Any clues what sort of winter we are going to have?

[thenightsky]

I retired this summer. I'm looking forward to not having to make my way to work on icy roads at 8am. But I still need to get out and about. Are there any long-range forecasts that are reliable?

[GloriaSmud]

And if you like your snowy Christmas scenes, Rovaniemi is the place to look at the moment!

[GloriaSmud]

Light snow at Braemar this morning.
Looks like it's going to be a mildish week for most of the UK before turning cold again from the weekend onwards.

[Veronicat]

It was bloody cold here this morning!

[MakeMisogynyAHateCrime]

Would love a truly cold snap with a spot of snow.

[GloriaSmud]

I would also like snow ~ I would love another month like December 2010, when it was freezing most of the month, with temperatures barely making it to above 0C. The snow waited until the 1st day of DDs Christmas holidays and we woke up to a blanket of it, which stayed on the ground for Christmas Day a few days later

Interesting blog entry here from Jo Farrow on Netweather about the chances of snow and netweather have their latest Christmas forecast here.

[BlackeyedSusan]

we had a lot of snow when dd was in her pushchair.
we had two lots of snow when she was in nursery.
we had a lot of snow when she was in reception. (killed my tomatoes on the windowsil with the minus 12 overnight.)

we had a snow day before the old head left. (every other bloody school put out their notification the night before, ours left it til the morning so I still had to get up to check) and the poor sods who had to arrange child care were stuffed.

last year we had some graupel (?) that melted by play time
the year before we got some soggy snow up at my mums but nothing settled here.

children are most disgruntled.

[christmaspudding1]

i know sighhhhhhhhhh

[Delatron]

It is disappointing isn't it chrismaspudding1?
I know snow can be disruptive and some people hate it but I love it (if I'm not trying to get somewhere, this country can't cope with a few inches)

I grew up in Yorkshire where we regularly had to dig our way to school! Be nice to have some down South this year.

[christmaspudding1]

Delatron Dorset coast here

seriously when we were kids we had a proper sledge made metal runners the lot 30yrs ago,i have inherited it for years and used it twice in the last 12yrs

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5076711/False-widow-spiders-crawling-UK-homes-escape-cold.html offensive link alert, sorry!

[lettuceWrap]

We had a flurry of snow today (coastal, rural Fife). It’s been pretty chilly the last few days.

[Whatthefoxgoingon]

A snowy Christmas in London is like asking Santa for a Christmas miracle

(Please Santa!)

[Delatron]

christmaspudding1 yes when I went back to read it again it had gone! Probably as it was inacurate for a change!
Hoping for some snow this year it's been about 6 years since we had a good covering on the South I'm sure. Lots of talk of the polar vortex again? Though I'm sure last year we had the same predictions and it was boringly mild most of the time. My kids got an amazing sledge for Christmas 5 years ago, they've never used it!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

x-post, that is very true gherkin.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

If you look at his autumn forecast, which already apologises for things that were wrong, he then predicts a stormy period to 13th November.
It’s not stormy. weatherwithout technology autumn

[GherkinSnatch]

I suspect the 90% accuracy is coming from his own record keeping. I suppose when the style of forecast is vaguer, it wouldn't be so difficult t get that sort of accuracy compared to "Snow in this town on this exact date".

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I have gherkin and I would absolutely love to know where the 90% claim of accuracy comes from and what methodology is used to evaluate that because I’m afraid I’ve not been too impressed with previous forecasts I’ve read.i He could of course be right this season, or he may not be, I couldn’t tell you either way as I don’t do long term forecasting.

[christmaspudding1]

I also read the mail headline about the snow in the South and couldn't find it

[christmaspudding1]

Colder the better,but I'm far far south and last time was proper cold that I remember was 6-7yrs ago

[GherkinSnatch]

Ah ha! This might be the place to ask. OYBBK - have you come across the Weather Without Technology forecasts on your travels? Apparently the guy who does them has been doing it for 40 years with around 90% accuracy. His prediction is for a long, harsh winter.

www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf

[NapQueen]

There is most definetly a cold snap my way today. Even my Shirehorse like mother refused to go out in it.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

effin mail, they’ve on,y gone and jinxed us all now.

There maybe a little bit of snowy stuff on northern hills next weekend and there may possibly be some wintry showers on hills in the southern half of the uk early next week.

It does look pretty cold into early december at present.

[Delatron]

Got all excited when I read the Mail online (I know I shouldn't!). 'First snow of the year to fall in southern Britain this weekend' it says...So I check all forecasts and they all say double figure temperatures. I swear they just make it up.
Assuming this 'prolonged cold snap' being reported is rubbish too?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

more likely to be wetter and warmer than average. They do it by percentage change of it falling into different categories. It doesn’t mean they were wrong, because a 30% chance of being very mild and wet means 70% not, even if that’s the highest percentage for any of the categories iyswim.

[christmaspudding1]

hi,what did the met predict kitten?