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Original poster

OYBBK Half Term Weather Advice Please!!

69 replies

johnworf · 12/05/2013 18:32

We're off camping on the 25th for the weekend in Worcester. I've looked at Met Check and Met Office and it's unclear whether it'll be showery, sunny or raining. Any idea? I know it's nearly 2 weeks away but as we're under canvas I need to think about what to pack if it goes Pete Tong Smile

OP posts:
digerd · 16/05/2013 06:20

S. Herts

Haven't been out of my thermals yet.
+3 last night and clear sunny sky this morning - the same as last year.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/05/2013 17:42

just about to do an update :)

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/05/2013 17:47

GFS shows high pressure dominating for the first half of the week before getting squeezed out by a complex area of lows.

However even with high pressure, it still looks mostly damp everywhere after a pretty reasonable bank holiday. Temps vary wildly from 20C to 13C. hmm.

Too early to bring in the other models, but eCMWF starts with a very different set up from GFS and the spaghetti plots vary wildly after the 23rd so tbh you can probably throw the models in the bin for the moment.

DameFanny · 16/05/2013 18:28
OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/05/2013 18:46

I know Dame. If it doesnt change I swear I'm going to chop my head off or something! I'm desperate for it to be nice!

DameFanny · 16/05/2013 20:25

A friend was staying in a cabin this week in Wales. She came home early to avoid trenchfoot...

Original poster
johnworf · 16/05/2013 22:17

I'm going to cry. It'll be a wet tent with kids going stir crazy asking to go home......kill me now.

OP posts:
DameFanny · 17/05/2013 17:12

it's a canvas tent, we can set fire to it to warm up.

georgedawes · 18/05/2013 15:01

I need a prediction for 25th, North Derbyshire. Want to throw a party outside but the weather has been atrocious. Please say it will be ok! Doesn't matter if not hot, just not bloody rain would be great.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/05/2013 15:29

George, at the moment there's reasonable chance of it being dry. High pressure builds from the west in all of the models - it's just about coming into to the UKMO range so things may get a bit easier to forecast now, with the 3 main models to look at.

In fact, GFS shows high pressure dominating for that week Shock (pleasedontchangepleasedontchangepleasedontchange) with mostly dry (Scotland gets a bit wet mid week) and warm and lovely. Oh bliss!

georgedawes · 18/05/2013 15:35

Thanks so much. I really hope it is nice, it's my DD's first ever party and she is so excited. And I have no idea what to do with the kids if the weather is bad!! Fingers crossed it is OK.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/05/2013 16:48

You are welcome! It's so nice to be able to type a positive forecast. Give me a nudge closer to the time and I'll try and do an update for you. Will keep updating this thread anyhow!

TheSecondComing · 18/05/2013 16:51

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/05/2013 17:36

TSC at the moment it looks like it will start off quite cool but warming up through the weekend. Perhaps a few showers around. Unfortunately in the latest model run Monday looks wet as the high pressure takes longer to take charge. Grrrr.

TheSecondComing · 18/05/2013 18:18

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

fanoftheinvisibleman · 18/05/2013 19:39

Any chance of Northumberland being dry for any of the week OYBBK?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/05/2013 20:51

Latest GFS gone all horribly wrong so we need to ignore it. Will look again tomorrow.

digerd · 18/05/2013 20:56

I thought it felt milder today, no cold wind, but then I am still in my thermal longjohns, fleece trousers, thermal longleeved vest, cashmere jumper and fleece anorak when walking the dog, but no hood/ gloves or winter boots needed Smile

Original poster
johnworf · 18/05/2013 21:23

Great that someone is going to get some high pressure but this isn't going to be a north/south divide is it? We live in the north but are travelling south (Worcester). I'd hate to leave any good weather at home to go and camp in the wind/rain/snow/ice/frost Hmm

OP posts:
hackneyzoo · 19/05/2013 13:34

Will there be sunshine over Lewes?

Fanof, I'm in Northumberland right now and it's been a steady drizzle for the last 24 hours. ahhh, summer.

travellingwilbury · 19/05/2013 15:03

Another one keeping fingers crossed for a dry week of camping .

poshme · 19/05/2013 18:59

Any ideas whats the likelihood of rain on the south coast (nr Bmouth) for this w/e coming? I've just looked on metcheck and it doesn't look good- is metcheck usually accurate? (Please tell me they're rubbish!) we're camping all w/e...

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/05/2013 20:54

Metcheck uses GFS (without any added human input) which is one of the models I use. Don't put too much on to it yet, there is plenty of time for it to change an do think it will.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 21/05/2013 07:47

Brief look this am. Sorry guys that I'm not able to spend as much time on it as I would usually, just really squished for time at the moment and by the time I sit down my brain has often melted Grin

Sadly it's not a very warm picture. A reasonable few days to start with in terms of warmth (away from the east coast) but then . Even more sadly is the wet :( from Monday it at the moment looks to become wet through the week.
Going to put a bit of a bollocks on my hill walking camping trip :(

DameFanny · 21/05/2013 09:18

Cold on the east coast? :'(

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