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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

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Thread gallery
129
Surplus2requirements · 21/02/2023 12:12

PerkingFaintly · 21/02/2023 11:43

That's interesting, Surplus2requirements. Installed by whom?

Being installed by other forces is a common career path for dictators, but I've always had the impression Putin installed himself. Although he did eventually create an unspoken bargain with the oligarchs that they would get the freedom to corruptly gain riches as long as they left political power to him.

Sorry i don't remember the details, I'm sure someone here will, but basically he was selected as a controllable grey man by the Kremlin elite.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/02/2023 14:48

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2023

Key Takeaways

US President Joe Biden visited Kyiv on February 20 ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine signaling continued US commitment to supporting Ukraine in its efforts to liberate its territory.

Ukrainian officials continue to respond to statements made by unspecified US defense officials on the pace and prospects of the war as it approaches the one-year mark.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the formal integration of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics’ (DNR/LNR) militias into the Russian Armed Forces on February 19 in response to growing criticism about reported command changes within the proxy units.

The decision to reorganize the DNR and LNR militias amidst an ongoing offensive likely indicates that the Russian MoD does not understand the scale of the challenges of integrating irregular forces into a professional military during intensive combat operations.

The restructuring of proxy militias suggests that the Russian military command is trying to achieve all its desired reforms while the Russian MoD has the favor of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian military command has likely cut off Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s independent access to artillery shells and heavy weaponry as part of the effort to professionalize the Russian conventional forces.

Prigozhin may have misrepresented the devastating impact of the lack of artillery ammunition on Wagner to mask his true frustrations with Wagner’s inability to have and operate its own artillery systems.

Chechen Republic head Kadyrov likely attempted to assuage Prigozhin’s possible anger at Kadyrov’s likely refusal to join Prigozhin’s informational campaign against the Russian MoD.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US government is concerned about China’s possible consideration of sending lethal aid to Russia.

The Russian MoD likely responded to a call for the Russian military to systematically target electrical infrastructure supporting Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPPs) by setting possible informational conditions for strikes aimed at forcing emergency shutdowns at these NPPs.

Russian forces continued ground assaults along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut as well as in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and western Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continue to militarize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces may be struggling to repair air defense systems deployed in Ukraine.

Russian occupation authorities are using an "anti-terrorist" commission to justify seizing and nationalizing assets in occupied Crimea for economic and military benefit.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/02/2023 15:01

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Media: Italy is open to sending fighter jets to Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-italy-is-open-to-sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-alongside-other-western-allies) alongside other Western allies.
Italy is prepared to send up to five fighter jets to Ukraine if other Western allies start doing so, the Italian newspaper la Repubblica reported.
According to the article, Italy does not want to be the first ally to send fighter jets "for political reasons.

⚡️Survey: Over 90% (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/survey-ukrainians-have-an-overall-positive-view-of-us) of Ukrainians have an overall positive view of US.

⚡️AP: Japan pledges $5.5 billion (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ap-japan-pledges-5-5-billion-aid-package-for-ukraine) aid package for Ukraine.

⚡️Reznikov: Next Ramstein summit to take place (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reznikov-next-ramstein-summit-to-take-place-in-mid-march) in mid-March.

⚡️ Navalny urges (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/navalny-urges-restoration-of-1991-borders-reparation-payments-to-ukraine-by-russia) restoration of 1991 borders, reparation payments to Ukraine by Russia.

⚡️PM Shmyhal: IMF may launch (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/imf-ukraine-may-need-up-to-5-billion-financial-aid-monthly-in-2023) $15 billion program for Ukraine.

⚡️Over 30 countries urge IOC (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/over-30-countries-call-on-ioc-not-to-allow-russian-belarusian-athletes-to-compete-in-olympics) to continue ban on Russian, Belarusian athletes competing in Olympics.

One year later: How Russia came to fail in Ukraine, battle after battle (kyivindependent.com/national/one-year-later-how-russia-came-to-a-fail-in-ukraine-battle-after-battle)
Feb. 24, 2022, was supposed to bring the existence of a 40-million European nation to an end.

⚡️EU launches Ukraine’s digital transformation (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-launches-ukraines-digital-transformation-support-project-worth-17-4-million-euros) support project worth 17.4 million euros.

⚡️Reuters: Belarus plans to form 100,000-150,000 strong volunteer military force (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-belarus-plans-to-form-100-000-150-000-volunteer-military-force).

Investigations: Leaked document reveals alleged Kremlin plan to take over Belarus by 2030 (kyivindependent.com/investigations/leaked-document-reveals-alleged-kremlin-plan-to-take-over-belarus-by-2030)

⚡️35,000 customers still without electricity (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/35-000-customers-still-without-electricity-in-kharkiv-oblast) in Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️European Council extends sanctions (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/european-council-extends-sanctions-against-russia-until-2024) against Russia until 2024.

⚡️Putin: Russia suspends its participation in nuclear arms reduction treaty
Dictator Vladimir Putin said in his address to parliament on Feb. 21 that Russia is suspending its participation in the New START treaty with the U.S. on the reduction of strategic nuclear weapons.

⚡️Financial Times: (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sanctioned)
The Financial Times reported that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian state-backed mercenary Wagner Group, has brought in $250 million in assets over the past four years from oil, gas, diamond, and gold mining in countries such as Sudan and Syria.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/02/2023 15:10

❗️China published the "Conceptual document of the global security initiative", which proposed the main concepts, principles and mechanisms of cooperation between states

The main principles are spelled out in the document:

▫️Since 2014, the People's Republic of China has advocated the concept of common security, respect and protection of the security of each country, which can only be sustainable on the basis of morality, justice and right ideas.

▫️Respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, regardless of their size, strength and financial situation. "Their internal affairs do not tolerate external interference, their sovereignty and dignity must be respected, and their right to independently choose social systems and development paths must be supported."

▫️Adherence to the goals and principles of the UN Charter.

▫️Resolution of disagreements and disputes between countries should take place through dialogue and consultations — war and sanctions are not a principled solution to disputes.

▫️Security is more interconnected, transnational and diverse. Traditional and non-traditional security threats are intertwined. China encourages all countries to adhere to the principles of broad consultation, joint contribution and benefit in global governance.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/02/2023 15:14

UNITED24 Media Telegram

⚡️ So Joe Biden announced the overall transfer of 700 tanks and thousands of armored vehicles to Ukraine in cooperation with 50 partner countries
The US president also signed a new $500 million military aid package.
It included HIMARS missiles, JAVELIN anti-tank missile systems, artillery ammunition, anti-tank systems and aerial surveillance systems.

Biden was offered to meet with Zelenskyy at the border or in Lviv, but he chose Kyiv, – Rolling Stone with reference to a White House official

The EU has already adopted all the main sanctions against Russia, said the head of the European Council, Charles Michel
According to him, there are "not many things" that can be done. [except he says sanction the children of oligarchs etc]

Russia is preparing sabotage against critical infrastructure in the North Sea, — Reuters with reference to Dutch Intelligence
These are Internet cables, gas pipelines, and wind generators. The head of intelligence, General Jan Swillens, said that a Russian ship was discovered near one of these turbines in the Dutch part of the sea.

[I suspect that Russian sabotage of infrastructure and economic entities is going to rocket :/ ]

China supports the draft Russian resolution on the investigation of explosions at the "Nord Stream," – Deputy Ambassador of the People's Republic of China to the UN Zhang Jun

A new $460 million military aid package to Ukraine includes:
◾️additional ammunition for HIMARS MLRS
◾️155-mm artillery shells and 120-mm mortar shells
◾️four radar systems
◾️Additional Javelin anti-tank systems
◾️about 2 thousand anti-tank missiles
◾️four Bradley infantry fighting vehicles
◾️two tactical vehicles, Claymore anti-personnel mines, night vision devices, communications equipment, as well as medical equipment and equipment parts

Russia sells weapons at Abu Dhabi show despite sanctions over war in Ukraine, — AP

"Ukraine will have at least 2 battalions of Leopard-2 tanks and possibly 6-7 battalions of Leopard-1 tanks with ammunition," — Reznikov

Serbia rejects Russian fighter jets and will buy French ones, – President Vučić
According to Vučić, it has become impossible to keep Russian MiG-29s, the last batch of which Serbia received in 2017.

The EU deploys a civilian mission on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia is outraged
100 observers will work in the mission, half of whom will not have weapons, the EU Council reported.
The mission will contribute to the stabilization of the situation on the border and the normalization of relations between the countries. The duration of the mission is two years, it will be headed by the former head of the Federal Police Department in Stuttgart, Markus Ritter.
The spokeswoman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, said that Moscow views this mission as "an attempt to squeeze Russia out of the region."

G7 financial leaders to meet on February 23 to discuss measures against Russia that will affect its end of war in Ukraine, — Reuters

Putin may soon mobilize hundreds of thousands more in addition to the 300,000 already recruited, — NYT citing US intelligence

20 units of the Marder BMP for Ukraine will be ready by the end of March, — CEO of Rheinmetall

⚡️The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany urges its citizens not to visit Russia in the coming days and to be careful from February 20 to 26

If there is sufficient support from the West in Ukraine, which will arrive on time, this year the Armed Forces will be able to regain the initiative, — ISW

“We are not at war with the people of Ukraine,” Putin during his February 21 address

Key points from Putin's message to the Federal Assembly:

▫️ Russia was open to a constructive dialogue with the West and for many years offered to work on a joint security system. At the same time, the West was preparing the enslaved Ukraine for a great war, and today it recognizes this;

▫️We protect our homes and the lives of people, and the goal of the West is unlimited power;

▫️ The West declares perversion, including pedophilia, the norm of life, destroys its values, calls on priests to bless same-sex marriages;

▫️ The West seeks to turn the conflict "in" Ukraine into a phase of global confrontation;

▫️ The more long-range systems Ukraine gets, the further we will repel the threat;

▫️ Residents of Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson determined their own future, despite threats and terror, they decided to be with the Motherland;

▫️ Russia suspends its participation in the Strategic Offensive Weapons Treaty;

▫️ The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and Rosatom must ensure readiness for the test of Russian nuclear weapons if the USA does it first.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived in Kyiv by train on Tuesday around noon, – La Repubblica

There is no final decision regarding the admission of Russian and Belarusian athletes to the selection for the 2024 Olympics, – the IOC statement

Romania suspended the work of the Russian Center of Culture and Science in Bucharest due to manipulation of public opinion
"The center deliberately participated in actions to distort the perception of reality and historical truth at the level of public opinion in Romania. These actions have recently intensified and acquired new, especially serious accents," the ministry emphasized.

NATO has conducted a complete inventory of ammunition arsenals and will increase production volumes, — Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

They say this is the first photo of the American BMP Bradley in Ukraine ☝️

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
Surplus2requirements · 21/02/2023 15:18

So it looks like the campaign to supply planes is slowly gathering pace.

I don't think the UK has the influence to tip the balance of opinion, it'll likely have to be Germany with at least US backing and I think that's a way off yet.

Hopefully those willing to provide can prepare so they can act quickly if/when the decision comes.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/02/2023 15:25

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The owner of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused the Russian military leadership of not giving Wagner's men the ammunition they need.

Theatre of the absurd: Shoigu promotes Muradov who just lost a full "elite" brigade in Vuhledar.

[A call was intercepted where ] Wagner mercenaries openly ordering the killing of another Wagner commander

US Ambassador Lynn Tracy is summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry to express her complaints about the growing support for Ukraine and the investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline.
The Russian Foreign Ministry states that in order to de-escalate relations with Russia, the United States must "withdraw US-NATO military and equipment and stop hostile anti-Russian activities."

The Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine recommends that all Ukrainian educational institutions switch to distance learning from February 22 to 24. The call is related to possible risks on the anniversary of the Russian invasion.

🇨🇳Foreign Minister Kuleba said that his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, shared with him the key positions of the "peace plan," which will be studied in detail by the Ukrainian side after receiving the text in full.

⚡️Biden's speech in Poland was postponed by two hours
He is reportedly still meeting in a closed conference with Duda.

CalistoNoSolo · 21/02/2023 16:12

Those Russian troops losses are something else.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/02/2023 16:16

absolutely astonishing isn't it. Day after day.

The rather harsh thought occurs that Russia keeps trumpetting how many Russian soldiers died in WW2. If they handled the conflict as extraordinarily poorly as this one, it's not really a surprise so many died. More efficiency and more value for human life might have meant far fewer losses.

Igotjelly · 21/02/2023 16:21

On the troop loses and Russia’s willingness to throw men at this, Francis Dearnley was speaking on the Telegraph Twitter space today about the fact that Russia sees this war as a moment in history and existential and it’s time the West wakes up and realises it.

MagicFox · 21/02/2023 16:29

The problem with that "existential" word is that it's the one that also justifies Russia's behaviour/escalation. What was it FD was discussing a few weeks ago that we were all talking about? He did a summary and he seemed quite alarmist in some of his views but, curses, my stupid sieve brain has forgotten the specifics!

OP posts:
notimagain · 21/02/2023 16:33

Igotjelly · 21/02/2023 16:21

On the troop loses and Russia’s willingness to throw men at this, Francis Dearnley was speaking on the Telegraph Twitter space today about the fact that Russia sees this war as a moment in history and existential and it’s time the West wakes up and realises it.

Haven't seen the tweet but yes, I've seen various sources recently stating that we (as in "the west") need to recalibrate our thinking when it comes to what the Russians and especially Putin regard as acceptable losses.

This war is existential for Putin and if he can continue to convince the Russian people it's also existential for them this conflict is going to be very lengthy one -- a Ukraine victory is certainly not a sure thing.

Igotjelly · 21/02/2023 16:56

@MagicFox yes it was at the turn of the year, I can’t remember either.

It was on the Twitter space that will turn into the Ukraine the Latest podcast.

He was also saying the West have let. Gina get away too much with playing both sides.

Greenshake · 21/02/2023 17:22

That Biden speech was an absolute corker 👏👏👏

MagicFox · 21/02/2023 17:35

Great speech

OP posts:
MagicFox · 21/02/2023 17:37

It's here from 41:52 https://www.youtube.com/live/KJR-QMRGZPI?feature=share

OP posts:
MagicFox · 21/02/2023 17:39

Sorry 42:52

OP posts:
PerkingFaintly · 21/02/2023 18:53

OFGS I'm such a flake. I'd even switched on the telly and turned to the right channel... then wandered off before before Biden's speech came on.

Memory of a goldfish.

PerkingFaintly · 21/02/2023 18:56

notimagain · 21/02/2023 16:33

Haven't seen the tweet but yes, I've seen various sources recently stating that we (as in "the west") need to recalibrate our thinking when it comes to what the Russians and especially Putin regard as acceptable losses.

This war is existential for Putin and if he can continue to convince the Russian people it's also existential for them this conflict is going to be very lengthy one -- a Ukraine victory is certainly not a sure thing.

In the information war, I'm expecting Putin to use the Sunk Cost Fallacy very effectively on this.

The more Russian blood is spilled, the less able Russia is to back out.

So Russian deaths are a plus for Putin.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 21/02/2023 20:38

Bit late and some now academic but:

Day 360, February 18, 2023. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin broadcast
Posted on 19 February 2023

⚡️ Munich Security Council
– Feygin:
US President Biden is expected to address Putin and RF citizens during his visit to Warsaw. Munich security council’s message foreshadows what that speech might be about: “Moscow lost and needs to surrender.”

– Arestovych:
Russia could have taken a prominent place in the global arena and participated in the formation of a new, fair world order. Putin chose to take RF citizens hostage and started the largest war since WWII. This led to tectonic changes in global security, and Russia is no longer a global power: Macron called for UN security council reform where RU may not remain a permanent member.

Addressing RF citizens, Biden might say that the new, restructured world order could exclude Russia, but RF citizens still have a chance. They must stop the senseless new offensive and mobilization efforts which will be futile and only result in more deaths. The united world is determined to fight RF until RF is defeated.
Germany’s Foreign Affairs minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Germany would not support the proposal of territorial concessions to Ukraine in exchange for peace with RF. To do otherwise is to condone Russia’s aggression, betray the UN charter, and make the people of Ukraine Russia’s prey. RU must withdraw its troops, then peace talks can begin. The West clearly stated its position to support Ukraine until RF’s defeat. It is up to RF and its president to determine the scale of this catastrophe. Russia can still withdraw its troops, extradite war criminals, pay reparations, and return to the global community, or suffer a catastrophic defeat and be excluded from the new world order.

⚡️ China
China’s Xi plans a ‘peace speech’ on the invasion anniversary, which will not be to Putin’s liking. But the speech will be welcomed by a “peace party” beginning to form behind the scenes in Moscow. This “peace party” can use it to build stronger arguments to win the doubters in RU, presenting the positions of both the West and China.

⚡️ Weapons
The UK pledges to be the first to supply long-range missiles. Sunak said the irony is that all NATO weapons and equipment were always intended for Moscow, so these deliveries are strictly within purpose.
While the UK, US, and Germany do not promise jets, they will support any country that will supply – logistics, training, and maintenance.

⚡️ Frontline Update
Air raids: there were four cruise missile strikes, with two intercepted. There were hits, but the power supply wasn’t interrupted. 16 missile strikes today. Despite heavy losses, RU continues with the offensive in Bakhmut, Kupyansk, Lyman, and Avdiivka directions. MoD of RF reported the capture of Dvorichna, a settlement of 650 people. Ukraine denied.

RU tries to push UA away from Svatove-Kreminna highway, advance toward Lyman and Slovyanks, and encircle Bakhmut. Russia withdraws one artillery regiment from Bakhmut due to heavy losses. RU efforts in the Avdiivka-Maryinka direction resulted in no advances.
Vugledar: RU changed troop concentration and direction of attack but failed. Kherson: artillery exchanges with RU targeting civilian objects and UA targeting military aims.

⚡️ Wagner-MoD Conflict
The rift between the RU private military company and the Army is spilling over into broad information space. Wagnerites shot portraits of generals Lapin and Gerasimov (chief of the general staff). Wagner accuses MoD of not supplying them with ammunition and shot a grim video from the morgue to indicate their losses could have been avoided.
As an authoritarian, centralized state, RU will not tolerate such statements from a field commander. RU doesn’t need the Wagner group inflated into an army. Wagner will become a smaller, tamed, more manageable company for specific missions, for example, in CAR. Its leader Prigzhin will not become a political figure.

⚡️ New Ethics in Politics
Ukraine fights for new ethics from this war to form the basis for postwar world order – Andriy Yermak at Munich Security Conference. This new ethics should include three points: 1) injustice should be unprofitable; 2) injustice must be reprehensible; 3) benefit should be determined only by justice.

⚡️ Russian Offensive
Arestovych called it suicide. The new offensive might last 4-6 weeks and result in devastating losses. The time is just as unfavorable as last year, the army is weakened, with inadequate equipment and troops suffering from low morale. There will be waves of cruise missile attacks. They even might take another small village. But ultimately, everyone in the RU government, army, and society will realize that their political goals cannot be reached with military means. Not clear what this realization will lead to.
Three surprises to expect after this “offensive”:
– It will be much smaller than predicted
– It will be shorter than predicted
– It will create a sense of dead-end and senselessness in everyone in Russia
– Russian people may never know the real scale of the losses, but they will all understand this was pointless.
Putin is preparing a speech before the federal assembly on Feb 21; the next day, he will speak at the Luzhniki stadium in front of the state employees. State Duma invited representatives of South Ossetia, Abkhazia and, possibly, Transnistria to its upcoming gathering. Without much success in Ukraine, Putin might take a compensatory measure and announce these territories as new members of the union state. Moldova and Georgia will have to take a stronger position on that. If this measure is taken, long-range missiles might be supplied by not only UK.
It is unlikely Putin will announce general mobilization. Mobilization never stopped, but RU lacks training grounds and equipment to train its troops.

⚡️ #SaveMisha
Feygin: February 20 – a global campaign in support of the ex-president of Georgia, Saakashvili, will occur in multiple capital cities. We need a wide public response to this initiative worldwide. This issue is being discussed in State Department, and President Biden might address the government of Georgia during his press conference in Warsaw. Georgia faces its biggest defeat in foreign policy if it loses its European integration opportunity.
Next stream Tuesday, Feb 21

Mb76 · 21/02/2023 20:44

notimagain · 21/02/2023 12:05

According to many who know lots more about this than I do changing the leader is not going to change anything.....there needs to be a complete change of thinking at an almost national level....

I agree apart from the “almost” bit. But I feel as a nation and a society, they are a very far off this moment of awakening. Sadly. I have little hope that as a nation Russians want change. They are not currently prepared to fight for their own freedom. This is the legacy of 70 years under Soviet regime followed by 30 years of totalitarianism under Putin.

thank you for the updates as always everyone

MissConductUS · 21/02/2023 20:54

The politics is a bit complicated, but I found this encouraging. The lawmaker in question is the Republican chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, so quite an important politician.

US lawmaker in Kyiv: Momentum shifting toward ATACMS, F-16s for Ukraine

MagicFox · 21/02/2023 21:26

Just listened to Ukraine the Latest. Another good podcast. But I really find F Dearnley a bit unbearable. He throws out quite scary comments in a matter of fact way without ever fully expanding on them. I think this was my issue with him before!

Also @Igotjelly well done for trying to inject some sense into that other thread which is awash with RUbots!

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 21/02/2023 21:39

MagicFox · 21/02/2023 21:26

Just listened to Ukraine the Latest. Another good podcast. But I really find F Dearnley a bit unbearable. He throws out quite scary comments in a matter of fact way without ever fully expanding on them. I think this was my issue with him before!

Also @Igotjelly well done for trying to inject some sense into that other thread which is awash with RUbots!

They honestly boil my blood. I suspect too that it’s less bots and more utterly selfish wankers.

Greenshake · 21/02/2023 21:46

Ooh which one is that? I might get stuck in.

Swipe left for the next trending thread