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Weather

DH reckons its going to be a very cold Jan/Feb

81 replies

LillethTheCat · 01/01/2013 14:34

Is it true?

I dont know where he's read that, but he reckons we are in for a big freeze in a couple of weeks or so.

I dont know why Im particularly bothered, but I would just like to know.

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GloriaSnow · 05/01/2013 13:16

We've got 11.2C here (Leicester) and I've just spotted some pink tree blossom while we were out shopping. 'Tis all wrong ~ I have new winter boots to wear and DDs have a sledge sitting in the garage waiting to be used!

Netweather though are hinting at the possible change here.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 05/01/2013 20:50

I'm afraid the models are being really irritating now. The latest GFS has backed away from cold in the forecastable future and the ensemble members seem to support that in general. But the ECM is going for cold rather strongly now in 10 days time.
Lets see what tomorrow brings, quite often the ECM is the first model to spot the first signs of change in the weather.

Waswondering · 05/01/2013 22:29

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 05/01/2013 22:58

Oh, better for next weekend! Looking much colder. After that its dodgy territory, the jet stream looks so feeble and wobbly, that I wouldn't like to call whether GFS is correct or not, it's not going to take much to shift it out of the way so whilst it looks rubbish a week on Monday I wouldn't place to much faith in it.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 06/01/2013 09:55

Ok, we'll GFS has lost the cold for the coming weekend but has it back on for the 18th or so onwards and its a humdinger of a chart. If it came off as it stood (and remember how much things change) then there would be a lot of proper snow.

However the chart looks very very different from the ECMWF and there's not so much support from the GFS ensembles, so don't get too excited yet.

LillethTheCat · 06/01/2013 11:19

Thanks for the update Kitten

OP posts:

Sparklingbrook · 06/01/2013 13:12

I really don't want any snow now. It had it's chance over Christmas.

MegGriffin · 06/01/2013 17:19

Watching with interest. I would love some.snow before spring.

mumat39 · 06/01/2013 18:07

Come on snow. You know you want to ;)

We just need a proper winter.

I'm following the snow watch forum and there are lots of people trying not to get too excited in case it's another beast from the east non event. I haven't got a clue what all the jargon means and the particular discussion I'm lurking on was 100 pages so a new one was started. I've read it all and still haven't got a clue

Thanks Kitten. :)

tak1ngchances · 06/01/2013 20:42

GloriaSnow · 06/01/2013 20:46

Some websites seem certain about things cooling down from the middle of this week. Several are giving us in the Midlands a 'high' of 1 or 2C next Sunday, with temperatures struggling to get above that beyond next weekend ~ that will probably all change though as it's a bit far ahead! But here for the moment are what theWeatherOutlook and netweather think.

SpottyBagOfTumble · 06/01/2013 20:48

Also marking place so I can learn from more of kittens explanations!

SunshineOutdoors · 06/01/2013 20:54

We're holidaying in the Yorkshire Dales in feb. always looks beautiful in the snow

mumat39 · 06/01/2013 21:00

Hey Gloria. Love the name change!

xxx

GloriaSnow · 06/01/2013 21:15

It was changed in the hope that there might be some festive snow at Christmas but I guess while there's a chance of the white stuff now, the name can stay!

SpottyBagOfTumble · 06/01/2013 22:02

So the ensembles linked to as the 850hpa temps. As I understand it, the hap temps need to generally be under -5 for snow ,but the 500-1000 hap has to be under 528 dams? (From another page on same site) so, is ther a graph of the expected air pressures?

SpottyBagOfTumble · 06/01/2013 22:20

That would be air pressure at 850hpa!

Just tried to read about jet streams and it did my head in! Must try harder! Lol

SpottyBagOfTumble · 06/01/2013 22:32

Also, why does. A wider scatter of the ensembles mean it is more likely to be cold?

SpottyBagOfTumble · 06/01/2013 22:38

Actually, this is the graph I was looking for, right? www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Then can combine with the ensembles?

SpottyBagOfTumble · 06/01/2013 22:40

An d I have just figured out where the colours come from on the snow risk chart! Duh!

Oh, and sorry everyone for withering on to myself! Ignore me!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 06/01/2013 22:46

Don't worry :) will come back to you tomorrow afternoon.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 07/01/2013 07:47

Well, the trend to colder weather seems to take place towards the end of next weekend according to this mornings models.

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StillSlightlyCrumpled · 07/01/2013 08:02

Watching this thread with a worried face. I'm having my fortieth birthday party the weekend if the 26th, & have friends/ family travelling a long way. Please no snow for the midlands that weekend.

Sparklingbrook · 07/01/2013 08:03

I'm in the Midlands too Still, I will join you in the 'no snow' camp.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 07/01/2013 15:54

My take on it at the moment is that from the weekend it looks like there is going to be a gradual cool down, with some snow/rain coming into the picture. The following weekend is when it might really get going properly. GFS then clears it out far too quickly, but we shall see.

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