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It's polling day, how many seats do you think the SNP will actually win?

84 replies

Jackieharris · 07/05/2015 06:34

We should know them all except argyll & bute by 5am.

Even Nicola sturgeon is shaking her head at 59.

According to the herald the other day labour are focussing on keeping their big guns in-Murphy, Alexander, Curran and a couple of others I'd never heard of! So I think they will all be fine.

For the lib dems I think Carmichael, Kennedy and swinson will survive.

The Tory seat: I haven't heard much about.

I think if they get 30+ that would be amazing and it's a shame that the media are probably going to label them as failures whatever they get because the polls have been so high. Their record was 12. Anything over 20 would never have been predicted before last year.

I'll take a guess and say 34. I think it won't be an even swing because a lot of seats will depend on where there is an incumbent or not and if the incumbent has been a good local mp.

Weather and turnout will also be factors.

There will also probably be controversy of people discovering they aren't registered to vote under the new system.

As a feminist I also really hope the number of male and female winners is closer to 50% but that's quite optimistic!

What are other mumsnetters' guesses?

OP posts:
Reignbeau · 07/05/2015 21:19

I had a dream the other night that the SNP got 53 seats and it was a labour government at Westminster.

Cloudhowe63 · 07/05/2015 21:29

I have a vision of a removal van outside no.10. Ironing the bunting in anticipation. Wink

roughtyping · 07/05/2015 21:33

beatrice yes sadly it seems the bigger the houses the more LD posters. An awful lot along Milngavie Rd near Asda.

Not that I'm living in the depths of poverty (!) but smaller houses where I am, and many more SNP signs. I am quite worried that she'll stay.

A lot of my family have voted Green!

prettybird · 07/05/2015 22:09

My dad lives in a big house just outside Milngavie Wink. Voted JS last two times, Labour before then (Iraq did for him). Told her to her face when she visited why he wasn't voting for her (her personal voting record, the ConDem Alliance and the way the LibDems had stood with the Tories in BetterTogether). He was happy to tell her why he was voting SNP. He said it appeared like it wasn't the first time she'd heard it. Wink

AgentProvocateur · 07/05/2015 22:11

I believe that Jo S has been a decent enough constituency MP when individuals have had issues. She is being punished for being a Lib Dem (and for banging on about devolved issues in her negative campaigning). She should have resigned from the party after the lady election and become independent. But she's a career politician.

Reignbeau · 07/05/2015 22:21

Exit polls predicting 58!

Janethegirl · 07/05/2015 22:28

58 out of 59, not sure I believe (or want to believe) that result Sad

TwinkieTwinkle · 07/05/2015 23:03

The most depressing exit poll I could imagine. Sad

AgentProvocateur · 07/05/2015 23:10

What time does Jim Murphy lose his seat? I can go to bed happy once I've seen that result Wink

JackSkellington · 08/05/2015 00:01

Wow, just wow... 58 seats will be absolutely amazing. I'm hoping the 1 seat left, if the exit poll is indeed correct, isn't going to Murphy AgentP, I'm another one who will be happy to see him go.

Jackieharris · 08/05/2015 00:44

Well one exit poll says 58 one says 43.

OP posts:
prettybird · 08/05/2015 00:56

Think it's due at 2.30 AP

AgentProvocateur · 08/05/2015 01:08

I'll get the matchsticks out then Wink

Romeyroo · 08/05/2015 05:51

Has JS stayed? I have just got up and LD have one seat. Not sure which one yet
For the avoidance of doubt, my house is teeny, but I am not sure that determines my politics!

Romeyroo · 08/05/2015 05:52

Equally, JS did not grace my doorstep though, so maybe she just went to the big houses

prettybird · 08/05/2015 06:03

Only LibDem is Carmichael.

Romeyroo · 08/05/2015 06:07

Thank youFlowers I am still catching up on what is what.

roughtyping · 08/05/2015 07:55

EastDun is SNP. 56/59! Crazy result, pleased with it. Absolutely gutted for England though.

Jackieharris · 08/05/2015 12:43

And carmichael only survived by 800 votes!

Never heard of the Edinburgh labour guy.

Guess mundell will finally get to be Secretary of State.

OP posts:
chocoluvva · 08/05/2015 13:40

A majority conservative gov't; very disappointing.

GrouchyKiwi · 08/05/2015 13:41

Andrew Neil is a rude man.

GrouchyKiwi · 08/05/2015 13:42

Sorry. Wrong thread.

chocoluvva · 08/05/2015 16:45

Are you referring to him talking over a (female) guest. He'd got the gist of her answer so he just steam rollered her with another question to another guest. I exclaimed to DH at that.

He has form for being rude anyway.

Which thread please btw?

GrouchyKiwi · 08/05/2015 16:59

He just talked over anyone and everyone. It's not a great interview technique and doesn't allow guests to answer questions (I guess the point so he can pretend they dodged everything).

It was meant to go as a thought on the All-through-the-night thread that has "swingometers" in the title!

chocoluvva · 08/05/2015 17:37

Mr Dimbleby was very grumpy - overheard him saying 'For God's Sake', constantly making little critical remarks about the graphics and stats people!

I really enjoyed Andrew Marr and Laura Keunsberg's commentaries.

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