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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
129
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 11:47

There have been some scathing comments about NYT articles in the last months .... guess they are still riding on their old reputation.

Some articles push for 'peace negotiations' without addressing the face that Putin does not keep his word

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 11:49

fact*

notimagain · 10/02/2023 12:10

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar and @MissConductUS

Thanks...

notimagain · 10/02/2023 12:42

Moving on - article here from (the usually very well informed) Justin Bronk at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/giving-raf-typhoons-ukraine-would-be-very-expensive-symbolic-gesture

Lots in there that are Typhoon specific but the section on Basing Requirements mentions issues that would also be a problem for potential F-16 operation.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 13:56

and in a total non-sequitur from that:

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64595317

Russian woman attempts to poison her beautician and steal her identity.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 13:57

(sorry to lower then tone @notimagain )

MissConductUS · 10/02/2023 15:20

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 13:56

and in a total non-sequitur from that:

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64595317

Russian woman attempts to poison her beautician and steal her identity.

We have a lot of Russian-speaking immigrants in NYC. There's a neighborhood called Little Odessa.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Americans_in_New_York_City

Sometimes, things get interesting there.

MissConductUS · 10/02/2023 19:42

The first shipment of Bradleys has arrived in Bremerhaven.

If I had to guess, I'd say they are en route to the Grafenwoehr Training Area

MissConductUS · 10/02/2023 19:50

One clarification. That ship is also unloading HMMWVs (high mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicles) with antitank TOW missile launchers starting at 21 seconds into the recording. That's a very useful addition to the package.

Greenshake · 10/02/2023 20:43

What do we make of the news from the US about this mysterious object being shot down above Alaska? MissConduct ?

MissConductUS · 10/02/2023 21:06

Greenshake · 10/02/2023 20:43

What do we make of the news from the US about this mysterious object being shot down above Alaska? MissConduct ?

All I know is the story that was published in the WSJ earlier this afternoon. More details will be forthcoming over the weekend, I'm sure. A UFO, possibly? 😁

U.S. Shoots Down High-Altitude Object Over Alaska - Object was flying at 40,000 feet and posed threat to civilians, officials say

Updated Feb. 10, 2023 3:37 pm ET

WASHINGTON—The U.S. military downed a “high-altitude object” spotted in the sky over Alaska, the White House said Friday, marking at least the second time in less than a week the Biden administration took action to protect the skies over the U.S. airspace.

The U.S. couldn’t say who owned the object, but a White House official said it didn’t appear to have a sophisticated capacity to maneuver and appeared to be unmanned. The U.S. planned to recover the debris, which landed on frozen water in northeastern Alaska. That location could “make it easier for us to try to recover some of the debris,” John Kirby, a White House National Security Council spokesman, told reporters.

The U.S. first learned about the object Thursday night, Mr. Kirby said. The U.S. hadn’t attempted to reach out to China, Mr. Kirby said, as they did last week when a suspected Chinese spy balloon was spotted traveling across the U.S.

The object was flying at an altitude of 40,000 feet and posed a “reasonable threat to the safety of civilians,” Mr. Kirby said. The suspected Chinese spy balloon had been flying at roughly 60,000 feet.

In the U.S., the Federal Aviation Administration monitors and controls airspace up to 60,000 feet for commercial and military traffic. Broad international agreement exists that the airspace under 60,000 feet is the dominion of the nation that controls the ground below it.

The military downed the object in U.S. territorial waters at the recommendation of President Biden, Mr. Kirby said. Mr. Biden was briefed on the matter Thursday night and gave the order to shoot down the object on Friday morning.

A fighter aircraft conducted two flights—one on Thursday and another earlier Friday—to assess the object. The object was downed at 1:45 p.m. ET on Friday, Pentagon spokesman Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said. It entered U.S. airspace on Thursday, he said.

The Pentagon said Air Force aircraft were over the recovery site on Friday. Tracking site Flightradar24 showed an Air Force HC-130J aircraft flying offshore around an area northeast of Prudhoe Bay.

Mr. Kirby said the object was about the size of a car, smaller than the suspected Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. downed on Feb. 4. The balloon was about 200 feet long and carried a payload roughly the size of a jetliner, Pentagon officials said.

MMBaranova · 10/02/2023 22:30

I'm keeping my eye on developments in Moldova following the government resigning.

I suppose I should be interested in Chinese balloons across America but it is more a head-scratcher than anything else.

Igotjelly · 10/02/2023 22:34

MMBaranova · 10/02/2023 22:30

I'm keeping my eye on developments in Moldova following the government resigning.

I suppose I should be interested in Chinese balloons across America but it is more a head-scratcher than anything else.

Yes the situation in Moldova is very odd.

blueshoes · 10/02/2023 23:38

MissConductUS · 10/02/2023 19:42

The first shipment of Bradleys has arrived in Bremerhaven.

If I had to guess, I'd say they are en route to the Grafenwoehr Training Area

Disappointed with countries in Europe pulling back on Leopard 2 deliveries, so it is particularly reassuring to see Bradleys and HMMWVs already en route from US.

Praying that Ukraine gets heavy weapons and fast training to counter whatever offensive Russia has in mind.

blueshoes · 10/02/2023 23:41

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/02/2023 13:56

and in a total non-sequitur from that:

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64595317

Russian woman attempts to poison her beautician and steal her identity.

What is particularly twisted is that to stage a suicide the Russian women dresses her unconscious victim in lacy lingerie. Disturbing thought.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 10:52

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Key Takeaways

Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine.

Russian missile overflights of NATO territory are highly unlikely to prompt an escalation, and ISW continues to assess with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to risk a direct conflict with NATO.

Recent footage of a failed Russian assault near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast has become the next point of neuralgia in the Russian information space and demonstrated the systemic poor training of Russian mobilized personnel.

Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and around Kreminna.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas as well as in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces reportedly conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian authorities are likely placing restrictions on movement in and out of Russia to support crypto-mobilization efforts.

Russian officials and occupation authorities are intensifying measures to integrate children in occupied territories using government-funded civic organizations.

[of note:]
Milbloggers latched onto the footage to launch several critiques of Russian military leadership..... ...Footage shows these Russian forces [ around Vuhledar] engaging in highly dysfunctional tactics that are far more indicative of the fact that the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is likely comprised of poorly trained mobilized personnel than of poor command.[10] Russian milbloggers likely blamed Russian commanders to downplay the fact that the systemic poor training of Russian mobilized personnel will likely continue to result in similar tactical failures throughout Ukraine. .....
..Russian milbloggers have routinely accused Russian commanders of being responsible for tactical failures throughout the war, likely to shift the overall Russian military failure in Ukraine from the Russian military as an institution onto individuals...

[what comes out of this to me is the blame culture again - heavy on emotion and light on analysis of what would actually improve effectiveness. Long may this last].

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 11:04

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Energy minister (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/energy-minister-russias-feb-10-mass-strike-hits-energy-infrastructure-in-6-oblasts): Russia’s Feb. 10 mass strike hits energy infrastructure in 6 oblasts.

⚡️ Putin to address Russian parliament before one-year anniversary (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/putin-to-address-russian-parliament-before-one-year-anniversary-of-invasion-of-ukraine) of invasion of Ukraine, on Feb. 21.

⚡️ Air Force: Ukraine downs (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-ukraine-downs-61-out-of-71-missiles-launched-on-feb-10) 61 out of 71 missiles launched on Feb. 10.
Russia launched Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles using eight Tu-95 strategic bombers, the military said. Also, it attacked Ukraine with Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea.

Belarus Weekly: Minsk, Moscow plummet in latest Democracy Index (kyivindependent.com/regional/belarus-weekly-russian-jets-remain-in-belarus-after-completion-joint-exercises)
Belarus takes an unsurprising hit to its Democracy Index, published by The Economist Group, placing 153rd out of 167 countries.

Russian military aircraft remain in Belarus after finishing announced joint flight exercises in what is likely an effort by Moscow to bolster its forces in the country.

Ukraine retrieves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-retrieves-bodies-of-61-fallen-soldiers) bodies of 61 fallen soldiers.

⚡️Switzerland rejects (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/switzerland-rejects-spains-request-for-re-export-of-anti-aircraft-guns-to-ukraine) Spain’s request to re-export anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine.
The Swiss government has not allowed Spain to transfer Swiss-made anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine, Reuters reported on Feb. 10.
Madrid asked Switzerland to permit the re-export of its two 35-mm anti-aircraft guns to Kyiv in January [fucking hell, Switzerland!]

kyivindependent.com/culture/ukrainian-filmmakers-center-resilience-horrors-of-war-at-sundance-film-festival
Ukrainian filmmakers center resilience, horrors of war at Sundance Film Festival

⚡️IAEA: Russian mass attack on Ukraine causes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/iaea-russian-feb-10-mass-attack-on-ukraine-causes-shutdown-of-khmelnytskyi-plants-reactor-unit) shutdown of nuclear reactor.
The instability in Ukraine's power grid, caused by Russia's large-scale missile strike on Feb. 10, led to the shutdown of one of the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant's reactors, according to Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

⚡️ Media: Slovakia to consider (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/media-slovakia-to-consider-delivering-mi-g-29-jets-to-ukraine) delivering MiG-29 jets to Ukraine.

⚡️ Retired US general: Jets could help (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/retired-us-general-jets-could-help-ukraine-win-within-year) Ukraine win within year.
Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army Europe, told Deutsche Welle that the West should supply Ukraine with fighter jets as the planes could contribute to Ukraine’s victory within a year. [@notimagain what do you make of this? ]

⚡️AP: UN draft resolution (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ap-un-draft-resolution-calls-for-peace-ensuring-ukraines-sovereignty-independence-unity-territorial-integrity) calls for peace ensuring Ukraine’s ‘sovereignty, independence, unity, territorial integrity.’
The emergency session of the General Assembly on Ukraine will commence on the afternoon of Feb. 22,

⚡️Russia conducts (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-conducts-4-air-strikes-on-snake-island-overnight) 4 air strikes on Snake Island overnight.

Jesus! 1140 Russians dead! 19 artillery systems and 27 drones too.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 11:17

Live: Ukraine Telegram

In Brussels, Zelensky held talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and invited him to visit Kyiv - Hungarian publication Népszava.

The Romanian Defense Ministry officially stated that the Russian missile did not enter the country's airspace. However, air force systems spotted the missiles in the sky over Moldova, 35 kilometers from the Romanian border, launched from ships near Crimea.

Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigns
"If the government had as much support at home in Moldova as it does in the EU, in Brussels, we would have achieved much more," she said. According to Gavrila, Moldova is entering a new phase based on security
This happened against the backdrop of information from Ukrainian and Moldovan intelligence that Russia was preparing to destabilize the country.

Italian Prime Minister confirms sending SAMP-T systems to Ukraine together with France - ANSA.

A group of 35 countries, including the United States, Germany, France, Britain and Japan, have agreed to demand the banning of Russian and Belarusian athletes from the 2024 Olympic Games, Lithuania's sports minister said.

Biden plans to visit Poland on February 20-22. He is expected to meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda and other leaders from the region.

Russians are actively discharging water from the Kakhovka reservoir. They have opened the floodgates at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. NPR published satellite images of the dam, which shows how fast the water is flowing out.
On February 6, the Zaporizhzhia Regional State Administration reported that this threatens a catastrophe at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. If the water level continues to fall, the nuclear reactors will not be able to receive water for cooling.

John Kirby, Strategic Communications Coordinator for the National Security Council, said that any NATO member state could independently provide Ukraine with Western-style fighter jets without US permission.

❗️2 MEPs detained in Italy and Brussels
Both politicians are accused of receiving benefits from "third countries" to influence decisions in the European Union.

The Royal Canadian Mint has issued a silver coin in the shape of a Ukrainian Easter egg made in the style of Trypillian art. The collection of 7,500 coins was sold out in one day. The money will be used to provide humanitarian support to Ukraine. [is that hte queen on there still?!]

Ukrainian woman and her 4-year-old son rescued from rubble in Türkiye - CNN Turk. It is now known that the health of the mother and son is satisfactory

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 11:28

Why are tanks so important in warfare? And what makes the German Leopard 2 so special? What conditions need to be fulfilled by Ukraine and also its international partners to ensure that these tanks are able to unleash their full potential?

To answer these questions, we have invited our first-ever guest on Talking Tactics, Wolfgang Schneider. He is a retired Colonel who served 41 years as an officer in the Tank Divisions of the German army. He is also a military historian and the author of multiple books.

He was personally involved in the testing and development, operational conceptualization, and modernization of the Leopard 2. He was also trained on the US- M1 Abrams, The British Challenger 2, the French Leclerc, and the Israeli Merkava Battle tank. He also has experience with the Soviet T-72, T-64B, T-80U.

Full video:

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 11:30

UNITED24 Media Telegram

🛩 Ukrainian pilots are undergoing training on Western planes, which will be handed over in the near future
The Ambassador of Ukraine to Great Britain, Vadym Prystaiko, stated this on the air of the national telethon.

The Pentagon calls on Congress to restore funding for two top-secret programs in Ukraine, — The Washington Post
If approved, it would allow US special operations forces to use Ukrainian operatives to monitor Russian movements and counter disinformation.

Poland may close new checkpoints on the border with Belarus, — Prime Minister Morawiecki
It will be recalled that earlier Poland blocked the largest checkpoint on the border with Belarus in the interests of the country's security.

Venislavsky made it clear that Ukraine is working on the production of its own long-range missiles

⚡️ Due to Russia's strikes, Ukraine lost 44% of its nuclear generation and three quarters of TPPs, — Shmyhal

USAID allocates $60 million to strengthen Ukraine's cybersecurity

On Friday, a second group of rescuers from Ukraine arrived in Türkiye, — the Voice of America
Ukrainian rescuers in Türkiye work in shifts of 6 hours, and the most difficult thing during work is the psychological aspect

From today, the Russians officially turned off the mobile Internet in the captured part of Luhansk region, — Luhansk Regional State Administration
In addition, the Russians began to check the mobile phones of schoolchildren every day for the presence of any content related to Ukraine.

I hope that Germany will be able to hand over 80 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine by the end of March, — Chancellor Olaf Scholz after the EU summit in Brussels

Queen of the Netherlands Maxima wore a Ukrainian embroidered dress 💙💛
The Royal Family of the Netherlands arrived in Saba as part of a Caribbean tour. For this visit, the queen chose an embroidered "Ocean" dress from a Ukrainian brand.

No, the photo is not an anthill...
The consequences of the battles near Vuhledar from a satellite image.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 11:34

Zelenskyy after the Brussels/EU meetings:

This week I said many words of gratitude to our allies and partners – everyone who helps us. And now I want to say words of gratitude to you, Ukrainians.

It is always an honor for me to represent Ukraine, and I am proud of our beautiful and strong people. You have heard and seen how Ukraine is welcomed. It's what we all did together. It's how you are welcomed.

I'm proud of Ukrainian courage. I'm proud of Ukrainian resilience. I'm proud of Ukrainian effectiveness. I'm proud of all of you who fight and work for our country! Who supports the front and the state. Thanks to all of you!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 11:49

Washington Post Telegram

Russia ousts director of elite museum as Kremlin demands patriotic art

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/russia-tretyakov-gallery-director-ousted/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)Russia has ousted the longtime director of the Tretyakov Gallery in Moscow, one of the world’s most famous art museums, just days after Russia’s Culture Ministry demanded that she prove the museum’s prestigious collection was “in line with spiritual and moral values.”

The Tretyakov’s director since 2015, Zelfira Tregulova, has been replaced by the daughter of a senior official in the FSB, Russia’s Federal Security Service.

The new director, Yelena Pronicheva, has little experience in fine art, and her appointment appeared to be the latest move to force Russian artists and cultural institutions to conform with the Kremlin’s increasingly conservative vision for the country.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/02/2023 18:15

Thread by Chris_O, who is always outstanding

/ Russian politicians are hoping that Vladimir Putin will announce his plans for the end of the war in Ukraine. They want him to achieve a quick victory this year, with no further mobilisation and no closing of Russia's borders to block those attempting to flee the country. ⬇️ Image
2/ The independent Russian media outlet 'We can explain' (MO) has been interviewing deputies about their expectations for Putin's next annual national address on 21 February. It's widely expected to be about his plans for the war as it enters its second year. Translation follows:
3/ The Duma deputies interviewed by MO agree that the military operation should be completed as early as this year and expect the president's message to at least outline the objectives of the war.
4/ "The main thing is to understand the development of the special military operation before the completion of the set tasks.
5/ There are currently no conditions for how the special military operation will end, but I hope to hear them," says Russian Communist Party deputy Aleksandr Yushchenko. Image
6/ "Steps will be voiced to resolve the situation through [an agreement with] NATO: obviously nothing depends on Kyiv – everything depends on Washington.
7/ For Washington, we have a mechanism that has worked for 60 years without interruption – nuclear deterrence," United Russia's Yevgeny Fedorov shares his expectations and prescriptions. Image
8/ He is confident that ending the war will not require announcing a new wave of mobilisation and closing the borders: "We should already be planning the end of the military operation, and for that we need to include the mechanism of deterrence with nuclear weapons.
9/ Any action on Ukrainian territory will not lead to the end of the military conflict."
10/ As a result of the Address, the deputy expects urgent consideration of draft laws to adjust Russia's course, including the cancellation of the Yeltsin-era decisions on mutual non-targeting of nuclear missiles [against the United States].
11/ Right-wing politician Nikolai Novichkov [of the 'A Just Russia – For Truth' party] is also confident that Putin will not announce a new mobilisation. But there will be no word on ending the war either. Image
12/ "I am absolutely sure that there can be no talk of any unilateral termination of the special military operation by Russia. We are ready to negotiate on our terms. The key to peace in Ukraine is in the hands of the West.
13/ As soon as it stops pumping weapons to the Kyiv regime, peace in Ukraine will come very quickly. We are going for victory," Novichkov concludes.
14/ The delivery of the Address at Gostiny Dvor [a former department store in Moscow, now used as an events venue], where the United Russia party congresses are held, not the Kremlin, is a sign, says Communist deputy Sergei Obukhov. Image
15/ [He says] it will be something like an All-Belarusian People's Assembly, with a direct appeal to the people.
16/ It's no coincidence that the communication with the people (or rather, as "MO" found out, with a paid crowd) will continue at the Luzhniki Stadium [on 22 February, the day after the speech].
17/ "I think the message will be in the same tone as the New Year greetings. We will certainly talk about mobilising the economy and all the measures that should support it," Senator Lyudmila Narusova told MO. Image
18/ It was she who in March last year spoke about significant losses among conscript soldiers with whom, she said, contracts had been signed before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and who were subsequently sent to the war zone. /end

Greenshake · 11/02/2023 18:44

Thank you Ducks, that was an interesting read

MissConductUS · 11/02/2023 18:46

Russian politicians are hoping that Vladimir Putin will announce his plans for the end of the war in Ukraine. They want him to achieve a quick victory this year, with no further mobilisation and no closing of Russia's borders to block those attempting to flee the country.

I wonder if they want a pony and a visit from the Easter bunny as well.

Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russia cannot conduct a large-scale offensive.

Russia Too Depleted for Big Offensive on War Anniversary: Ukraine Official

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