I won't be able to follow the hearing this week and I'm going to have limited internet access. So, some quick thoughts.
Sandie needs to show that the RCN refused to support her and that this has adversely affected her. She does not need to prove that the refusal was for unlawful reasons (presumably her gender critical views, either directly or indirectly), but she does need to make a prima facie case that it was.
Assuming she can do that, which seems likely, RCN needs to show that their failure to support her was on valid legal grounds. They may, for example, be able to justify their failure to support her if they can show that they had received legal advice that the case was not winnable.
My view is that the RCN has published plenty of material showing that it promotes gender self-id principles. There seems to be little evidence that they consider the impact on their female members or patients. There also seems to be a consistent pattern of RCN refusing to support female members objecting to trans-identifying males using the female changing rooms. I therefore think Sandie should win, but that is without seeing what evidence will be presented or hearing the witnesses.
I think the biggest question for me at this stage is whether the tribunal will think the timing is significant. FWS was decided in April 2025, over a year after Sandie's problems with Fife started and several months after RCN had rejected her request for legal assistance. It is possible the tribunal will conclude that it was reasonable for RCN and/or its legal advisers to think her case was not winnable prior to FWS and that it was this rather than discrimination against members with GC views that led to them refusing support. However, I hope that, even if there is evidence that RCN did not think the case was winnable, the tribunal will conclude that this was due to anti-GC bias by RCN or its advisers.