Latest El Niño forecast is up.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

here We are currently in an El Niño and there is 80% probability of El Niño lasting into early Spring next year. It looks as though it will be a strong one. There is some speculation that it may be the strongest on record here.

It doesn't necessarily mean that we are going to get a super cold winter. Two out of the last three strong El Niños were not. 82/83 was an unremarkable winter. 97/98 was notable both for its warmth and its storminess. 2009/10 was bitingly cold though. The effect on the climate of the uK by El Niño is quite weak compared to other factors. It may bring a welcome break to the drought in California however.

So at the moment 'it's a watch this space'. I will update through the season when the next forecast comes in.

Does anyone know how the El Nino is unfolding? Summer has been a grey, damp squib. Are we going to head into a bitter winter now? (Not that I'm asking for a long term forecast because I know OYBBK will slap my wrist for that )

It looks to be a strong event still.

1982/83 was not unremarkable. Nit was exceptionally cold.

See para 2
www.withnature.co.uk/countryside/severe_weather.php

Nit should read 'it'

It definitely feels like the summer of 2009 here. At least if the winter is as bad as 2009/2010 DH is working only 45 minutes away and can work from home if needed. That winter he had having to drive up and down the M6/M42/M40.

I would like some snow. We've not had any for a few years now which is unusual up here (North East Scotland).

Welly, they have the dates wrong I believe - 81/82 was severe. 82/83 was not.

Its definitely more autumnal here now. Even for september. Ive changed the kids wardrobes over already!

It looks like the typhoon season in the Pacific is following the expected pattern during an El Nino event.

In light of the recent flooding in the UK I thought this article was interesting and worrying. here