OYBBK - any chance of a forecast? (being VERY cheeky!)

[whojamaflip]

Hi there - I know I'm being cheeky but I've gotten myself so confused trying to see what the weather is going to be next weekend

I'm doing the 3 peaks challange and I think we're going to be stopped by the weather

Would you do your weather thang and look at what Ben Nevis is gonna be like Sat 12th between 5pm and 10pm, Sca Fell Sun 13th between 4am and 8am and Snowdon on Sunday between 1 and 5pm!

I would be forever grateful

Will have a look :)

Don't make any safety decisions based on this, as you know, it may well change and the models may be wrong! They do seem to be varying rather in the mid-long term range.
For wind and temp predictions below they apply to low level, so you'll need to factor in mountainess. Weather model used: GFS

At the moment for those dates and times:

Ben Nevis - looks dry. Light winds, not too cold.

Scafell - maybe some light rain or mist/fog. Cold.

Snowdon - dry. Temps not too cold. Light winds.

I'll try and update with any changes. Bump if I forget!

mountain weather service just in case that's one you've not come across.

Ooh can i hijack?

DS2 is off to Shropshire on an outward bound Wednesday 9th-Friday 11th.

OYBBK do I need to pack jumpers or T-Shirts and how near to the top of the case to put the waterproofs?

TIA. Good luck who.

GFS is a global model, isn't it? What are you doing by way of downscaling? I wouldn't want to do a site specific forecast for Ben Nevis from a global model without a lot of additional info and some good downscaling techniques (not actually sure off the top of my head what resolution GFS runs at but guessing 20km plus, so resolvingfeatures at about 80km - not to mention that my -hazy -understanding of this weekend is timing of fronts is problematic). Disclaimer - I'm not a forecaster.

Hence my disclaimer lurcio and link to mws. I think people here understand that I can only give general forecasts and that I'm an amateur.

My career was in computer modelling, so I very well understand the limitations due to grid size. However gfs is the only model which has free output (and hence no copyright issues). You'll find that the weather forecasting companies such as meteogroup, accuweather, weatherunderground etc use GFS for that very reason. I do also look at UKMO and ECMWF, but again the grid sizes are quite coarse. Do you have access to any mesoscale models?

When I look at the output. I can use some of my weather knowledge. Its where the art of forecasting comes in. If there is high pressure, with no fronts that are likely to interact with the topology, then the weather is pretty likely to be calm. If the wind direction is coming off the sea, then there it is quite likely to be cloudy/foggy in the mountains due to the air cooling as it rises. It's obv not that straight forward and I'm simplyfying rather but it does give an indication.

Sparkling will get back to you, dh is getting rather impatient.

Thanks OYBBK.

Looks like a real mix Sparkling! He needs some of everything. Thursday is still looking potentially very wet indeed and I think it could linger into friday but if it clears through on Friday, then at the moment some rather warm temperatures are showing. Layers and waterproofs!

Thanks OYBBK. I did think mixed may be the word. Thursday is their full day there. I think he may need a bigger suitcase.

Bin liners for all the wet clothing!

Good idea OYBBK. Can't wait to tip that out on Friday night. There is indoor stuff to do but the whole point really is the zip wires/abseiling etc. DS is a keen footballer so the rain won't bother him.

OYBBK - any chance of a SUMMER this year?

I am sooooo over this sodding rain.

It's been sunny here all day (Worcestershire) but in the last ten minutes it's gone pitch black.

Cointreau, I wish I could do long range forecasting, but I'm afraid I'd be making it up! I think we need the very persistent Greenland high to bog off, but there are hints of some rather warm weather coming up from the continent next Friday into the south. Hooray!

Oooh, I like the sound of that. Even though it's "hints".

OYBBK

I promise I will not keep blindly on regardless of the conditions on the ground just because you said it was gonna be ok!

At least there is no major snow expected (at the moment!)

I shall keep bumped and thank you again for the info

you are welcome!

new update according to the 00Z output

Ben Nevis - damp (boo hiss)
Scafell - damp (boo hiss)
Snowdon - damp (boo hiss)

Low level temps all look reasonable and winds seem to remain light. Fear not, the models change from run to run and it looks like high pressure will build from the west.

The sun is shining again here today.

You are very lucky sparkling. Damp gloom here.

I have put some washing on OYBBK so that should ensure rain within the hour.

definite boo hiss - its going to be hard enough without being wringing wet as well

still the forecast can change rapidly in the space of a very short time so hopefully by Saturday it will be dry with loads of sun

It can change rapidly!! Maybe tomorrow will bring a better picture

fingers crossed

Ben Nevis - starting dry. Perhaos becoming damp.
Scafell - perhaps dry, if so, possibly Very cold!
Snowdon - possibly just about dry.

Winds remaining light :)