Any clues what sort of winter we are going to have?

[thenightsky]

I retired this summer. I'm looking forward to not having to make my way to work on icy roads at 8am. But I still need to get out and about. Are there any long-range forecasts that are reliable?

[notsomanky]

First frost of the autumn here.

The boys opted to wear gloves with their short sleeve shirts and lightweight school blazers, so it must be cold.

When I hung out washing at 7am the grass crunched under my feet, and DH is grateful he is WFH today - no need to scrape the windscreen!

Its been about 10 years since we had a cold/snowy winter - definitely over due one, although the Manchester snow shield will be in operation I'm sure......

Gorgeous, clear, sunny, and cold hear this morning!

[Whatthefoxgoingon]

Weather forecast says will will dip to zero degrees on Sunday in London. Brrr!

[GloriaSmud]

'Tis indeed looking chilly for the next week or so, with frosts at night and temperatures for the south, only just managing to get into double figures on some days next week. Could be wintry showers for the tops of Scottish/Welsh mountains as well.

As for forecasts ~ Netweather's Santa shaker is back for another year!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It does look pretty chilly going into next week. brrr....

[Perihelion]

Been chilly in Edinburgh for the last week. Some frosty mornings and cold wind. Lovely blue skies too. Am happy to be back in my proper winter coat

'mon the snow!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

We have a very dry prolonged spell showing on the cards at present. Although it will get a little milder into Tuesday, the rest of November looks pretty cold and dry. Half way through the month and we don’t seem to be following the path that the met office thought would be the most likely scenario for Nov-Jan.

[GloriaSmud]

Guardian report here saying that tonight could be the coldest night of the Autumn. And netweather mention here, the cold that could be on the way for later this month.

I have my ice scraper at the ready for tomorrow morning!

[christmaspudding1]

hi,what did the met predict kitten?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

more likely to be wetter and warmer than average. They do it by percentage change of it falling into different categories. It doesn’t mean they were wrong, because a 30% chance of being very mild and wet means 70% not, even if that’s the highest percentage for any of the categories iyswim.

[Delatron]

Got all excited when I read the Mail online (I know I shouldn't!). 'First snow of the year to fall in southern Britain this weekend' it says...So I check all forecasts and they all say double figure temperatures. I swear they just make it up.
Assuming this 'prolonged cold snap' being reported is rubbish too?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

effin mail, they’ve on,y gone and jinxed us all now.

There maybe a little bit of snowy stuff on northern hills next weekend and there may possibly be some wintry showers on hills in the southern half of the uk early next week.

It does look pretty cold into early december at present.

[NapQueen]

There is most definetly a cold snap my way today. Even my Shirehorse like mother refused to go out in it.

[GherkinSnatch]

Ah ha! This might be the place to ask. OYBBK - have you come across the Weather Without Technology forecasts on your travels? Apparently the guy who does them has been doing it for 40 years with around 90% accuracy. His prediction is for a long, harsh winter.

www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf

[christmaspudding1]

Colder the better,but I'm far far south and last time was proper cold that I remember was 6-7yrs ago

[christmaspudding1]

I also read the mail headline about the snow in the South and couldn't find it

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I have gherkin and I would absolutely love to know where the 90% claim of accuracy comes from and what methodology is used to evaluate that because I’m afraid I’ve not been too impressed with previous forecasts I’ve read.i He could of course be right this season, or he may not be, I couldn’t tell you either way as I don’t do long term forecasting.

[GherkinSnatch]

I suspect the 90% accuracy is coming from his own record keeping. I suppose when the style of forecast is vaguer, it wouldn't be so difficult t get that sort of accuracy compared to "Snow in this town on this exact date".

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

If you look at his autumn forecast, which already apologises for things that were wrong, he then predicts a stormy period to 13th November.
It’s not stormy. weatherwithout technology autumn

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

x-post, that is very true gherkin.

[Delatron]

christmaspudding1 yes when I went back to read it again it had gone! Probably as it was inacurate for a change!
Hoping for some snow this year it's been about 6 years since we had a good covering on the South I'm sure. Lots of talk of the polar vortex again? Though I'm sure last year we had the same predictions and it was boringly mild most of the time. My kids got an amazing sledge for Christmas 5 years ago, they've never used it!

[Whatthefoxgoingon]

A snowy Christmas in London is like asking Santa for a Christmas miracle

(Please Santa!)

[lettuceWrap]

We had a flurry of snow today (coastal, rural Fife). It’s been pretty chilly the last few days.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5076711/False-widow-spiders-crawling-UK-homes-escape-cold.html offensive link alert, sorry!

[christmaspudding1]

Delatron Dorset coast here

seriously when we were kids we had a proper sledge made metal runners the lot 30yrs ago,i have inherited it for years and used it twice in the last 12yrs

[Delatron]

It is disappointing isn't it chrismaspudding1?
I know snow can be disruptive and some people hate it but I love it (if I'm not trying to get somewhere, this country can't cope with a few inches)

I grew up in Yorkshire where we regularly had to dig our way to school! Be nice to have some down South this year.