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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
129
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 09/02/2023 22:32

I think they eat tadpoles and tiny fish and frogs in the wild.

@strawberriesarenot all the reports are that you are right :(

Mr Musk is alarmingly not-pro-Ukraine.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 10/02/2023 00:24

Excellent thread from Bad Baltic Takes which references Estonia's latest Foreign Intelligence assessment and expands on its message.

twitter.com/badbaltictakes/status/1623434294055120898?s=12

autumn1610 · 10/02/2023 06:48

Delurking…I will caveat the below that it comes from the daily Mail, not sure why I was really surprised by the numbers stated! Has anyone seen anything from a more credible news outlet? Surely if they have this many ready they would have used them and got it over with by now ?

“Meanwhile, a Ukrainian military official has estimated that Russia already has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armoured vehicles, 810 Soviet-era multiple-rocket-launch systems and 400 fighter jets ready for 'a new wave of attacks' in the coming days.

The official, speaking to Foreign Policy, also estimated that Russia has 300 helicopters and 2,700 artillery systems prepared.”

CalistoNoSolo · 10/02/2023 06:53

Musk is an appalling human being. I hate that he gets to play God like this.

ScrollingLeaves · 10/02/2023 08:17

CalistoNoSolo · Today 06:53
Musk is an appalling human being. I hate that he gets to play God like this.

It may be unreasonable if me, but in my opinion this is an act of sabotage on Ukraine, while we are supporting them, which makes Musk’s action treason.

Igotjelly · 10/02/2023 08:26

It all feels very depressing at the moment doesn't it. I feel like we're right back where we started last year waiting to see what Russia have in store. It all just seems so bleak.

Not sure if anyone say the Andrew Marr video on the other (crazy) thread. Don't want to repost as its really depressing but I generally think he's quite sensible and he's basically saying the war will probably go on for years and that the last few decades of "good times" are over and that dark days are ahead, akin to the worst of the Cold War.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 08:27

@autumn1610 The Russians really do have huge numbers of armaments still, yes.

Which makes the Ukrainian achievement in keeping most of their country free and reclaiming almost half of the occupied land even more incredible.

The Russians are running short on missiles which is why there aren't the same blanket artillery attacks as earlier; they will be saving them for the larger offensive.

Mind you according to the professional assessments this offensive has been under way since end January and it's not made much progress, for the 2nd biggest army in the world. It's taken one town, Soledar, a few villages and Bakhmut is heavily threatened and may well fall but that's it.

TheAustralian · 10/02/2023 08:48

🇺🇦💛💙💛💙🇺🇦
Sending thoughts and prays

notimagain · 10/02/2023 08:56

autumn1610 · 10/02/2023 06:48

Delurking…I will caveat the below that it comes from the daily Mail, not sure why I was really surprised by the numbers stated! Has anyone seen anything from a more credible news outlet? Surely if they have this many ready they would have used them and got it over with by now ?

“Meanwhile, a Ukrainian military official has estimated that Russia already has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armoured vehicles, 810 Soviet-era multiple-rocket-launch systems and 400 fighter jets ready for 'a new wave of attacks' in the coming days.

The official, speaking to Foreign Policy, also estimated that Russia has 300 helicopters and 2,700 artillery systems prepared.”

As @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar says on paper the Russians still have lots of kit, how much of it is actually genuinely operational is another matter.

Greenshake · 10/02/2023 08:58

Igotjelly · 10/02/2023 08:26

It all feels very depressing at the moment doesn't it. I feel like we're right back where we started last year waiting to see what Russia have in store. It all just seems so bleak.

Not sure if anyone say the Andrew Marr video on the other (crazy) thread. Don't want to repost as its really depressing but I generally think he's quite sensible and he's basically saying the war will probably go on for years and that the last few decades of "good times" are over and that dark days are ahead, akin to the worst of the Cold War.

Do we think it could get that far? I have to say that every decision made recently seems to have been with an air of confidence by a large part of the West.

autumn1610 · 10/02/2023 09:13

Igotjelly · 10/02/2023 08:26

It all feels very depressing at the moment doesn't it. I feel like we're right back where we started last year waiting to see what Russia have in store. It all just seems so bleak.

Not sure if anyone say the Andrew Marr video on the other (crazy) thread. Don't want to repost as its really depressing but I generally think he's quite sensible and he's basically saying the war will probably go on for years and that the last few decades of "good times" are over and that dark days are ahead, akin to the worst of the Cold War.

I don’t think I saw it as I started reading the thread and then thought nope I need to remove myself from this, it’s doing no one any favours.

I was a severely anxious state from Feb until I would say May and then I think I got used to this new state, I’m in a better mindset now. Could see that thread wouldn’t be doing me any good, as I can feel the anxiety bubbling away again as it’s coming up to a year and there are more news stories coming out again with doomsday headlines, must stop going on click bait. Glad I didn’t see that one though just your summary sounds depressing.

Igotjelly · 10/02/2023 09:38

Iuliia Mendel
@IuliiaMendel
·
11m
In Moscow, a large-scale rally-concert is being prepared in Luzhniki with putin's participation, the event is scheduled for Feb 22, while the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on Feb 24.
The rally-concert plans to engage 200 thousand russians

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 09:41

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-9-2023
Key Takeaways

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners.

The Kremlin continues to pursue measures to gradually prepare Russia’s defense industrial base for a protracted war in Ukraine.

A prominent Wagner-linked Russian milblogger called for the dismissal of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu over a Russian military uniform procurement scandal.

The Kremlin continues to illustrate that it is unwilling to curb divisive rhetoric from ultranationalist pro-war figures.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and continued offensive operations around Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that the Russian military integrated a Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) volunteer formation into the Russian Armed Forces.

Russian sources claimed that Russian authorities detained a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempting to assassinate Russian occupation officials.

About tanks

Medvedev visited a tank manufacturing plant in Omsk Oblast on February 9 and stated that Russia needs to increase the production of various armaments, including modern tanks, in response to Western military assistance to Ukraine.[6] Dutch open-source group Oryx reported that Russian forces have lost 1,012 destroyed tanks in Ukraine with an additional 546 tanks captured by Ukrainian forces.[7] Oryx reported that these combined losses represent roughly half the tanks that Russian forces committed to Ukraine at the start of the invasion.[8] Fifteen hundred tanks are enough to equip more than 15 tank regiments or brigades or about 150 battalion tactical groups.[9] The Russian military needs to quickly replenish these tank losses to maintain the ability to conduct large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare ahead of a likely increased pace of offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. Medvedev likely framed his calls for increased production as a response to Western military assistance to obscure the fact that substantial military equipment losses are driving the need for increased production. The Kremlin’s efforts to gradually prepare Russia’s defense industrial base for a protracted war while avoiding a wider mobilization of the Russian economy continue to be incompatible with the scale of the war that the Russian military is fighting in Ukraine and the scale of Russian military equipment losses.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
Greenshake · 10/02/2023 09:46

Igotjelly · 10/02/2023 09:38

Iuliia Mendel
@IuliiaMendel
·
11m
In Moscow, a large-scale rally-concert is being prepared in Luzhniki with putin's participation, the event is scheduled for Feb 22, while the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on Feb 24.
The rally-concert plans to engage 200 thousand russians

That will be one grotesque spectacle

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 09:49

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️CNN: Iran modifies (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-iran-modifies-its-drones-supplied-to-russia-to-inflict-maximum-damage-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure) its drones supplied to Russia to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine's energy infrastructure by modifying with poorly fitted layers of dozens of small metal fragments" that scatter over a large radius on impact.

Power Lines: From Ukraine to the World: (pod.link/1643726015) Ep. 11: Rebuilding: From The Ground Up (pod.link/1643726015)
They talk with two economists: Slovakia's former minister of finance Ivan Mikloš and an advisor to the Zelensky administration Tymofiy Mylovanov about how to rebuild cities destroyed by war, like Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mariupol.

⚡️Lithuania to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lithuania-to-provide-ukraine-with-36-air-defense-systems) Ukraine with 36 air defense systems.

⚡️Official: Ukrainian troops arrive (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-ukrainian-troops-arrive-in-belgium-for-training-on-underwater-drones) in Belgium for training on underwater drones.
These underwater systems, capable of finding various threats such as mines and spy equipment, have already been delivered to Ukraine, according to Dedonder.

Ukraine war latest: Zelensky hints at ‘positive decisions’ on fighter jets as Russia intensifies assaults in Donbas

⚡️ Ukraine’s military hits airfield (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-military-hits-airfield-in-russian-occupied-berdiansk-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast) in Russian-occupied Berdiansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
More than 100 Russian troops were killed as a result of the Feb. 8 attack and the Ukrainian army also damaged a warehouse with ammunition, fuel, and lubricants and a radar station

⚡️ Ukraine asks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-asks-netherlands-for-fighter-jets) Netherlands for fighter jets.
Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren confirmed that Ukraine has submitted a request asking the Netherlands to supply F-16 fighter jets, reported NOS news organization.

⚡️ Officials: Russian forces strike (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/officials-russian-forces-strike-critical-infrastructure-in-kharkiv) critical infrastructure in Kharkiv.

⚡️ Zelensky meets (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-meets-with-belgian-king-in-brussels) with Belgian king in Brussels.

⚡️ Bloomberg: TikTok identifies (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-tik-tok-identifies-vast-russian-disinformation-network) vast Russian disinformation network.
TikTok Inc. revealed a Russian disinformation network disseminating propaganda about Moscow’s full-scale war against Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 9.
The network targeted over 100,000 European users over the summer of 2022.

⚡️ Economy Ministry: JP Morgan to help (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/economy-ministry-jp-morgan-to-help-ukraine-attract-investments-for-reconstruction) Ukraine attract investments for reconstruction.

⚡️ Washington Post: US precision targeting (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/washington-post-u-s-precision-targeting-helps-ukraines-rocket-campaigns) helps Ukraine’s rocket campaigns.
Ukrainian forces “almost never launch the advanced weapons without specific coordinates provided by U.S. military personnel,” according to a senior Ukrainian official. [somewhat dangerous announcement imo]

⚡️Air Force: Russia fires air-launched cruise missiles at Ukraine.

⚡️Ukrenergo: Infrastructure hit (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrenergo-infrastructure-hit-across-ukraine) across Ukraine.
Ukrenergo, Ukraine's state-owned transmission system operator, reports damages at several energy infrastructure sites overnight.

⚡️Media: Russia may launch (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-russia-may-launch-up-to-100-missiles-at-ukraine-on-feb-10) up to 100 missiles at Ukraine on Feb. 10.
Russia may launch up to 100 missiles across Ukraine in its latest mass strike on Feb. 10, according to Ukrainian media outlet TSN.ua, citing sources in the Defense Ministry

lower than the last days but still very high. One helicopter.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 09:59

Live: Ukraine Telegram

❗️Two Russian Kalibr missiles attacked Ukrainian territory through the airspace of Moldova and Romania, reports General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces.
It happened at the point where the borders of the three countries cross. In fact, Russia attacked Ukraine through NATO airspace. [timestamp 10:32]

🇫🇮 Most likely, Finland will not send tanks to Ukraine until it officially joins the North Atlantic Alliance.
A NATO official told The Wall Street Journal that even after becoming a member, Helsinki will not be able to send more than a few units to Kyiv.

Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine had intercepted and handed over a Russian plan to destabilize Moldova. According to him, the plan contained information on who, when, and how was going to take control of the country. Moldova confirmed the words of the Ukrainian president.

▶️Interview with Bohdan Krotevych, Tavr - Chief of Staff, First Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment .be

IOC President Thomas Bach reacted harshly to Ukraine's intentions to boycott the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris, even hinting at possible punishment for Ukrainian athletes.

Minsk agreements were initially initiated by the West as a concession to Russia, they could not be implemented without Ukraine losing territories - Zelensky in an interview with Spiegel

autumn1610 · 10/02/2023 10:00

Igotjelly · 10/02/2023 09:38

Iuliia Mendel
@IuliiaMendel
·
11m
In Moscow, a large-scale rally-concert is being prepared in Luzhniki with putin's participation, the event is scheduled for Feb 22, while the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on Feb 24.
The rally-concert plans to engage 200 thousand russians

agree With @Greenshake on this.

The scale of those they are trying to get to attend is similar to the reported injuries and losses. I wish the Russian people would take the opportunity to view the crowds there and wake up and see the shear volume of senseless life’s wasted. However they have will have been told barely anyone has lost their life’s in Ukraine, surely they can’t be that blind to it?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 10:07

that interview link again:

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 10:15

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Zaluzhnyi reported that at 10:18 two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles crossed the state border of Ukraine with the Republic of Moldova. At approximately 10:33 a.m., these missiles crossed Romanian airspace. After that, they again entered the airspace of Ukraine at the crossing point of the borders of the three states.
Missiles were launched from the Black Sea.

The Ukrainian Air Force had the opportunity to shoot down missiles that crossed the borders of Moldova and Romania, — Yuriy Ignat
The speaker of the Air Force noted that the military postponed such a decision because they understood the risks and threats to the population of other states.
He added that it is not the first time that the Russian Federation has staged such provocations, in particular, violations of Moldova's airspace have been recorded before.

❗️In the temporarily occupied Tokmak of the Zaporizhzhia region, local residents complain about the constant stench of corpses in the southeastern part of the city due to the mobile crematorium installed there, — the General Staff
"To hide the number of dead occupiers, the Russian occupiers set up a mobile crematorium on the territory of the Prydniprovska Biotes enterprise in the town of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia region," the evening report says.

Spotify liquidates a legal entity in Russia
The corresponding application for liquidation was filed on February 6, 2023.
The Swedish company announced its withdrawal from Russia in the spring of 2022. Spotify explained the decision by passing a law on fakes, which "endangers employees and users." On April 11, the work of the music service in Russia was terminated.

Orbán published a joint photo with Zelenskyy with the inscription: "Hungary is on the side of the peace."

The World Aquatics Championship, which will be held in 2025, was taken from Russia
The tournament was to be hosted by Kazan. The International Swimming Federation (FINA) decided to move it to Singapore.

Slovakia will receive MANTIS air defense systems from Germany, which will protect the eastern border with Ukraine, – The Guardian

UK may transfer 30 Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Ukraine, – The New York Times
According to the defense intelligence company Janes, this is exactly how many older aircraft the British army has.
The authors of the material note that the role of fighters in the Russian-Ukrainian war may not be so significant, given the widespread use of drones and missiles.
In addition, the training of pilots takes more time and is more difficult than the training of tank crews.
However, even the transfer of a small number of aircraft to Ukraine could be a signal that 14 British Challenger 2 tanks have become – their transfer prompted Germany and the United States to act more decisively and provide Kyiv with the tanks it needs.

The EU will look for places to store all the frozen assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, — Bloomberg
The report, prepared by the EU legal service, states that the whereabouts of no more than $36.4 billion of the frozen $258 billion are known.
The EU's legal service claims that the bloc's legislation allows frozen assets to be invested and used to help Kyiv.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 10:24

Washington Post Telegram

Here is the latest from Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- The European Parliament’s president urged E.U. nations to provide Ukraine warplanes and long-range weapons, among other military equipment it needs. “We know the sacrifice your people have endured for Europe, and we must honor it not only with words, but with actions,” Roberta Metsola said to Zelensky.

  • Zelensky praised the E.U. for weaning itself off Russian fossil fuels in his European Parliament speech.
  • Zelensky also thanked the E.U. for awarding candidate status to Ukraine, saying it “motivated us to be strong and stay the course.” Metsola told Zelensky in her introductory remarks that “Ukraine is Europe, and your nation’s future is in the European Union.”
  • British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said “nothing is off the table” after Zelensky asked for fighter jets in his speech to the British Parliament this week.
  • Estonia’s prime minister proposed a vaccine-like program to purchase military equipment for Ukraine.
  • Air raid alerts rang out across eastern and central Ukraine early Friday. The Kharkiv region came under attack, with about 10 explosions recorded, its governor said.
  • Residents of eastern and southern Ukraine were warned of potential drone attacks early Friday. Dnipropetrovsk military administrator Serhiy Lysak told people to stay away from critical infrastructure facilities.
  • Russia has begun a major offensive in Luhansk centered on Kremmina, the eastern region’s governor, Serhiy Haidai said.

Exclusive: Ukraine’s rocket campaign reliant on U.S. precision targeting, officials say

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/ukraine-himars-rocket-artillery-russia/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian officials say they require coordinates provided or confirmed by the United States and its allies for the vast majority of strikes using its advanced U.S.-provided rocket systems, a previously undisclosed practice that reveals a deeper and more operationally active role for the Pentagon in the war.

The disclosure, confirmed by three senior Ukrainian officials and a senior U.S. official, comes after months of Kyiv’s forces pounding Russian targets — including headquarters, ammunition depots and barracks — on Ukrainian soil with the U.S.-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, and other similar precision-guided weapons such as the M270 multiple-launch rocket system.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 10:50

for number crunchers about battlefield stats:

twitter.com/ragnarbjartur

Igotjelly · 10/02/2023 10:58

Romania have confirmed that the missile didn't reach their airspace and only crossed into Moldova. - Source Sky News

notimagain · 10/02/2023 11:09

Picking up on a few points at random...(well, almost)

Iran modifies ... its drones supplied to Russia to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine's energy infrastructure by modifying with poorly fitted layers of dozens of small metal fragments" that scatter over a large radius on impact.

They've learnt that trick from the west:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphite_bomb

Ukrainian forces “almost never launch the advanced weapons without specific coordinates provided by U.S. military personnel,” according to a senior Ukrainian official. [somewhat dangerous announcement imo]

Yes, here are some things best left unsaid and I hope that sort of statement doesn't lead to certain forms of assistance being withdrawn...

UK may transfer 30 Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Ukraine, – The New York Times
According to the defense intelligence company Janes, this is exactly how many older aircraft the British army has.

I an ex wearer of a light blue uniform I had to stop myself from boarding the outrage bus when I read that because I'll bet my life savings that Janes didn't say that.

Both the staff at Janes and know the exact number of Eurofighters the British Army has is, wait for it, zero...nil, none at all.

Somebody at the New York Times has been a bit careless I'm afraid and for me it's not good look if they want to be regarded as a reliable source of info on any matters of a military nature (@MissConductUS - are they generally OK?).

Anyhow to address the point the Royal Air Force (independent from the both the British Army and the Royal navy since 1st April 1918, no jokes about the date please) is rumoured to have about thirty tranche 1 Typhoons, possibly available actual numbers still being flown/in mothballs/available PDQ is a matter for discussion.

MissConductUS · 10/02/2023 11:30

@notimagain , I do not consider the NYT a reliable source, particularly regarding any military news. They used to be okay, but the strong left-leaning perspective started actively slanting the news about 20 years ago. They assume that anyone who has served in the military is a right-wing barbarian, so they don't hire anyone who understands military issues. I get an occasional free copy on the driveway and find it works well for starting our charcoal grill.