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Weather

Concerned about the storm at the weekend (east coast please pay attention)

74 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 22/12/2014 13:05

It is early days yet but I am concerned that there is the potential for severe coastal flooding along the east coast from the storm that looks to move in boxing day evening and into Saturday. I really hope I am wrong and I really hope that the models change. There is some inconsistency between the models and so the track and depth of the storm is not pinned down at present. These will both have an impact on the final outcome.

If I lived along vulnerable coastal areas then I would at this point be ensuring that I know where my flood defences are because it will be difficult to sort out over Christmas itself. Those who know me from other threads know that I don't say these things lightly. I don't believe in scaremongering but I do believe in preparation. If Christmas weren't in between now and then I would hold off for another day or two until I was more certain.

Gales or severe gales look likely for some.

Remember that I am an amateur though. met office warnings environment agency flood warnings are the places to check closer to the time. I do apologise hugely if I am worrying anyone and it turns out not to be necessary but as I said I hope I'm wrong and look foolish for sounding the alarm over what is at present is a potential severe event.

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MeanwhileHighAboveTheField · 23/12/2014 10:05

No snow apart from up the mountains at the moment (it has all just melted) but fingers crossed for you :)

OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/12/2014 10:28

nah - just obsessed HoHo!

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nannynick · 23/12/2014 10:38

Cherry - lack of snow at the moment but temp is dropping. It has been mild the last few days, now it is 2-3 degrees. I'm on Eastern side of Cairngorms this xmas.

Tryingtobecalm · 23/12/2014 11:53

Can I pretty please hijack and ask what will happen in herts?

You are a weather legend oybbk!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/12/2014 12:05

Trying at the moment other than windy I'm afraid I dont have that level of information. I know that sounds ridiculous but when we dont even know the vague direction that the low pressure will head, you can see my issue. I will as soon as I have more model consensus give more detail even if I have to sneak away on Christmas day

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Tryingtobecalm · 23/12/2014 13:58

That's ok, I appreciate you taking the time to look, thank you!

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 23/12/2014 20:45

Thanks OYBBK.

I have a feeling I could be in for a fairly bumpy flight on boxing day.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 24/12/2014 08:06

Very brief update as I'm in bed on the ipad and it's much more challenging to do detailed forecasts without my pc. :)

I'm much less worried about the potential for eastern coast flooding. At one point GFS was showing another dec 2013 potential. Now it has come into line with UKMO and ECMWF. Yay :) so whilst I am sorry that I may have alarmed some people, I am also very happy at the way the models have agreed on a less worrying outcome.

this also ramps up snow potential after the centre of the low has gone past you.

It does look like a pretty stormy day on Saturday with gales. Most of the rain looks to actually go through on Friday night, early Saturday morning. After that the temps will drop and by evening it looks like Scotland, northern England and hilly parts of Wales may have seen snow. Later on in the evening central areas of southern England may also see some snow.

The snow won't last, but for those who like to dream of snowy days, GFS shows a snow lovers paradise for the return to school. Don't blink though because I expect it will be gone in the next model run Xmas Grin

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LumpySpacedPrincess · 24/12/2014 08:10

Do we know which direction the low is going to travel yet? Fascinating stuff.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 24/12/2014 08:22

Yes, pretty sure, hence my more certain forecast. NW to SE across the UK.

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LumpySpacedPrincess · 24/12/2014 08:26

I dream of snowy days. Xmas Grin

ShipwreckedAndMerrilyComatose · 24/12/2014 08:39

'Snow lovers paradise' ooh, you tease!! Xmas Grin

ChippingInLovesChristmasLights · 24/12/2014 09:01

Oh. Having just posted about the garage telling me not to put the winter tyres on yet because it was still too warm more likely they're too busy!! I'm now wondering if it was a mistake not insisting. Never mind, what's done is done. None of us have time for that malarkey today! How does that song go... 'slip sliding away, the nearer your destination, the more you're slip sliding awayyyyyy...' Be glad, be very glad, I haven't the inclination to do a video and post it [ fgrin]

ChippingInLovesChristmasLights · 24/12/2014 09:01

Bollocksing ipad Xmas Grin

42notTrendy · 24/12/2014 09:16

Many thanks for the all the Christmas weather info kitten. Have a great Christmas.

Perihelion · 24/12/2014 12:18

Snow and wind warnings for Scotland for Boxing day and Saturday Xmas Grin, oh and ice warnings for today and tomorrow.

Merry Christmas OYBBK and all you other weather lovers Xmas Wink

OhYouBadBadKitten · 24/12/2014 12:34

warnings here
I think they may change the position of the wind warnings or at least add to them tomorrow to bring more of the south into it, especially southern and western coastal areas.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 24/12/2014 12:35

Merry Christmas! Xmas Grin

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Perihelion · 24/12/2014 23:04

Better not change the position of the snow warnings.....[fgin]

ChippingInLovesChristmasLights · 25/12/2014 07:56

Merry Christmas!! Xmas Smile

GloriaSmud · 25/12/2014 08:23

Merry Christmas ~ may everyone see at least a little of the white stuff in the next few days Xmas Smile

OhYouBadBadKitten · 25/12/2014 08:43

Happy Christmas Xmas Smile

The models have not hand let the weekends weather at all well. Not surprising as it seemed such an odd path for a low pressure to take. This mornings model out put takes the low pressure across the middle of the UK heading SE as a much shallower affair. Looks like the high wind warnings will have to move to the south coast and the south is more at risk of snow tomorrow night, especially over the chilterns, but perhaps elsewhere too for. Short time :)

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KenDoddsDadsDog · 25/12/2014 08:50

Thanks Kitten

OhYouBadBadKitten · 25/12/2014 09:09

Ooh, my proof reading seems to be broken this morning Xmas Grin I'm sure you get the gist though!

You are welcome KenDodd!

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Newbiecrafter · 25/12/2014 09:46

Merry Christmas Kitten! You're amazing for doing all these updates. Keeping everything crossed for lots of snow.

Wishing you and all the other lovely weather threaders the very merriest of Christmases!

Xmas Smile