It's polling day, how many seats do you think the SNP will actually win?

[Jackieharris]

We should know them all except argyll & bute by 5am.

Even Nicola sturgeon is shaking her head at 59.

According to the herald the other day labour are focussing on keeping their big guns in-Murphy, Alexander, Curran and a couple of others I'd never heard of! So I think they will all be fine.

For the lib dems I think Carmichael, Kennedy and swinson will survive.

The Tory seat: I haven't heard much about.

I think if they get 30+ that would be amazing and it's a shame that the media are probably going to label them as failures whatever they get because the polls have been so high. Their record was 12. Anything over 20 would never have been predicted before last year.

I'll take a guess and say 34. I think it won't be an even swing because a lot of seats will depend on where there is an incumbent or not and if the incumbent has been a good local mp.

Weather and turnout will also be factors.

There will also probably be controversy of people discovering they aren't registered to vote under the new system.

As a feminist I also really hope the number of male and female winners is closer to 50% but that's quite optimistic!

What are other mumsnetters' guesses?

itsallgoingtobefine, nah, apparently she's worked in PR and marketing (according to her wiki page).

Someone at my work went to school with her and said she was lovely. Nothing against her, I just want LibDems out.

stacey no work for me tomorrow so might try and stay up (though ended up crying last time - the referendum!)

Nothing to stop any party using it surely?

Technically No, but it's now seen as SNP only since they got their gestapo onto it.

'gestapo'?

Rough - I know someone who works with her now and also says she's lovely . But I still wouldn't vote for her party.

I invoke Godwins Law

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

Stacey

I always bet on how long it will take a Nazi comparison to pop up in an SNP thread/discussion.

I'm hoping they might get 50 too. Though I don't mind if they get less if it helps Labour win in some sense - and helps Ed become PM tomorrow!

Basically I want a change and the more radical the better - and with a Green voice too as that's who I'm supporting - and think we need to look to the future

Really like Nicola and trusting her when she says she'll help to get the tories out!

Stacey

DS (who's 11) has been doing the online quizzes and gets Greens every time. He really wishes he could vote!

I'm not an snp fan so hoping it will be a bit like the referendum where the yes campaign was omnipresent but didn't 'win'.

I usually match with the Greens too. If we had gained independence, I think I would have maybe voted for them. Although I do disagree with some of their policies, I don't think we can stop using fossil fuel as quickly as they'd like, for example. And I don't like the idea of an in/out EU referendum, even though I know they oppose leaving the EU.

Everybody gets Green in the online thingies. It's a brilliant social media strategy on their part. Better than the Torygraph tactical voting guide that tells you to vote "anyone but SNP" if you're in any Scottish constituency and regardless of whether it's Tories or Labour you want to keep out of government!

I guess 49.

I think they'll win around 25. I think they've been played a bit by the press, and the Tories of course, to destabilise Labour's position in Scotland.

Hoping it's more like 10 though.

OneMagnum - I like your style. {would do a see you jimmy wink but don't know how... }

I've heard from a few different people that Glasgow's turnout has been very, very low so far.

Maybe will keep the SNP out.

I'll be happy with 30 or more but am going for >40. It would be great to get more than the current Labour cohort.

Although I am cognisant that the anti-Scottish-Labour vote is very vocal and there may be many "undecideds" or quiet Labour voters who will revert to their comfort zone in the privacy of the polling booth (as is their right).

I just hope I don't end up with that feeling of disappointment I had in 1992. Mathematically, the best chance of getting the Tories out if government in Scotland is to vote SNP - the LibDem MPs have only and will only helped prop up the Tories and there are more LibDems and pandas than Tories in Scotland.

www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/writer-mark-millar-hits-out-at-twitter-abuse-after-switching-his-vote-from-snp-to-lab.1430819903

It's not the Scotland I want to live in for sure - I may be paranoid, but this ins't your random nutters, there is an orchestrated campaign such that people are wary of publicly criticising the SNP. I do believe that things have got better under Nicola, but they have a long way to go in my book before I could ever trust them or believe that they aren't in it for their own ends regardless of the cost to the people of Scotland.

pinkje it's [tb wink] without the space

Just testing

I think it will be 36. I have plucked this number from thin air!!

onemagnum Thanks

If the goal of SNP is to kick the Conservatives out (why do all politicians focus on the negative?) then is that not best served in Scotland with us all backing Labour?

They want the Tories back in Westminster as it furthers their cause that we aren't being governed by the party we voted for and hence can go for another referendum while at the same time fucking Labour in Scotland - it's win win for them. All they have done is take every popular that Labour has come out with and claimed it as their own - I know politics is a dirty game but they are playing the dirtiest and using the Scottish people for their own ends. Hate them - just in case anyone didn't gather that

I'm not a Tory but I do actually feel sorry for Ruth Davidson as she is being done by her own party as well as everyone else - she is on a hiding to nothing.

I've heard from a few different people that Glasgow's turnout has been very, very low so far.

Not in Glasgow North at least (in the two polling stations I was in). The folk handing out the ballots reckon numbers are well up. I've never had to queue to get my ballot paper before.... It'll be interesting to see how turnout compares between Scotland and rUK now that we are supposedly politically aware and fired up.

I am in ED and keen to see the back of Jo Swinson. She seems like a pleasant person but she has gone along with every single punitive Coalition policy. I am in a bit of ED that should be fertile territory for JS but most people I know are voting SNP. Polling station wasn't busy though which worries me. Bet all the rich Tories in Bearsden will turn put to give JS a tactical vote.

Rough i also have an 11 year old Green supporting ds.

Curious about JS actually, i was actually wondering if her being on maternity leave had any impact or if it is a LibDem thing. I do read the LibDem stuff (and good grief there is a lot of it) and i don't know what it is offering new