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Original poster

Latest El Niño forecast is up.

36 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 25/07/2015 19:04

here We are currently in an El Niño and there is 80% probability of El Niño lasting into early Spring next year. It looks as though it will be a strong one. There is some speculation that it may be the strongest on record here.

It doesn't necessarily mean that we are going to get a super cold winter. Two out of the last three strong El Niños were not. 82/83 was an unremarkable winter. 97/98 was notable both for its warmth and its storminess. 2009/10 was bitingly cold though. The effect on the climate of the uK by El Niño is quite weak compared to other factors. It may bring a welcome break to the drought in California however.

So at the moment 'it's a watch this space'. I will update through the season when the next forecast comes in.

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Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 25/07/2015 19:06

ps, ignore the express. Whilst one scenario is for a stormy winter, rather than a very cold one (depending on strength and position of the jet stream) as usual it is going completely off the deep end!

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LadySharrowOfGolter · 25/07/2015 19:09

Watching with interest

mankyscotslass · 26/07/2015 09:18

Thanks OYBBK. Flowers

lalamumto3 · 26/07/2015 09:21

Thank you, will watch this

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 26/07/2015 17:42

You are welcome :) its sort of a 'watch this space' post.

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Perihelion · 27/07/2015 19:03

Our Scottish "summer" is behaving like the one we had in 2009.....

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/07/2015 00:19

Interesting Peri.

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SideOrderofChips · 03/08/2015 11:44

I'm really interested in the El Nino phenomenom and the idea of what winter it will bring so i am watching this space

LittleBairn · 03/08/2015 21:26

I came on especially to find out what El Niño has in store for us this winter like peri this Scottish summer wash out and in particularly the dark light reminds me of the Summer before the 09 winter when we had knee deep snow.

Northernlurker · 03/08/2015 21:28

OTW evidently.

digerd · 04/08/2015 07:15

SE.
I have noticed for some months now that the sun had an autumn paleness about it and now at the beginning of August it seems more like October Confused.
Despite the UV levels having been high which is even more confusing.

We desperately need more rain for the flora as some trees are looking on the autumnal colour change already Sad.

TheWoollybacksWife · 04/08/2015 10:09

Digerd I agree about the light looking Autumnal.

I'm looking out of the window this morning and thinking the weather looks like a "starting back at school day" rather than the day after we returned from holiday - DH used to laugh at me (any excuse to get the slow cooker out and put the heating on) as I have said this for a couple of years, but this year he agrees with me. Smile

senua · 04/08/2015 10:16

Yes, I've noticed some trees changing colour already!Shock

GloriaSmud · 04/08/2015 10:19

Woollybacks and digerd ~ I 'get' the changing light thing as well. My next door neighbour comes from a big Irish farming family and he agrees with me, that you can smell/sense the change in seasons weeks before they happen.
Here, we have Autumn-coloured leaved blowing about already. It feels like this year more than ever, Autumn has begun before summer has started and that's with this week (for the midlands and southern areas at least) being one of the best weeks weather-wise that we've had for a while!

SideOrderofChips · 04/08/2015 16:30

Yes i have to admit when i go out to hang the washing out its almost like a 'september washing day' then 'August summer holiday'

We're having on off hot days but nothing major. Certainly not sweltering. It does feel like the summer of 09

ptumbi · 04/08/2015 16:34

KNow what you mean - I've been picking blackberries! Not usually about until Sept at the earliest

Greengardenpixie · 04/08/2015 21:16

Wet and windy today. Just feel like gettting back to sleep and hibernating!!! Definetly more like Autumn :(

Perihelion · 06/08/2015 22:28

Scotland on for the coldest summer since 1972 ( another El Nino year ) although I don't think that winter was notable.

SwedeDreams · 06/08/2015 22:49

Marking my place, I wish there was a link between this and a cold winter. Would very much like some snow this year (London so no chance).

My sympathies are with Scotland- it sounds like it's been a really awful summer.

SideOrderofChips · 07/08/2015 18:20

I would just like a winter that is cold and dry to be honest with you. not wet and mild

ilovechristmas1 · 08/08/2015 15:37

my bedding plants and herbs are looking very sickly

my mint plant has stopped growing and looks like it normally does late september

really need to take some of the bedding plants out,but the garden is going to look bare and horrible

GloriaSmud · 08/08/2015 21:30

Bedding plants not looking too great here either ~ hanging baskets and tubs are better though. The only place where things are doing well is the allotment ~ potatoes have been good and looks like it's going to be a good year for marrows and beans.

SideOrderofChips · 09/08/2015 14:45

its not hitting the temperatures it normally hits here in Jersey. a temperature of 23oC is being considered high when thts normally considered low for the summer

WandaFuca · 10/08/2015 21:52

There's a large, toxic, algae bloom off the west coast of the USA:

www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/news/features/west_coast_algal_bloom/index.cfm

That report doesn't say anything about El Nino, but I wonder if there's a connection?

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 15/08/2015 20:37

Ill have a look at that tomorrow Wanda. back from my hols now :)

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