. These rounds are proving highly effective in targeting enemy personnel and equipment, neutralizing shelters, and disrupting firing positions. Also the state concern "Ukroboronprom" is also involved in the production of 120 mm caliber mines in partnership with another NATO member country.

⚡️Croatia will allocate a new package of military aid to Ukraine for 30 million euros

❗️ Norway will transfer F-16 fighters to Ukraine, — TV2

🇳🇴 The Norwegian government has decided to transfer anti-aircraft missiles for IRIS-T systems to Ukraine

On September 18, the UN International Court of Justice will hold a public hearing on Ukraine's lawsuit against the Russian Federation. The hearing will last until September 27 and will be held at the Peace Palace in The Hague. 32 countries are involved in the case "Ukraine v. Russian Federation".

Ukraine is preparing the creation of the Baltic-Black Sea Defense Union, — President Zelenskyy
"The task has been set to prepare a security alliance together with NATO countries and the countries of the Black Sea coast.
So that we have joint protection of the Azov, Black Sea, and Baltic areas," the president said.

In Crimea, the coastal anti-ship missile complex "Bastion" was hit, — adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andryushchenko.
"The complex is one of the carriers of the Onyx missile, which the Russians use to strike Ukraine. Radar stations were also damaged. There were seven explosions in total," Andryushchenko said.

⚡️60-70% of marine drones are destroyed by the Russian Federation, but this is an effective weapon because 30% accurately hit the target, — Budanov

⚡️ Ukrainian intelligence lured a Russian Mi-8 helicopter with a pilot to Ukraine. This intelligence operation lasted more than 6 months.
Along with the pilot, there were two crew members on board who did not know where the helicopter was actually going.
The crew was flying between two airbases and transporting parts for Su-27 and Su-30 fighters. The pilot and his family are now in Ukraine.

Russia's announcement of sinking a Ukrainian boat near Zmiinyi Island has been refuted by Ukrainian authorities, who categorize these statements as false. Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that a Russian aircraft had successfully targeted the American high-speed military vessel "Willard Sea Force," carrying an amphibious assault group from the Armed Forces of Ukraine

⚡️ Russian airlines have purchased $1.2 billion worth of spare parts in circumvention of sanctions. The parts were imported through intermediary companies in Tajikistan, the UAE, Türkiye, China, and Kyrgyzstan, Reuters reported.

In Czech Republic, the assets of the family of Boris Obnosov, the chief rocket engineer of Russia, have been frozen. This includes the seizure of 14 apartments registered under his son-in-law's name. It was recently revealed by journalists that Boris Obnosov, who leads the Tactical Missiles Corporation responsible for producing missiles for potential strikes, possesses a considerable amount of high-value real estate in Czech Republic — a NATO member country.

Britain will provide Ukraine with a $245 million loan to increase its nuclear potential, — Sky News.
It is reported that the goal is to gradually free Ukraine from dependence on Russian nuclear fuel and services.

❗️Jake Sullivan, the National Security Adviser to the US President, ... refuted assertions that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reached an impasse. He highlighted that Ukraine is methodically and systematically reclaiming territories, indicating that progress is being made despite the complex situation on the ground.

The number of victims of a Russian attack on the school in Romny has increased to four. Rescuers retrieved the bodies of the school director, deputy director, secretary and librarian from under the rubble.

❗️Official report of the Russian Aviation Agency: According to the airline, the following passengers were on board the Embraer-135 (EBM-135BJ):

Propustin Sergey
Makaryan Evgeniy
Totmin Alexander
Chekalov Valeriy [head of Wagner's Security Service].
Utkin Dmitry
Matuseev Nikolay
Prigozhin Evgeniy

Crew members:
Levshin Aleksei, commander;
Karimov Rustam, co-pilot;
Raspopova Kristina, flight attendant.

The flight of the Embraer-135 (EBM-135BJ) aircraft was carried out based on a permit for airspace use, issued per the established procedure.

Reports indicate that significant disruptions in mobile internet connectivity are being experienced in the vicinity of the "Wagner" PMC camp in Tsel village and the Osypovych district of Belarus. [post Prigozhin's plane's crash]

Crimean anti-ship missile complex "Bastion" explosion.

Claimed location of Ukrainian forces raid in Crimea.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 24/08/2023 14:03

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Baykar Makina Company donates Bayraktar TV2 strike UAV to the DIU for Independence Day

📊In July 2022, Ukraine introduced a visa regime with Russia. Since then, only 62 Russian citizens have received visas to enter Ukraine, mostly to reunite with their families.

The UK will recognize the Wagner Group as a terrorist organization within a few weeks, the FT reports, citing sources in the British government.
This decision will effectively ban the PMC under British law, making it a criminal offense to belong to it, encourage its support, provide assistance or use its logo. [seems as if it might not be a pressing matter any more!]

Volodymyr Zelensky held a briefing following the Crimean Platform summit. Main points:
📍On the counteroffensive in the southern direction: "Everything is mined there. Very often, people are walking to avoid losing the scarce armored vehicles. If we had it in reserve, we could take the risk. First of all, people are important, then equipment. [...] No one is complaining, everyone is fighting."
📍Zelensky rejected the idea of redeploying troops from east to south, as some American media reported, citing military experts.
"Does anyone realize how many people there are, how many occupiers there are in the east? Approximately 200 thousand. [...] Let's take our armed forces from there and move them somewhere. But after that, a couple of days, and [the Russians will take] Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, then they will go to Pavlohrad, Dnipro, cut off the banks. But we will not allow this, and let all the analysts in the world not even count on it."
📍On more intensive mobilization. "To be honest, the military asked me to do this to give them the opportunity to mobilize more. I can't tell you anything else. The issue of military registration and enlistment offices, the very important issue of medical commissions at military registration and enlistment offices - we need to speed up the processes as quickly as possible, put things in order, and then start talking about increasing the number of people to be mobilized."
📍 When asked how long Ukraine "can still hold out," Zelensky replied: "We have no chance to do anything else but continue to defend our state and de-occupy our territory. We are fighting for what is ours."

❗️❗️In case of Prigozhin's death, the PMC "Wagner" has developed a plan of action, which is launched immediately, reports the pro-Kremlin Readovka. The mechanism is introduced automatically, what it consists of - it is unknown. The publication's source says that in any case, it will be "very bad news". [Can't say Im holding my breath over it]

The New York Post called https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1694401008326123679 Prigozhin a dissident.
Lol

Alexander Lukashenko congratulated the "brotherly Ukrainian people" on the country's independence day and wished peace to reign on the Ukrainian land.

In Avdiivka, Donetsk region, where approximately 40,000 people lived until 2014, 1,691 people now live. Most of them are elderly, although there are also young people under 30.
These figures were provided by Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdiivka city military administration.

❗️❗️Dmitry Utkin, Prigozhin's right-hand man, was also on board the crashed plane, according to the Russian media. [First time I saw this pic I thought it was someone half-way through being made up as an orc extra for a film]

Many small holes can be seen on the downed Prigozhin plane.
The photo was posted by Russian telegram channels. This is what the damage from air defense munitions looks like.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Swipe left for the next trending thread